The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 9%(nc), GRN 4%(+1). Needless to say, there is no significant change from last month’s figures. Full tables are on MORI’s website here.

Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. After that brief blip following Cameron’s referendum pledge the YouGov daily poll seems to have settled down around about a 10 point Labour lead again.


315 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 30, LAB 42, LD 7, UKIP 9”

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  1. What about another Eastleigh poll?

  2. Labour lead looking pretty stable.

    Is that the same as “solid” ?

  3. @Colin

    no I don’t think it does. There is still enough time between now and the next GE for all sorts of things to happen.

  4. ACADEMIC

    Cheers!

    Fell better now.

  5. The Mori Ipsos tables don’t seem to break down the ‘satisfied /dissatisfied’ answers between the parties (the tables I downloaded anyway) so you can’t judge whether it’s a ‘usual suspects’ figure (party loyalty based support or disapproval) or to what degree it is less so. They give other data (social group, age, gender). That seems an important omission..

  6. Belay that -just found them, sorry.

  7. @nickp (sadly) It will be a cold day in hell before Labour win in Eastliegh (and maybe any other seat they didn’t take in 1997:- that said I am busy wrapping up some thermals for old nick

  8. Ipsos/Mori:

    “David Cameron’s satisfaction ratings are now in line with those of Gordon Brown at the same point in his premiership. His net rating of -24 (34% are satisfied with David Cameron’s performance as Prime Minister and 58% are dissatisfied) is exactly the same as Gordon Brown’s after 34 months as Prime Minister – albeit this was in fact Mr Brown’s last month in office and in the middle of a general election campaign.”

  9. I think we can safely put to bed any notion, however fanciful it was at the time, that the Referendum pledge and EU budget “triumph” would have any noticeable effect on public opinion. This Ipsos/Mori poll is particularly telling because it was last conducted only a few days before the Cameron speech and there has been virtually no movement in any of the respective parties ratings in the meantime. In fact the Tory and UKIP VIs are completely unchanged and if the Referendum and Budget were “traction” issues then we might have expected to see some significant movement between the two. The Tory canon has blasted off twice on issues thought key to changing the public mood and the gun is spent with little, if any, damage inflicted on opponents. Something else going on here, methinks, with Tory unpopularity a many faceted thing.

    As for Miliband’s speech on the economy today, I’d call it more ground-salting and mood music material than anything substantial, but I think what is interesting here is that he’s got an overarching theme developing. The job of Her Majesty’s Opposition is essentially two-fold; to hold the government to account, embarrassing them too when and wherever possible, and try to develop resonating messages and themes that strike chords with the electorate. This is sometimes known as a political narrative that slowly develops into a coherent prospectus for an alternative government.

    One nation Labour is a nascent concept, possibly even nebulous at the moment, but I have a feeling that it’s enabling Miliband to be just about exactly where he wants and needs to be politically at this point in the electoral cycle; unsettling the government and slowly getting the electorate to listen to his party again. The polls must be encouraging him too, I would think.

  10. They were -25 in Jan, and -29 in October. It would suggest an upward trend. Bear in mind that Gordon Brown’s got to -51, and his government to -62.

  11. After a couple of dummy runs, perhaps Cameron has realised that he should hold fire on his next big European gesture until about a week before the general election.

  12. @ PeeWee

    After a couple of dummy runs, perhaps Cameron has realised that he should hold fire on his next big European gesture until about a week before the general election.
    ——————
    The danger there is that Labour & the LibDems would get a matching amount of airtime to refute – or even trump – whatever the big EU gesture was.

    However, if Labour are still topping the polls during the actual campaign, Cameron may have to throw caution to the winds & go for something risky on the EU or immigration in general.

  13. The improvement in YG VI for the LDs seen during Jan seems to have stalled this week with figures of 10, 10, 9 . Is this a belated effect of the Huhne scandal or are there other reasons?

  14. What about purdah?

  15. @Statgeek/Nick P

    I think attention is being helpfully deflected away from Cameron’s personal approval ratings by two things. Firstly, by how they compare to Miliband’s (worse in some polls, better in others but, more or less, equitable in the round) and his lead on who’s seen to be more Prime Ministerial. If you take those two factors away, and look at his approval ratings on their own, they are pretty dire and have been so for some time.

