We had the monthly ComRes online poll yesterday, today we have their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline figures here are CON 32%(+1), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 10%(+1). The changes are all well within the margin of error so are not meaningful in themselves, but it is in line with the weekend polls showing a drop in the Labour lead.

UPDATE: Today’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%, confirming the narrowing we saw in the YouGov/Sunday Times poll.


88 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%”

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  1. First.
    Any YG news?
    Thanks AW

  2. Small bounce for Conservatives seems a reasonable assumption now…

  3. Seems like Labour are losing some Euro-sceptic votes to the Tories and UKIP…But will it last till 2015?

  4. No Sun leaks or tweets/twits on YG?

  5. Thank goodness there is a new thread. I don’t know who read all the 400 on the previous (I certainly didn’t I am afraid). Rather interesting to compare the two methods of data collection by ComRes. It does not seem to make a lot of difference does it?

  6. Howard

    I didn’t either, but I’m sure there were a few gems in there as well

  7. i personally think the poll bounce for the Tories as been a bit of a damp squid. Europe is not the be all and end all its the economy and jobs or lack of them in the present situation.

  8. [Snip – don’t start that again]

    I know the rule of thumb is to wait to see a pattern rather than a few polls in isolation, but I think the referendum has provided a small little bounce to Cameron, he may have closed the gap for now by 2%, but I’m sure this won’t last, I’m sure there is some shambles, scandal or ill thought out policy on its way which will enable Labour to widen the lead again.

  9. Hmmm for all the fuss and noise Dave’s speech doesn’t seem to have changed an awful lot, the timescale is too wide 5 years, we don’t know what the situation will be in 5 days let alone 5 years.

  10. @Howard

    “Thank goodness there is a new thread. I don’t know who read all the 400 on the previous (I certainly didn’t I am afraid)”

    I read everyone and, as always, I enjoyed my own the most!

    As for tonight’s poll, further evidence to support Anthony’s summary in the preamble to the last epic thread. The Tories have enjoyed a modest boost but the furniture is more or less still positioned as it was before the tremor. No earthquake detected thus far although I don’t rule out aftershocks.

  11. David

    Add to that the fact that Cameron’s really running out of Ace’s up his sleeve, the veto last year (well Dec 11) helped him regain the lead, but his referendum pledge has failed to provide such a boost.

    The only chance Cameron has of any long term recovery is an economic recovery, and honestly what are the chances of that? Even if the economy were to recover, I still wouldn’t be confident of a Tory win, I think Labour could still win it by promising to share the proceeds of the recovery more fairly.

  12. RiN
    “I didn’t either, but I’m sure there were a few gems in there as well”

    I buried half a dozen, following Keynes’s idea that the effort people expend in trying to dig them out might kick-start the economy.

  13. It’s surprising to see that there has been no change for UKIP on 10% given Cameron’s attempt to appear Eurosceptic last week. Perhaps some Tory voters who have gone across to UKIP remain unconvinced by the PM’s ‘guarantee’ with respect to an in/out referendum?

  14. it might not be a huge bounce, but I wonder whether Labour might be thinking they should be further ahead, mid term against a Govt carrying out significant austerity. Remember, wasn’t Michael Foot once 13 points clear…

  15. RichO
    “Remember, wasn’t Michael Foot once 13 points clear…”

    He was once 16 points clear.

    Are you expecting the Labour party to split and for us to launch a salvation force to the South Atlantic? Because, if not, I’m not sure what relevance Foot’s poll ratings have for the likely outcome in 15.

  16. Re: hi-tech vs. Race-to-the-bottom (FPT)

    Krugman won a Nobel (OK, pseudo-Nobel) for showing how countries can continue to sell into markets while competing with countries with lower wage costs etc.

    There are a number of reasons why the likes of the Germans continue to have success with it:

    1) Economies of scale. It’s more efficient to concentrate production of a particular model of car in fewer factories

    2) Consumers like choice. Hence the proliferation of brands and models

    3) Transport costs, obviously.

    Basically, consumers don’t all want to buy a Trabant. They want lots of different models. It’s not realistic for all the different brands and models to be serviced by just a few countries in SE Asia…

  17. The tumbleweed is rolling across the SunPolitics twitter feed. Can only be good news for Labour in the next YG poll.

  18. “customers don’t all want to buy a Trabant”

    Bimey!

  19. MitM

    I don’t know, I think that so few people are really expecting the economy to improve that a sudden swing upwards in the economy might well swing it for the tories, but not the spluttering which they have been bigging up recently. It would have to be something decent which gave people hope of something better. To be honest I don’t think the sharing the proceeds of the recovery will be such an effective slogan, it would seem to suggest that social policy would be more important than economy . I suspect that most folk are focused on turning the economy round. Of course i do think that the economy wont be turned around until we adjust the serious imbalance in our economy, most obvious of which is the huge wealth and income inequality but a minority opinion I fear

  20. Are you expecting the Labour party to split and for us to launch a salvation force to the South Atlantic? Because, if not, I’m not sure what relevance Foot’s poll ratings have for the likely outcome in 15.

