The post-speech polls

The first poll conducted after Cameron’s Europe speech, YouGov’s on Friday, didn’t appear to show any impact on voting intention. However, this weekend we have a further four polls conducted after the speech (the Opinium one was mostly done prior to the speech). Here they are:

Angus Reid/Sunday Express have the Conservatives on 30% (up three) and Labour on 39% (down three) – the online version of the article doesn’t mention the UKIP or Lib Dem scores. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday.

ComRes/IoS/Sunday Mirror has the Conservatives up 5 on 33%, Labour unchanged on 39%, UKIP down 4 points on 10%. As I wrote yesterday, some of this appears to be due to ComRes treating likelihood to vote differently in their December poll, but even with consistent treatment of likelihood to vote the poll would have shown the Conservatives up 4 or 5 points, though it would probably also have shown Labour down slightly.

Survation/Mail on Sunday has the Conservatives on 31%, up two, Labour unchanged on 38% and UKIP down two on 14%.

YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 7%. Compared to the average of YouGov’s polls last week that equates to the Conservatives being up by about two, Labour down by about two and UKIP down by about one.

In each individual poll the changes are relatively small, but they are consistent across the pollsters, so we can be fairly confident that the Conservatives have enjoyed a small boost from the referendum promise and the positive publicity around it. UKIP appear to have dropped slightly, but not massively (the biggest drop they had, that in the ComRes poll, was mostly due to methodological variation). The shift is hardly a game changing degree though.

Looking at the other questions, there is some stark variation in how people say they’d vote in an EU referendum. YouGov’s figures are very similar to what they were showing early in the week – in a straight referendum question 37% say they would vote to stay, 39% say they would vote to leave. If David Cameron were to renegotiate and recommend a yes vote then 50% of people say they would vote to stay, compared to 25% who would vote to leave – the contrast is almost entirely down to Conservative voters, who would currently vote to leave, but would vote to stay on renegotiated terms.

Angus Reid asked how people would vote if Cameron did manage to repatriate some powers, 34% said they would vote to stay in, 34% said they would vote to leave.

Survation found 50% saying Britain should leave the EU, 36% that they should stay. If Cameron wins back some powers, 43% of those saying Britain should leave say they would consider voting to stay.


408 Responses to “The post-speech polls”

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  1. Alec

    “Metaphor Monitor”

    Is that a metaphor?

    Colin Wilson [The Outsider author] used to drive me mad with analogies. Absolutely EVERYTHING was like something else until I wanted to scream:

    “I understood you in the first place, please SHUT-UP”

  2. @ Paul Croft

    Who made you football monitor? Obviously my CV of 40 games a season for the last 40 years and the only one to correctly predict that Wigan will take whatever points are necessary on the final day of the season to stay up and send Villa down has been overlooked :-) Once that prediction comes true (not rocket science!) then maybe people will start asking me who will win the next general election :-)

  3. Colin Wilson!

    The Space Vampires, Ritual In The Dark, The Occult, Mysteries and The Sex Diaries of Gerald Sorme.

    Read a load of his many years ago…everything he had written at the time, I think. The Brandy of the Damned. The World of Violence.

    What else? I’ll have to google.

  4. shevII

    Its Football Correspondent actually and that post is in the gift of The Senior New-Thread Monitor [moi].

    You can cover the Conference matches if you like tho’.

  5. Croftie
    An analogy is not the same as a metaphor. We will watch to see that Alec does not stray. And I claim the position of hyperbole monitor as of right

    @Amber.
    China has been acquiring vast tracts of land in several continents, heavily for example in Laos and Cambodia for rubber and cassava (pig feed or bio-fuel, sometimes taking land previous used for food production), so is consciously, IMO, staying ahead of any western strategy to maintain equality in consumption costs which govern the price of labour. Watch out for its monopolistic acquisition of the vast areas potentially available for food production in Central and Southern Sudan. A Cameron/Merkel strategy of high unemployment and intra-EU labour migration, may therefore emerge to be one of providing the instruments for the steady loss to the EU of world processed and manufactured products as labour cost differentials bite.
    A policy of market retention of high quality goods with a IP value added would both demand and benefit from high employment,, high level wage labour and design skills and r & d, increased investment in the retention of young manpower in formal education, and pre-distributional skills training and apprenticeships/internships.

  6. @Shevvi

    “…………and send Villa down…… ”

    That’s it for me, Anthony, I’ve taken as much provocation as any reasonable man can stand and I will no longer contribute to your wonderful website.

    I’d just like to wish everyone I’ve corresponded with over the years, particularly Roland Haines and Mad Max, all the best and I’ll miss you all.

    Goodbye.

  7. Trolls and flouncing!

    That’s more like it. This is the internet after all.

    More sock puppets, please. And more drama.

