YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 13%. While we have seen much higher from other online companies, it is the highest UKIP score that YouGov have shown so far. All the usual caveats apply: one should never get too excited about a record breaking score as it will almost always be a bit of an outlier. What counts is the underlying trend, and these figures underline the ongoing increase in UKIP support, and indeed the recent modest recovery in YouGov’s Lib Dem support.


595 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 12, UKIP 13”

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  1. @TOH

    “As I post elsewhere the rich will move to where they can get the best value for there wealth”

    We so often hear this threat but most rich people don’t seem to follow this through. Even if they don’t want to admit it, why someone wants to live somewhere has to do with more than just money.

  2. The IDS petition is still growing. It stands at 150,654 as I write.

  3. @LizH

    Are but they do, those who are greating wealth do go to where they are appreciated. As for the IDS petition I agree with AW’s view on petitions. It was very silly of him but so what.

    The key point I keep coming back to is what the economy can afford in the long term. As I said earlier it is really not about politics as it doesn’t matter which party is in power. I am not going to persue this anymore. I think i have made my point clearly and i have no desire to upset AW who gives us such a splendid site. So as I said. Have a nice day

  4. The justifications for these benefit reforms imply that the govt/treasury expect large scale unemployment to persist for a very long time, odd that the commie BBC doesn’t pick up on this!

  5. Worth pointing out that we could (and did) afford a larger welfare system in the past. We could afford them now if we wanted to.

    Nothing has magically happened to suddenly make a larger welfare bill entirely unaffordable. We just have to have higher taxes to afford them.

    I’m willing to pay more taxes to ensure that those who are in need don’t have to suffer because of ill-health or misfortune.

    It would appear that a lot of people are not. That’s fine, but let’s not pretend these things are not affordable – we have chosen not to pay for them.

  6. @”(they always tend to disintegrate as they get old”

    No need to be personal Anthony.

    We crumblies have feelings too!

  7. @LizH
    IN fact, I think the rich will find it difficult to move their Mansions abroad to avoid the Mansion Tax.

    Unless they are smuggling them out, brick by brick on their Yachts.

  8. @RogerRebel

    Well if i don’t know what i am talking about then its the secret to success as i have had a very successful and enjoyable life.

    I try very hard not to abuse those who do not agree with me, perhaps you would try to do the same.

    As AW tells us often this is a polling site so my final comment before I retreat to my garden is that i expect the froth to have very little effect on the polls.

  9. @ Laszlo

    Yes, I did mean 25 million, it was a typo, thanks for the correction.

  10. I am relying on posters to keep me updated on GO’s speech as I don’t have access to the tv or internet.

    Thankyou.

  11. @JAYBLANC

    Would love to argue this with you in detail but we will both get automoderated and as i said the sun is shining here and i have better things to do.

  12. Purely on polling, the argument is about to get distilled and polarised, exactly as Linton Crosby might want.

    Polling will be interesting, although how Con can fall much further than the high 20s I’m not sure. Labour need to decide whose side they are on, and get their message clear.

    Should be fun…unless you are reliant on benefits.

  13. Can’t believe I’ve just read posts arguing whether Nazi mass extermination was more or less than Stalinist or any other. Are we supposed to think that the “lesser” number is ok then?

    And as for bring the UK into – I really despair.

  14. A fighting speech from GO this morning.

    He needs to do much more of this.

  15. NickP

    It will be interesting as arguments (I’m not sure two competing monologues is really a ‘debate’) get more polarised. I suspect we’ll start seeing a narrower gap in the polls and am not sure that the Tories will see the kind of appalling results that many are predicting for them in the May elections. They’re getting some canny expectation management in early.

    Anyway, looks like that May campaign has started. Will be an interesting few weeks.

  16. Paul usually rubbish I turned it off.

  17. Paul Croft

    Perhaps a new expression should be used in online chat sites like this one for ‘who was the worst totalitarian’.

    May I suggest ‘Godwin By Proxy’?

    I have just looked at the exchange rates and see no meltdown of any currency so we’ll have to await the next news media panic for that one, I suppose. perhaps Steph and Peston are on leave?

  18. After listening to GO Wat Tyler will be turning in is grave.

  19. Spinner
    “It is estimated that more than 250 million Russians (excluding natural deaths) died in WW2 as a result of Russia’s involvement in the war against the fascists. Please show some respect.”

    The discussion was not about how many Russians died, it was about how many COMMUNISTS died. ie members of the Communist party. I questioned the number as it sounded like a ‘top of the head remark.’