    This is the reason why I think that the Tories are greatly exaggerating Cameron’s potential as an electoral asset in 2015. He may be polling ahead of his party, and marginally winning the head-to-head comparison with Miliband for now, but the country was not greatly enthused by him in May 2010 and are even less so now.

  16. @Amberstar

    It seems Cameron is giving conflicting messages about immigration and this might become a problem for him. Next week he is supposedly going to say that Indians will be welcome to the UK to study and work while currently he is against Romanians and Bulgarians coming to the UK.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100202816/david-camerons-immigration-dilemma-indian-students-good-romanian-brickies-bad/

  17. @CB11

    I will speculate here (and open myself up to all manner of criticism for not having evidence), but I wonder if there’s a ‘better the devil you know’ factor?

    Did it give Labour a few more seats and prevent the OM that the Conservatives wanted? Will it benefit Cameron in 2015?

    Given that we probably won’t see the unemployment of the 80s, or the level of evictions of the 90s, there will be less vitriol for this government than there was for the Thatcher government.

    The obvious difference in 2015 will be those who voted Lib Dem. Many voted for ‘Cleggmania’, which will not be a factor. Indeed, it might have the opposite effect, depending on how Clegg plays his end of the election.

    The polls are strongly in favour of Labour at present, but we have seen little bounces, and as Peewee states, holding a few sweeteners back until the election might make all the difference for the Conservatives. Labour will be looking to undercut the current lot. Have you seen the 10p tax thing today?

    Can’t wait to see if this boosts Labour or dents them. Maybe Ed is trying it out early to see.

  18. I agree with the “known devil” factor. But I think it will work in reverse.

    The Tories will try to run scare stories about what will happen if Labour win, but they won’t gain traction because Labour were only just in power for many tears and didn’t sell us to the Russians as slaves.

    Equally it will be hard to sell the idea the Tories will make enybody’s life better, unless you are a rich mansion owner who will probably already be a Tory.

    Looking good for Lab. All we need now is a general election.

  19. NICKP

    I agree Labour certainly reduced many to tears over the years. I think Jack Straw may have sold a few citizens for rendition but definitely not to Russia.

  20. It is gratifying to be on a site where irrespective of the individuals opinion’s there is some certainty that they really exist and will offer reasoned debate.

    If you have a moment take a look at the BBC most recent HYS regarding Miliband’s financial proposals and click on the most favoured comments to find the absolute antithesis of this.

    Thank’s Anthony for providing this haven

    I suspect the concept of a 10p tax rate funded by millionaires will prove beneficial for Labour in future VI.
    The mea culpa moment might play well and help to disassociate Miliband from the Brown brand too.

    It is very difficult to see how the Conservatives will be able to put a positive spin on a situation where genuinely the only people seeing their tax rates fall and their real wealth increase are in the top 1% of earners.
    IMO this will be a problem up to 2015 .

  21. Of course, everything that’s happened in the last month or two could be seen entirely a normal variation in the polls. I personally haven’t really seen any theme developing. People will of course give a good airing to the more extreme polls, or those that they like the most, but we’re basically exactly where we were at the start of the year with no clear story in between.

    Of course the longer the Labour lead stays in double figures, and the less time there is left for events or economic improvements to close the gap, the greater the likelihood that they are on their way back to majority government. But 27 months is a very long time in politics. So far so good for Labour.

  22. The 10p tax band is very significant.
    1. It corrects a past mistake by Labour;
    2. It would be affordable; & most importantly:
    3. It flies in the face of the Coalition’s ‘no tax’ for people on minimum wage strategy of personal allowance increases.

    If people on minimum wage are expected to pay at least some tax, it gives them ‘moral authority’ to demand that tax is collected from wealthy individuals & off-shore companies which own UK property; & likewise from individuals & corporations with UK income.

    It is getting a fair amount of mainstream media attention & I do think this will poll well.

  23. Steve

    I agree with you about this site, there are some very sensible discussions take place & despite differences of opinion, we all remain civil to each other.
    However, I really don’t understand your last para. Have you missed the rise in the starting tax threshold which by the GE will be at £10k?

    Please don’t believe all this rubbish about the 50p tax rate, introduced by Labour 2 weeks before they were kicked out. Why didn’t they introduce it in 2008, if they really believed in it?
    Tax rates under the coalition have been higher, for the higher paid than under Labour. Not that that is a record to be proud of, just a temporary necessity necessity.

