YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 13%. While we have seen much higher from other online companies, it is the highest UKIP score that YouGov have shown so far. All the usual caveats apply: one should never get too excited about a record breaking score as it will almost always be a bit of an outlier. What counts is the underlying trend, and these figures underline the ongoing increase in UKIP support, and indeed the recent modest recovery in YouGov’s Lib Dem support.


595 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 12, UKIP 13”

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  1. PaulCroft from previous thread,

    No l am not the individual you thought l might be (in real life that is ).

  2. Why the regionalism?

    I had some meetings with local councillors from the SE a few years ago. One in particular was very committed to improving the lot of his constituents, whether they had voted for him of not – but there was something more – I came away wondering what this person with a brain the size of a planet was doing stuck away in my backwater, surely he should be a part of Labour’s thinking at the national level? Since 2010 he has been an MP in – horror of horrors – Merseyside.

    He was parachuted, he is not a “Blairite” whatever that is supposed to mean, he voted for Ed in the leadership election, against IDS’s retrospective legislation recently, and I should think anyone would be happy to have him as their MP regardless of where they lived. By the look of his website he is keely involved in local initiatives and may well be bringing fresh eyes to some dire problems.

  3. Tinged Fringe
    Yes it would be instructive to see those data.

    My mother was cremated on Monday. Long not-seen relatives from Bristol attended and one elderly lady was from inner-city Bristol.

    She mentioned that her immediate neighbours never spoke to her, but she added that ‘the Indian man at the end of the street always spoke to her and asked after her family’.

    She asked whether I had problems with immigrants (I live in the very rural SW). When I said we had none (guessing what she meant) she was astonished, astounded even. Just to be sure, I confirmed whether she was referring to people of another races and I frankly think she thought I was fibbing, when I said we had none, other than the very few restaurateurs in the nearby market towns.

    It will be on the doorstep where UKIP will be getting its support and there, one can pursue a line that could not be pursued in press conferences. My view of these parties is that they draw fairly equally from voters and the (normally) non-voters alike. They are to be regarded as one would an Independent. However, they will draw more from the right wing voters, as their fundamental approach is based on the reception of anti-immigrant views by people who have the fear or loathing of other cultures and the sense of a disappearing Britain.

    I agree with Tinged Fringe that an insight into the UKIP voter’s motivations would be handy. This is because I am otherwise certain that the reality of the EU (supposedly *the* UKIP issue) actually has no daily impact that such voters can discern, yet, on the face of it, this should be the kernel issue of their support.

  4. @Tinged Fringe

    It’s a well known sociological/psychological phenomena, people are all too ready to assign blame for something on a class of people they have never interacted with. “The Outside” or “The Other” can be easily assigned even the most illogical of blame.

  5. What nobody mentions is the fact that voters in England have such poor choices when it comes to voting.
    You have only got right wing parties the 3 so called big parties ,then when disgust with them settles in ,you are left with more extreme right wing parties in UKIP , BNP or EDL.
    The entire governance of Uk needs massive reform ,replacing The Tory /Libs with Red Tories of Labour will result in more of the same.
    We had the Labour Party who took us into this mess being replaced by the Coalition that have made it worse.
    Does anyone really believe that bringing back Labour will improve anything?
    These Parties only pander to the very small amount of voters that can actually influence an election result.
    This leaves swathes of UK feeling isolated and let down.
    Look no further than Scotland to see the only majority Government in UK.
    The only Party with + approval ratings and a popular leadership also enjoying + approval ratings.
    Worth also noting this government is the only left of centre party in British politics in government or likely to be in government.
    Also if this massive reform does not come along quickly ,Scotland and the cash cow that is Oil ,Gas and alcohol will be setting out on a different course.

  6. Ewen

    Sydney Saunders [and his doube entendres] is a fictional cartoon character from Viz – so “real life”, but not as you’d know it.

  7. @SoCalLiberal

    Toast David Cameron all you like you old reprobate!

    Btw I notice our friend Raul Ruiz was given a number of Committee assignments and has spoken in the House a few times. He also got put on the vulnerable list (Frontline Program), makes him sound like an endangered panda doesn’t it? A good thing though as it places the focus on fundraising to fend off a challenge in 2014.

