YouGov Welsh poll

The latest YouGov poll of Wales for ITV is now up on their website here. Topline voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the last poll way back in July are:

Westminister: CON 22%(-1), LAB 51%(-3), LDEM 9%(+5), PC 10%(nc), UKIP 7%
Assembly const: CON 21%(+2), LAB 46%(-4), LDEM 10%(+3), PC 17%(nc), UKIP 5%
Assembly list: CON 14%(+3), LAB 26%(-9), LDEM 11%(+3), PC 26%(+6), UKIP 13%(+1)
European: CON 23%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7%, PC 14%, UKIP 9%

The list vote figures for Labour and Plaid are particularly striking, though all the usual cavaets about not getting too excited over a single poll and eyecatching results normally turning out to be wrong should apply.

The poll also asked how Welsh respondents would vote in a referendum on membership of the EU, findng 42% would vote in favour, 35% would vote against (and suggesting that Wales is slightly more pro-European than the country as a whole).


34 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

  1. “Wales is slightly more pro-European than the country as a whole”, by which you actually mean “Wales is substantially more pro-European than England” (Scotland is also substantially more pro-European.) Antt-Europeanism is largely an English, as opposed to a British, phenomenon.

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  2. I am actually very happy with that poll. It suggests that at the next Assembly elections in 2017, Plaid will have a terrible time of it. Rhondda (being contested by the leader of Plaid in the Assembly, LeAnne Wood) will be held by Labour forcing her to resign as leader of Plaid Cymru. Her deputy, Elin Jones (from Ceredigion) will lose to the Liberal Democrats and Simon Thomas (who most people believe is next in line to become leader) scrapes in by 1,600 votes (which is hardly a ringing endorsement)

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  3. And the votes with changes since each election:
    Westminister: CON 22%(-4), LAB 51%(+15), LDEM 9%(-11), PC 10%(-1), UKIP 7% (+5)
    Assembly const: CON 21%(-4), LAB 46%(+4), LDEM 10%(nc), PC 17%(-2), UKIP 5% (+5)
    Assembly list: CON 14%(-9), LAB 26%(-10), LDEM 11%(+3), PC 26%(+8), UKIP 13%(+8)
    European: CON 23% (+2), LAB 44%(+24), LDEM 7%(-3), PC 14%(-4), UKIP 9%(-4)

    The European voting boggles my mind – if Labour can get +24% in 2014 that’d be a spectacular PR victory.

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  4. @Billy Bob (fpt)
    You cited the first of Lord Ashcroft’s polls in Corby. In his final one, the Lab lead was 22%, which turned out to be a pretty accurate margin.

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  5. @Phil Haines

    Thanks, I’ll update that part of the post:

    Corby
    Ashcroft (i): Lab 52%, Con 37%, LD 7%, Others 4%
    Ashcroft (ii): Lab 54% Con 32%, UKIP 6%, LD 5%, Others 2%
    Result: Lab 48.5%, Con 26.6%, UKIP 14.3%, LD 5%, Others 5.8%

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  6. If significant numbers of Welsh Labour supporters realise that 28 out of Labour’s 30 Assembly seats were gained from the Constituency list, then this makes quite a lot of sense. In those results, a list Labour vote counted for nothing except in Mid/West Wales. So perhaps some of this is down to the emergence of a pattern of tactical switching by Labour voters, to ensure that another party on the left (Plaid) gets as many as possible of the list seats up for grabs at the expense of the coalition parties.

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  7. Phil Haines

    That is the two party FPTP Westminster perspective. The wasted vote is the Labour list vote.

    Looking down the other end of the telescope. The party of first preference (PC, UKIP, Green, even SNP) in FPTP is the wasted vote and the tactical vote is the Labour (except for UKIP supporters) Westminster vote.

    Unless we regard these as anti-Cons-anti-Lab it follows that a substantial section of the Labour vote is soft if the tactical voters of (mainly nationalist candidates in other votes) are persuaded that the party of first preference has a chance of being elected.

