Following the Populus/Times Eastleigh poll that showed the Liberal Democrats five points ahead, there is a new Survation poll of Eastleigh in the Mail on Sunday tomorrow that shows the opposite picture, with the Conservative party four points ahead. Their topline voting intentions for Eastleigh are CON 33%(nc), LAB 13%(nc), LDEM 29%(-7), UKIP 21%(+5) – changes are from the previous Survation poll of Eastleigh a fortnight ago.

Both polls were conducted on the telephone and while I haven’t seen the Survation tables both companies tend to use a similar methodology in terms of weighting and reallocating don’t knows to the parties they supported at the last election. I understand they were carried out at about the same time, so it shouldn’t be a “Rennard effect”. The two polls show UKIP with the same level of support, and no significant difference in Labour support – the only difference is the figures for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

I’ll have a proper look when the Survation tables appear, but at first glance the most likely explanation for the difference between the two polls is just the normal variation within the margin of error… suggesting that the race really could be neck-and-neck.

I don’t know if there are any polls of Eastleigh to come – I’ve heard rumours of a poll in the field over this weekend, but we shall see.

UPDATE: The tables for the Survation poll are up here. There are some minor differences in approach (Survation reallocated don’t knows at a lower rate, and didn’t weight up people who didn’t vote in 2010 to as a high a proportion of the sample as Populus did), but none that would explain the difference. Not that the difference really needs a fancy explanation – once you take into account the high level of don’t knows the difference between the two polls can easily be explained by normal margin of error.


389 Responses to “Survation/Mail on Sunday show Tories 4 points ahead in Eastleigh”

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  1. @Alec
    ‘It’s humbling to see the human side of a man who has devoted his life to telling the rest of us how to live.’

    This doesn’t read like a reference to ‘allegations’ though, it suggests that you consider them proven.

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  2. R in N
    Well they are not ‘results’ yet. I see Beppe Grillo, the satirist, has nearly quarter of the votes, in the Senate anyway, but Monti has 9.1 so far, which is above the 8 he needs to survive in the Senate.

    (er, if I have understood La Repubblica anyway…)

    I had not realised the Senate has so much power, by the way, interesting split between national and regional voting.

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  3. @ Couper2802

    I don’t think we should take sexual harassment so lightly. It happened to me and it is very frightening especially if the person is powerful.
    ——————-
    That must have been a horrible time for you; I hope you are okay now.

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  4. I thought it was a bit of a lack lustre performance by EB today he should have been kicking against a open goal, but GO came for a fight and was very well prepared.
    I think that the opposition’s problem is they won’t say or don’t have a viable fiscal policy yet that sets out in detail what would be different under Labour, and how that would have led to Britain retaining it’s AAA rate.
    Of course it’s hard to be impartial when watching debates and I’m not a great fan of either, but in particular not of Balls so it would easy to be over negative about his performance, but having a tv in my workshop I did get to hear the entire debate which went on for about a hour and I must say there was precious little sign of GO being under pressure, unlike me struggling to get my motorbike engine back in it’s frame the human body should come with another pair of hands or at least have a wife who doesn’t refuse to get oil on her hands or put a little bit of marking blue on the engine mounts,but at least she could drive a tractor and plough straighter lines than me before we retired and bring up our 3 children run the farm accounts and run the farm shop, but is a little light engineering beyond her I ask you.

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  5. I thought EB wiped the floor with GO

    No, GO was masterful

    What? EB was far superior.

    &c

    Can we move on now?

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  6. They were both rubbish – and I was out walking the puppy-gurls so, sadly, missed it.

    I loathe all sexual predators by the way and, of course, by far the majority are men.

    The sooner we have – as an absolute minimum – an equal number of women in all prominent positions the better in my view; in general and apart from at footy men are rubbish.

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  7. Paul
    So you want a football team of 22 players with a male & female in each position then? Be a bit crowded. I prefer to have the best, male or female, black or white it really doesn’t matter. The important thing is they are there on merit, not because of discrimination. Applies to every job.

    re: Balls -Difficult for him to land a punch really on GO as he has for so long, rubbished the ratings agencies anyway & said how they are irrelevant. What’s he saying,? That they are really important now?

    Funny how the BBC is today talking about the collapse of Sterling (It has fallen from about 1.25 euro to 1.14.’ish) I don’t remember them being so descriptive when Gordon collapsed it from 1.50 to 1.10 a few years ago. Most odd from such an impartial news service.

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  8. @Robert NEwark

    Last I saw it had ‘stabilised’, which suggested it had collapsed first.

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  9. RN

    No.

    Still eleven per team.

    I mentioned gender ONLY as, over time it seems fairly obvious that there will be an equal number of highly talented and well-qualified women available for most roles in society and it is widely agreed that they are all too often overlooked at present.

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  10. RN

    What the point of your “what I seem to remember the BBC might, or might not have said some years ago, is probably beyond more people than just me.

