The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 38%(-5), LDEM 12%(+4), UKIP 14%(+5). There are some significant shifts in all the party’s figures, and unusual figures for most of the parties. The Conservatives are the lowest ComRes have shown them in a telephone poll this Parliament, Labour at the very bottom of their normal range, the Lib Dems their highest for five months, UKIP their highest ever. The broad direction of travel in the figures isn’t surprising, other polls from other companies have also shown UKIP on the rise and the Lib Dems recovering a bit, but the degree of it here is a bit startling. I would advise the usual caution I apply to any poll showing stark changes in party support.

Meanwhile the weekly poll for TNS BMRB is also out tonight. They too show a big jump for UKIP, but in their case not the Lib Dems. Topline figures are CON 27%(+1), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 10%(-3), UKIP 17%(+4), Others 10%(+2).


63 Responses to “New ComRes and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. An odd set of figures from ComRes right enough. Prudence says we should wait and see.

    Do ComRes prompt for UKIP or have they changed their methodology in any way.

    Peter.

  2. Peter – as far as I can tell (and don’t take this as gospel, I’m only going by looking at their tabs) the answers are No and No.

  3. I am always reluctant to draw too many conclusions based on just a few polls….but it looks as though both the Tories and Labour are losing pretty significantly to UKIP. Guess there’s just a general dissatisfaction with the main political parties and UKIP are the main beneficiary at the moment.

  4. No winder Farage is going round with a permanent grin on his face.

  5. These figures would see a Labour Majority of about 100 with the actual number of others actually dropping.

    Peter.

  6. Anytime the media focus is on the Eurozone, UKIP surge. Farage probably can’t wait until next year.

  7. @PeterCairns,

    “These figures would see a Labour Majority of about 100 with the actual number of others actually dropping.”

    Yep. A Labour majority of 110 on a UNS.

    IMO, if nothing else, recent polling has dispelled the myth that both the Tories and Labour have a core or ‘solid’ vote of 32-33 and 41-43 respectively (not that I ever believed that to be true). The main problem for UKIP is that they will not get the same level of election coverage as the three main parties. This will be a major disadvantage come election day.

  8. @Ambivalent S

    “The main problem for UKIP is that they will not get the same level of election coverage as the three main parties. This will be a major disadvantage come election day.”

    I really can’t see that being a disadvantage. Not for UKIP anyway.

  9. Colin,

    “No winder Farage is going round with a permanent grin on his face.”

    He could just be a nutter.

    Oddly enough we had a series of attacks on the UK obsession with immigration policy at the SNP conference.

    On Sunday we had a debate where 14 candidates for the EU list were reduced to a list of six to be ranked by the party rank and file using OMOV.

    The fourteen included two Asians a Frenchman and an Italian.

    From a tactical point of view if UKIP is on the rise largely on the back of fears on immigration and everyone else is moving this way saying the opposite and standing on a platform of one Scotland for all, is a good place to be.

    Peter.

  10. @RAF,

    “I really can’t see that being a disadvantage. Not for UKIP anyway.”

    Possibly. I guess I am assuming (maybe wrongly?) that in politics a lack of coverage means that there is a danger that you fail to make an adequate impression amongst voters i.e. you are forgotten. But, as you say, I guess it’s possible that it might not work out like that. Either way, I expect UKIP to continue rising until at least after the European elections in 2014.

  11. …and UKPR average updated! Con 29, Lab 39, LD 11.

  12. The 2009 local election vote shares were:

    Con 38%, Lab 23%, LD 28%, UKIP ?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2009

    On these polling numbers, 2nd May 2013 is going to be a shocker of a night for the Conservatives, and the LDs.

  13. The Conservatives raised the spectre of immigration and benefit scroungers at the last general election… traditional themes during recessionary times. The constant drumbeat by goverment and media is largely a distraction… the positives and negatives of immigration and fraud in the benefit system are really irrelevant in the overall context of welfare/NHS/housing/economic concerns facing the country.

    Opinion polling has been picking up on the distorted prominence and gross misconceptions surrounding these dog wistle themes, encouraging politicians and the media to keep them at the forefront.

