This morning’s Times has Ipsos MORI’s quarterly poll on Scottish public opinion. Full details are on the MORI website here.

Holyrood constituency voting intention stands at CON 13%(nc), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), SNP 43%(+3) – changes are from the last MORI poll in October 2012.

Voting intention in the Independence referendum stands at YES 34%(+4), NO 55%(-3).


90 Responses to “Latest MORI Scottish Political Monitor”

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  1. McNooooooooooooooo Thread The Nooooooooooo !!!!!!!!!

  2. The ‘Vote No’ campaign’s beginning to work then….

  3. Aye, in a way…………….

  4. The yes lot are rumoured to be offering Irn Bru and tunnocks wafers.

  5. Well, it won’t affect us down here what they do. Will the SNP disband if they achieve their desire? It would seem logical. I expect a Nat can put me wise.

  6. Life is just to much of a bitch at present. Labour in a very good lead nationally and the majority of Scots want to stay in the Union. I would take up heavy claret consumption, but I did so many years ago.

  7. have you tried irn bru ………………

  8. Will the SNP disband?

    Nobody knows. The Scottish branches of the three UK parties will recover though we should have something to the left of Labour whether a new Socialist party, or a split in SLAB.

    Almost any Labour leader prominently involved in the NO campaign would have to go. The Conservatives would be well advised to appoint Murdo Fraser the thinking Conservative. Greens could be make progress [the SNP surge overwhelmed their quite realitic expectations in 2011. The Socialists will be back in oneform or another.

    There has to be compensatory losses from the SNP, but at least initially they will still be the biggest party.

    As things stand (independence or not) only two parties have the numbers to lead a government, and labour’s talent (and leadership) is elsewhere.

    So SNP has got to shrink but they will still dominate in the rural North.

  9. howard

    “Well, it won’t affect us down here what they do.”

    Losing 50 or so Labour advantage won’t make Con/Coalition majority easier?

  10. The SP voting intention is significant. A Labour partisan on here predicted, as if it were a matter of natural law, that SNP VI would fall by now in mid second term.

    That is a Westminster myth. It explains why the alternate elite gets into bat in this, the best of all possible parliaments. Otherwise they wouldn’t play the game, though Cons should be the normal party of government in maybe 3/5 or 3/4 parliaments. That’s the theory anyway.

    Not that their VI is the SNP’s doing.Their USP is Slab’s negativity and lack of vision. The SNP have the talent and are working very hard because they want to be part of the team that delivered independence whatever the personal cost.

    Soon after they were first elected Christian Schmit sized them up and told you here: “Bog standard competent government and a few minor gimmicks”

    Competence is such a novelty. People are infatuated with it.

    Do you think that after independence we might get something even better? Vision

  11. Oh Scotland.

    How can you not vote to be your own country and govern yourselves?

    Why let others govern you?

  12. Before I believed such a large swing on the referendum, I’d want to see an explanation that most of it wasn’t natural variation.

    1% swing, maybe 2% with a bit of rounding, I’d accept that.

    If you back the jockey(s) rather than the horse, then it is a certain win for YES. If TB is put in charge, the odds are doubled.

    If the BBC put on enough archive footage to mark the Thatcher funeral you could get a bigger YES surge than any leaders debate or PPB. From the BBC’s point of view it is cheap programming, public interest, pre-prepared and ingratiates them with the government. What could be better than that?

  13. That Old Bloke

    “Why let others govern you?”

    Fear of change. The majority want more devolution according to pollsters. I think they actually want creeping independence. That is, they quite fancy the idea, but not now, and definately not all at once.

    Otherwise why would we leave foregn affairs and defence with UK when illegal wars and Trident are big drivers of independence? Reoncile that if you can.

  14. @John B Dick

    Do we know the date of the referendum?

    Assuming it’s Summer 2014, you have about a year and a quarter to close the gap.

    I think it’s unlikely. If the Tories were doing better down South, you’d be in a better position up there.

    But as you say it will happen eventually.

