The post-speech polls

The first poll conducted after Cameron’s Europe speech, YouGov’s on Friday, didn’t appear to show any impact on voting intention. However, this weekend we have a further four polls conducted after the speech (the Opinium one was mostly done prior to the speech). Here they are:

Angus Reid/Sunday Express have the Conservatives on 30% (up three) and Labour on 39% (down three) – the online version of the article doesn’t mention the UKIP or Lib Dem scores. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday.

ComRes/IoS/Sunday Mirror has the Conservatives up 5 on 33%, Labour unchanged on 39%, UKIP down 4 points on 10%. As I wrote yesterday, some of this appears to be due to ComRes treating likelihood to vote differently in their December poll, but even with consistent treatment of likelihood to vote the poll would have shown the Conservatives up 4 or 5 points, though it would probably also have shown Labour down slightly.

Survation/Mail on Sunday has the Conservatives on 31%, up two, Labour unchanged on 38% and UKIP down two on 14%.

YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 7%. Compared to the average of YouGov’s polls last week that equates to the Conservatives being up by about two, Labour down by about two and UKIP down by about one.

In each individual poll the changes are relatively small, but they are consistent across the pollsters, so we can be fairly confident that the Conservatives have enjoyed a small boost from the referendum promise and the positive publicity around it. UKIP appear to have dropped slightly, but not massively (the biggest drop they had, that in the ComRes poll, was mostly due to methodological variation). The shift is hardly a game changing degree though.

Looking at the other questions, there is some stark variation in how people say they’d vote in an EU referendum. YouGov’s figures are very similar to what they were showing early in the week – in a straight referendum question 37% say they would vote to stay, 39% say they would vote to leave. If David Cameron were to renegotiate and recommend a yes vote then 50% of people say they would vote to stay, compared to 25% who would vote to leave – the contrast is almost entirely down to Conservative voters, who would currently vote to leave, but would vote to stay on renegotiated terms.

Angus Reid asked how people would vote if Cameron did manage to repatriate some powers, 34% said they would vote to stay in, 34% said they would vote to leave.

Survation found 50% saying Britain should leave the EU, 36% that they should stay. If Cameron wins back some powers, 43% of those saying Britain should leave say they would consider voting to stay.


408 Responses to “The post-speech polls”

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  1. NEW THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  2. So Cameron says he’ll have a referendum and (some) UKIP supporters go back to the Tory Party.

    That may be a crude analysis, but it does suggest that the argument that Europe doesn’t matter that much to UKIP voters is exaggerated to say the least…

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  3. Crossbat11
    Your post of 8.57 which you attribute to Colin, was in fact my point of 5.14.
    I agree with the general point in your post, We put all our eggs in one basket, when we joined the EU. We used to trade with the world but for the last 40 years have majored on the small area of the EU, largely ignoring the rest of the world. That has now come back to haunt us and it’s hard work breaking back into the old markets. Jaguar Land Rover is doing a great effort.

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  4. CB11

    Thanks.

    In many ways I find Hollande a more attractive personality than Sarkozy.

    In any event, my interest is not in the fate of a particular French politician.-but in the fate of the French insistence of clinging to the “social model” which has piled up payroll cost & eroded competitiveness.

    THat a union leader could respond to a plant closure in a country with a 25% payroll cost disadvantage with Germany , it’s great neighbour , by demanding retirement at 55 is absolutely symptomatic.

    But I think there are signs that Hollande is in fact facing reality-as it has been faced in Ireland, Spain, Greece & Italy.

    THat is why I observe his policy response with so much interest.

    I also find it interesting that in Germany it was a Social Democrat who implemented the labour laws & social cost reforms which transformed his country from “the sick man of Europe” into the powerhouse economy of the continent.

    Of course Schroeder’s Agenda 2010 reforms of a decade ago were unpopular-and lost him the GE – handing power & a golden economic legacy to Angela Merkel.

    I wonder if Hollande & Cameron ever talk to Merkel about that-they both have lessons to draw from it.

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  5. SHEVII
    ” I am now in favour of protectionism although I would be happy if someone comes up with an alternative economic policy that avoids this.

    The idea that we can compete by making quality, hi-tech stuff is nonsense. it’s just that some markets haven’t yet been opened or some skills haven’t yet been transfered. Some things (like the City of London) are cultural and where people want to be based but even that will come under threat in the end.”

    There are a couple of logical fallacies here and more generally in this discussion. (a) China aren’t competing with specific EU or UK businesses or even economies, but are facilitating the competitiveness of their enterprises, so that if there is comparative advantage in using the City of London’s location, skills or prestige a Chinese bank or finance house will do so, and if their managers or their wives see advantages (language, style, access to expertise, future social and market associations) in having their sons and daughters or employees educated in UK universities, or get prestige, comfort or safety from buying high end UK cars, they will do so. Protectionism, especially at the EU level, would be a barrier to these advantages for the Chinese. In the global market for high end products, services and technology, the UK is a small enclave of luxury, tranquillity, access to a European market of ideas, finance, services, and recreation, with a reputation, resources and skills for service which is unparalleled. This may need competition with other European countries but not with the Far East, where, incidentally, we have entrepots of historing and enduring value which are the product of UK investments over centuries, in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and in Mumbai, to name but a few.

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  6. historic, even

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  7. and (b) the EU was not created to compete with the rest of the world but to trade and facilitate peaceful, stable, sustainable and profitable exchanges with each other and with other great trading and political systems.
    Any retrograde policy, towards protectionism and induced low wage and high unemployment economies, is a path to conflict and to poverty.

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  8. NEW THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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