This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. It follows another nine point lead yesterday. While it isn’t definite (the figures have a horrible habit of proving me wrong the moment I suggest something may be a meaningful trend, and the underlying lead could still be about 7 or 8 points, with these just normal variation on the high side), but it is looking as if the Conservative referendum bounce is fading already.


181 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 7”

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  1. SHEVII

    I thought one of their Ministers said the country is “bankrupt” ?

    Anyway- Beckham eh?.

    Lose a Gallic icon-gain a has been footballer-doesn’t sound a deal to me.

    I expect French GDP to decline on the exchange as his salary exceeds the value of the T shirts.

    At least Hollande has saved us from seeing Beckham poncing around on English football grounds.

  2. Colin

    Hollande is a football manager?? He’s a busy lad if he’s running the country and running a football team, I wonder if sir Alex is looking for a second job?

  3. @RogerMexico – ” … they don’t seem as thorough at picking up all the polls as our Dear Leader.”

    Yes there are gaps, the pitfall of a collaborative project perhaps. Looking at the long list of contributors, a handful seem to be responsible for the lion’s share of the work – one, the most prolific, seems to have given up; another is busy creating pages for early 20thC general elections in Spain.

    Interesting to compare with the 2012 local elections page… “details” for every council/ward are still far from complete, but well up on the last time I looked… I can’t think where else this information can be found so readily:

    h
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

  4. ANN in WALES

    @”Who
    Knows now he is striding the world stage, that is never a bad thing for a Beleaguered PM.”

    Indeed so :-

    http://www.france24.com/en/20130131-hollande-unpopular-france-economy-strike

  5. @Robert Newark

    ….. but I suspect that it is a ‘lefty generalism’ statement.

    —–

    Neither lefty nor generaliser, but isn’t your comment a generalisation too?

  6. Richard

    @” I wonder if sir Alex is looking for a second job?”

    Could be-what do you reckon?

    A key Diplomatic role somewhere-the UN perhaps?

  7. R in N,quite,that is what I meant,but I have to tread rather carefully.Or else I
    Get obliterated.Sorry moderated.

  8. Colin,thank you for the link.It is difficult to avoid a certain cynicism,n’est ce pas?

  9. He does seem to be doing a bit of the old Blair shuttle diplomacy.

    I think Cameron should really take a risk and fly in to Pyongyang then Tehran and try to get some diplomacy going again.

  10. I meant to add, purely from an entertainment perspective of course……..

  11. POLL NEWS?

  12. @HOODED MAN

    They`ll sure get good odds for it.Paddypower is offering 9/2 for a Tory majority I understand!

  13. AW – What’s with my comment moderation….blacklisted?

  14. We’ve now had 5 polls – i.e. a full week’s worth – that could have been affected by since Cameron’s speech.

    And the mean Lab lead in those polls is 8.0% (9 9 6 6 10)

    In the previous week it was 10.0% (12 10 9 9 10)

    And in the week before that 11.6% (9 12 13 13 11)

    Something or more likely things has caused the quite rapid narrowing over that period. Cameron’s speech is the prime suspect for the change in the past week. Some have speculated that it was so widely trailed that its impact could have started to take effect further in advance, but I’m not altogether convinced by that. Some of it might be down to Dave the strutting the world stage in a wider context. Perhaps the unemployment figures have kicked in somewhere, although the day given over to coverage of lousy GDP figures could just as easily have acted in the opposite direction. Probably a bit of moe as a joker in the pack. Who knows the precise mix.

    But whatever the causes, from my own political perspective I’m quite disheartened. It looked a couple of weeks back as though the Lab lead was on a very slight upward trend which would take it into the low to mid teens as the year wore on. There is after all an awful lot of grief in the immediate pipeline for personal finances, particularly at the bottom end of the scale. Over the next few months. I still think the Lab lead will go back into double figures more often than not. But the prospect of a regular lead in the range 13% to 15%, which seemed to me to be reachable by the late Spring, now seems a very distant wish.

  15. I know people here are excited by bounces or lack of them but I firmly believe that there is still all to play for in 2015 still. The Tories are still around only 3 points below their 2010 GE level and will the current Labour lead persist when their economic policies, when announced, at last come under scrutiny? Will probably have to wait 2 years to find out though and who knows what might happen in the meantime, either way. It might come down to, better the devil you know. Exciting times ahead.