    Mary Bono Mack also has a new job in Washington (senior vp with FaegreBD Consulting) and apparently has a weekly slot on CNN. “I’ve gladly accepted that it is time to move on” she tells the Desert Sun.

  8. I have trouble knowing which being of the party Boris is on, he seems to make it up as he goes along. I’m sure if he was leader the press would expose his inconsistenties mercilessly

  9. @Billy Bob
    @ SoCalLiberalor

    I was reading up on Raul Ruiz and he is my pick for President at some point over the next 30 years. He has achieved so much, everything he sets his mind to – so if he sets his mind to President I wouldn’t bet against him

  10. Paul
    lt’s FINBAR Saunders and his double entendres…
    Viz is one of the reasons l remain proud to be British!

  11. @ Paul

    Ewen is right- you are getting Sidney Smutt and Finbarr mixed up!

  12. Ewen
    Paul
    lt’s FINBAR Saunders and his double entendres…
    Viz is one of the reasons l remain proud to be British!
    ——————————————————-

    I bet you’re upstanding as well. Fnaaar, fnaaar!

  13. @couper2802

    He’s a little guy – they say the tallest candidate usually wins – let’s hope the GOP pick someone on the petite side that year!

    But he is Fonzie-cool. Bono Mack went at him with all guns blazing in the local televised debate… he shrugged it off and kept smiling. I agree though, the campaigns he has taken part in over the years show his heart is in the right place, and there does seem to be a determined career direction there – one of his three Harvard degrees was from the Kennedy School of Government.

  14. RiN

    I have trouble knowing which being of the party Boris is on, he seems to make it up as he goes along. I’m sure if he was leader the press would expose his inconsistenties mercilessly
    ———————————————————

    He’s in the Boris Party of course. If the great British public suddenly decided that the political way forward was Sheepism, Boris would grow a fleece and say “Baa” in that endearingly chappish way of his.

  15. Boris may be a successful mayor but….I really doubt he is leadership material. If he had to make difficult decisions regarding the running of this country, his popularity would soon fold IMO. I actually find the thought of Boris being PM rather scary.

  16. he will always be Sidney to me – Finbar doesn’t alliterate

    [oo er Missis]

  17. Isn’t the immediate problem with Boris that he’s like a powerful chess piece in completely the position on the board?

    No matter how hard you try you can’t credibly get him where you want him (not that I do) without considerable disruption,massive risk-taking and a desperate belief your opponent won’t come up with any effective counter move.

    On the other hand I agree re Raul Ruiz – maybe Hilary should select him as running mate.That’d be America sorted until 2032 by my reckoning (and likely enough for this aged observer).

    The UK on the other hand….

  18. I actually find the thought of Boris being PM rather scary.
    =====================================
    Equally another 5 years of Cameron , worse still 5 years of Milliband Minor, or Clegg ,then of course we could have Farage… I believe it is called Hobson’s Choice

  19. Interesting that some of you can only envisage politics through personalities.

  20. I had a funny reaction when I saw a girl wearing a “Pedro for President” t-shirt. I kept staring, wondering where I’d seen it before.

    Napoleon Dynamite’s other friend Deb is a really great portrait photographer… here’s her technique:

    Okay, turn your head on more of a slant…
    Now, make a fist. Slowly ease it up underneath your chin.
    This is looking really good….hold still right there.
    Now, just imagine you’re weightless, in the middle of the ocean, surrounded by tiny little seahorses.
    That was the one. I think that’s gonna come out really nice.

    Be that as it may, you’re looking at an order for at least three Raul Ruiz for President t-shirts right about now.

  21. Anyone else watch Pointless? In this TV game 100 people are asked to answer a question (e,g, to name as many countries as possible beginning and ending in a). To win the jackpot the contestants have to give a correct answer which none of the 100 initially questioned have supplied,

    I do not imagine that such a learned group as those taking part in this blog will share my taste for the game. They might, however, be interested in some of the answers. Unprompted and ask to name members of the cabinet only 12 of the hundred named William Hague (Vince Cable and David Cameron did better at 22) Andrew Lansley scored 1 or 0, Clegg did best of all at something like 32). Equally striking was the intelligent, well put together woman who named Gordon Brown as one of the conservative chancellors since the war.

