YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 13%. While we have seen much higher from other online companies, it is the highest UKIP score that YouGov have shown so far. All the usual caveats apply: one should never get too excited about a record breaking score as it will almost always be a bit of an outlier. What counts is the underlying trend, and these figures underline the ongoing increase in UKIP support, and indeed the recent modest recovery in YouGov’s Lib Dem support.


595 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 12, UKIP 13”

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  1. @TOH

    I think AW said something like this is not a poll but views of some people who feel strongly about the issue. I don’t remember him saying anything about people finding the issue hilarious. Generally people can’t be bothered to take part but this issue has obviously touched people judging by the rate at which this petition is being signed. The figure now is 305,018.

  2. @LizH

    You believe what you want if it makes you happy.

  3. @TOH

    I will and it does.

  4. I’m holding off watching Game of Thrones until I’ve read the books. I’m on number 2 (Clash of Kings).

    I think I’ll go and read it now.

  5. @ Dayle

    I think AW can do it for you if you are unable to do it yourself. Something in the settings on your account but didn’t look like I could do it myself.

  6. Colin

    “Look at Balls’ reaction to GO’s speech today, which may be summarised as……”

    My impression of Balls is [Snippity snip]

    Which is why I believe that EM would be well advised to move heaven & earth to get Darling back into the job at the earliest opportunity. His hand would be strengthened immensely.

    Sooner or later, Labour are going to have to outline their financial strategy and AD is the one to do that in a way that people might believe it. He is not tainted with the 2008 crash, he argues a good case & he doesn’t look like a night club bouncer!

    Frankly, Cameron will have a similar problem, if something doesn’t happen in the next year. In his case, I would bet on Hammond as the strongest contender.
    Darling v. Hammond. Two very able & very polite politicians

  7. LizH
    That petition is irrelevant. Anthony has already said so, and why. So what is the point of referring to it?

    Now if those people also signed the one to get Richard of York buried in York, they might be doing something useful. lol

  8. How often does a petition get 300,000 + signatures in 24 hours. Did the anti Iraq war get signed as quickly? And no, I haven’t signed it

  9. Robert Newark

    “….Darling v. Hammond. Two very able & very polite politicians”

    Wholeheartedly agree. This line-up would improve the quality of the debate considerably. However, it might be too cerebral for the electorate in a GE, so I guess EdM might stick with his “populist bruiser” (who I think is actually much more effective at communicating a simple message than folk here give him credit for). Similarly DC is probably too loyal to ditch GO, unless of course GO is actually unhappy as Chancellor now, which I suspect. But – where would you move GO to that isn’t a demotion?

  10. What is this Game of Thrones thing that everyone here (including AW) is raving about – it has completely passed me by!

  11. @Robert Newark
    “That petition is irrelevant. Anthony has already said so, and why. So what is the point of referring to it?”

    AW did not say it was irrelevant. He said it was not a poll. I mention it because I think it is astonishing how quickly the numbers signing up to it is rising. Currently 311,019.

  12. Richard in Norway – the Iraq War is a fine example actually of how such things are a hopeless measure of public opinion. Filling in a petition online takes very little effort. In the case of the Iraq war hundreds of thousands of people went to the great effort of actually going to London and marching against it, a considerable contribution of their time and effort. They were still not representative of the wider public, who the polling at the time showed supported the war.

    Robert – this is really not the place for your own views of Ed Balls. However, in the hope I may be able to lure some of you into discussing actual polling on what the wider public think…

    There isn’t much stuff on Balls himself. However George Osborne’s approval ratings are pretty dire… yet people think he would make a better Chancellor than Balls, implying people are not over-enamoured with Balls either (ask who would make the better Chancellor and you get an overwhelming victory for neither/dk).

    Darling on the other hand received very positive polling at the 2010 election. When asked if people were an asset or a liability to their parties he recorded the most positive rating of any prominent Labour figure and often polled ahead of Osborne on best Chancellor (compare and contrast with Brown lagging behind Cameron)… albeit he was sometimes behind Cable. The potential downside is the fact he was Chancellor in the last Labour government and Labour may be seeking to distance themselves from it, but that’s a strategic consideration for them. I suspect spending the next year carrying out a cross-party role in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign will do him a world of good too.