  16. PHIL HAINES.
    Good Evening to you. I agree with your analysis.

    There is no causal link between bad news and the Labour VI however, in my opinion.

    No alternative policy for both reducing debt and growth for the economy has been presented. I am also sorry to say that ED M may not be seen as PM material.

  17. Sayeeda Warsi is on Question time tonight, Tories best kiss the rest of that EU bounce goodbye

  18. Looking at the QT panel, where is the usual champagne socialist this week?

  19. @ Phil Haines

    I just think that you are thinking far too much on a week’s polls. Sometimes the people on here (who are all knowledgeable) over complicate things and read far too much and too deeply into things.
    The electorate as a rule do not do as you.

    I think that Cameron has made a huge strategic error in announcing a referendum so early. That’s all I’m going to say as I don’t want to get moderated.

  20. @ROGER MEXICO

    Thanks for your detailed reply.

  21. Colin
    Somehow the first part of my post got lost in the cut & paste.
    You posted an interesting link above. It becomes less likely that our Ed will be able to point to socialist success in France in a year or two & more likely that Dave can point to the failure of an alternative policy to the one being followed by him & GO.
    As I said above, still all to play for but I don’t see the polls narrowing for another 2 years. A marathon isn’t a sprint, after all.

  22. Welcome back Valerie

    Ann in Wales….it was not the last throw perhaps, that one is ‘Ed is a wonky geek and couldn’t possibly be PM’

  23. @Phil Haines – I have much less concern than you regarding the recent minor poll movements. Apart from the fact that things appear to be moving back in Labour’s favour already, the underlying point is that Tories were expecting this to give them a much more substantial boost. Right leaning commentators in the hours after the speech were jubilant and predicting all kinds of poll ramifications – and then went very silent on the matter when it became clear this wasn’t going to happen.

    Here on UKPR we even had @tingedfringe claiming there would be a very big lift to Tory VI – again, completely misplaced.

    The bottom line is that a big shot has been fired, and it has fallen well short of expectations. Worse than that, Cameron has willfully introduced a level of uncertainty over EU relationships. This has drawn criticism from business, and has opened up a real division within Tory ranks, all without burying UKIP.

    Like much that we have seen from Cameron, the speech itself was good and well crafted, but the conceptual thinking around it was like a fart in a lift – wrong on so many levels. He’s made life harder for himself and easier for Ed. Again.

  24. You are woefully optimistic Alec. The publics viewpoint is MILES away from EM’s on this issue, exposure on immigration, europe, crime and punishment will only help the tories as would health etc. for labour

  25. Alan Johnson talking sense on immigration as I knew he would, wonder if the left will attack him like they did me over it?

    I’ve always said Alan Johnson would be a great PM. He understands the working class and combines being left wing politics with common sense.

  26. Alan Johnson please run for Labour leader and PM

  27. @Joe R – I don’t agree. The public’s view (as discerned by opinion polls) tends to be to have a referendum on everything, but as AW continually points out, Europe has low salience.

    The reason this has bombed is that we don’t have a proposal. The announcement covered something in 5 years time, yet to be negotiated, with Cameron telling us he would vote yes anyway. Bit pointless really.

    There are certainly many practical issues linked to Europe that resonate, but I’m afraid the conclusion I’ve drawn from the public response to the speech was one of yawning indifference. At best, a few UKIP waverers drifted back for a couple of days, but on the other hand, the splits that have emerged within Tory ranks has reminded many of the good old days.

    We could all be proved wrong, but had the public really been clamouring for a referendum, I would have expected a much bigger poll shift.

  28. Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics

    Sun/YouGov poll tonight: CON 32, LAB 44, LDEM 10, UKIP 8. Labour’s 12 point lead returns. Cam’s EU bounce dead after just a week?

  29. MiM
    “Alan Johnson please run for Labour leader and PM”

    I believe he’s a Catholic, so there would be constitutional consequences if he became PM. I think the law would have to be changed, as he would have to advise Her Majesty on appointing the Archbishop of Canterbury for instance.

    It doesn’t mean he couldn’t be PM, just that it would be more complicated than the usual process.

    Of all the top Labour people at the moment, he does seem to be the only sensible one – possibly because he once had a real job.

  30. @Alec

    “Like much that we have seen from Cameron, the speech itself was good and well crafted, but the conceptual thinking around it was like a fart in a lift – wrong on so many levels.”