    I can see that these anecdotes may strike some as an elitist reliance on something even less valid than voodoo polls. However, I do wonder how much the public know or care about politics between elections. I don’t think this is irrational or irresponsible on their part. Personally I don’t know the name of my Euro MP, let alone her or his policies and the same goes for my police commissioner (not even sure of the name or title) against whom I voted and my local councilors. Life is just too short.

    Obviously others may be more conscientious than I am. However, my observation of pointless makes me wonder. Anyone know of any objective evidence on how much the public really know about politics or what, when they know little (as some do) tends to sway their vote?

  22. Charles

    You have just answered Howard’s question about why some posters are so hangups on personalities, personally I find it distressing but then I’m not a “normal” person. With most folks it takes interesting personalities and clever soundbites to get through the disinterest in politics

  23. I know I shouldn’t talk about boobs but is that boob story true? You know the one I mean!!

  24. @richard in norway

    “…I know I shouldn’t talk about boobs but is that boob story true? You know the one I mean!!..”

    I have no idea which one you mean. Please enlighten us…:-)

    rgdsm

  25. Martyn
    The big boob job on the nhs, reported in the sun and doing the rounds on Facebook. I’m inclined to dismiss it as a made up story, at least I hope it is

  26. RiN

    But personality does matter. Charismatic people tend to.be popular. Not just in politics but in life generally.

    Politics is not just about.policy but connecting with the voters – having the common touch. It’s always been about both, particularly with.regard to.leadership.

  27. Raf

    That’s what I said, but I don’t have to like it

  28. Charles
    When l was studying Politics ,the definition of being politically active was displaying a poster or window bill at election times,or at least that was the entry level. Around 4percent of the adult population were thought to be within this group.

  29. RiN

    No. I understand. But in some ways I disagree. Maybe charismatic sets the bar too high. Do you not think politicians need to be able to.pursuade people of their ideas/solutions/general approach? What’s the point of having a brilliant mind wothout being able to effively articulate it.

    I bemoan the current fad for style over substance, but why can’t we have both? Genuinely.substantial.figures rarely lack style. It just unfortunate the reverse is not also true.

  30. Raf

    “Genuinely.substantial.figures rarely lack style. It just unfortunate the reverse is not also true.”

    Lol, it’s a tale of two tonys, ben was a substantial and charismatic man with duff ideas and Blair was unsubstantial , charismatic and bloody dangerous

  31. Rightly or wrongly assumptions are invariably made about individuals that relate to their perceived place on the political spectrum : Boris is seen as more right wing, more Tory by many who promote him.Brown was often presented as closer to old Labour and so on.

    When polls appear about a political figure they are always likely to be telling you more than a mere beauty contest or personality-of the-year award.

    Admittedly though there is a genuine problem summoning up much interest int he trio of pragmatists that Cameron,Clegg and Milliband seem to be.

  32. Local by election results for yesterday look a bit better for the Conservatives. They managed to retain Parson Drove and Wisbech even with a UKIP candidate standing.

    Tories 44%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 25%
    EngDem 4%

    The 2011 vote here was 47% Conservative, 36% Lib Dem, 17% Labour

    They haven’t managed to do that for quite a few weeks now, normally a UKIP candidate splits their vote letting a Lib Dem win, or in 2 recent elections UKIP actually defeated the Tories. In this case it looks like the Tory vote held up.

  33. @RiN

    Obviously a story of major import, referring as it does to our beloved NHS, the increased acceptance of body modification and advances in transplant surgery post-Iraqistan. Plainly we must obey our civic duty and investigate further.

    To that end I looked on the internet about the subject.

    Despite the many, many similar stories which I diligently investigated, I found this story on the Daily Mail website, which I submit for your further inspection.in the scholastic vein for which this site is justly famous.

    rgdsm

    PS. Boobies. Giggle.