    Most ordinary Russians are not and never were, members of the Communist party. They had to live with what existed, which under the Czar, was fear & repression & under the Communism of Stalin, was fear, repression & death.

    I again repeat my original statement that both Fascist & Communist governments are equally evil. Arguing about which kills more is trite in the extreme, as 1 death is a disaster to the family concerned.

    I think that we will both show more respect if we simply agree that fascism & communism are, in practice, equally repulsive notions, whatever the theoretical advantages are of having the trains run on time or all men living in some equality nirvana.

  20. @Colin

    I agree, good stuff.

  21. Yeah, and we won’t mention the millions of death under capitalism, eh, Robert?

  22. Is Communism evil in essence? Probably not at least theoretically. I think fascism is probably evil even in theory.

    Not the place to discuss it though.

    I don’t think the rich are evil either, but I still think they should pay their taxes.

  23. Godwin By proxy alert!

  24. Craig
    Not worth commenting on. The ensuing arguement will just get both of us moderated.

  25. NickP and Chris Riley

    I’m not a great believer in the idea that there is some kind of hidden minimum below which party support can’t drop unless we fix it at figures uselessly low.At a given point of time yes but over a longer period (years,months even) -no.

    For example I can imagine a situation in which economic troubles leave the Tories in the 20s, UKIP do well in the Euros and a further bunch of voters ,having resigned themselves to a Labour government, desert rightwards.It’s not at all likely but not inherently impossible.

    Likewise Lib Dems squeezed to next to nothing. Labour only look slightly better off for the moment in that they’re the obvious opposition to the government and have remained united and uncontroversial on the whole.

    I’ll be very surprised if the Tories avoid a seriously bad result in the locals – if they can do so it will be a strong indication that things are not going as well for Labour and UKIP in particular as the polls suggest and I’ll happily revert to my original 2010 belief that were favourites to win in 2015

  26. Odd that even here the admission by the treasury that unemployment will not fall significantly (at least not by enough to affect spending on benefits) until 2018 at the earliest is unremarked. What they are admitting is that there will be no recovery

  27. “He needs to do much more of this.”

    Too right, especially after an Easter weekend with “Conservative knives out for George Osborne” in top spot on the Telegraph’s politics page.

  28. @RiN

    Got a link etc?

  29. I think it’s a scorched earth policy now. Leave as little as possible left for the enemy to use when you’ve gone.

  30. Craig

    No link because no one is talking about the implication of the treasury forecasts that ids is using to justify the benefit reforms, everyone is just arguing about whether it’s fair, I’m just using my grey matter and wondering why no one in the media is picking up on this. Unless someone else has a good explanation of how benefits are projected to continue rising until 2017 within the context of rapidly falling unemployment.

  31. @ RIN

    Unless someone else has a good explanation of how benefits are projected to continue rising until 2017 within the context of rapidly falling unemployment.
    ——————–
    From memory, I believe net retirements & related pensioner benefits are forecast to reach a peak level in 2017/18.

  32. Amber/Richard –

    I think both projections are from the BRO – the DWP website points to this pdf

    http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/March-2013-EFO-44734674673453.pdf

    Which includes amongst loads of other stuff projections of unemployment and of social security spending.

  33. Amber

    I think you are right but it isn’t being portrayed in that way

  34. NickP,

    Remember this from the outgoing Labour Treasury team?:

    ‘Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left,’

  35. steve2

    Ah, ol’ David Laws of the sense of humpor bypass and hos own scrupulous approach to finance. The Guardian covered that well:

    The former chief secretary to the Treasury, Liam Byrne, has reignited criticism of Labour’s stewardship of the economy with a note for his successor which said “there’s no money left”.

    Byrne’s note was discovered by David Laws, the Liberal Democrat MP who was appointed by the coalition government to succeed Byrne as No 2 at the Treasury.

    It is a convention for outgoing ministers to leave a note for their successors with advice on how to settle into the job. But Byrne’s note – which he later said was intended as a private joke – drew attention to Labour’s economic record when it was revealed by Laws at a press conference today.

    Laws told reporters: “When I arrived at my desk on the very first day as chief secretary, I found a letter from the previous chief secretary to give me some advice, I assumed, on how I conduct myself over the months ahead.

    “Unfortunately, when I opened it, it was a one-sentence letter which simply said: ‘Dear chief secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left,’ which was honest but slightly less helpful advice than I had been expecting.”

    The letter recalls a similar note left by Tory Reginald Maudling to his Labour successor James Callaghan in 1964: “Good luck, old cock … Sorry to leave it in such a mess.”