  24. Amber,

    Even if they don’t pay income tax, minimum-wagers still pay countless other taxes.

    It’s nonsensical to me that we employ one small army of civil servants to take money off the low-paid…and then another to give them benefits. How much money is wasted on such a pointless bureaucratic exercise?

    No-one should pay a penny in income tax or NI until they are above the poverty line.

  25. Did EM do a quick re write of his speech, when the rumours of GO reintroducing a 10p rate started to circulate a few days ago?
    Balls certainly had no idea of how the mansion tax would work on DP at lunchtime. A revaluation of property will give higher bills to many and more than wipe out the £2 per week benefit of a 10p tax rate on £1000 of income, as proposed. Neither would he confirm it would actually be in their manifesto.
    Another badly thought out plan.

  26. There was no hint of such an announcement from the Labour front bench in PMQs so I also have suspicions that this was thrown in at the last minute.

    If the maths involved are torn apart over the next week or so, we will know for sure.

  27. I agree with you about this site, there are some very sensible discussions take place & despite differences of opinion, we all remain civil to each other.
    However, I really don’t understand your last para. Have you missed the rise in the starting tax threshold which by the GE will be at £10k?

    -Thank’s for your positive comment and the Lib Dems deserve some credit for convincing their coalition partners that this was a greater priority than raising IHT thresholds.

    However, if you are in real terms poorer as will be the case for the majority by 2015 keeping more of less will be IMO not sufficient to save the Tories.

    Regarding your comment about the 50p tax rate

    One would assume that the then Labour Government didn’t plan on loosing the 2010 election and I very much doubt they would if they had won be looking to ditch the 50p band now.

  28. Also, I would like my status as an ‘independent voter’ to be recognised.

    Equal rights for all!

  29. @ Steve 2

    No-one should pay a penny in income tax or NI until they are above the poverty line.
    —————
    I am inclined to disagree with you. The minimum wage must result in paying some income taxes or people – especially migrant workers – on minimum wages will be characterized as ‘scroungers’ who can access public services without contributing to them.

    Saying that they contribute via VAT &/or NIC does not have the same impact; that’s why you never hear Cameron or Clegg say: “We are trying to take the low paid out of tax altogether… except for VAT & NIC.”

  30. @ Steve 2

    I am, of course, in favour of a minimum wage set at a level which allows people to pay some taxes & not be in poverty.

  31. ‘No-one should pay a penny in income tax or NI until they are above the poverty line.’

    A progressive tax system with flat gradiation is one of the ways to get rid of poverty in the first place. Increased wages, income supplements in times of need, and fair taxation is the answer to poverty and unemployment.

    Reintroducing a level is a good idea. We need 10p bands all the way up to the top. Then we are all in it together paying what we can afford.

  32. Amber, but even with a minimum wage at ‘poverty line + 10% IT + 10% NIC’ you are still throwing money down the drain employing bureaucrats in one department to reverse the work of other bureaucrats in another department. Tis madness, I tells yer.

    They would not pay income tax/NIC but they will still pay VAT, council tax, various duties on fuel/tobacco/booze, road taxes, parking charges, tolls….after all, it goes into the same Big Treasury Wallet. Only CT is vaguely hypothecated.

  33. @ Steve2

    Amber, but even with a minimum wage at ‘poverty line + 10% IT + 10% NIC’ you are still throwing money down the drain employing bureaucrats in one department to reverse the work of other bureaucrats in another department. Tis madness, I tells yer.
    ——————
    There are no ‘bureaucrats’ collecting income tax from those in paye employment. It is done by computer systems with virtually zero human intervention both in company payroll departments & in government departments.

  34. I agree with Amber. HMRC needs to maintain records on everyone regardless, so there is not a great administrative burden to collect a small amount of tax from low earners.

    Personally I’d like to see us move to a system where all money coming into a person’s possession is taxed equally and indiscriminately, above a set threshold.

    For me a degree of taxation on people on some taxpayer provided benefits (which is most people these days) is preferable to having even steeper levels of “effective taxation” for those nearing the means test thresholds.