  15. Mr Salmond’s net satisfaction rating continues to fall and is now +7%, down from +35% in December 2011.

    Scottish Labour Leader Johann Lamont continues to improve her profile among Scots – 39% of Scots are satisfied with her performance, compared with 31% who are dissatisfied. This gives her a net satisfaction rating of +8%, which has increased by three points since October and is now higher than the first Minister’s.

    The Deputy First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon has recently been given a more prominent role in the pro-independence campaign. Half of Scots are satisfied with her performance (50%) while around a third are dissatisfied (33%), giving her a net satisfaction score of +17% (the proportion of those satisfied minus the proportion of those dissatisfied).

    This is considerably higher than the rating for Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-union ‘Better Together’ campaign. Around a third of Scots are satisfied with his performance (33%), while a similar proportion are dissatisfied (32%), giving the former Chancellor a net satisfaction rating of +1%. In addition, 35% of Scots feel unable to rate his performance as leader of the Better Together campaign, double the 17% who are unable to rate Nicola Sturgeon.

  16. As you know I’m Pro Eu, but I’ve seen an interesting news artcile that will put smiles on the Eurosceptics faces.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21439945

    Clearly it is possible to have free trade with the EU, but not be in it/pay for it.

    I can’t see the US agreeing to the EU regulating its Bananas/workforce, or the US agreeing to pay for the privilige of exporting to Europe.

    Maybe Cam and the Eurosceptics, will seek a deal similar to whatever one Obama achieves?

  17. Short of an OM in a Holyrood election, with the SNP on 60 seats, and forced to pick between Lib on 6 (who wants another Lib coalition?), Con on 15 (who wants to ally themselves with Con in Scotland?), and Lab on 47 (SNP and Lab are hardly chummy).

    Minority government once more it would seem, if there were an election tomorrow. Those figures are not too different from the 2011 election. Lab is up a bit.

    If those figures were the numbers for the Westminster election, there’s every possibility that if there were no OM, the largest party might be forced to form an alliance with the SNP who get 33 seats.

    All pie in the sky, of course.

  18. MiM

    I see two significant problems with your thoughts..

    1) the UK is not the US and there are not the benefits in Europe working with the UK that there would be with the US.

    2) if the UK leaves the EU do you not think that there many EU countries would not wish to have anything to do with us. Never having been part of an agreement is totally different to withdrawing from a treaty.

  19. RAF
    @John B Dick

    Do we know the date of the referendum?

    It isn’t announced but to within a couple of weeks it can be worked out.

    I don’t remember the speculative date.

  20. Pretty good poll for both SNP and the Yesers.

    Salmond is unbelievably popular for a First Minister in his sixth year in the post and was only +4 in this same poll back in 2010.

    The Nats rating is equally extraordinary for a party well into its second term. Plus they have not one but two of the most popular leaders in the country.

    The closing of the gap with the Nayers is small but perhaps significant – just like the turn of the tide.

  21. “Short of an OM in a Holyrood election, with the SNP on 60 seats, and forced to pick between Lib on 6 (who wants another Lib coalition?), Con on 15 (who wants to ally themselves with Con in Scotland?), and Lab on 47 (SNP and Lab are hardly chummy).

    Minority government once more it would seem, if there were an election tomorrow. Those figures are not too different from the 2011 election. Lab is up a bit.”

    Donald Dewar c 1954 was enthused by the availability of the three different options and a variety of possible coalitions if there were more parties.

    The LibDems missed a trick last time. They may not get the chance next time.

    There are 2 Greens and 4 ex-nationalists (2 anti-Nato, 1 wifebeater disgraced and The Margo) The SNP have the PO but in a NOM situation they couldn’t afford that.

  22. Peter Bell

    Actually I think the Uk does more trade with Europe than the US does and certainly a lot more than South Korea, but they still got a free trade deal.

    Also, if the EU countries dislike as so much as you suggest (they don’t by the way) then by your own logic surely they’d rather have us out of the way but in the free market,than our current position of ruining all their plans. We wouldn’t leave then ask to rejoin the free market, we’d have membership of the free market as a condition of our leaving.

    I’m not saying we should do this, I hope we stay in the EU, but I dislike it when people put the UK down, and say “we couldnt survive etc” when in actual fact we could.

