Lord Ashcroft has released a second poll of Eastleigh, conducted over the weekend.

Topline figures are CON 28%, LAB 12%, LDEM 33%, UKIP 21%. Like the Times poll conducted by Populus last week it shows the Liberal Democrats still ahead, UKIP in third place and the Labour vote squeezed right down. The poll was conducted after the Lord Rennard story broke, so it does not appear to have had any obvious effect on Lib Dem support in the by-election, although the story obviously has continued to rumble on since then.

Two days to go until the Eastleigh by-election so I expect this will be the final poll…

Full tables are here.

420 Responses to “Ashcroft polling shows Lib Dems still 5 points ahead in Eastleigh”

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  1. Perhaps time to return when we have left the 70s and come back to the present.

  2. @Tony Dean

    Meant to mention the Gini thing before but. … I forgot. Lost in a reverie about the Seventies or something, haha.

    Anyways, this is a visual representation showing not only how the Gini has changed, but some of the impacts.


    (This sort of thing does tend to bring the wealthy – or those who aspire to it – out in hives though, as it indicates that the wealthy suffer as a result of inequality too. ..)

    The ’70s were great.
    No they weren’t
    Yes they was.
    No they wasn’t


    That is rather the nature of debate though, is it not? Claim, counter-claim and so on . It’s not like it’s frozen in time though. More things are revealed, the debate develops. Then Anthony posts a new poll and everyone continues onto the next thing the wiser (even if they may not have changed their mind) because more info.

  4. @Martyn

    “The seventies just sucked.”

    Then 1979 happened and everything perked up. LoL!

  5. @ Carfrew

    Thank you! Absolutely brilliant – I must order a copy of “The Spirit Level”.
    Perhaps we should send Ed Balls a copy to help with his policy planning?


    25 to 30 years old, we just thought the middle 60s (1962 ’till 1968) were the real times to be young and British. ..


    I think it was David Bailey who said that he always thought that the mist happening time of Swinging London was the early-to-mid sixties.

    1968 was definitely a reality check though. Martyn Luther King and Bobby Kennedy, Civil Rights marches, Riots, Les Evenements, Vietnam really searing into the public consciousness. ..

    (Though personally I thought Englebert keeping Strawberry Fields/Penny Lane off the top spot was a harbinger of doom. ..)

  7. @Carfrew & Howard

    In 1964 we moved to Primrose Hill in north London – I was aged 8, but even I was aware that it was really “swinging” then! I remember bright young things stepping out of bubble-cars, and loads of writers, radio DJs and BBC types moving into the area and giving it a really avant garde feeling locally. Great times!

    Perhaps we should send Ed Balls a copy to help with his policy planning?


    I think he may already have a copy! ! I think labour have referred to it before. The book had the right wing think tanks working overtime spitting feathers. Many of their attacks were pretty flawed, but the matter could use further investigation. ..

  9. the 70s

    Leeds Utd/Don Revie

    I rest my case for the “it was rubbish” vote.

  10. …Children of the Stones. Rentaghost. Ivor the Engine. Play for Today. World of Sport with Dickie Davies. Tom Baker. Star Trek! Grandstand. World in Action. Onedin Line. Washington: Behind Closed doors, It’s A Knock-Out. Tomorrow’s World. Z-Cars. Columbo. Robin Day and Bob McKenzie on Election Specials. Porridge. Mission Impossible. Kojak. James Burke. Bill Brand. The Six Million Dollar Man. Whicker’s World. I, Claudius (I,CLAUDIUS!!!). Mastermind with Icelander Icelandersson. Jesus of Nazareth. Frost/Nixon. Parkinson. Man From Atlantis. Harold Pinter. Scotland in the World Cup. Sweeney…

  11. Babyboomers think the seventies were rubbish because they were tied down with offspring and not getting enough action. ..

  12. The 60s? I wasn’t even born until the mid 70s.

    @Tony Dean
    Even to those of us from Maida Vale, Primrose Hill has always been posh. Not quite as arty as Hampstead though.

  13. NEW THREAD … Forward to the 80’s, perhaps?

  14. Or backward to the eighties, depending etc.

  15. Ann in Wales

    Clegg triumphalism in Eastleigh? I thought so too…

    Let’s hope our pre-emptive schadenfreude is on target!

  16. MARTYN

    @”Many (most?) of them are about people trapped in situations they hate but cannot escape”

    Exactly-that was the point of them.

    They described the times.

    Particularly “Whatever happened to the Likely Lads”

    …..The slow death of the old working class.

  17. Tony Dean @ Leftylampton

    “The old “gentle professions” part of the middle class was utterly destroyed by mercantile Thatcherism. That is why so many teachers, vicars, nurses etc went to the LibDems. They would have been solidly behind MacMillan or Douglas-Home, but the drift to the monetarist – largley non-traditionalist right, alienated them.”

    In Scotland these people took advantage of the availability of the SNP option though they were cool on the party’s flagship policy

  18. Yes, they don’t make ’em like that anymore.

    We don’t have sitcoms about graduates trapped in call centres, reeling off scripts selling mobile phone contracts while having even their toilet breaks monitored, unable to afford a house or pension, laden with college debt, unable to afford the heating, struggling with childcare costs, austerity forever, videoed everywhere they go, petrol and food costs through the roof, their job at risk of being offshored, all the good jobs going to moneyed, connected interns. ..

    Quite hard to make a comedy out of that tragedy though. ..

    ““The old “gentle professions” part of the middle class was utterly destroyed by mercantile Thatcherism.”

    Not just part of the middle class but, in respect of accreditation by national institutes, such as membership of the Institute of Civil Engineers, throughout the professions, the rock hard basis of ethical and accountable service and consultancy. This tradition, though, not the institutions themselves, was, from about 1975, virtually destroyed in international professional consultancy by the practice of the EC and World Bank family of international development finance institutions calling every contracfted agency a “consultant” and every contract “consultancy”, including constrruction and procurement. Whereas the consultant was, in the safeguarding of the client’s and publc interest, till then the first and continuous line of defence of ethical professional performance and the custodian against corruption and fraud, subsequently the international agencies regarded and developed their own safeguard systems, of great complexity and easily circumvented, essentially to answer to their own boards of management. Performance, outcome and accountability has to an ever greater degree been measured within the framework of project monitoring and evaluation, essentially bureaucratic, short terml, and providing an agenda and recipe for repeated learning of the same lessons and of making the same mistakes, for poor standards, corruption and the loss of peer accountability .

    “Social libertarians can probably settle on the anarchist left fringe of Labour. Fiscal libertarians can probably settle on the tax-protest wing of the Conservatives.

    Those who are both social and fiscal libertarians really didn’t have a place in British politics anyway.”

    Do you mean those who oppose prejudicial behaviour towards gays or ethnic minorities, and those who favour using the tax system to achieve more equal wealth distribution and to eradicate poverty?

    On the contrary, I’ld say they belong smack in the centre of the Labour Party, and are providing about 41% to 42% of VI.

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