    UKIP is now reaping the rewards.

  14. Even more amusing is this

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/25/cyprus-bailout-dijsselbloem-chaos-markets

    I’m continually staggered by the incompetence displayed by the EZ finance ministers, but this takes the biscuit. Suggesting that despite all the previous statements, the Cypriot bail out could be used as the template for other bail outs elsewhere. Cue deposit withdrawals over E100,000 and share price falls.

    The clarification later in the day reversed this, but it’s too late. The minute any other EZ country appears to be getting into trouble, the deposits will flow out and hasten any crisis.

    As I’ve said before, these guys are really good at what they do.

  15. Anthony

    I do hope you weren’t the YouGov source quoted in the Guardian as saying “Each project is discrete: we just work very closely with clients to get their unbiased questions. We’re experienced with polling for both sides in an election: it’s familiar territory for us.” about the poll questions that YouGov asked on behalf of both campaigns in Macbeth’s country.

    Both poll results are on the YouGov site.

    Each side’s debate question is wholly partial, and none of Better Together’s questions could reasonably be described as impartial!

  16. I give up with this site.

  17. @ Alec

    Cue deposit withdrawals over E100,000 and share price falls.
    ——————–
    The wealthy only invest in risky or productive ventures when they fear they’ll lose their money. The only ‘animal spirit’ which drives investment is fear. What will shift the economy is fear that governments will tax, inflate away or allow banks to crash; the fear of the wealthiest individuals & corporations that they will lose their cash may well be good for the economy.

  18. Old Nat

    I give up with this siteI

    ……………………………………………………………………………..

    Jolly good.
    ……………………………………………………………………………….

  19. @ Old Nat

    What’s up?

  20. Sun_Politics tweet
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 30%, LAB 41%, LD 13%, UKIP 11%. Libs at highest in 4 months. Are they back on the up?

  21. “I’m not really too interested in what got said in their press conference – or in ours to be honest”.

    Great quote from Steven Gerrard – so pleased he is, at long last, a fixture as England captain.

  22. Alec
    I’ll try this once (and no more).

    Dijsselbloem says tonight that he didn’t even know the meaning of the English word ‘template’ and thus could not have used it . So who’s doing the translating? How many fluent Dutch speakers do you know in the international press?

    Now doesn’t that tell *you* something?

    Btw My daughter in NL was watching an UK channel this evening and his name is apparently pronounced as Dissel -bum. (lots of smileys)

  23. Daily Mail writing against private patients being subsidised by the NHS. Wonders will never cease.

    “Foreign private patients pay tens of thousands of pounds for livers donated to the NHS. King’s College NHS Foundation Trust carried out 19 operations in 2 years [since 2011 when restrictions were removed]. It is believed the trust has been paid around £1m for the operations. The organs have been given to fee paying non EU patients. There are currently 550 NHS patients awaiting a life saving transplant.”

  24. Peter Cairns

    FPT

    The point I made was that an unholy alliance if Cypriot politicians and EZ policymakers (read “Schaueble”) have put together a deal which means that Schaueble gets what he wants (default and exit averted AND he is acting the tough guy against the Russian hoods) and the Cypriot parliament had avoided having to give its stamp of approval.

    Now, had a deal been reached which required Parliamentary approval, the Cypriot politicians would have had to answer to their electorate. And they may well have decided that, pit in such a position, they would prefer to go the exit, default and reconstruction route.

    As it is, the EZ and Cypriot Govt have together foisted a guaranteed decade-long Depression on Cyprus, with (so far as I can see) no democratic recourse to ratify or challenge the decision.

    Alec.

    The 100k issue is perhaps a secondary issue if you take the following viewpoint. Maybe the last few days have seen the de facto end of the Euro, and the rank amateurish comments from Holland have spooked the markets because they fear THIS solution being imposed on Italy, Spain, Portugal and wherever else, rather than the 100k+ tax.

    http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1054-capital-controls-in-cyprus-the-end-of-target2/#.UVDgoWQgGc3

    Stupidity and fumbling on a frightening and historic scale over the last couple of weeks, I fear. (And in the middle of the night, what REALLY scares me is the effect of this German muscle-flexing on long-term – or maybe even just medium-term – relations between Europe and Russia. That really IS the stuff of nightmares.)

