The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 29%(-4), LAB 41%(+3), LD 13%(-2), UKIP 9%(+3), changes are from their poll last month.
The 12 point lead is not too dissimilar from what other companies are showing, but ICM normally tend to show smaller Labour leads thanks to the reallocation of some don’t knows to the parties they voted for in 2010 (an adjustment that these days tends to help the Lib Dems and hinder Labour). The trend is the thing to watch… and the trend here shows a sharp movement towards Labour. It’s not something we have seen reflected in other polls over the last couple of days, so usual caveats apply – sure, it could be the first sign of a further swing towards Labour… or it could be normal sample error.
UPDATE: Meanwhile the weekly TNS-BMRB poll has topline figures of CON 31%(+3), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 10%(-1). No obvious sign of any big swing towards Labour there.