This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. It follows another nine point lead yesterday. While it isn’t definite (the figures have a horrible habit of proving me wrong the moment I suggest something may be a meaningful trend, and the underlying lead could still be about 7 or 8 points, with these just normal variation on the high side), but it is looking as if the Conservative referendum bounce is fading already.


181 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 7”

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  1. @Statgeek
    Yes, Labour gain, trying to find previous result.

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  2. @Ozwald

    I can beat you to it! The seat was originally held by the Leader of the then Tory run Dudley Council and the Labour gain completes a hat-trick of similar by election results for the party in the borough.

    That UKIP vote is remaining stubbornly high and isn’t it nice to see BNP parties thrashed. Places like Dudley have been fertile ground for them in the past.

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  3. @BILLY BOB

    It will have some effect but not as much as previously.

    A mantra of “Tories Triple-dip” or “Labour’s mess” certainly gets through on some level.

    But, gone are the days of a homogenous view of the news depending on the paper read. Plus even the comments section on the news sites have very informative posts rather than simplistic views. I am not sure but I guess that most people read the article and the comments.

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  4. @Jim Jam

    Except that GO has effectively switched off the automatic stabilisers, by making them increase less than inflation, which is a real-terms cut.

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  5. Couper

    Or they are like me and read the comments and don’t bother with the article

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  6. @Crossbat11
    Well done! Er – on the other hand that’s blown my chances of becoming by-election monitor!

    Good to see BNP tally down. Tiz only a local result but UKIP can take some comfort in coming 3rd. Not so good for LD in 5th place.

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  7. Sun Politics actually posted about Labours 12 point lead last night. They must have read the thread on PB that they only tweet early when the Tories polling is increased or gap narrowed.
    ———————-
    The Sun may be trying to link the 12 point Labour lead to their having included an article ‘written by’ Ed in yesterday’s edition.

    It seems for the Sun that pragmatism is the order the day (at least for one day!).
    1. With the boundary changes kaput, perhaps even the Sun has to realise that Labour may well be in government after 2015;
    2. EU referendum; I believe that Rupert Murdoch wants the UK out (John Major said so). Is giving Ed space in the Sun a message to Cameron: Bring the referendum forward &/or switch yourself to Out or we might support the other guy?
    3. Leveson: IMO, The press are getting to the point where they’d prefer statutory regulation to the Privy Council thing which is being proposed.

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  8. Dead right Jay to pay for ‘investments’ with a still a net relaxation from the original plans.

    I doubt their has been a crude calculation that the votes lost due to benefit and other constraints will be compensated and more by votes due to a possibly improving Economy …. but you never know.

    A big gamble, will it pay off? I guess it depends how early and how strong any recovery is and which section of the voting population benefit or are convinced they will benefit from a Conservative (led also) Government.

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  9. The economic policy at the moment is to do enough to stop things tanking, but not enough to get growth.

    Which is pretty crazy. Might as well spend a bit extra as Labour did and actually increase our income, rather than just paying a shedload anyway while watching our debt burden rise for no benefit.

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  10. “I doubt their has been a crude calculation that the votes lost due to benefit and other constraints will be compensated and more by votes due to a possibly improving Economy …. but you never know.”

    ———–

    Well IDS did say that capital spending has a bigger multiplier than welfare. ..

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  11. @Amber Star

    I doubt that Ed Miliband would welcome any support from the Murdoch press. It may now be a negative.

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  12. @ R Huckle

    I doubt that Ed Miliband would welcome any support from the Murdoch press. It may now be a negative.
    ——————
    I agree with you.