    @lefty, the relevance is clear isn’t it? Mid term leads don’t equal certain election victory, especially if the lead belongs to a left wing leader (ok not hard left, but further left than Blair). the British public, especially the middle classes, are generally distrustful of anything too far left, in my humble opinion anyway.

  21. YG Poll is out

    Lab 41%
    Tory 35%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 9%

    There is no bounce. 35% is just the upper end of Tory polling and 41% is average for Labour.

  22. OK, here’s a thing.

    At the election, Labour polled 29%. One might reasonably consider this a pretty robust core vote, given the situation they were in when entering the election.

    But since then, having hoovered up some lib Dems, how many of these might now be considered “core vote” for Labour? I mean, given they have switched parties, one might consider them floaters and a rather soft component of the vote.

    But they switched because if the wholesale lib-dem-manifesto-capitulation thing. Many will still be committed to a lot more of the Labour offering rather than the Coalition’s. They actually thought the lib dems more leftie than lsbour in a lot of ways.

    So it might be quite difficult to shift Labour’s vote sivnificantly downwards…

  23. That looks like a good YouGov poll for Tories to me? Maybe I am missing something…

  24. richo

    The UK as a whole has become more liberal on social issues for years: that is the principal reason that the tory vote is in gradual decline.

    This is a society totally unlike the 70’s or 80’s

  25. Good enough for the sun to bring out early certainly

  26. ^ I think there is some decline in that I wonder if the Tories are demographically in decline. My grand parents were hardcore conservative voters, lovely people, never borrowed, law abiding, and I have to say distrustful of labour on the economy after a lot of experience watching them over the decades.
    Young people are now more liberal, and actually, poorer, as they have missed the golden two generations of property booms, pensions etc. just my take…

  27. PAULCROFT

    “This is a society totally unlike the 70?s or 80?s”

    Maybe a tad overstated?

    Yes there have been significant changes across the world over the last 30 years, but there were also significant changes in most places at any time, compared with the situation 30 years earlier.

  28. You have to go back to November 2012 – after conference & before the Chancellor’s autumn speech – to see the Tories regularly getting 35’s.

    The EU speech has given the Tories at least a ‘conference’ bounce; it has stopped the Tory rot & Labour’s rise. A breathing space for Mr Cameron, I think.

  29. @Richo
    ‘ta left wing leader (ok not hard left, but further left than Blair).

    Ted Heath and Harold Macmillan were well to the left of Blair – it did not stop them winning elections!

  30. ^ on reflection, and after reading his book, is there an argument that Blair was actually centre right!

  31. RICHO

    As Senior Football Correspondemt I perhaps need to explain that its centre-FORWARD or OUTSIDE-right , though these terms are a bit old-fashioned now.

  32. There’s a small bounce, it seems. Easily lost in the general noise. The Conservatives seem to have pulled across a few leaners from Labour. If this is their trump card for winning an election, I doubt it will be enough on its own. Economic recovery will be needed too, and I can’t see that coming in time.

  33. @R Huckle

    “There is no bounce. 35% is just the upper end of Tory polling and 41% is average for Labour.”

    Given the last two polls have been 41 / 35, shouldn’t we wait to see what the new margin of error might be? That may be the norm, with 33-37 being the MoE. Equally, the Lab MoE could be 39-43.

    Or you could be right, but I favour waiting a little.

  34. Agree the Tories need some economic improvement too though. Will be interested to see what Carney does…

  35. @Amber

    “A breathing space for Mr Cameron, I think.”

    If so, only until the next big bad-news story.

    Could the narrowing (assuming it is a narrowing) be due to several factors, such as the referendum announcement, the Gay Marriage Bill, and even things such as HS2, and caution over Syria?

  36. @Statgeek

    “Could the narrowing (assuming it is a narrowing) be due to several factors, such as the referendum announcement, the Gay Marriage Bill, and even things such as HS2, and caution over Syria?”

    Tories are never going to gain much on Gay Marriage. Particularly when they have cabinet ministers like Philip Hammond comparing it to siblings getting married:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/28/philip-hammond-gay-marriage-incest

  37. Graham @ Richo

    “Ted Heath and Harold Macmillan were well to the left of Blair – it did not stop them winning elections!”

    At the time I was very disappointed in MacMillan, but I now see that, considering the drunks, fornicators, homosexuals (open to blackmail) incompetents, racists and part timers he had as a party, he did as well as could be expected.

    It has been downhill all the way since then.

  38. Interesting IMO that 4 out of the last 5 polls have put Labour on less than 40%. Will their average polling figure also drop below 40% in the next few weeks?

  39. I’d expect so. YG polls are currently giving them some of their best scores, and AW’s weighting system gives more prominence to the more occasional polls like ComRes.

    Certainly a drop in the “weighted average” to 40. Maybe 39.

    Not going to get excited about it. At least it had tided Cameron and Osborne over the awkwardness of the Q4 growth figures. They’d better hope to the Lord that Q1 of this year is a decent number though. “Triple Dip” would be a very bad headline….

  40. So far no bounce back over Q4 drop. But makes next quarter a nail biter…

  41. @carfrew – “They actually thought the lib dems more leftie than labour in a lot of ways.”

