YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 13%. While we have seen much higher from other online companies, it is the highest UKIP score that YouGov have shown so far. All the usual caveats apply: one should never get too excited about a record breaking score as it will almost always be a bit of an outlier. What counts is the underlying trend, and these figures underline the ongoing increase in UKIP support, and indeed the recent modest recovery in YouGov’s Lib Dem support.


595 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 12, UKIP 13”

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  1. @ Dayle

    The three main parties seem to want to brush off real issues like the EU and immigration as a mid-term protest when really, many places in the UK are experiencing the damaging effects, by 2015, assuming the three parties do not address these issues, we should see UKIP polling at least 25% of the national vote.
    —————
    Have a look at the You Gov polling regarding the salience of these issues to people’s own lives. You’ll find that immigration & the EU don’t top the list.

    The UKIP have yet to quantify – & have scrutinised by the media – the effect which their policies would have on the UK economy. And the UK economy (especially their own, personal economy) is the issue which tops the list for most voters.

  2. @Turk

    The welfare bill as a whole is rising due to an ageing population. That part which relates to working age benefits is suffering actual cuts due to specific policy. The 1% uprating would normally be considered a cut, as it does not keep pace with inflation. The number of benefit claimants is the biggest factor in the size of the benefit bill as a whole, rather than any specific measure.

  3. @ Turk, TOH,

    …what exactly the Labour policy is on cutting the welfare bill.
    ————————
    Labour’s policy: More people in employment earning a living wage. There’s a good article about it in the Telegraph, albeit with a right-leaning, slightly anti-Labour spin (which will perhaps give it more credibility in your eyes).

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100023849/minimum-wage-should-be-substantially-raised-not-cut/

  4. @Amber Star

    I am not a fan of the mimimum wage but since we have one I do not have a problem with raising it as an alternative to taking all those people on minimum wage out of tax especially since the groups affected are as listed. Mind you many working in those sectors are either temporary or permanent economic migrants and it may well be that it would mean more money being sent out of the country rather than being spent here.

  5. The other howard

    I can’t comment for Peter but I was joking, and I made that clear. Are you related to David laws by any chance?

  6. @RiN

    Apology accepted, indeed not needed. Your later post said sorry Howard, I assumed you had said somethging earlier to the LibDem Howard who posts here.

    @Amber Star

    Despite the fact that I support a lot of the policies of UKIP I agree with your 3.55 post regarding what will happenb as we near the election.

  7. @ TOH

    Mind you many working in those sectors are either temporary or permanent economic migrants and it may well be that it would mean more money being sent out of the country rather than being spent here.
    ——————–
    Yes, non-EU immigration is most easily dealt with by having a skills requirement but EU migration is an issue which none of the main parties plan to do anything about.

    They all are firmly of the belief (& the available facts support them, at this time) that the benefits to the economy from EU migrants outweighs any actual negatives; although they are clearly struggling to convince a significant minority of voters that the benefits outweigh the perceived negatives.

  8. Amber,

    Only a few weeks ago, you were vehemently against taking the low paid entirely out of income tax/NIC. Have you changed your position?

    They say to do so would cost ~£20bn…does this include the savings on income support?

  9. They = that Telegraph blog….

  10. Anthony

    In my role as Chief Snitch can I point out that Turk and TOH are initiating discussion on policy matters?

    Are you going to tell them off??

  11. @Amber Star

    Thanks for the info, on that basis i don’t have a problem at all.

    @Paul Croft.

    Nice to hear from you, just commenting on Amber’s post and probably to her surprise happy to agree with her.

  12. The need for immigration comes from the desire to have a flexible labour market and avoid spending on training or vocational training schools. It is not a choice, it is a trade off. When will Conservatives (and some NuLab) will understand it…

  13. @ Steve 2

    Only a few weeks ago, you were vehemently against taking the low paid entirely out of income tax/NIC. Have you changed your position?
    ———————-
    No, I have not changed my position. The low paid should have higher wages, pay some tax & definitely pay NIC. Social security & pensions should be contributory (with some very carefully designed exceptions). Therefore, everybody who is working should pay something towards social security.

  14. @Lazlo

    Don’t worry the debate has ended so although I would disagree with your post I shall not persue it as AW wants us to stick to polling.

  15. @ TOH

    Sorry. You are right.

  16. TOH

    Despite the fact that I support a lot of the policies of UKIP I agree with your 3.55 post regarding what will happenb as we near the election.

    Who would have thought.

  17. @Amber Star

    Certainly that argument has some attraction as it is in line with my view that everyone should be aware that there have responsibilities as well as rights.