    Anybody would think you were talking about a PR man and not a Prime Minister. Mind you, hang on a minute, wasn’t Cameron…………………………..

    @Katie

    “Sun/YouGov poll tonight: CON 32, LAB 44, LDEM 10, UKIP 8. Labour’s 12 point lead returns. Cam’s EU bounce dead after just a week?”

    Some polls didn’t detect a bounce at all, remember. Why on earth anyone thought that a speech about something that may or may not happen in 5 years time, and on a subject that only animates Tory MPs and tabloid newspaper editors, would make one iota of difference to the political weather is quite beyond me. It altered the direction of churn between UKIP and the Tories for a few days, gave Cameron’s personal ratings a minor boost and that was just about that.

    We should all move on.

  31. Wasn’t Tony Blair Catholic???

  32. @Pete B

    “…I believe he’s a Catholic, so there would be constitutional consequences if he became PM…”

    Er, Iain Duncan Smith and Charles Kennedy were both Catholics, Ed Miliband and Michael Howard were both Jewish (the former non-practicing?), Blair’s conversion to Catholicism took place partly during his time as Prime Minister, and Kinnock was an atheist. A non-Anglican Prime Minister is not a constitutional problem.

    rgdsm

  33. Mike Smithson [email protected]

    New Ashcroft phone poll has CON 33/LAB 38/LD 11/Ukip 9. He says main impact of Dave speech is making Tories feel better – not moving votes

  34. AW

    ” it is looking as if the Conservative referendum bounce is fading already.”

    If there was a bounce. How can we be certain that:

    the referendum put Con VI up.
    something else faded and made it look so
    something new put it down again
    Lab did something bad/good/bad
    The weather hasn’t been the cause.

    People talk about the weather more than politics. In Scotland we always blame the Tories for bad weather.

  35. @Alec

    I’m quite happy for my pessimism to be shown to be a bit premature by this morning’s YouGov poll. Cheered me up no end in time for bed. But I think you’re counting a few chickens with your comment:

    “The reason this has bombed is that we don’t have a proposal. The announcement covered something in 5 years time, yet to be negotiated, with Cameron telling us he would vote yes anyway. Bit pointless really.”

    Yes, it’s all a bit far off and vague at the moment. But as time passes it won’t be. It’ll be just around the corner in 2015. Cameron will no doubt be fleshing out his negotiating stance to the gallery between now and then, and even if the social chapter could prove a two edged sword for him, there are still plenty of populist themes he could play to.

    And consider this:

    1. It’s bombed in terms of right wing commentators’ expectations of it, but who cares about that? Whilst it’s nice to note their schadenfreude, their opinion matters no more than yours or mine. What matters is that it has shown, for the second time in a year, that forcing the issue of Europe up the agenda has the capacity to generate a significant if apparently short lived poll bounce for the Conservatives. If they manage to engineer a similarly significant and short lived poll bounce for a few days around 7 May 2015, that is all they need.

    2. Apart from a George Osborne budget in all its finery, I’m struggling to think of any issue that has shown its capacity to generate such a clear cut (even if apparently temporary) movement in the polls. (You have to go all the way back to April 2012 to find the last time that the Lab lead was down to 6% in two consecutive YouGov polls.) Usually things we might expect to impact on VI fail to register at all, as AW is fond of reminding us. We should be wary of the potential impact of anything that has shown the capacity to act as the exception to the rule.

  36. Crossbat

    “From the usual suspects, we even had a few “you watch the polls shift now, Miliband’s dropped another almighty goolie” predictions almost as soon as Cameron sat down. As I said at the time, we’re still where we’ve been for 11 months or so now and people really shouldn’t get so excited about minor political squalls. My hunch is that opinion has ossified and something pretty big is required to move it now. Europe never was, and never will be, such an issue.”

    Quite so, but it could have been much worse for the cons bearing in mind that they didn’t win the last election and had plenty of opportunities to lose VI.

  37. ValerieK5
    ” one thing I’ve noticed is there is a bit less “red Ed is such a geeky wonk, he’ll never be PM”.”
    Anyone care to open a book on when in his premiership the general view in the Skinner’s Arms is of Steady Eddie; always strong and well informed on issues of real importance, responsive to the mood of the people, and indifferent to the passing trivea.

  38. @Martyn

    Not to mention Benjamin Disraeli.

  39. @Valerie

    “there is a bit less “red Ed is such a geeky wonk, he’ll never be PM”.