  8. Nickp

    Yeah and chuck croftie off the site for being an arsenil supporter

  9. I think we should blackball AW for being a Tory.

  10. @ Crossbath

    Where’s that smiley button gone :-)

    @ Nickp

    I have to give credit to AW- it was only after about a year that I discovered in some constituency thread moaning about something that he was a Tory! Probably the only one on here who abides by the rules!

  11. My favourite football quote is Jonathan Watson on Scottish Football;

    “Narrow mindedness and petty bigotry… where would our game be without it!”

    Peter.

  12. @John Pilgrim – “An analogy is not the same as a metaphor.”

    You are quite correct. A metaphor is an expression that describes something by identifying a similarity with another otherwise unrelated object or subject.

    An analogy is where the doctor sticks something up your bum.

    Oh hang on….

  13. Isn’t a metaphor a Norse god with a bulls head!

    Peter

  14. @Alec

    “An analogy is where the doctor sticks something up your bum.”

    Purely for the purpose of diagnosis, I presume. If not, I think you should change your doctor.

  15. CB11

    You were back bleedin’ quick. Please note that no-one asked you.

    JP:

    “A nalogy is not the same as a metaphor”

    Listen mate, I didn’t get Eng Lit and Eng Lang at Grammer skool for nuffink.

    ALL:

    Am working on a policy of jobs-for-all for this site. It seems unfair that they are all going to clever people like me.

  16. On second thoughts no it doesn’t.

  17. NEW THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. False alarm………………………………..

    As Senior New-Thread Monitor I have decided to run occasional drills – like fire-alarms.

    As you were.

  19. @CrossBat1,

    ““…………and send Villa down…… ”

    That’s it for me, Anthony, I’ve taken as much provocation as any reasonable man can stand and I will no longer contribute to your wonderful website.

    I’d just like to wish everyone I’ve corresponded with over the years, particularly Roland Haines and Mad Max, all the best and I’ll miss you all.

    Goodbye.”

    Come on, harden up ol’ boy! After all, you must be used to provocation, being a Villa supporter and all!….:P

    I have to say, as a Spurs fan, we have also been the but of many a footballing joke for far too long. I guess the Leeds defeat certainly doesn’t help in that regard.

  20. “SPURS…………………LEEDS DEFEAT”

    Gosh… even though I am Footy Correspondent I had amost forgotten. Must be awful if you support Spurs.

  21. John Pilgrim

    @”attempting to compete by means of low wages would be self-defeating.”

    Yes -most certainly it would if the low wages in question are those of Asian competitors. If you have to compete with their wage levels I guess you know that your product range is “mature” / low tech without many USPs -and you have lost the ability to compete-go find something else.

    @”Rather we should be competing on design and quality, including the Burberry and Louis Vuiten or Land Rover effect,”

    Agreed -though I am ambivalent about luxury handbags. One of the problems identified in a recent analysis I posted here ( Tullet Prebon ) is the transition of western economies towards services & luxury consumables.
    I believe France is facing this right now-the hoards of Chinese & Russian consumers chasing the next up market fashion item could melt away in the snow , and do not compare with a lack of internationally competitive manufacture of-say- automobiles. If Peugot shed those 8000 workers , an awful lot of handbags & luggage will be needed to compensate.

    WE are indeed fortunate that our auto sector is in such good shape-foreign owners & management skills perhaps ?

    @” Cameron/Merkel axis based on enforcing low waqes and high employment in European manufacturing.”

    Eh?

    Not aware that they are.

  22. @Paul Croft,

    “Gosh… even though I am Footy Correspondent I had amost forgotten. Must be awful if you support Spurs.”

    It was….still is…though the pain did subside slightly, I must admit, when I found out that we would have faced City at the Etihad!

    They defended dreadfully though. What the heck were Naughton and Caulker doing???

  23. @Crosbat1

    There’s always someone in a worse situation than yourself.

    You’re just upset about your football team. I’ve got Mike Ashley to thank for destroying my football team and Nick Clegg to thank for destroying my party.

    Tomorrow night is going to be disaster for one of us (or even both if it is a draw). :)

  24. @ Peter bell

    It’s expensive being a Newcastle fan because every season by about October there’s something that makes you have to burn your season ticket and then a week later you have to go out and buy another one :-)

  25. Colin
    re; France

    “There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” said Mr Sapin, who is tipped as a future Prime Minister, in a radio interview. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.”

    M. Sapin is the Labour Minister in M. Hollande’s government.

    Realism arrives, even in France

    It isn’t that wages are low in France, it’s the cost’s on business and of employment in particular, that are the problem.
    Unemployment well above the UK, more to come. Peugeot/Citroen just the start. They (& Renault) have only survived this far because the French are very loyal car buyers. Around 80% buy French models.
    Bet they wish they had a manufacturer as successful as Land Rover :)

  26. @SHEVII

    “It’s expensive being a Newcastle fan because every season by about October there’s something that makes you have to burn your season ticket and then a week later you have to go out and buy another one :-)”

    Not for me it isn’t as I refuse to put one penny in Ashley’s pocket. I haven’t attended a match since the Keegan debacle and refuse to enter one of his shops. I only wish more would follow suit

  27. A Chinese official asks

    “If everyone is doing super QE, which currency will depreciate?”