    Presumably that the BBC is an underground left-wing conspiracy? Time to grow up I think.

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  11. Robert, with respect – what are you talking about? Are you seriously suggesting to us that politicians have anything much to do with these movements, let alone actually having personally brought them about, as you suggest the former Prime Minister is supposed to have ‘achieved’. I presume you equally accuse David Cameron of having done the same?

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  12. The Met looking into Gropegate according to C4

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  13. Euro now ‘collapsed’ to 86,5p from 88p earlier. Now I wonder which politician achieved that – and in hours, some feat. Clearly a duff / magnificent speech by Mr Osborne, depending on what he was trying to bring about.

    Or perhaps it was the pathetic / masterly response by Mr Balls.

    Do us a favour please, partisans.

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  14. Howard,

    I blame Thatcher.

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  15. @ Robert Newark

    “Funny how the BBC is today talking about the collapse of Sterling (It has fallen from about 1.25 euro to 1.14.’ish) I don’t remember them being so descriptive when Gordon collapsed it from 1.50 to 1.10 a few years ago. Most odd from such an impartial news service”

    Oh now you’ve done it :)

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  16. @Roger Mexico and @Carfrew

    Re new schools – electricity costs often rise by four or five fold, and while I accept Carfrew’s point – the services are much better, and many of these will be new power consuming systems – there are also fundamental design flaws.

    IT server rooms are a particular bug bear. Very often new schools are designed with multiple server rooms, and these rack up a high and more or less constant power demand. Unfortunately the design of the IT system doesn’t take account of the fact that the school is not functioning as a school for 75% of the time. The satellite servers tend to have things like security systems, CCTV and building management systems applied through each server system for the part of the building that the server serves, if you get my drift.

    The net effect of this is that rather than have a single main server room that handles all the building critical tasks, that has to be left on 24/7, and perhaps four or five satellite servers that can be powered down overnight and at weekends, you have all systems running constantly. This accounts for half the standing power demand at many of the new schools I’ve looked at, and costs literally thousands of pounds in wasted energy bills.

    On top of that you have things like carparks with 70 lights, put on a single circuit – so a single car required 11kW of constant demand. Catering is also often contracted out – but the school pays the gas and electric bills. This leads to situations where the catering company leaves half a bag of chips and a meat pie in an otherwise empty walk in freezer for the entire summer holiday, with the school picking up the tab.

    I could go on, but I’m very boring on this topic.

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  17. Interestingly, share prices fell as the currency rose, moderating a bit to a small rise at close. The stock market is crying out for more demand.

    I can’t see any outcome other than a Labour majority, unless Osborne switches the BoE to NGDP targeting. The credit rating loss SHOULD be a Black Wednesday moment, in the sense of moving from a failed regime (the ERM, inflation targeting) to a better one.

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  18. Berlusconi actually.

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  19. Howard
    Are you seriously suggesting to us that politicians have anything much to do with these movements, let alone actually having personally brought them about, as you suggest the former Prime Minister is supposed to have ‘achieved’. I presume you equally accuse David Cameron of having done the same?”

    I agree with you it’s the BBC that seem to be blaming Cameron/Osborne for the latest adjustment. In reality the exchange rate is back to where it has been ever since the crash in 2008/9, except that it rose last year BECAUSE OF THE WEAKNESS OF THE EURO. Nothing to do with the strength of Sterling.

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  20. BILL PATRICK

    @”The stock market is crying out for more demand.”

    eh?

    FTSE 100 up 750 points since mid Nov. Now back to the pre-recession peak.

    Even up 19 points today.

    The stock market FORSEES demand.

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  21. “The stock market FORSEES demand.”

    ha ha

    unless it crashes

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  22. NICKP

    I didn’t say it was correct.

    But that’s what it has been doing in spectacular fashion since before Christmas.

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  23. Thanks Robert. I thought for one moment you were going along with journalist claptrap. I try not to make predictions about the two currencies I am interested in (as doubtless you are as i think you live in the EZ). We mere mortals cannot compete with the speculators. I just doubt whether short term fluctuations, say over three years, have much to do with anything identifiable as local state policy implementation. I do listen to ECB and Fed pronouncements, not so much to Merv, who I think has his hands tied.

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  24. @Robert Newark

    “I blame Thatcher.”

    At last, something we can agree on.

    Eureka!

    (or Lol, as they say in these parts)

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  25. The Italian Senate race is facinating as the block bonus is only available at region level, but Monti plus Bersani does not do it. They will need the court jester Grillo (means ‘cricket’ apparently). The socialists will have the Lower house (lower only in name).

    His (Grillo’s) members look like a mixed bunch to me, but the worry is that Grillo himself promotes freezing of interest payments on debt, defaulting if need be.

    I expect Virgilio will put me right on all this. Turnout seems to be 75% and while lower than previously, is still pretty impressive.