    Has his approval rating gone up?”

    No.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/approval-ratings/leadership-ratings/

    His ratings are dropping near to the pre-conference levels.

  40. @JBD

    “In Scotland we always blame the Tories for bad weather.”

    Not all of us. Some of us don’t give any politicians credit for anything, and especially not something as important as that.

  41. Good Morning All.

    Poll surprise noted.

    Blair became a Catholic after leaving Office.

    He was viciously attacked by many people for sending his children to a Catholic school.

  42. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 31st January – CON 32%, LAB 44%, LD 10%, UKIP 8%; APP -31

    Labour lead 12

  43. It’s possible that the referendum speech did move the polls ( a bit) but the GDP news promptly moved them back again.

  44. HOODED

    Thank very much.

    Made me smile-till I saw this morning’s OP.

    Still-a nice dream eh?

  45. ROBERT

    THanks.

    Yes , I agree.

    But I’m not sure how much a Hollande crash & Burn would resonate with UK voters .

    At the end of the day DC/GO have to demonstrate that the economy has recovered in a sustainable fashion-and make people feel that it has favourably affected their own lives . That means sustained jobs growth, & control of the gap between pay & inflation.

    And that has to start happening this year to gain what Mr Carney has started calling “escape velocity”.

    ……and then this mornings 12pt Lab lead has to become an 11 pt Con lead.

    What do you think ?

  46. “Here on UKPR we even had @tingedfringe claiming there would be a very big lift to Tory VI – again, completely misplaced.”
    Don’t blame me, I drank the kool-aid like many of the sensible commentators did.

    Only Lord Ashcroft (outside of Labour partisans), who I probably should have listened to more strongly, called it correctly.

    Lord Ashcroft’s new polling is interesting because it includes a phone poll AND an internet poll –
    VI from phone poll (1008 voters – cut down to 455 after weightings, etc)
    Con 33, Lab 38, Lib 10, UKIP 9

    Online poll (2036 voters, cut down to 1216 after weightings) –
    Con 31, Lab 39, Lib 10, UKIP 13
    Fieldwork both done 25-27th January.

    His headline VI is Con 33, Lab 38, Lib 11, UKIP 9 – which seems to be the phone poll results, after DK adjustment is put it place (489 voters, there is no UKIP in the tables).

    His summary of questions also quotes the phone poll for some questions and online poll for others – given that both his phone and online poll (like others pollsters) give different VI results, taking the answers at face value may be a little dodgy?

    What government would you like to see? (Online poll) –
    Con majority – 32%
    Con/Lib – 13%
    Lab/Lib – 17%
    Lab majority – 38%
    Con Gov – 45%
    Lab Gov – 55%
    Similar results to what is found by YouGov.
    Unsurprisingly, Lab and Con voters largely want majority governments, Libs want some form of coalition (62% of 2010 Libs want some form of Lab government) and UKIP (warning: subsamples) have 56% for a Con gov, 44% for a Lab Gov.

  47. @Chrislane1945 – “Poll surprise noted.”

    Again, it’s the use of language. There was no poll surprise to any reasonable poll watchers – they have behaved precisely as predicted by the majority of sensible posters. You are surprised, so just say that, but don’t try to wrap this up as a surprise for anyone else please.

    @Phil Haines – there is something in what you say, but not (in my opinion) that much. Yes, Cameron will have the chance to flesh out more thinking on the EU by 2015, but if he goes Euro sceptic, his donors will quiver, if he goes pro EU his backbenchers will talk of leadership challenges, and all along the way he will be asked the simple question of what it would take for him to vote no. He will never answer this, so the UKIP tendency will increasingly get the message that Cameron is slippery and untrustworthy and this is just a ruse to keep them voting Tory. Which it is.

    Meanwhile, your scenario completely forgets that while the Tory party quietly chews lumps out of each other over the EU, Labour will also be crafting a message for the electorate. I don’t really know about the deep thinking in Labour ranks, but I’m personally pretty certain that it’s going to involve some guarantee of a vote on Europe – probably a referendum on any new treaty etc. It won’t be very far from Cameron’s position, but it will be much clearer and coherent, and Ed will avoid the tearing apart of his party over an unclear and unformulated policy position. He’s a much cleverer fellow than that.

  48. I’ve been a bit out of touch lately with a computer problem.

    Has there been any news on Leveson and Mr Miliband’s deadline for new statutory proposals?

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