  35. Hmmm. I agree that the starting tax threshold should actually be higher, maybe £25k with a flat tax rate after that applied to everyone on earnings over that. The more you earn the more you pay, what could be fairer. I have never understood why you should pay a higher percentage on higher income. As for VAT, that is a tax you can choose to pay or not. All basic necessities are zero rated, other than heating which certainly should be zero rated.

    Colin
    You posted on the last thread about a paramedic from West Midlands,who had posted the most disgraceful entry on Facebook to do with a victim of the Mid Staffs hospital debacle. It’s just been on the Midlands news that he has been suspended and is being investigated.
    Hopefully he will be sacked as he is clearly unfit to hold his position. The NHS does not need such nasty people in their employ.

  36. Steve2
    VAT is partly hypothecated as that part contributes to the EU Budget.

    I always think the petrol heads arguing for various taxes of motoring to be spent on roads have their tongue firmly down the back of their throat.

    It’s either that or they are just ignorant of state finances.

  37. ROBERT NEWARK

    “Balls certainly had no idea of how the mansion tax would work on DP at lunchtime. ”

    They certainly haven’t given it as much thought as the LibDems. Baroness Kramer was on the DP too & was made to look utterly ridiculous by Andrew Neil when he asked her how it would work and she had no idea despite it being a LD policy for years !

    IIRC Labour has said for a while that they would support the LDs in a mansion tax.

  38. “I have never understood why you should pay a higher percentage on higher income.”

    Isn’t it the same principle as being charged more to travel by train at rush hour or on a Friday? You’re a sitting duck!

    “As for VAT, that is a tax you can choose to pay or not. All basic necessities are zero rated, other than heating which certainly should be zero rated.”

    This idea is repeatedly and lazily trotted out. Bread, milk and horsemeat burgers are VAT exempt it is true but unless you are prepared to eat everything raw then you have to pay VAT to cook anything and also to clean your house, your hair, your teeth…..so I don’t think “choice” really comes in to it. And unless you can get everywhere you need to go on foot (and that would be bare-foot) or public transport, and unless you can speak to everyone you need to speak to in person, then you also have to pay VAT to move and to talk.

  39. @Steve2 – “If the maths involved are torn apart over the next week or so, we will know for sure.”

    In this regard, I think Milliband has also been clever. He hasn’t told us what the thresholds will be, only that they will be set in line with what can be raised by the mansion tax – in other words, there is no maths to tear apart. Attacking this on the basis that the figures don’t add up will be like trying to nail a jelly to the wall.

    Also this – “No-one should pay a penny in income tax or NI until they are above the poverty line.”

    I tend to agree with @Amberstar on this. One of the problems we have with council tax is that a hefty proportion of people don’t pay it, yet vote on the services they receive. The coalition is allowing this to change, but I would have preferred a commensurate uplift in benefits ideally, but there is principle here.

    For my money, it’s the other end of the universal benefits issue. There is great merit in making some people at the bottom end pay some tax, as it makes them understand that services cost something. Equally, there is great merit in giving people at the top end some benefits, as they appreciate that everyone gets something out.

    If we enforce a rigid separation between those who pay in, and those who get out, the concept of a welfare state itself will fall, and that would be a very bad outcome in my mind.

  40. So “being tough on Europe” is not the be-all and end-all for the electorate that the Right seem to think it is.

    Nor is their antipathy towards Gay marriage winning them any brownie points.

    In fact, as with the Tea Party, they are wildly miscalculating the social position(s) of the majority of the British electorate.

    And they stand to lose in 2015 as they have lost so many recent elections unless they come-up-to-date.

    Economic conservatism may appeal to many.

    But Social conservatism does not. IT puts people off.

  41. ROBERT

    THanks for that update.

    It would have been astounding not to hear that news.

    I agree with you about the EB tactic on the 10p band. It’s a headline catcher & not a serious competitor to raising the Tax Free Allowance.

    However, the Mansion Tax will have resonance.

    I expect GO to produce a rabbit of some sort in his next Budget. So hopefully the EB/EM foray into tax policy will be short lived.

  42. @Robert Newark – ” I have never understood why you should pay a higher percentage on higher income.”