  25. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 30%, LAB 41%, LD 13%, UKIP 11%. Libs at highest in 4 months.
    ——–
    Okay, so Labour will be 9 points ahead again on YG’s release notes. ;-)

  26. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-21923218

    Now this IS amusing: even I, a geometry duffer, know that square flapjacks have four, lethal corners and triangles just three. Maybe they are regarded as too sharp.

    I’d eat them any shape.

  27. Howard

    Picture the scene. A Dutch version of Malcolm Tucker using simple Anglo-Saxon words that yon Finance Minister cannot possibly mis-interpret to “encourage” him to go out and put the toothpaste back in the f***ing tube before the world ends and he has to personally answer to St Peter and all the angels as Lucifer sharpens his claws in the background.

    I think a claim of linguistic uncertainty would be a sensible cover story. Although it would be more convincing if it wasn’t coming from the most poly-glot nation on Earth.

    Occam’s Razor for me. A politician has just seen the resolution of 15 stressful days go in the direction that he wanted. And, exhausted, he let his guard down for a moment, forgetting the fragility of the situation.

  28. Paul C

    See, I have a different take on the “Elf ‘n’ Safety gorn maad” line.

    Remember the furore about banning conkers in school? As a 13 year old, I was smashed in the eye by one half of my vanquished opponent’s flimsy excuse for a conker. I spent 4 nights in hospital having temporarily lost the sight of one eye. When the sight slowly returned, it was blurred for months and never quite came back to 20/20. A promising cricket career was halted (although, I admit, a previously noted inability to land the ball on the cut stuff when bowling, or to resist sprinting off to Square Leg when batting against quickies may have had a minor part in my failure to live up to potential.

    Anyway, I’m all for protecting our kids. I wouldn’t want them to go my way. The fact that I’ve had imperfect vision in my right eye for 30-odd years has left me constantly looking leftwards. And that has totally screwed up my pitical aspirations throughout my adult life.

  29. It seems to me that in recent times there has been a new axis of opinion over the EU (in addition to the normal left-right) which has two smaller parties at each end, one firmly yes and one firmly no, and two larger parties in a sort of er-um-dont-know state between them, primarily because they have more to lose by picking the wrong option. Perhaps the small rise in LD support is due to some voters choosing “yes” to Europe, no matter what?

    Dijsselbloem’s interjection seems to have confirmed the already nervous state of EU banks: It seems likely to me that the pot of money for old-style bailouts is not endless, so something else (Cyprus style bailouts) needs to happen for the next stage of the Euro crisis. If it wasn’t him, then someone else would have said it, or else it would have just happened anyway.

    As others have noted, every time the strains in the EU become apparent, UKIP gets more support.

  30. Lefty

    That is a moving story and I am suitwobbly moved.

    However conkers are grown specifically for playing “conkers” so safety goggles should always be used.

    En el otro mano, yer flapjack is made for eating, not throwing, ergo Elfin Safety should not be an issue.

    They will want rubber edging on plates next. Surely best to discipline the little rascals more thoroughly?

  31. Monty Panesar did it again!

  32. LDs 13% is the highest with YouGov since the tuition fee meltdown – it could just be MOE around 11%, but some good news for the LDs?

  33. Just thought about this, but does anybody remember Survation having Con 4 pts in the lead in Eastleigh? Coupled with the LDs being neck-and-neck in Oldham and Saddleworth, it has to call into question that firm’s accuracy or usefulness as pollsters.

  34. @CLAD
    “Sun_Politics tweet YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 30%, LAB 41%, LD 13%, UKIP 11%. Libs at highest in 4 months. Are they back on the up?”

    We’ve been on the up for a while. We bottomed out with yougov around May last year and have been rising in the polls since mid November. 13 has been within the MOE for a few weeks now.

  35. @ Dave B

    “On these polling numbers, 2nd May 2013 is going to be a shocker of a night for the Conservatives, and the LDs.”

