Today part of the country (or at least, a British dependency) actually has an election – the Falklands have a referendum on whether they wish to remain British. The result is a formality of course, people there will overwhelmingly vote to remain British, but what do people in Britain itself and Argentina think?

YouGov and Ibarometro have carried out parallel polling on the issue this week in Britain and Argentina – full results are here. There is a broad perception that the issue matters rather more to Argentina than Britain, only 1% of British people pick the Falklands as one of the most important international issues facing the country, 24% of Argentinians do. Asked directly about Falklands 54% of British respondents think it is an important issue to Britain, 67% of Argentinians think it is an important issue to Argentina.

Unsurprisingly 62% of Argentinians think that the fairest solution to the issue would be for the islands to become Argentinian, 20% would support joint-sovereignty. Only 4% think they should remain British. For British respondents 40% want the islands to remain British, 28% think they should become independent (presumably respondents who don’t realise just how few people live there!), 13% would support shared sovereignty, only 4% think the islands should become Argentinian. There is very little crossover there.

Asked what they think actually will happen there is less contrast. 61% of British respondents think the islands will remain British, 37% of Argentinian respondents think they will remain British. Despite the fuss made over the Islands by the Argentine government (actions that are supported by most Argentinians – 53% think their government is doing a good job on the issue), only 25% of Argentinians think the islands actually will end up becoming Argentinian.

Turning to the referendum this week, British respondents overwhelmingly think that the Falkland Islanders should have a say on their future (88% think they should, 4% do not). Argentinian respondents do not – only 15% think the Falkland Islanders should have a say, 59% do not. Asked who should have the final say on the Islands’ future, 74% of British respondents think it should be down to the islanders themselves. Argentinian respondents were more divided, but the most popular option was for a international organisation to make the decision (36%).


147 Responses to “YouGov/Ibarometro survey on the Falklands”

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  1. @OldNat
    The polls had pretty accurately predicted the collapse of the Lib Dem vote in Scotland in 2011.

    I’ve no doubt that Lord Ashcroft’s poll is reflecting the likelihood of LD collapse now.

  2. Jay blanc and R in N
    Thank you both. Of course as an ordinary Joe (do not know anything about plumbing) I try to hold what I think will be most useful when I will spend it. My euros in my Dutch bank make life easy when I go on holiday, and my £s are where we spend most of our money, the single greatest expenditure being on my County Council and its accolyte lower Councils and Authorities…

    In any case, most of what i have, in any currency, will not be of benefit to me but to those who are in my will.

    I suppose most people are not like me in that the currency issue is academic.

    So I conclude the value of the £ is not a UK political issue.

  3. John Ruddy

    If you are saying that Westminster voting is best reflected in polling for Holyrood – I’ll take that any day!

  4. @Eddie, Have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_%28United_Kingdom%29

    Basically you take the rise of one party’s vote and the fall of the other’s and average them.

  5. Thanks GreenChristian
    so my Con -10% Lab +1% example is a swing to Lab of 5.5%. And a swing figure in isolation doesn’t tell you if it’s predominantly made up of one party losing or another party gaining.

  6. …or both parties losing, but one losing harder than the other.

  7. Howard

    Of course the value of the pound is a political issue, if the pound falls to a 1 to 1 ratio with the dollar and substains that for any length of time it would mean the end of any of the parties in power at that time. Inflation would go through the roof!!! Of course it will be difficult for osborne and carney to time that plunge in the pound, ideally for the cons it would happen a few months after they lose the next election. Ok im just kidding

  8. Matthew d’Ancona in the Telegraph describes the various plots and leadership plans in the Tory party as ‘..gutless prancing around by this once sturdy party’.

    The loss of discipline and confidence in Tory ranks was something I posted about quite a few times while they were still in opposition, and I’ve seen nothing since to convince me that this Tory party is nothing like the Tory party of old.

    The key thing about talk of leadership challenges is not about the detail of plots, or who is going for what. It’s the simple fact that we are hearing about it at all. A party that expects victory doesn’t do plots. Leadership only becomes an issue once the party believes they have nothing to fear from the incumbent leader – in other words, when they believe their leader is going to lose.