    There, I have agreed with you twice now, so your Labour views and those of the right do have some areas of common ground.

  18. @AmberStar

    One problem with the JW article. Why does he single out tax credits as being a government subsidy that encourages low pay. ALL benefits are subsidies to employers for low pay. There wouldn’t newd to be anything other than a tiny benefits budget if employers paid a wage that reflected the real cost of living.

  19. @Lazlo

    I agree with you about vocational training. I would like to see the education system in this country run more on the German lines. Return to Grammar type Schools for the best academic pupils and vocational training and apprenticeships for the rest. A key part of improving the economic future of this country.

  20. TOH/aka Vlad the Impaler etc etc

    Nice to hear from you too: sorry to hear you got roped in with the washing up earlier. Ole Vlad wouldn’t have got the tea towel out.

    Actually I s’pose it dependes on what sort of a lady Mrs Impaler was – maybe he would: we’ll never know.

  21. @ TOH

    The German system works because of the sector-wide collective agreements, credetialism (eg a supervisor must have a Meister exam) and alike. So, you will need those too.

  22. Oh and compulsory membership in trade associations or Chamber of Commerce, agreement with unions and government on training needs and employee representatives on the board. These are the trade offs.

  23. @ RAF

    One problem with the JW article. Why does he single out tax credits as being a government subsidy that encourages low pay. ALL benefits are subsidies to employers for low pay.
    —————-
    Yes; that’s why I mentioned that the article had a bit of anti-Labour spin to it, from my perspective anyway.

  24. Amber Star

    Getting people into work is the aspiration and policy of every government not just Labour, if it was that easy there would be little or no unemployment.
    However back in the real world if Labour win the next GE can we hope that’s not there only welfare policy, has anybody heard anything else they may have up there sleeves I’m genuinely interested in real differences between parties. Anybody really think they will reverse any of the changes the coalition brought in or do you think there happy to see the coalition to do the lifting and shifting while offering righteous indignation from the side lines.
    Incidently I never read the Telegraph far to left wing, I get all my independant un biased news from the BBC nice to see they’ve put a helpful link to the IDS petition on there news web site always unbiased and independant, nudge nudge, wink wink.

  25. @LAZLO

    If thats the system in Germany then I would rephrase my earlier reply by deleting the reference “on German lines”.

    I’ll stick with” Return to Grammar type Schools for the best academic pupils and vocational training and apprenticeships for the rest. A key part of improving the economic future of this country”.

  26. @Paul Croft

    Sorry don’t find your humour funny sometimes. As I pointed out my views are nothing like those of Vlad the Impaler or Attila the Hun, far from it.

    You also did not read my earlier post properly, I said doing some washing, not washing up.

  27. @ Turk

    Getting people into work is the aspiration and policy of every government not just Labour…
    —————-
    It may be an aspiration but it isn’t the policy priority of the current government.

  28. @Turk
    “BBC nice to see they’ve put a helpful link to the IDS petition”

    Nicely hidden away but I eventually found it. The petition is still going well standing currently at 295,538.

  29. TURK

    @”or do you think there happy to see the coalition to do the lifting and shifting while offering righteous indignation from the side lines.”

    Absolutely.

    Look at Balls’ reaction to GO’s speech today, which may be summarised as:-

    * Most people are worse off.
    * “Only the richest “are getting a tax cut.
    * This is “unfair”.
    * The welfare bill is up because GO’s economic policy is failing.
    * We need to get people in to work so they pay tax & NI

    Putting aside factual dispute with any of that-do you see any critique of the UK Welfare Benefits system?-any thoughts on areas which need reform?.or cost control?

    Unless the OPs have changed dramatically in the last few days, I think GO was entitled to say that Labour are not on the same page as the voting public on Welfare.

  30. “Rising unemployment and the recession have been the price that we have had to pay to get inflation down. That price is well worth paying.”

    I wonder who said that… surely not one of the ex-chancellors Osborne goes to for regular advice sessions?

  31. Poll alert –
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_ConspiracyTheories_040213.pdf
    1247 American voters, 2.8%+- MOE
    20 conspiracies that people (or not believe in)

    On a serious note – the questions will suffer from problems of phrasing (the ‘Do you agree..’ problem) but I found the results amusing.

    .. since it’s a poll and not whether Labour or the Tories are rubbish (or not).

  32. @Amber Star

    Your last post was too partisan for me to respond. I hope Turk feels the same.

  33. TOH

    It was-and unworthy of Amber actually.