  34. @Charles

    There different kinds of quiz shows in the world. On one end you have Mastermind and Countdown, where you’re vetted in preliminaries before being allowed on the show to demonstrate your knowledge retention or word and number game skills.

    On the other end you have day-time filler Quiz-Shows, where the producers deliberately avoid picking anyone with suitable talent. Because the point of the show is to allow the viewer to see the drama, and feel self assured that they could do a lot better than ‘most of the people who go on Quiz shows’.

  35. YouGov
    Con 29, Lab 42, Lib 11, UKIP 13
    Approval -35

    This shifts the Lab weighted average back up to 40.7.

    However – the weighted averages for Con, Lib and UKIP are exactly 30, 12 and 12.
    Changes since the last pre-budget poll (20th) –
    Con -0.6, Lab -0.1, Lib +0.9, UKIP +0.7, Green +0.1 Other -1
    And just to indicate roughly the variation that can occur, since the 21st (most fieldwork would have been done on the 20th, so pre-budget) –
    Con -0.8, Lab -0.2, Lib +0.9, UKIP +1.1, Green +0.2 Other -1.1

    Lab’s current VI trend is unclear except for the clear post-Eastleigh drop to 41-ish (yesterday it dropped to 40.4, which may have indicated the start of a trend further down, but like I said, it’s back up to 40.7 today).

    It’s pretty clear that Con have dropped to 30 though, with both Lib and UKIP up to 12.
    30 for Con is their lowest average VI this parliament with YouGov, so we’ll have to see if this is the trough before the climb back up (much like 8-ish was for the LibDems – now back to 12).

    It’s looking likely that we’ll avoid the triple-dip and the original technical double-dip may be revised away, so there is the potential for good economic news soon, which would be good for Con VI.
    The only potential problem I can see coming up is the local elections, with the potential for big Con losses (only because of the large gains in 2009, against a backdrop of large Labour losses).
    But who knows what sort of black swan will be thrown the way of any of the parties.

  36. @JAYBLANC

    Charles wan’t talking about the contestants. Pointless (supposedly) asks 100 members of the public at random and the contestants have to find the least popular answers. What Charles was pointing out was the low recognition rate from random members of the public not the contestants.

    Anyway I take exception to the idea that intelligent people are weeded out as Pointless candidates. My wife and I passed the audition to appear on the show and even made it to studio reserve, got all made up and everything. But in the end didn’t get called. Some of the other people we met and talked to were very knowledgeable and intelligent.

  37. I watch Pointless all the time, and it’s pretty clear that politics is a terrible category for most. Ideal if it’s in the finals list and you know it fairly well, because you’re almost guaranteed the jackpot. Meh, UK politics gets the (dire) recognition it deserves.

  38. I agree with Norbold. I think it unlikely that Pointless rejects the intelligent. I happen to know someone who won it with his brother. He was an Oxford graduate and together they had wide general knowledge and expertise in some specialist subjects (like pop songs) where they were lucky in the questions.

    My point about the lady who thought that Gordon Brown was conservative was that she was obviously mature, intelligent and in many respects well informed.

    So I am very interested in Ewen’s information that only 4 per cent put up posters and that this is ‘entry level’ to being politically engaged. Obviously more than four per cent vote, so how do they make up their minds – on the ‘celebrity factor’ (as might be suggested by some discussion above), on their feel for how things are going (cost of food, jobs etc), soundbites from the press, a preference for the devil one knows, a feeling that I (or my family) have always voted this way …

    And assuming that different people will be swayed by different things at different times how does one get a handle on how things work?

  39. I too am a great fan of pointless. A contestant can be as clever as a Mastermind champ, and know ALL the correct answers. To win, however, they must guess the answer which the fewest number of the public guessed, and that is so much harder – and why it is fun.

    I agree that UK Politics is always a low scoring subject, with some, obviously quite knowledgable contestants scoring badly, and the public obviously knowing little.

  40. @CHARLES

    YouGov should do a poll asking how people would vote and then asking why. Although that might be too useful to the political parties, so YouGov might want paid, it would be very interesting poll for UKPRs to analyse.

    Has YouGov done such a poll?