    Tories believe 2015 is lost. While Tories can be wrong – they believed they were going to win big in 2010 – a lack belief in politics often becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I’m beginning to suspect that we will see a tired Tory party sit on it’s hands in 2015 and wonder why it should bother.

  9. What a spectacular place Shetland is…

    @Alec

    The Tory party don’t do plots?
    Ehem – 1950s – McMillan; 1990 ish, Geoffrey Howe/Michael Hestletine/Mrs T; 1990s – John Redwood/John Major/ Mchael Portillo/ William Hague.

    They do plots just like everyone else when trouble surfaces. The difference is, for most of the 20th Century, they dominated the levers of power so appeared more united.

  10. RAF

    Shetland is certainly spectacular. Unfortunately, the script, characterisation and accents were spectacularly bad!

  11. @Raf – I never said they don’t do plots – they always have. But they used to do them properly, with the required brutality. In between time, they were loyal, until they next needed to be disloyal.

    This time there is no clear challenger and no plot will likely happen – this is the ‘gutless prancing’.

    On Shetland – yes, it is magnificent, but it was completely irksome that the BBC couldn’t do what the makers of The Killing did, and actually bother to capture the atmosphere.

    Up Helly Aa takes place in January. You don’t see flowers in meadows, have sunlight at school home time, hear breeding birds, or sit outside at night drinking beers in January in Shetland.

    For some daft, daft reason, the BBC decided to film this in June. Shetland in June is mesmeric, but in a totally different way. They managed to turn a dark, savage and brooding atmosphere into something more like midsummer and endless soft daylight, but in wooly hats. In doing this, they managed to ruin the key atmospheric that underpins the story. All because some prancing London media [email protected] didn’t want to get cold on set.

  12. @OldNat

    I liked the overall feel. And the story is involving. I certainly want to know what happens even though I think it’s pretty obvious. The characterisation is a bit thin, but I suppose it’s only a two-parter.

    As fot the accents, are any of the characters actually from Shetland? I know the main character is glaswegian.

  13. It’s official – tonight’s key word is ‘prancing’.

    @oldnat – that as well

  14. Alec

    LOL

    It was produced by ITV for BBC One, so what else would you expect?

  15. RAF

    Most of the characters are supposed to be Shetlanders – that’s the whole basis of the book. The detective is a returning Shetlander.

    This is how the TV Times presented the programme

    http://www.shetnews.co.uk/newsbites/6436-where-s-shetland

  16. @Alec

    “On Shetland – yes, it is magnificent, but it was completely irksome that the BBC couldn’t do what the makers of The Killing did, and actually bother to capture the atmosphere.”

    Yes, that was unfortunate. Actually, it’s worse. Only the exteriors were actually filmed on Shetland. The interiors were shot in Barrhead, Glasgow.

    “Up Helly Aa takes place in January. You don’t see flowers in meadows, have sunlight at school home time, hear breeding birds, or sit outside at night drinking beers in January in Shetland.
    For some daft, daft reason, the BBC decided to film this in June. Shetland in June is mesmeric, but in a totally different way. They managed to turn a dark, savage and brooding atmosphere into something more like midsummer and endless soft daylight, but in wooly hats. In doing this, they managed to ruin the key atmospheric that underpins the story. All because some prancing London media [email protected] didn’t want to get cold on set.”

    Yes, but I already knew this would happen, as it was in the Radio Times. Maybe there are logistical/travel problems shooting on Shetland in the winter. The story goes that the locals re-staged Up Helly Aa in the summer to accommodate the filming. But I agree that in doing so,it, probably failed to capture the real atmosphere at the heart of the story.

  17. @ Alec

    Up Helly Aa takes place in January.
    ——————-
    Ach, Alec – if Shetlanders are like the rest of us Scots, they’ll be happy to have a big drink & burn some boats at any time of the year. ;-)

  18. RAF

    Foul calumnies!

    Barrhead isn’t in Glasgow, and some of the filming was done in Irvine.

  19. @Old Nat
    ” Most of the characters are supposed to be Shetlanders – that’s the whole basis of the book. The detective is a returning Shetlander.”

    Yes. I was merely pointing out that Douglas Henshall, who plays Detective Jimmy Perez, is from Glasgow (although he left Glasgow for London).