  34. @Colin

    I agree it was unworthy of Amber, I suspect that she has been rattled by my agreeement with some of her posts recently.

    @Tinged fringe

    Amazing responses, some of them!

  35. “The Daily Mail reported Duncan Smith as saying: “It was a shock – absolutely awful. I felt pathetic. I remember telling my wife. We looked at each other and she said: ‘God, what are we going to do for money?'”

    Duncan Smith’s wife, Betsy, is the daughter of the 5th Baron Cottesloe who served as lord-lieutenant of Buckinghamshire in the 1980s and 1990s. Duncan Smith and his wife, who sent their children to Eton, moved into Lord Cottesloe’s 17th-century Old House in the village of Swanbourne in Buckinghamshire in 2002. His in-laws moved into smaller accommodation to make way for the Duncan Smiths and their four children.”

    LOL

  36. @BillyBob

    I suspect most Germans who lived through the years 1921-24 would agree with the sentiments expressed in your quote above. I suspect inflation is still number one economic enemy in Germany today.

  37. @NickP

    What has that quote taken out of context got to do with anything? I don’t think it will have any effect on polling.

  38. @ TOH

    The current government is perfectly open about their lack of policies on employment creation:
    1. They will cut public sector employment; &
    2. The private sector creates jobs, not governments; &
    3. They hope that a cut in corporation tax may attract inward investment which might create jobs but there is very little evidence available that it does.

    So I don’t think that my comment was partisan. It was a statement of policy facts, in response to Turk’s post. And, now that I have ‘spelled it out’, I think you’ll probably agree with me that the current government has aspirations to create employment but no actual policies. If they do have policies, of which I am unaware, I’d be very happy to see them listed in a similar, factual way (as opposed to discussing whether they’re good/bad will work/ won’t work – which AW isn’t keen on).

  39. @LizH

    All that proves is that the public like a laugh at a politions gaff. It will probably make him more popular.

  40. why do some people have party coloured backgrounds?

  41. @ Colin, TOH,

    I think you are misconstruing my response to Turk, chaps. It was probably too brief & I hope that my (above) expansion of it will make it clearer. I’m looking forward to your responses. :-)

  42. @Paul Croft
    You clearly can’t have been reading my posts, then.

    I contested quotes that defined communism as merely one of mass murder, when under the same crude terms capitalism could be similarly be caricatured as such.

    Of course, the individual leaders that committed mass murder within these systems (your Stalin & Hitler’s) deserve all the contempt they get.

  43. @TOH
    “All that proves is that the public like a laugh at a politions gaff. It will probably make him more popular.”

    301,260 now and rising. I don’t think these people are laughing – read their comments.

  44. @AmberStar

    I disagree profoundly on that but I am not going into it as we will both just end up being moderated as you very well know.

    You should remember that I am not a supporter of this Government just somebody who prefers it to a labour government (unless of course a future Labour Government suddenly saw the light on those values I hold dear).

  45. @LizH

    Try reading AW’s earlier post on the subject it will put it all into perspective for you.

  46. AMBER

    @”1. They will cut public sector employment; ”

    Certainly-but you need to believe that a) the public sector needed slimming down & b) growing employment through an ever expanding state payroll is not a sustainable employment ( or indeed Fiscal) policy.
    If you do believe those things you will see this policy as a factor in an overall strategy for sustainable growth in employment.
    If you do not believe those things you will not see it as such.

    @”2. The private sector creates jobs, not governments; ”
    I think you need to insert the word “sustainable” before jobs-then I think that a fair summary of policy.

    A policy which is working..

    @”3. They hope that a cut in corporation tax may attract inward investment which might create jobs but there is very little evidence available that it does.”

    Yes -that is policy.

    And it is working:-

    http://www.ukti.gov.uk/investintheuk/investintheukhome/item/344900.html

  47. Thank you, the Other Howard.

    Two people have gone on pre-moderation so far this afternoon. *SPIRIT* of non-partisanship. In other words, if the main thrust of your comment or contribution is to criticise, deride or defend the government or opposition or their policy positions then it is against the comment policy, however carefully it is written.

    I appreciate that this thread is such a mess because it has gone on for so long and there is no new polling data (though there is plenty of past data out there on attitudes to welfare and benefit cuts) but nevertheless. Colin and Amber, please desist.

  48. @Colin

    Well done and i hope you don’t get moderated. There is much more which we could both add but it will upset AW so i suggest you leave it at that.

  49. TOH

    Indeed.

    AW

    Will do.

  50. @AW

    What did you think of the new Jonathan Creek/Game of Thrones then?

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