    Byrne said the message was meant in jest. “My letter was a joke, from one chief secretary to another,” he said. “I do hope David Laws’s sense of humour wasn’t another casualty of the coalition deal.”

    Treasury sources said the full text of the letter from Byrne – dated 6 April, the day Gordon Brown called the general election – was: “Dear chief secretary, I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards – and good luck! Liam.”

    Byrne’s notes have caused bemusement before. When he was promoted to the cabinet in 2008, he gave officials a set of instructions entitled Working with Liam Byrne, which included the lines: “Coffee/Lunch. I’m addicted to coffee. I like a cappuccino when I come in, an espresso at 3pm and soup at 12.30-1pm … If I see things that are not of acceptable quality, I will blame you.”

    Gary Gibbon of Channel 4 News claimed today that former chancellor Alistair Darling had also left a note for his successor, George Osborne, as well as a bottle – but, in Gibbon’s words, “no revolver”.

  36. Steve2

    A bad joke but one that’s been done before, but only David laws publicized that joke and tried to make political capital out of friendly banter

  37. craig

    I’ll just say it again: comparing Hitler and Stalin’s mass-extermination policies to the evils of “capitalism” is utterly ludicrous.

    You need to develop a sense of realism I feel. Those sort of comparisons are incredibly distasteful to most of us here.

  38. It was from Liam Byrne not from the “Labour Treasury Team”. It was, rather obviously, an attempt at good humoured welcome to the job.

    I’m not a big fan of Byrne, but rather like the “Brown sold all our gold for tuppence” and other similar online recurrent and tiresome jibes, it’s hardly ever relevant or useful to discussion except to try to score some points.

  39. The three main parties seem to want to brush off real issues like the EU and immigration as a mid-term protest when really, many places in the UK are experiencing the damaging effects, by 2015, assuming the three parties do not address these issues, we should see UKIP polling at least 25% of the national vote.

  40. I think the Bryne incident is a good example of why the majority of the public are disinterested if not disenchanted with politics and politicians.

    It might not have been a good joke, but it was a joke, but the mock indignation that permeates or politics means that every utterance of an opponent must be portrayed as a disaster or a disgrace.

    Thus even the insignificant is made into a drama with the focus of politics on scoring points rather than winning arguments.

    I find Labour in Scotland self defeatingly negative but nothing irritates me more than when after two Labour figures say slightly differing things and an “SNP Spokesperson” says;

    “This shows Labour are in complete disarray”

    This is of course nonsense but it doesn’t stop it from happening on a daily basis, even though in an attempt to get a hit on a political opponent we undermine the political process.

    That’s why I am nice to you all… Except The Other Howard, because he is to the right of Attila the Hun!

    Peter.

  41. @paulcroft
    Not so ludicrous from an African perspective, the slave trade etc.

  42. Peter

    You are wrong to compare the other Howard to Attila the hun

  43. Attila was quite a nice guy compared to his contemporaries

  44. Howard

    Sorry, I couldn’t resist, but it’s true about Attila

  45. @PeterCairns
    “I think the Bryne incident is a good example of why the majority of the public are disinterested if not disenchanted with politics and politicians.

    It might not have been a good joke, but it was a joke, but the mock indignation that permeates or politics means that every utterance of an opponent must be portrayed as a disaster or a disgrace.”

    Yes, this was obviously meant to be a joke. The reason some people are outraged is that bringing the country to the brink of financial ruin is not really a joking matter.

  46. PeterCairns, RiN

    Another couple has to descend to personal abuse when they meet someone who disagrees. I am nothing like Attila at all. If you read my posts you will actually see that i am just an economic realist who favours freedom over state control. Quite the reverse of Attila in fact. I don’t mind you being rude it tends to be the last resort of those who know they are wrong but cannot admit it. So it makes me smile.

  47. Thank God its in much better shape now!

  48. @Greg

    I believe it is as some of the action needed has been taken by this government, not enough by a long way of course, in my opinion.

  49. Now I’m sure I’ve heard the two Ed’s say the welfare bill needs to be cut, as they’ve apposed every so called welfare cut the coalition has brought in, can anybody enlighten me as to what exactly the Labour policy is on cutting the welfare bill.
    As to the much used words “savage cuts” the welfare bill is set to rise year by year for the life of this Parliment all be it at a slower pace of 1%, does this amount to a cut or an increase in welfare spending, given the government will be spending more on welfare in 2014-2015 than now.

  50. @Turk

    Absolutely right.

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