    TV producers always do this sort of thing. There was a book I really, liked at school called “All The King’s Men”, loosely based on the life of Huey Long, the populist Governer of Louisiana in the 1920s. Hollywood,turned it, into a film in 1949, and it, was remade a few years ago. In the remake, very few of the main characters has Louisiana,or, even Southern accents. At least Anthony Hopkins didn’t even try! Again, time and place was crucial to the story. But the producers thought, let’s get Sean Penn and Anthony Hopkins to play the main characters and stuff the atmosphere.

  20. @OldNat

    ” Foul calumnies!
    Barrhead isn’t in Glasgow, and some of the filming was done in Irvine.”

    Blame the Radio Times. I believe what I read ;)

  21. RAF

    Agreed. If you haven’t read the book, or seen the location, then you could believe anything.

    No matter how crap the programme actually is, it should increase the Shetland tourist trade.

  22. @OldNat
    ” RAF
    Agreed. If you haven’t read the book, or seen the location, then you could believe anything.
    No matter how crap the programme actually is, it should increase the Shetland tourist trade.”

    Well, I understand the writer was involved in the production. The writer is not a native Shetlander, but did get a job on Fair Isle after leaving Uni, and has visited Shetland for the past 35 years. I’m sure therefore that she has some understanding of how the work should be filmed.

    As for me, one of my favourite singers is originally from Shetland. That’s led to me studying more about the place, and trying to arrange a visit there. I therefore some idea of the location, but none really about the general populace of, the islands.

    Ultimately, people who know Shetland well (like you and Alec) may be disappointed. Whereas people with limited knowledge but an interest in the place, will just become more curious. As you imply any publicity is good publicity.

  23. RAF

    “As you imply any publicity is good publicity.”

    I did more than imply! Scotland is getting a tourism boost from “Brave”, and that’s just a cartoon.

  24. Welfare cap is in the news on the back of the Church criticism of the cuts.

    I think the Tories might appear to “win” this argument, while they underline their “nasty party” rep.

    Tactical win but strategic mistake?

  25. I would think the chances of Cameron surviving as leader have taken a marginal hit in recent days. The main defence from his supporters has been that any leadership election would be chaotic for the party – or from Nick Robinson this morning, that Nick Clegg could use it as an opportunity to sneak to the Palace with Ed Miliband.

    Hague has said that he regretted some of the changes he made to rules for leadership elections in 1998. It is now condsidered to be too easy for a minority of MPs to depose a leader who still enjoys support from the membership – but subsequent reviews have failed to make changes.

    Alec Douglas-Home was elected in a poll of cabinet ministers conducted by the Lord Chancellor, Heath was the first leader to be elected by MPs. IDS the first to win in a final round of party membership votes.

    Between now and the general election Cameron can survive unchallenged, or survive a challenge by winning a vote of confidence from his MPs. If he loses the general election he will then resign – this makes the positioning of leadership candidates rather dispiriting – Cameron will go later rather than sooner.

    If Cameron did win an OM for the Tories in 2015 his position would be theoretically be stronger, but campaigning for continued EU membership in a referendum is just one instance of his inability to carry a large section of the party with him… just how large this section is makes all the difference, if there are enough of them they may conclude win or lose Cameron should go sooner rather than later.

  26. @Oldnat
    I made no mention of Lord Ashcroft’s poll reflecting Holyrood voting – in reality the poll is showing what has happened on the ground, and was reflected at the 2011 election for the Lib dems, ie a collapse across the board, with a handful of seats saved.

    The Lib Dems position in Scotland has not changed materially since 2010, and the ashcroft poll confirms that.

  27. Nobody got back to me about my question as to whether this was a voodoo or serious poll. The link is
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3709294.ece#tab-1 but as I am not a The Times subscriber and I missed the paper last Saturday I cannot read it all. Can anyone advise
    (a) Was this a serious poll conducted by a serious company?
    (b) Where can I access the findings?

  28. Liam Fox in the news saying education, NHS and foreign aid should not be ringfenced.

  29. Given we are up to the third referendum on the EU soon and that Scottish devolution took two referendums, do the Falkland islanders really think a referendum solves anything other than a snapshot on the day?

    Were both views given equal time and print to ensure adequate understanding before the referendum?

