The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 38%(-5), LDEM 12%(+4), UKIP 14%(+5). There are some significant shifts in all the party’s figures, and unusual figures for most of the parties. The Conservatives are the lowest ComRes have shown them in a telephone poll this Parliament, Labour at the very bottom of their normal range, the Lib Dems their highest for five months, UKIP their highest ever. The broad direction of travel in the figures isn’t surprising, other polls from other companies have also shown UKIP on the rise and the Lib Dems recovering a bit, but the degree of it here is a bit startling. I would advise the usual caution I apply to any poll showing stark changes in party support.
Meanwhile the weekly poll for TNS BMRB is also out tonight. They too show a big jump for UKIP, but in their case not the Lib Dems. Topline figures are CON 27%(+1), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 10%(-3), UKIP 17%(+4), Others 10%(+2).