    But Dave, bear in mind that many contests are LD v Con. It will be interesting to see if the pattern of Con losses to Labour are mitigated by Con gains from LD as happened in locals since 2010 – or will LDs now fend off Con gains from them better than they did in previous locals since 2010. I suspect given small evidence of local by-elections since their Eastleigh hold, that LDs will hold on better in LD v Con contests, thus giving the Cons a rather worse night – but we shall have to see?!

  36. Wow,

    That’s the LibDems at an Amazing 56% of their 2010 vote…
    Go back to your constituencies and prepare your dodgy graphs.

    Peter.

  37. @Nick P

    OE&S was Survation’s first venture into political opinion polling I think. On balance their record in byelection polling is not that much worse or better than any other pollster venturing into these volatile low-turnout contests… you could equally ask why Ashcroft/Populus had Con ahead of UKIP by 21% (1st poll) and 7% (2nd poll) in Eastleigh.

  38. PETER CAIRNS

    @”He could just be a nutter.”

    Yep-why would he be different to any other politician ?

  39. LEFTY

    @”Now, had a deal been reached which required Parliamentary approval, the Cypriot politicians would have had to answer to their electorate”

    As I understand it, the reason that no further political decisions were required on Cyprus , is because this arrangement uses the ” the Bank Resolution Framework,”.

    I believe that this is part of Banking & Monetary regulation-ie this restructuring did not involve Deposit Guarantee payments by the State , but was orchestrated by the Central Bank of Cyprus & ECB.

  40. How does Lin Homer survive ?

  41. @Colin

    Thanks I’ve just caught up with her career to date on Wikipedia. It’s quite a read.

    The question that occurs to me, is who keeps appointing her to these positions?

    Indeed, what must the rest of the field been like?

  42. Colin

    I’m sure that is a convenient face-saver for Cypriot politicians. It means that they don’t have to give their imprimatur to this deal.

    But it also means that the most important decision in the last 40 years for that country is being taken in the absence of any democratic control. And so a debate about whether it is in Cyprus’s best interests to remain in the Euro with the consequent certainty of a decade-long Depression, or leave and follow the Iceland model to rapid recovery is simply being by-passed.

    Politicians covering their backs, allowing a deal that is in the interests of the EZ but probably not in the interests of Cypriots. Democracy is not coming out of this crisis with its reputation enhanced.

  43. PS.

    As several commentators have noted, Cyprus outside the EZ would actually be much better placed than Iceland to bounce back. With a devalued currency, they would experience a mega-tourism boom. In fact, that would facilitate a rather large movement of funds from Northern Europe directly into the Cypriot economy…

  44. When the banks in Cyprus reopen the regulators are likely to find a Liam bryne note “sorry the money has gone” it seems that in the week when normal Cypriots couldn’t get at their cash, wealthy foreigners were withdrawing theirs! So the haircuts for the remaining mostly Cypriot depositors will be larger, most likely total loss

  45. Lefty

    I’m also outraged that the Cypriots didn’t get to vote. Oh I understand the reasoning but it’s still not right

  46. “@Colin

    How does Lin Homer survive ?”

    Could it be that Lin is the top female civil servant ? In my opinion a man in the same role would not be protected as much, if the department they were running was judged to have failed.

    But having said that, HMRC must be one of the most difficult departments to run. So many companies set up complex business models to avoid tax, that it must make the job almost impossible. I think there needs to be a new international agreement about the tax treatment of companies who operate in more than one country.

    The UK has very relaxed tax rules and very good accountants, so may be one of the easiest countries to avoid tax. I have read of foreign citizens coming to the UK for periods and while they are resident, setting up various ways of avoiding tax. I don’t think they come here for the weather !

  47. CLOUDSPOTTER

    It’s an exclusive club I think.

    Once you’re in , they can’t chuck you out.

  48. LEFTY

    Indeed.

    But there is no “Democracy” in EZ when the chips are down.

    This is how it will be formalised when they achieve fiscal union-so they should get used to it.

    Obey the rules-or else.

  49. They chucked Brodie out.

    Should being criticised by the Select Committee for your how you did your old job a year or two after you have left your old job mean you should lose your new job?

    Wonder what the courts would think?

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