  13. RR

    Not sure what your point is. A degree is a degree isn’t it? The Ceo & former Finance Director of a Footsie 100 company, I used to work for had a degree in Zoology. It didn’t seem to to be a bar to him making it one of the most successful company’s in Europe, in it’s market. Indeed many people do not follow their degree subject in employment. Just because you get a qualification, doesn’t mean you can apply what you have learned, or indeed convince others that you can.

  14. Apologies Anthony, I thought I was being even handed in my post. Interesting though what the polling says on 3 of the individuals I referred to?

  15. RN

    The Ceo & former Finance Director of a Footsie 100 company, I used to work for had a degree in Zoology. It didn’t seem to to be a bar to him making it one of the most successful company’s in Europe

    Imagine what he could have done if he had a degree in economics.

  16. Quite funny to see the government dismiss this online petition as a stunt. After all, this was the same government that brought in the idea of..er..online petitions as a way to increase democratic participation.

    Or did I miss something?

  17. @AW

    People were consistently against the Iraq war until it became clear we were going to war, and they didn’t want to.be seen as encouraging the ememy. I’m sure the polling reflects this.

    You seem to suggest the demonstations did not reflect widespread disatisfaction with the war. This is an untenable argument

  18. Turgid tosh.

  19. Richard in Norway

    Not quite the same thing but a friend of my son put a clip of his dog doing something funny and it got nearly 800,000 hits in a week I believe he made some money out of that, maybe IDS can get some sort of fee.

  20. I refer to the footy of course – not the daft, partisan banter.

    Roll on an opinion poll though.

  21. In June 2012 IpsosMORI had Balls at 37% compared to Osborne at 29% for ‘who do you think would make the most capable chancellor’… by December they were equal on 34%. I’m assuming they only ask the question every 6 months.

    Meanwhile Osborne is on a -33% satisfaction rating for how the Chancellor is “doing his job”.
    In 37 years of asking this question only Clarke and Lamont have scored lower.

  22. Was that auto-mod?

  23. RR

    Probably not as well. Economists don’t do, they theorise and advise.

  24. @AW

    Would it be possible to in some way highlight words which have triggered auto-moderation – when the posts do appear?

    I am sure I am not the only one who would like to understand the logic.

  25. BillyBob – frankly sometimes I can’t tell myself!

  26. Richard in Norway

    Just for your info I believe the record for most on-line political petition was in 2007 on the PM’s own web site, re Road Pricing which attracted 1.8 million petitioners and was just as pointless.

  27. Thanks AW.

    Maybe Martyn has a theory? He usually does.

  28. @ A Wells.
    “They [the million + marchers] were still not representative of the wider public, who the polling at the time showed supported the war.”

    OK but … . The ICM & many other polls showed a growing opposition to the war during the long build-up to it. The public supported the actual war itself: an unsurprising support for “our boys” while in danger and while the war was going well. Within weeks of the end of the war, some polls registered net opposition? It’s hard to argue that the war, except for a brief period, ever had a popular basis?

    My political friends and I [all pretty old] preferred Darling as Labour leader (while recognising this was never going to happen.) He remained extraordinarily calm in the banking crisis, was relatively honest about the consequences, and he lacks that ineffably tedious, shrill, fake-frothing-indignant tone adopted by most politicians in every party.

  29. Everyone seems to think that we need high skill jobs and that this will help us find a niche in a world where the economic centre of gravity is moving East. There also seems to be agreement that we need firms to invest and provide new jobs.

    So why given these universally acknowledged truths is the way we tax businesses and give them tax reliefs is so little designed to encourage them to invest in the UK, provide high quality training, or create new jobs.

    To give an example, George Osborne wants rich people to come to the UK and business to have lower corporation tax. But is there any reason to think that rich foreigners will want to do more than buy expensive houses and employ foreign domestics and security staff, or that corporations will want to do more than have their headquarters here and invest elsewhere.

    I am not to be honest at all sure what Labour want to do about all this. It has stuck in my mind that they want to reduce VAT. And I can’t really see why this will encourage us to export or invest or train. If it makes it easier to sell things, the best way to make money might indeed be to import cheap goods from abroad.
    But perhaps this is not the plan, and they have something else in mind. The problem is I don’t know what this is.