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  26. @Robert Newark

    Apologies for last post – it should have been addressed to Bill Patrick.

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  27. What a wonderful, wonderful article on BBC football by Jonathan Pearce on the great Bobby Moore.

    I actually saw him play.

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  28. Gavin Hewitt, reporting on the Italian elections tweeted that “if these instant polls are accurate it means that one in five voters cast their vote for a comedian”

    Did Berlusconi only get 20% then?i

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  29. Colin

    The stock market forsee’s more printing

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  30. Bill

    Most stock markets fell when the results of the italian election started coming through, they don’t like berlusconi

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  31. @Paul C

    Re: Bobby Moore. I too was privileged to see the great man play for England, West Ham and, in his twilight days, at Fulham in that Craven Cottage Cavaliers XI that contained Bobby, Rodney Marsh, George Best and Alan Mullery.

    Just about the best all round footballer I ever saw, I think. Watched him at Wembley on a sun kissed day in June 1966 when we were being thoroughly outplayed by Rattin’s brilliant but brittle Argentina in the World Cup Quarter Final. He more or less kept a ten man Argentina at bay on his own until Geoff Hurst soared and then hung in the air to glance a deft header for the eventual winner.

    An awe-struck 10 year with his Mum, Dad and brother rapt in wonder at the old Wembley Stadium, sharing magical footballing moments with 100,000 others. Five moments to go, England hanging on, news coming in of North Korea conceding a 3-0 lead to trail a Eusebio inspired Portugal 5-3 at Goodison and the whole stadium resounding to “When the Whites go Marching in”. Right up there with the one of the best days of my life and, looking back, there undoubtedly began my lifelong love affair with the greatest game in the world. Still hopelessly besotted now.

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  32. Crossbat
    “….it means that one in five voters cast their vote for a comedian”

    It could be argued that 100% of British voters voted for comedians or crooks.

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  33. Colin @ Howard.

    “Where were all the strong willed women in this case?”

    They are all in the Scottish Parliament.

    Both LAB and SNP, most credit to Lab, though the gay tory leader does kick boxing and she must be “strong willed” to get to that position so it would be a comprehesive error of judgement to try anything on with her.

    There are poportionately twice as many women. In the second (?) session, there were more women MSPs than had EVER IN TOTAL been sent to Westminster as MPs.

    An ex SNP MSP is ostracised because of abuse of his ex-wives.

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  34. @Crossbat,XI

    Gavin Hewitt, reporting on the Italian elections tweeted that “if these instant polls are accurate it means that one in five voters cast their vote for a comedian”
    Did Berlusconi only get 20% then?”

    As far as the Congress of Deputies is concerned the current projection is: CentreLeft: 29.2%, Centre Right: 28.7%, 5 star Movement 26.5%. So not really a great deal in it. Infact the 5Star Movement will be the largest single party (vote share) in the CoD and the Senate. That’s quite an achievement.

    And those voting for 5Star Movement are left of centre, educated males, who distrust the Press, TV media, large corporations and the Banks.

    It’s an anti austerity and anti establishment party. Incidently, Grillo will not take a seat in either House. His party are against convicted criminals standing for office, and he has a prior conviction (albeit not,for, sleaze or corruption).

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  35. I’ve just seen the news that Boris reacted angrily and not being scrutinised. I can’t fathom it, surely a politician would prefer not to have to answer questions on their policies?

    Also as the Conservatives have over 1/3 of the Assembly members the other assembly members can’t veto his budget, so I can’t really see what he was upset about.

    Also looking to Italy, apparently we might be heading for Gridlock US style but in reverse, with the right wing party in control of the senate, but the left wing party in control of the house.

    How would they decide the Prime Minister in this case? Would it be whoever gets a majority in the house? I.e Bersani?

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  36. RIn

    Don’t like Berlusconi, or don’t like gridlock and uncertainty? There is a big difference.

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  37. MiM

    This explains it. From the Times Online:
    “Labour, Green and Lib Dem members voted to bypass the opportunity to question Mr Johnson because his deputy, Victoria Borwick, was not present for the opening statement.
    The absence of the Conservative Deputy Mayor would have granted opposition members the two-thirds majority needed to pass an amendment that would scrap a 7p-a-week council tax cut. ”

    So just the opposition being opportunistic. I think his deputy actually arrived in the nick of time to save his budget .

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  38. Crossbat

    I saw Bobby Moore a few weeks before he died. We were both in a queue at Bramall Lane ticket office for tickets for an England U-21 game. I’m no giant myself (first male on my side of the family for 4 generations to top out at under 6 foot – leave it; sore point…) but I was a good bit taller than him. It really emphasised what a reader of the game he must have been to look so assured at centre-back, when he must have been giving away so much physically to many of the players he marked.

    A bit like Franco Baresi I guess. Another centre-back who was less-than-giant physically but a colossus as a player.

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  39. NEW FRED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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