    Either way, there is a tranche of Labour FPTP voters who are soft, and not at all committed to Labour but ready to use them in FPTP.

    In Scotland, the Liberals in the Highlands fullfilled this role brilliantly and were the recipients of tactical votes hard won over decades of campaigning on local issue. They lost them to the SNP in a matter of weeks.

    Labour needs to beware complacency in thinking these people are its supporters and can be presumed to vote for them. The objective is then to persuade them to go to the polling station.

    The polarised assumptions in the 1950’s of common tastes and experiences in sport, newspaper, social class, occupation, housing type and education – and politics were a package and not pick and mix.

    Now, parties have to work to retain a voter’s loyalty.

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  8. @John

    I think you stretch the analogy too far.

    Bear in mind that Plaid and Labour are very clearly parties of the left, so it is only natural to see some tactical voting between them. The evidence of Labour constituency votes switching to Plaid is clear enough from the YouGov tables.

    And in South Wales at least it is only in the list that tactical voting matters, because Labour has a habit of picking up every or almost every constituency, such that it doesn’t stand a cat in hell’s chance of picking up list seats there in any plausible scenario. So a Labour supporter has to pause to think what to do with their list vote. But those Labour FPTP constituency seats aren’t determined by tactical voting, because in relatively few is there any chance of the Conservatives winning them. So I don’t think you can make the case that large numbers of Plaid supporters are voting Labour tactically in constituency seats to keep the Conservatives out.

    By contrast, in Scotland the Lib Dems effectively renounced just about everything they had stood for over decades by their choice at Westminster in 2010. That is a very different scenario and surely any party’s support would turn out to be soft if it performed such a volte face.

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  9. Charles, John TT, Carfrew

    Anyone interested in management should note the work of John Seddon who promotes systems thinking.

    My previous MSP, Jim Mather, like myself a member of ICAS, is a great fan. The fact that he is no longer in government is a great loss to the Scottish Government.

    John Seddon is the enemy of targets, call centres and their perverse incentives.

    Neil A

    Another systems thinker is Inspector Simon Guilfoyle whose blog may seem to be about a man buying a pie in a cafe or suchlike, but is in fact a parable for management practices in police work in England, much of it relevant to Scotland too.

    You really must read him. You will see things in his blog that others will miss.

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  10. Phil

    Are Labour considered to be on the Left in Wales then?

    Weber Shandwick Scottish voting compass has the SNP on the left, but very close to the centre (of the population) with Greens and SSP the left.

    Labour were close to the Conservatives and certainly centre right. That’s by policy, the membership are futher left of course.

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  11. Tinged
    Your European election has gained 15% from somewhere. Is that a typo? Collapse of the Green vote?

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  12. I wonder why Wales and Scotland choose to remain part of the UK?

    Both are left or left-leaning. Both are more pro-EU than not.

    And yet, by remaining in the UK, both are governed by right or right-leaning governments which are anti-EU.

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  13. TOB

    I think its a secret love affair with all things English that they are just a bit shy about.

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  14. @John B Dick

    The irony is the parties in the 50’s worked far harder to keep their members and voters happy.

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  15. Same with the UK.

    People may say they are anti Europe and want independence, but in a referendum they will choose to stay as the English have a love of winding up the French. Why do you think Cameron’s ratings went up after he vetoed that deal at the end of 2011, he completely threw a spanner in the works.

    The French want us gone so the Brits will be determined to stay,

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  16. The regional list figures are very strange. I’ve been looking at the retention rate from the Westminster VI for each of the Parties ie the percentage of those voting for a Party at UK level who will support them on the list[1]. The first column is the July 2012 poll the second the latest:

    Con 47% 49%
    Lab 60% 47%
    P/C 63% 54%
    L/D 54% 32%

    So in every case the retention of the Parties’ votes is surprisingly small and mostly declining.