    And I wonder whether my uncertainties about all this are widely shared, and if this makes the labour lead softer than it otherwise might be.

  30. Robbie – attitudes to invading Iraq were fairly evenly split in 2012, there was a spike of widespread opposition in early 2012 which switched to support in the immediate run up, then strong support in the early weeks of the conflict. You actually get continuing support for quite a long time afterwards, it drops down from overwhelming support in June 2003, but things are more supportive than opposed during the rest of the year, with some spikes up and down. Not until early summer 2004 does opinion really switch decisively against.

    Anyway, to Darling. Surprisingly given his broadly positive ratings in other polls, he doesn’t do that well in polls asking about him as leader. I thought YouGov had done one recently but I can’t track it down, but I can find a ComRes one from 2012 that really didn’t have him doing that well – http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/604/independent-on-sundaysunday-mirror-political-poll.htm

  31. @AW

    please could you make my response background UKIP? :)

  32. TOH

    Perhaps you need to fead my posts in a friendlier tone? Its not difficult.

    “Vlad” was intended as an ironic, supportive comment on the stupidity f someone comparing you to Attila – abeit I’m sure they also intended it humourously.

    However, if my getting the fact that you were washing and not washing UP also gives you cause for upset then cheer up – I shan’t be addressing you personally again as I have no idea at all what is off limits in your world.

  33. @Charles

    The latest incarnation of the Balls’ plan (2013 budget response) included cutting VAT to 5% on “repairs and maintenance”..

    h
    ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21876451

    One thing I noticed was that at the very depth of the downturn when there was no building work at all locally, Lidl shut their store for a month, renewed the carpark/landscaping and refitted the store from roof to floor. It didn’t really need it to be honest, but they must have made a decision that it was the most opportune moment in the business cycle.

  34. RE; the IDS poll – I dont think anyone signing it thinks it will be given serious consideration – people are doing it because they are annoyed at what they see as his crass and out of touch comments and its a way of giving him two fingers. It certainly made me smile.

    What it has done is publicise IDS’ stupid comments and highlight just how little people on benefits have to live on.

  35. @Paul Croft

    Since Peter has not responded to my post i assume his post was meant to be unpleasant. As I said, that sort of approach makes me smile.

    I actually find a lot of your posts quite difficult to understand but if you were being ironic and supportive then, thank you.

    I was not upset at doing the washing, i often do, my wife and i work as a team, she was out buying presents for a granddaughter.

    I was trying to explain why i was posting more than usual when the weather was fine. I usually don’t post when this happens, to much to do with my outdoor surveying and two allotments to keep on the go.

    Have a pleasant evening.

  36. @AW
    could I please have my background made BNP. I always like to start something new.

  37. ROBERT

    Yes I agree about both of them.

    Darling could be a problem for GO .

    Hammond is a favourite of mine & would make good CoE if / when it comes to that.

  38. Anthony

    Can I have my background in black please? People are finding my posts hard to understand.

  39. Can anybody tell me what GO’s popularity is like in his own constituency? On the same note what is Ed B, V Cable and Darling’s popularity in their own constituency? I doubt there’s much info on such things, is there?

  40. Can anybody tell me what GO’s popularity is like in his own constituency? On the same note what is Ed B, V Cable and Darling’s popularity in their own constituency? I doubt there’s much info on such things, is there?

  41. Tony Dean,Game of thrones is a series of books by RR Martin,which has been
    Televised and is on its third series.Think Lord Of The Rings but with sex and
    Violence.Excellently cast and wonderful settings.Totally addictive.

  42. Just five English managers in the Prem – all bottom half. three out of top eight are Scots. Yet Scots footy is rubbish.

    What’s going on?

  43. reginald:

    any idea what GOs popularity is with his own family?

    If he has kids I bet he’s reduced the rise in their pocket money.

  44. @ Anthony

    As one of my previously visible post went in moderation, I apologise and I can see how it would have fuelled partisan exchanges.

  45. @Paulcroft
    That, as the case may be, could be quite true, but then there is the old saying ‘chip off the old block’, so they will probably grin and bear it as their daddy ‘grins and bears’ the figures on his popularity.

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