  30. Does anybody think that Millibands insistance in calling efforts to control the money spent on housing and welfare taxes could rebound on them.
    We’ve had the bedroom tax and now the mummy tax does this mean any effort to control the welfare bill will now be called a tax by the opposition, if so I presume if they get in power unless they reverse these so called taxes which is unlikely, they will be supporting these so called taxes, or if indeed they trim the welfare bill or NHS will those cuts be seen as taxes something of course they would deny in power.

  31. Malta has just elected a Labour government for the first time in 15 years. I was in Malta this winter and the polls were all pointing to a Labour victory so in this case the polls were correct – although I think they slightly underestimated the Labour win. My friends out there were Labour supporters they were keen on their policy of reducing energy prices.

    So another Socialist government in Europe.

  32. I have just had a further look at Lord Ashcroft’s polling of Lib Dem v Con marginals. Something has suddenly occurred to me. Although he asks a supplementary question about taking local candidates into account (which then shows a 13% improval in LD ratings) as far as I can tell he does not ACTUALLY NAME the sitting MPs name. I wonder if name recognition might cause a further slight shift causing the +13% to be even higher once an actual name is before them on the ballot paper?

  33. @Tony Dean

    Details here:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/03/only-7-of-tory-members-think-cameron-can-win-a-majority-in-2015.html

    So no, not a serious poll, just people who use the conservative home website who chose to answer a survey monkey poll who said they were conservative members as far as I can tell

  34. Turk

    Maybe ed will introduce a broken supermarket trolley tax!

  35. @Tony Dean

    The ‘poll’ looks like it is still open here

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/5G5CSDW

  36. @TURK

    I think the ‘tax’ is quite clever by EM. As someone said yesterday you only need one good slogan to seal the deal with public perception. I think ‘XXX tax’ works in that it lessens the chance that the Cons will be seen as the party of low taxation which used to be a Con strength.

  37. So Thatcher’s favourite decides he’s been out the news too long and decides to wade into the government spending row himself. Fox really does make himself look a walking spanner sometimes.

  38. TURK

    He can say almost anything at present , because he is not defending any Manifesto commitments .

    That time will come-but until then, attacking every unpopular/painful government policy & characterising them in a way which hurts the government, is risk free for him.

    Whilst OPs show general support for control of Welfare costs, they also show a majority intent to vote Labour.

  39. couper2802

    The last Malta opinion poll was actually pretty accurate. The Malta Today poll (25-28 Feb) showed a 12 point lead for Labour (PL):

    http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/en/newsdetails/news/elections2013/MaltaToday-electoral-survey-20130304#b

    with PL 40.2%, PN 28.2%, AD 2.4% and the rest not voting or undecided. The actual result is PL 55.1%, PN (Nationalists) 43.1%, AD (Greens) 1.8%, so a 12 point lead.

    It’s actually quite impressive/lucky, especially given that I think the paper had to do it themselves – there’s no regular polling company in Malta as far as I know and it would be difficult for an outside company to do because of the need for Maltese speakers (it’s too small for on-line polls). They seem to have adjusted for age and sex but not other factors.

    I was actually a bit surprised that the gap remained as large as ex-PN voters considerably outnumbered ex-PL voters in the undecideds, and usually people will go back “home” to their previous vote. This is particularly true in somewhere like Malta where politics is so partisan and so linked to family, class etc. There wasn’t even a situation where ex-PN voters stayed away from the polls – turnout was only very slightly down at 93% (!).

    The result is the greatest “landslide” in Malta since independence, though, because Maltese politics is like nowhere else in Europe, that is a comparatively small shift in the voting pattern – a swing of 6.3% and a PL majority of 9 in the 67 seat Parliament (as with Italy there is a winner’s top-up depending on circumstance, so the number of seats varies slightly).

    I’m not sure that I would describe PL as particularly ‘Socialist’ though. The new PM, Joseph Muscat, is rather a Tony Blair figure – to be fair if any Labour Party needed modernising it was probably the Maltese one.

  40. Liam Fox’s statement seems rather measured and in tune with what most Tory MP’s are thinking. A freeze on new school and hospital building is well overdue.

  41. @Turk – “Does anybody think that Millibands insistance in calling efforts to control the money spent on housing and welfare taxes could rebound on them.”