    In contrast if you look the retention of Westminster VI in the Assembly constituencies, the figures are much higher and nearer what you would expect (columns as above):

    Con 84% 90%
    Lab 89% 90%
    P/C 96% 99%
    L/D 89% 79%

    This may be tactical voting, though that seems unlikely so far from the election. I wonder if there may be some effect from the way the questions have been asked and some people are actually thinking they are being asked for a second preference

    [1] It’s actually more complicated than that because this ignores non-voters, but the pattern is the thing.

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  17. This will move the Polls…
    “Digital Look
    @DigitalLookNews”
    Moody’s downgrades UK to AA1 from AAA # UK”

    Well done Mr Osborne !!!

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  18. That Old Bloke

    “I wonder why Wales and Scotland choose to remain part of the UK?”

    Tribal Labour wants to stick together. As my former Labour MP said to me during the Thatcher years “Independence is a terrible thing to do to the English”.

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  19. Redfish

    “This will move the Polls,”

    Imperceptably.

    The underlying causes will affect many things and add to the absence of feel-good and so contribute to slow decline in coalition suppor, but directly and immeditely, no, not at all.

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  20. @John

    When the SNP joined with the Conservatives to bring down a Labour government, did the SNP consider that it was bringing down a government of the Left?

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  21. The other site reporst the Populus poll for Eastleigh as

    Lib Dems 33 (+2)
    Conservatives 28 (-6)
    UKIP 21 (+8)
    Labour 11 (-8)

    Ok, I give up. What the F is going on?

    rgdsm

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  22. We’ve lost our AAA! Moody’s have downgrade UK debt because of our weak growth. If Labour play this right I’d expect 5% swing from Conservative to Labour.

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  23. Martyn

    Labour voters going to LD, Con to UKIP. Perfectly clear.

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  24. @NickP

    Why would Lab voters go to LD? Why would Con voters go to UKIP? Why aren’t people more logical? Why do they do stupid things? Aaargh!

    rgdsm

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  25. John B Dick
    I heartily recommend you read The Management Myth by Matthew Stewart.
    The nonsense started with Taylorism and persists, but its days are numbered. Talent should lead. Problem is, who would want to join a demonised legion when there are so many opportunities to make money leading appreciative teams elsewhere?

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  26. Those Lab voters are really anti-Con voters, and in a way, so are those Con to Ukip movers.

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  27. A quick read of John Seddon on Wiki suggests he has been proved right on Toyoda.

    As Aristotle might have put it, the pursuit of excellence is not consistent with the focus on profit or Lean-ness. And nor was kaizen.

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  28. new fred

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  29. Eastleigh poll (if this is close to the result) – it answers the question regarding the anti-Tory tactical vote – it will still be there come 2015. So bad news for the Conservatives.

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  30. Someone should be asking who’s been doing the insider info, the statement by george was prepared well in advance, but sterling has been on the slide recently, looks like some folk in the know have taken large short positions. Of course the info could have been leaked from moody’s but it could also have been passed from govt ministers to their friends. The regulators should have a good look at all the sterling trades in the last 2 weeks, but it won’t happen

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  31. Phil Haines @ John

    When the SNP joined with the Conservatives to bring down a Labour government, did the SNP consider that it was bringing down a government of the Left?

    No, they enjoyed their power to influence events at the time, but they now, I think, prefer that it is forgotten.

    The SNP, and their then leader, William Wolfe, were to the right of Labour at that time. Blair’s triangulation reversed the situation.

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  32. Till the last SP election, when the SNP had no coaltion partner, they worked closely with the Cons.

    Challenging, but they did it to the credit of both parties.

    The LibDems missed a trick. They could have been in coaltion for 12 years.

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  33. John B Dick

    Welsh Labour is pretty much a centre-left party in Wales, it introduced free prescriptions, considering nationalising Cardiff Airport, removed the market healthcare, opposes the use of PFIs, etc etc.

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