    The dilemma for Ed is due to the One Nation thing. We’re a One Nation Party, but let’s exclude people who read Murdoch papers! That works for me but others may not think so. :-)

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  13. I wonder whether News International will do what they did in 2005-supported Blair but gave good coverage to Michael Howard too

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  14. @Smukesh

    “I wonder whether News International will do what they did in 2005-supported Blair but gave good coverage to Michael Howard too”

    I suspect, circa mid 2014, if they decide Cameron is a dead duck leading the Tories to likely defeat, rather than switch to Miliband they’ll bang the drum for Johnson. How they parachute him in (supine Tory in safe seat applying for Chiltern Hundreds, perhaps?) remains to be seen, but I’m intrigued by these fairly regular clandestine meetings between Johnson and Rupe, I have to say.

    There’s no way that the Sun will back the Leveson friendly Miliband at the next GE.

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  15. AMBER

    Thanks-very considerate of you !

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  16. @CROSSBAT11

    Mid-2014 is probably too late even for Boris to make a mark for 2015.I wondered whether Ed Miliband writing for the Sun is evidence of the new pragmatism for News International as @AMBERSTAR suggests.

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  17. And the yougov for today (not up here?!?) shows Labour 44, Tory 32.http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/02/01/update-labour-lead-12/

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  18. @carfrew
    Well IDS did say that capital spending has a bigger multiplier than welfare. ..
    ———–

    Altho, it was pointed out shortly after he said this, that capital spending had been cut too.

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  19. @Amberstar

    Presumably Labour is a “One Nation Party” to the 40% or so who according to the polls support it and is not so to the 60% or so who do not support it.

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  20. @jay

    They could try for a capital spending stimulus for the election though. ..

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  21. @Smukesh

    Although an unlikely scenario, but if Miliband is heading for a Blairesque vintage 97 coronation in early 2015 then I can see News International pragmatically preparing for the inevitable and cosying up to Labour. Until that situation transpires, if indeed it ever does, then I think they’ll agitate for an alternative Tory leader if Cameron is deemed a loser.

    I wouldn’t underestimate the Tories instinct for survival either and I could see circumstances where Johnson is parachuted into the Commons in time to stand for the leadership. There’s one or two suckers in safe seats who’d no doubt volunteer to serve the greater good and, as far fetched as it sounds, it’s plausible in extremis.

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  22. ALEC
    “I’m not averse to government stimulus, but it really needs to be focused on investment. At this stage I don’t really see either party getting to grips with this. ”
    Investment in??? R&D, design, education, technical skills, market development, renewables, access to sevices, protection of intellectual property, equality of opportunity, tolerance, enterprise, peace, reduction of spending on alleged defence, reduction of belief in US strategic studies and intelligence…..?
    Sounds good to me.

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  23. ALEC
    “I’m not averse to government stimulus, but it really needs to be focused on investment. At this stage I don’t really see either party getting to grips with this. ”
    Investment in??? R&D, design, education, technical skills, market development, renewables, access to sevices, protection of intellectual property, equality of opportunity, tolerance, enterprise, peace, reduction of spending on alleged defence, reduction of belief in US strategic studies and intelligence…..?
    Sounds good to me.
    Oh yes, reform of the banking system to permit investment … now where were we?

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  24. Sorry, double post, due to repeated CAPTCHA misbehaviour.

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  25. @crossbat11 – “Tory in safe seat”

    Richard Ottaway (Crodon South) is a *big* fan of Boris Johnson. He has already stated that he will not seek relection in 2015… No 10 has reportedly been keeping watch for any sign that he might go early.

    No doubt other candidates will be interested in a safe London seat.

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  26. Billy Bob,

    Croydon South is my constituency. Do you have any more on that Richard Ottaway story?

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  27. And we have a new thread. :-)

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  28. @Mitz

    At the end of this article:

    h
    ttp://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/cameron-speech-germanys-not-clapping/21926

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  29. Boris Johnson is also mentioned in connection with Croydon South here:

    h
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Ottaway

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  30. TOH
    “Presumably Labour is a “One Nation Party” to the 40% or so who according to the polls support it and is not so to the 60% or so who do not support it.”

    Not necessarily. They may prefer the good old three nation party: us, the plebs, and the shirkers.

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