    It’s a long running British tradition to put Britain down and say how weak we are and be modest, actually we’re the 7th biggest economy in the world. I really doubt the EU would pass up an opportunity to carry on free trade with the 7th biggest economy in the world. Plus as we import more than we export, the EU countries would be at a financial loss.

  23. “If those figures were the numbers for the Westminster election, there’s every possibility that if there were no OM, the largest party might be forced to form an alliance with the SNP who get 33 seats”

    There are many anti-cons who vote SNP for SP and Lab for.UKP.

    If that were to change the SNP are not far away from the FPTP bonus.

    For Labour It would be bloody. UKIP are just a midgie bite by comparison. SLAB would be in therapy.

    The SNP aim used to be 50%+1 MPs, at which point they would seceed and reconvene in Edinburgh.

  24. Can I go to bed now, please?

  25. A few words of warning folks. Firstly while there is a bit of an uptick for Yes and the SNP from MORI’s October figures, they’re not actually that different from the one before that in June. So it may just be the October one that’s a blip rather than there being an unstoppable movement towards a glorious post-colonial future.

    Secondly the strict “certain to vote” filter that MORI use means that Margins of Error are high – +/-3.6 on independence, +/-4 on SP voting. So this could well be normal variation (remember these are plus or minus on the Yes/No or Party percentages, not on leads).

    Thirdly there is the usual problem that MORI only ask about constituency vote. This means the minor Parties seem very low with only 5 Greens (in total not percent) and not a single UKIP, BNP or any sort of Socialist. But it means that it’s difficult to predict the SP numbers from these percentages. It’s also a very low number compared (about a quarter as in the previous two polls) so it may indicate an odd sample as well.

    All in all this suggests that the position in Scotland hasn’t really changed, with Independence low 30s for Yes and low 50s for No.

  26. Expat: “Pretty good poll for both SNP and the Yesers.

    Salmond is unbelievably popular for a First Minister in his sixth year in the post and was only +4 in this same poll back in 2010.

    The Nats rating is equally extraordinary for a party well into its second term. Plus they have not one but two of the most popular leaders in the country.

    The closing of the gap with the Nayers is small but perhaps significant – just like the turn of the tide.”

    I have the faintest suspicion this poster might be an SNP supporter.

  27. @MitM

    “…Maybe Cam and the Eurosceptics, will seek a deal similar to whatever one Obama achieves?…”

    The point is not whether Cam can achieve the same deal with the EU as Obama. The point is whether Cam can achieve the same deal with Obama should we leave the EU.

    rgdsm

  28. Is there not a case for arguing that the obstacles facing a USA-EU free trade treaty are just as great as the obstacles that would potentially face a USA-UK one?

    Everyone seems to blithely assume that EU countries would love to trade freely with the US and vice versa, whereas in fact there are huge areas of protected trade (for example agriculture) where some EU countries would fight tooth and nail to avoid free trade.

    Trade-friendly, pro-competition Britain might be an easier negotiating partner than a gaggle of 26 (27 with Croatia) Euronations all arguing for the protected status of their olives/tobacco/sugar beet/whatever.

    Besides, I don’t see the USA-EU talks bearing any fruit for several years yet, so it is a big hypothetical at the moment.

  29. Con 32, Lab 42, Lib 9, UKIP 9
    Approval -34

  30. @ Howard

    Well, it won’t affect us down here …

    It might force nuclear disarmament onto the rUK.

    It might lead to a changed dynamic between red and blue in the rUK parliament (Labour starting with ~40 fewer seats).

    It might lead to Wales and NI looking to their own solutions to international relations. As it is, the rUK is desperately looking to hold onto the ‘UK’ bit of the t, because that carries with it membership of the UN and a seat at the Top Table. Would a new country called ‘England’ go to that Table? I think not …

    No effects, then.

  31. What I meant was that as Lab are sitting roughly on a 100 majority, losing 50 will only be helpful to Miliband (easier to whip those awkward lefty rebels) and if it gets a bit too close, just make a deal with the LDs.