    Charles Kennedy’s opposition to the Iraq war probably had something to do with that. The proportion of Labour rebels (138) who voted against the invasion (“the case for war is not yet established”) was much higher than Tory rebels (15).

    On the other hand, after the election in 2001 Kennedy had reversed the Ashdown/Gang of Four policy of rapprochement with Labour. He began a project which aimed at LDs replacing Tories party as main opposition party to Labour… writing a foreword to the Orange Book was part of that project.

    The announcement that David Laws has been given control of the next LD manifesto will have given no encouragement to the “replace Labour as opposition to the Tories” faction.

  42. I’ve had a gut feeling for some time, and that’s all it is, that YouGov, for whatever methodological reasons, are overstating support for both Labour and the Tories and it’s interesting that most other polls, certainly the ones taken and published over the weekend, are now congealing around this 39/32/10/9 configuration.

    I wonder if that’s about where we are with Labour in the high 30s, Tories in low 30s and a 7-8% Labour lead. The last nationwide election held in May 2012 wasn’t a million miles away from these figures, although the Lib Dems were mid teens in those and UKIP much lower. Whatever, I certainly don’t see the two main parties hoovering up anywhere near 80% of the popular vote between them in 2015. It was 66% in 2010 and I’d be surprised if it’s much more than 70% in May 2015.

    This 76% in today’s YouGov looks a bit overstated to me.

  43. Plus Anti-austerity, anti-tuition fees. .. you can see why people fell for it. Even Boris is at it now.

    I mean, get a load of this…

    “Johnson said he would be shortly be publishing his seven-point vision for how the economy of London should look by 2020. “It is a manifesto for my friends at the Treasury who hold the purse strings,” he said.

    The mayor’s new economic adviser, Gerard Lyons, has been working on the proposals, which Johnson said involved:

    • Building hundreds of thousands of new homes

    • Investing in road and rail infrastructure, including Thames crossings and a second Crossrail

    • Boosting London’s growth industries such as financial services and the startups clustered in Tech City (the technology hub centred around Old Street)

    • Combating illiteracy and increasing the number of apprenticeships

    • Maintaining low and stable tax rates

    • Making London open to the rest of the world through a “sensible visa” policy and a new airport

    • Changing the language of the economic debate.”

    The language of the debate referring to his criticism of Osborne’s “hair shirt agenda” of course. ..

  44. @Amber Star

    Tend to agree with your post that there has been a small bounce for the Tories although i am still cautious. I was very interested in the detail though. As I posted last week I think the continuing improving employment figures, especially the rise in vacancies and full time jobs is having a positive effect for the Tories and the numbers in this latest survey seem to show that. I think GDP means little to most people.

  45. TOH

    I think you have a point.

    Jobs is what matters when it comes down to it.

    Just been reading an analysis of those Q4 numbers.

    If that weird NS oil factor is taken out & the base ( Q3) restated to exclude the OLympics effect, GDP probably grew 0.1%

    The feeling is Q1 will be positive.

    AW-could you get YouGov to change that -11 Approval number on their website. It’s making my pacemaker go funny. Thanks.

  46. Johnson’s manifesto seems OK but you realise the mental illness when he talks about financial services as a ‘growth industry’. In the real world that sort of business is leaving London as fast as it can.Where is Johnson going to get the money from for all this building? I wonder if in a previous life Johnson was involved with the Vistula Army

  47. Those who say Labour should be further ahead, and that Ed Miliband is holding back his party:

    Look at polling 2 years before 1979, and the ratings of Mrs T.

  48. Colin.
    “If that weird NS oil factor is taken out & the base ( Q3) restated to exclude the OLympics effect, GDP probably grew 0.1%”[1]

    How apt in a week when R4 are broadcasting Orwell’s works.

    “Contraction is growth.”

    I suppose it’s no less illogical than “expansionary fiscal contraction” that seduced so many, otherwise right-minded, people a couple of years back.

    On a serious note, we ARE seeing exactly what the Japanese experienced 10-20 years ago. The longer depressed economic performance continues, the lower expectations become and the lower the barrier is for what constitutes economic good news.

    Deeply, deeply depressing.

    [1] Alternatively, given your use ofcthe conditional, maybe there’s a Kipling reference here? “IF you can keep your head while all around are losing theirs and blaming the collapse of the economy on you…you probably haven’t grasped the gravity of the situation.”

  49. @Colin
    I suspect the early GDP figures tend to understate the actual performance and that later updates will show them in a slightly better light. Not always so of course as the 3rd quarter 1% has been downgraded to 0.9%.
    My point being that GDP dosn’t resonate very much with the public but numbers they can understand do. Obviously if we did go into triple dip there would be a lot of coverage and that would have an have some effect.

    Last weeks crime figures may also have had an effect, the Tory lead over Labour on crime jumped from 5 to 9.

    I thought the movements in the detail of the YouGov report this morning were very interesting.

  50. A UNS on this poll, still gives Labour an overall majority of 86.

    Food for thought for those in the Conservative party who think Europe is the be-all and end-all.

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