Lord Ashcroft has commissioned a poll of voters in Eastleigh ahead of the by-election, due for the 28th February. It’s due for release at midnight, but rather embarassingly the Guardian managed to break the embargo and shove it on their website at ten to six. While they’ve taken it down again, the whole of twitter have already retweeted it, so we know that it will show CON 34%(-5), LAB 19%(+9), LDEM 31%(-16), UKIP 13%(+9).

More to come after midnight, no doubt, but the poll would appear to confirm that the race starts out, as expected, as being between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Interestingly enough, while the Liberal Democrats have done extremely well at recent local elections in Eastleigh, the figures here suggest a decline in their vote of much the same size as in their national polling.

UPDATE: Lord Ashcroft’s analysis and tables are now up on his website. It is indeed extremely close – the difference between the Conservatives and Lib Dems is all down to turnout (the poll actually found slightly more Lib Dem voters than Conservative ones, but the Conservative ones said they were considerably more likely to vote).

312 Responses to “Lord Ashcroft polls Eastleigh”

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  1. Walter Mondale to Gary Hart – ‘where’s the beef’?’ – little did we know it was all horse****…..

  2. @ Martyn

    Thanks for pointing out my typo.

  3. Ja vi elsker dette landet” is the national anthem of Norway. A translation of the first verse follows….

    Yes, we love this country
    as it rises forth
    rugged, weathered, above the sea
    with the thousands of homes
    Love, love it and think of our father and mother
    and the saga night that sends dreams to our earth

    The translation doesn’t really capture the spirt of it

  4. @SocalLiberal – ‘And what’s up with all this “not a rich, Tory toff” stuff?’

    Maria Hutchings has to be referencing the MP for Bedfordshire Nadine Dorries:

    “I think that not only are Cameron and Osborne two posh boys who don’t know the price of milk, but they are two arrogant posh boys who show no remorse, no contrition, and no passion to want to understand the lives of others – and that is their real crime.”

    Nadine had the Tory whip suspended for appearing on I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here, so is now an independent. Sir George Samuel Knatchbull Young, 6th Baronet and chief whip is monitoring her progress toward rebuilding relations with the party.

    Dorries (née Bargery) worked for a while as assistant to one of the more endearing Tory characters, Oliver Letwin… a cabinet office chief who likes to work alfresco, and in his bumbling way was caught on camera filing superfluous documents in a St James’s Park litter bin. Letwin is also famous for inviting a couple into his house when they knocked on the door at 5am asking for a glass of water. The encounter ended with him chasing them up the street in his dressing gown and slippers after they made off with credit cards etc.

    I like to imagine Oliver a bit overcome by the sheepish way they return his belongings. In a rush of fellow feeling he entreats them “Well, what do you say we let bygones be bygones? All friends together. How about you two rogues join me for a cup of breakfast tea, I’ll toast some muffins… I wonder if there’s any of that damson jam left.”

    Scene ends with the two surreptitiously pocketing silver spoons before departing, as Letwin, at an elegantly draped window, wistfully declaims:

    “Kissing sometimes these purple ports of death,
    The winds all silent are,
    And Phœbus in his chair,
    Ensaffroning sea and air,
    Makes vanish every star;
    Night like a drunkard reels
    Beyond the hills to shun his flaming wheels…”

  5. Looks like we’re expecting an Eastleigh/Survation poll tonight.
    If it’s the same one Tim Montgomery is hinting at, it should show Libs ahead of Con.

  6. NEIL A
    You may be missing the point. The appearance of horse-meat in products sold as or assumed to be beef is a systemic failure of an EU management of meat marketing and inspection which, when it was introduced, supposedly would improve UK meat marketing for the consumer and the producer, and in the interests of animal welfare. The system would permit subsidiarity; that is, the retention and local management of structures and procedures benefiting local producers, markets and consumers, such as that of small abbatoirs, maintained in Devon in a context of farming and hunting and of marketing of the Devon breed, and of a deep seated concern with animal welfare.
    It is however, there and elsewhere, wholly within the responsibility of the Commission to maintain and monitor animal and meat movements and quality. There is a need for coverage of the problem to be aware of and explore a systemic problem of competence. It should not be dismissed as an ephemeral issue or one which relates only to the retail end of the chain.

  7. Paulcroft

    “I think people are very rude about the French – how would you like it if you were French?”

    Je ne parle pas anglais

  8. Frankly I wouldn’t like it at all if I was French. I expect I’d probably emigrate and get myself naturalised elsewhere…

  9. Nei A

    Exactement my point. It must be bad enough being French without people banging on about it all the time.

    Live and let live sez I.

  10. PS: Breaking news !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I’ve got a new pair of slippers.

  11. Although I didn’t expect this I think Nick Clegg may well come out of the coalition fairly well by 2015. He has been impressively resilient and I’m not sure they have better alternatives.

    Still feel they will win Eastleigh OK and if that is the case it will be a big boost and a huge blow to Cons.

  12. NEW THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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