    I don’t know why Scots want to remain a vassal state but that’s their choice I suppose. As for the LDs up there, even more impossible to understand. They believe in local control, but not for themselves apparently.

  32. From the poll –
    Cameron extends his best PM lead –
    Cameron 34 (+1)
    Miliband 22 (-3)
    Clegg 5 (-1)

    Best for Britain?
    Con Majority – 28 (-1)
    Con/Lib coalition – 8 (nc)
    Lab/Lib coalition 12 (-1)
    Lab Majority – 32 (+1)
    Total Con – 36 (-1)
    Total Lab – 44 (nc)
    DK – 20 (+1)

    With DKs removed –
    Con – 35 (-1)
    Con/Lib – 10 (nc)
    Lab/Lib – 15 (-1)
    Lab Majority – 40 (+2)
    Con – 45 (-1)
    Lab – 55 (+1)
    No real change.

    I do wish, now that UKIP are polling as high as the LDs, that we had UKIP subsamples – the answers to Best PM/Best for Britain/etc would be interesting for them.

  33. Related to Scotland in a way, given the SNP’s energy policy – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9868388/Households-asked-to-put-a-wash-on-when-its-windy.html

    If successful (and there is no technical reason why it wouldn’t be) this would help answer some of the critics of the variability of wind power.

    This is precisely the kind of behaviour adopted by people living with off grid generating systems, so is perfectly practical to apply on a wider scale, with smart meter and text technology. i rather like the idea on another level too, in that it helps us reconnect with energy and appreciate it, instead of simply assuming it’s there and available to us come what may. It could even help us be a little less profligate with it.

  34. “If those figures were the numbers for the Westminster election, there’s every possibility that if there were no OM, the largest party might be forced to form an alliance with the SNP who get 33 seats”

    -But they aren’t Labour show a 21% lead over SNP in VI for Westminster

    Assuming Labour do better than they did in the last Hollyrood election, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum, then the Scottish electoral system will mean that there is no majority Government and it will be the SNP who has to look for allies if it wishes to remain in office.
    I am not sure where it will find them.

    Unless of Course Salmond wishes to try to introduce FPTP

  35. 14 candidates for the Eastleigh byelection.

    Green, Respect and BNP are the most notable asentees
    (fwiw BNP appears to be disintegrating: h
    ttp://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/02/neo-nazi-former-bnp-members-launch-new-far-right-party).

    A tentative finishing order:

    Liberal Democrat
    Conservative
    Labour
    UKIP
    Health Action
    English Democrats
    Wessex Regionalist
    TUSC
    Independent
    Monster Raving Loony
    Christian
    Peace
    Elvis Loves Pets Party
    Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party.

  36. Billy Bob

    I think you are underestimating the Crumpet vote

  37. Neil A

    “Everyone seems to blithely assume that EU countries would love to trade freely with the US and vice versa, whereas in fact there are huge areas of protected trade (for example agriculture) where some EU countries would fight tooth and nail to avoid free trade”

    The US Will also fight tooth and nail to preserve it’s own agricultural subsidies which although they are less direct are of a similar financial worth as the European ones. The us sees food as a geopolitical tool, and the Pentagon has written many papers on the importance of America’s agri power.

  38. Roger Mexico

    “A few words of warning folks. Firstly while there is a bit of an uptick for Yes and the SNP from MORI’s October figures, they’re not actually that different from the one before that in June. So it may just be the October one that’s a blip”

    Yes. Next one will be no real change. The YES may get there in the end,but not that quick unless TB gets involved.

  39. 2012 Q4 GDP :-

    Germany -down 0.6%
    France-down 0.3%

    Back revisions to the French figures showed its output fell by 0.1 percent in each of the first and second quarters of 2012, meaning the country has already experienced one bout of recession in the last twelve months.

  40. STEVE

    “Unless of Course Salmond wishes to try to introduce FPTP”

    Not a chance. He’s a democrat. It would strike at the raison d’etre of the Home Rule parliament – to provide better government and act as a model for the reform of Westminster.

    The Parliament, the party, the churches,STUC civic Scotland would not allow it.

