Sky News have already released the monthly ComRes poll for the Independent here and show topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 43%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1). A significant increase for Labour and the largest Labour lead they’ve shown in their phone polls (albeit not significantly different from several 11 point leads they showed last year).
The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, so after the allegations about Lord Rennard and at least partially after the downgrade of Britain’s credit rating. Surely they are what’s caused the shift in the polls? Not so fast…
The Lib Dem score looks bad for the party, and it’s the lowest ComRes have shown the Lib Dems in their telephone polls. However, let’s not forget all our usual caution* – it is just one poll and the changes are within the margin of error. Wait and see if it is picked up in other polling.
The Labour increase meanwhile is less mysterious. When there is a movement in the polls it is natural to look at the last few days for an explanation for what might have caused it. Natural, but wrong, as in many cases the previous poll was a whole month ago and the cause of any change could have happened at any point. In this case the last ComRes telephone poll was just after David Cameron’s pledge to hold an EU referendum and showed Labour dropping by three points. As we saw in the YouGov daily polling, that narrowing of the polls from the EU pledge was very short lived indeed – so the most obvious explanation to the change in the poll is an unwinding of the referendum pledge effect, taking us back to the region of the 11 point lead ComRes showed in December.
And the downgrading of the credit rating? If it does have an effect it maybe too soon for it to show up in this poll anyway. Let’s wait for a couple more polls and see what happens.
(*unlike, it would appear, the front page of the Indy, most of Twitter, etc, etc. Sigh)