    I’ve always viewed the answer to this as pretty simple. If you earn very little, a huge proportion of your income goes on absolute necessities of life, so to tax this at the same rate as someone who has shed loads of spare income, is a little unfair. While the money is still counted in units of pounds and pence, the real unit of measurement is how essential that money is to the well being of the individual. So the value to them of the 11,347th pound in someones pocket is greater than the value of the 58,321st pound in someone elses.

    ” As for VAT, that is a tax you can choose to pay or not.”

    I’m afraid that’s nonsense. You would be arrested if you walked naked in public, and there is VAT on clothes, and if you chose to sit at home naked, you would have to pay VAT on your heating bills.

    You could buy a blanket, but they are Vatable, and if you wanted to get to work by car or public transport, if you do this naked, you would pay VAT. You could walk, but then shoes are Vatable.

  43. ALEC

    @”He hasn’t told us what the thresholds will be, only that they will be set in line with what can be raised by the mansion tax –”

    But EB did -on DP this morning.

    He said MT “should” bring in £2bn & that would fund a band of “nearly” £1000.

    AN then asked if EB thought “£2 pw” was a serious tax adjustment.

    Balls said it was .

    So the numbers have been discussed.

  44. EB – Ed Balls
    DP – Daily Politics
    MT – Mansion Tax
    bn – billion
    AN – Andrew Neill
    pw – per week

  45. If I was Osborne, I’d announce the 10p rate regardless of the Labour announcement. Set a more generous band than Ed Balls has proposed and find some political sleight of hand to finance it elsewhere.

  46. Ed’s suggestion of a 10p income tax band seems to have got quite a pasting on TV. As everyone is pointing out, he was part of the team that scrapped it. What’s interesting is that a mansion tax on houses worth more than £2 million would have to be set at £24 000 / year , which is not cheap. For that the taxpayer would get £80 per year or half a pint of beer in a pub per week. Plus the large admin cost of it ( Amber Star you must have been part of the Edinburgh Tram planning team )

  47. Robert N
    “Hmmm. I agree that the starting tax threshold should actually be higher, maybe £25k with a flat tax rate after that applied to everyone on earnings over that. The more you earn the more you pay, what could be fairer. I have never understood why you should pay a higher percentage on higher income. ”
    As for VAT, that is a tax you can choose to pay or not. All basic necessities are zero rated, other than heating which certainly should be zero rated.”

    You can’t choose to pay VAT if you have to put petrol in your car, but a coat, pay an electrician, buy a cooker or a myriad other things which most rational people would be considered essential activities in a decent life.

    The spending of lower-earners goes disproportionately on things that carry VAT. By contrast, since higher earners use their disposable income save (zero tax) invest (minimal tax with a bit of planning) buy property (minimal tax) or to give it to their kids or their kids schools (zero tax).

    And that, of course, is the reason why a progressive tax system more heavily hits the income of higher earners. Because if it didn’t, the total tax cost as a percentage of income would be FAR higher for lower-paid workers than for highly paid ones.

    The UKIP tax proposals are a masterpiece of mendacity. They would slash public spending and use that to give a tax cut to everyone. They trumpet the fact that they would hugely raise the allowance. But they would also bring in a flat rate. And the consequence is that the benefit of the tax cut would be massively skewed to very high earners. So they would gut the public services to give huge tax breaks to the very wealthy, whilst chucking a sprat to lower paid people.

    I suspect that, when this policy is exposed to scrutiny in the election campaign, their support will fade like spring snow.

  48. Looks like its not just the tories capable of making a right mess of policy then having to U-turn on it later.

    Removing the 10p tax rate was one of the early signs of Brown’s incompetence, it’s heartening to see Ed M at least has the sense to bring it back, very rare for a politician to admit there party was in the wrong, maybe some of the tribalists from both sides of the aisle on here might like to give it a go?

  49. For sheer simplicity,I would prefer existing tax bands and also for Labour to increase the tax-free allowance eventhough the Lib Dems would get credit.

    Regarding polling,I suspect the two Robinhood measures are going to be popular.

    Given Tory angst about this policy,it looks like they were giving serious consideration to bringing in the 10 p tax rate themselves.So the opposition stole the policy from the government who themselves stole it from the government when they were the opposition.All is fair in politics I suppose.

  50. The idea that people working for Gordon Brown were “part of a team” is almost amusing. I’ve tried imagining him saying “…and what do you think of my idea of scrapping the 10p tax band?”

    But I’ve failed.

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