    It would be contrary to the Founding Principles

  41. PwC calculate that shale oil production could increase ten fold to 14m brls pd., pushing oil prices down by 25% to 40% & adding 2.3% to 3.7% to global GDP.

    Benefit in UK could add 2% to 3.3% to GDP by 2035

  42. @Steve

    I did say “pie in the sky”. Minority government worked quite well for the SNP last time. It showed the electorate how the opposition parties tried to block out the SNP on worthwhile issues, and how allied parties (Green) can get some crumbs of what they want.

    @All

    Yesterday’s MAD data showed a 10.0 point lead for Labour. Today’s poll data reinforces that.

    Regarding Scottish polling, the last 20 / 10 polls averages:

    Con: 18.8 / 18.8
    Lab: 44.5 / 43.2
    Lib: 9.1 / 9.5
    SNP: 23.4 / 24.1

    Labour have enjoyed plenty of success in the past year or so. While the actual polls are so messy, due to the cross-break issues, the mad data chart for the past 11 months is quite interesting:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/lab-scot-mad.png

    The question is, have Labour peaked, and if so will they maintain it or drop? Or will they consolidate their success and grow even more?

  43. NHS whistleblower breaks a £500,000 gagging agreement .
    Former CEO of United Lincs Hospital Trust wrote to Sir David Nicholson in 2009 warning that patients were in danger because of targets. His letter was ignored & he was sacked in 2010 with a half million pound “supergag”.

    Hunt must act on Nicholson.

  44. The overall changes are all within the margin of error, and showing support for independence at less than the June poll in this series.

    The interesting thing which seems to have been picked up in the press is the surge in support for Yes amongst 18-24 year olds.

    However, the tables show that this sub-sample was only about 100 strong in the poll (and had to be upweighted quite a bit), that this group were the most uncertain about how they were voting, and also the least likely to actually vote too.

    Ultimately its “No Change” on all fronts.

    In terms of Holyrood VI, its not surprising that things havnt changed here, as we know from previous polling compared to election results, the Scottish population isnt really thinking about a Holyrood election 3 years away, when theres the referendum to get out the way, and of course Westminster elections after that. Polls after May 2015 about Holyrood will be the ones to look at for signs of change.

    As for the SNP being competent, I think thats a matter of opinion. What is true is that they havnt done anything radical, in most cases simply passing on the cuts, adding some of their own.

  45. With regards to this latest Mori, there is an interesting figure in the crossbreaks for 18 to 24 year olds that seems to suggest that support for independence amongst that group has leapt from 29% to 58%. No other group in the sample has shown any such change, and no other recent polls such as TNS BRMB or Survation have shown anything similar, and this is leading me to believe that it is an odd sample for that group. However it has affected the overall poll to give a swing of 3.5% towards independence since October. The swing may therefore be much less than that, and then we would be getting into support stalling or holding steady mode

  46. Point of informatin Colin, barrels of oil per day abbreviates to bopd. Shall I sell or buy?

  47. Jontt

    Thanks-over excitement at the prospect of all those old people voting in a Conservative Government in 20 years time , just when the good times roll ( for a change) instead of picking up another Labour mess.

    I am not licenced to provide Fiancial Advice . Sorry

    ……you could buy a bit-keep it in a Jerry Can……if you have a garaaaage.

  48. @Steve

    Yep, the crumpet vote should never be underestimated, but I do worry about how well the “beer ‘n’ baccy” message is going down with the red wine/chocolate muffin demographic.

  49. Good idea Colin – wouldn’t it be fun if commodity traders had to accept the goods physically before they could sell them again?

  50. colin

    I’m entirely on your side on the whistleblower and getting rid of Nicholson.

    I suspect we disagree on solutions, but we are likely to agree that patient care should come first, ahead of both targets (especially ones that put non emergencies ahead of emergencies when services are stretched) and profits.

    What worries me is that solution being rolled out is essentially more of the same with a side dish of profits being taken. But we won’t get into that, I’ll just agree with you that it looks bad for Nicholson (and who was the other manager, Baroness somebody, who threatened budgets if the soft targets weren’t met ahead of emergency cases?)

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