  41. Talking of politics and quiz shows. I was on Eggheads about five years ago and took on CJ on politics. We both got our three multiple choice questions right and then went on to the no choice sudden death question. We both got the first two of those right but then CJ got his third one wrong and I got mine right., so I got through to the final round. In all I’d had to get six questions on politics right. When they showed the programme on tele they cut out two of the sudden death questions so only four were ever shown. .

  42. +1 for Pointless fandom! Perhaps unsurprisingly around here as it’s to some extent a program about polling… ;)

  43. Couper – doesn’t work, it relies upon the misconception that people understand the underlying factors behind their own decisions. They don’t.

    The example I always give to illustrate this is that we know, from empirical data, that what groceries people buy in the supermarket is hugely influenced by things like the packaging and whether they are placed on the middle shelf. However, if you asked people what the important factors were for them in deciding that margarine to buy, hardly any would say “oh, whichever one is on the middle shelf”.

    In the sense that you actually can do it, look to the British Election Study – a large scale academic survey done at each general election. The team behind that use key driver analysis on the data to see which factors actually drive voting intention (although even then people can look at the same data and come to different conclusions.)

    Essentually, party identification, perceptions of the party leaders, perceptions of party competence and ability to deliver on the important issue of the day – those are the sort of thing that drive votes.

  44. Martyn

    Yes, that was the young lady in question. I do hope you enjoyed your trip to the dark side, i noticed that the daily mail had a link to new statesman article about Denis healy which was an interesting diversion but quite surprising, things must begetting a bit ddesperate at the new statema if they are looking for subscribers in the mail!!

  45. @AW

    Of course, So is this the sort of thing focus groups for are used for?

  46. @AW – I would also be interested in whether there is an influence from what other people are doing.

    In my own field of energy and the environment, there is good evidence that people tend to respond to messages that reinforce actions on the basis that other people are doing them. There was some research from California into domestic energy consumption where residents electricity bills also told them whether they were above of below average for the locality. Those who were above average did reduce their consumption, so it appeared to work. In this, unfortunately they also found that those under the average actually increased consumption, which in the end more than cancelled out the gains.

    In politics I’ve always felt that once it appears normal to back a party, then more people will flock to them. This may be something that is currently happening with UKIP?

  47. Quite a few comments have been made here regarding the apparent upturn in LibDem support to circa 12%.. I would suggest that the LibDems should be far more cheered by the slump in Tory support to 30% – implying a drop of 7% since 2010 compared with 11 – 12% for the LibDems.. Nationally this would be a LD – Tory swing of barely 2% which would mean that most LD/Tory marginals would be held even without taking account of incumbency and personal votes for the sitting LibDem MP.. I suspect there would still be significant losses to Labour, but in terms of pure electoral calculation an early election might no longer be unappealing to the LibDems.. Why hang on and risk a Tory recovery that would put more of their seats at risk?

  48. @tingedfringe – ” …large gains in 2009, against a backdrop of large Labour losses”

    Looking back through the cycle:

    1994: Con -516, Lab +44, LD +428
    1997: Con +124, Lab +28, LD -145
    2001: Con +109, Lab -10, LD -93
    2005: Con +152, Lab -114, LD +40
    2009: Con +244, Lab -291, LD -2

    In 2013 wards being defended:
    Con 1531, Lab 178, LD 484

    The story could be that Labour takes control of a some significant county councils (no metropolitans and very few unitaries involved in this election) but fails to make a big impact compared to 2012, Con loses some but remains dominant, and LD builds on their recovery this year with some gains. That is unless UKIP manages to throw a mighty spanner in the works.

  49. Anthony,
    My last comment on recent LibDem/Tory poll shares has gone into moderation for no obvious reason!

  50. I agree with Alec that there is probably a bandwagon effect. It might be possible to test this by asking a random selection of a sample something like ‘A recent poll suggested that a growing number of UKIP’s policies were the best’ are the best. Do you agree?’ and the rest ‘A recent poll shows that 13 per cent of the population ……’. One might have to check the questions but something like this might give a sense of how far ‘momentum’ is a factor. (Much like Alec’s bills analogy in fact) Don’t know if polling companies do this kind of thing.

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