    Possibly, but I don’t think so. Different parties can get away with different things, due to the underlying image of them held by voters. Labour will be able to attack benefits in power with less controversy than Tories as people don’t intuitively believe they are trying to slash benefits from an ideological stance.

    An example of this currently are defence cuts. Had a Labour government presided over the redunancies of thousands of fighting men and women, the media would have gone ballistic, with Labour being portrayed as risking national security. Similarly cuts to police budgets. Tories however can get away with these measures as people generally believe they support strong defence and law and order.

    Very often in politics it takes the more aggressive holders of a position to be the ones to effect a reverse in policy. This is often seen particularly in conflict resolution, where moderate parties often struggle to deliver peace deals, as people often don’t trust them sufficiently. The NI peace process was ultimately delivered by the two more extreme parties on each side, as these were the people who could carry off the trick of conceding in key areas without losing their base.

    Labour would be the best party to reform and reduce welfare, even if this means painful cuts. It’s one of the reasons that Blair’s years of power don’t look as successful as they should have done, in my view, as they didn’t really grasp this opportunity.

  42. @NickP

    I see nothing shameful in freezing public expenditure across the board, indeed in the current climate not doing so would be shameful. Nor should anything be ring fenced.

  43. Alec’s post seems right to me (e.g. De Gaulle and Algeria) But I suspect that the conservatives are seen as friends to the old and as these take up a very healthy slice of the welfare budget, it is difficult to slash welfare without being horrid to them. So on this theory conservatives should be cutting benefits to the old and leave the job of cutting benefits to the younger poor to labour. I suspect this is not likely to happen.

  44. @Alec

    hence the Vulcan phrase… “Only Nixon could go to China”

  45. There are lines to be drawn here, however. Somehow I can’t imaging Nigel Farage being the man who eventually takes us into full monetary union….

    On benefits freezes; that really is an interesting question. I’ve seen a BBC news item detailing where the welfare budget goes. Out of £200b, disabled benefits were around £37b, £family and children’s benefits £42b, Jobseekers allowance £5b, and pensioner benefits £85b. The latter group completely dominate the entire welfare budget, so if these are to be protected, the pain will be vastly greater elsewhere.

    In some ways I think this is a false comparison. I don’t actually view pensions themselves as welfare benefits – these are end of life entitlements, which i feel are subtly different to something like JSA or child support, although I would accept this is an arguable distinction. However, other things like free TV licenses and winter fuel payments are out and out benefits, in my view.

    I’ve also posted previously about the difference in the ability of pensioners and working age people to react to cuts. It’s unreasonable to expect an 82 year old to start looking for alternative income to replace lost benefits, whereas for a fit 31 year old there should be a reasonable expectation that effort could be put into finding work or increasing hours.

    So while there are sound practical and ethical reasons for protecting pensioner benefits, there is undoubtedly also a sound case for examining the such benefits up the income scale if we really do need to make savings.

  46. @Alec

    I totally agree with your last paragraph. I buy books and music cd’s with my winter fuel allowance and avoid public transport so I have never had a bus pass. I use my state pension to pay for my private health insurance.

  47. I think that the way we support the elderly is indeed a crucial issue. It’s not only that they take up a massive proportion of the cost of welfare (42% according to Alec’s BBC figures), it is also true that they take up a large proportion of the costs of the NHS.

    I am not sure if anyone has calculated how much of the so called ‘structural deficit’ actually represents the increasing proportion of old people in the population. If the proportion of over 75s had stayed what they were in (say) 1900 while growth had continued at its usual rate would we have a deficit at all?

    In any kind of cutting, it is clearly important to look at the kind of distinctions Alec makes. But we should also look at the contributions made by unpopular groups. And these would include immigrants who tend to be young and the unemployed who seem to me necessary to the Darwinian process on which capitalism relies,

  48. Surely increasing the basic rate of tax would be better than all these cuts and freezes? It would affect all those in work and also affect the well paid including pensioners.

    Couple that with closing loopholes and possibly a property tax and we might be able to afford a bare minimum support network.

  49. @ROGER MEXICO

    Thanks for that analysis on Malta it is very interesting.

  50. Thanks Richard

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