  28. Alec
    Moreover, if your doctor says that he is going to put an analogy up your bum, and “this may sting a little” or some such, make sure he did not say “analogue”; defined in Webster’s Dictionary as:
    “an organ or part similar in function to an organ or part of another animal or plant but different in structure and origin”

  29. ROBERT NEWARK

    Thanks

    @”t isn’t that wages are low in France, it’s the cost’s on business and of employment in particular, that are the problem.”

    Yes-I posted an analysis the other day-they are 20% ish uncompetitive with German payroll costs.

    Their unemployment is up around 11% now-and has been rising for 19 months consecutively.

  30. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCYI0IxgzAY
    Taiwan reports on the David Cameron leadership challenge..
    While you’re waiting for the next YouGov.

  31. @Colin
    Sorry, my mistyping, should have been low wages and high unemploynent; and in my post to Amber I referred to high intra-EU labour migration and low wages. No, not part of the Cameron/Merkel mindset, if not axis?

    BTW: Burberry company data from the FT:

    Capital Revenue in GBP Number of employees
    1.91bn 231.90m 7.99k
    Comparison with Renault?

    My enquiry was to do with how you factor rhe absence of value added in consumer goods in Asian low wages, and how do you devise a strategy to maintain high or moderate wages and high or moderate employment figures in a competitive UK or EU economy; you answered in respect of moving out of markets where you could not compete, but I think there may still be research to do on moving into high consumer and high tech areas where design and other value added factors make you competitive, and where you can maintain that by skills development, r&d and intellectual property protection in foreign consumer markets.

  32. Colin,
    It’s not just the headline unemployment figures you have to watch but other things –
    For example, our headline unemployment rate in June was 8.1% but the ILO figure was 7.9%.
    Since you have to compare apples with apples, France’s ILO unemployment rate was 10.4% in September, 7.8% for us (the latest ILO figure for us).
    France’s ILO figure was 9.9% in January, ours 8.2%.
    So rising vs falling.

    Also, you have to take in to account total hours worked – which is possibly a better indicator of economic activity than GDP (I’m sure I’ll get crucified for saying so) – our latest hours worked is Q3 2012, at 945.3 million hours, up 2.6% Y/Y – unfortunately I can’t find the same for France.

  33. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”No, not part of the Cameron/Merkel mindset, if not axis?”

    Thanks for the correction. I had certainly seen no evidence for your statement.

    RE Burberry-why are you comparing it with Renault?

    Renault is French.

    A UK auto sector comparison of a similarly successful company to Burberry might be Jaguar Land Rover-they employ 24 k people.

    Burberry issued a warning on current sales revenues
    this month.

    JLR recently announced 800 additional jobs in Solihull.

    I agree with you about design & quality orientated businesses in response to loss of competitiveness in maturing / low tech sectors.

  34. TINGED

    Thanks

    not entirely sure about the point you are making………..but with all our problems , would not want DC to swap economies with Hollande.

  35. Whenever I hear about the West’s competitive advantage in high tech products/skills, I always think about that programmer from Apple (I think it was Apple) who was being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for his “highly skilled, highly expert” job and was getting a Chinese sub-contractor to do it for him for 1/6th of his salary while he wiled away his time on social networking sites.

    What if, once we’ve divested ourselves of all of our low-tech, low-wage jobs we discover that actually the Chinese and Indians can do all of our high-tech, high-wage jobs better and cheaper than us too.

    There seems to me quite a lot of cultural smugness about our superiority in “quality” which may not be justified in the long run. I think Cam and Merk are right that we have to be competitive across the board and I don’t think the socialist Utopia of “good jobs and fair wages for all” is achievable in the global world of today. I wish it were.

  36. French striking autoworkers are disrupting production at a key Peugeot Citroen plant Aulnay-sous-Bois , protesting layoffs linked to its pending closure.

    Jean-Pierre Mercier of the union CGT said they want new jobs that would include early retirement at 55 and permanent contracts for all workers.

  37. @ Neil A

    I believe the worker you refer is being, or is to be, prosecuted &/or sued by his employer. His job involved access to confidential information which he gave to the people he was ‘outsourcing’ to so that they could do the work. The fool (who some naïve people think was smart) could’ve sold the information to the firm’s competitors directly for a great deal more money than his scam earned him.

    Many worker’s are paid a premium, as he was, because of the expectation that they will adhere to professional standards + business ethics + confidentiality agreements. It’s not always about who will do the work for the least pay.

  38. Gary Gibbon has this:

    h
    ttp://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/boundary-decision-day-tomorrow/21942

    The latest thinking is that it probably will be the last throw for this parliament, and… “Sir George Young, is telling folk he doesn’t think he can win it.”

  39. I would have thought the ability to write code , features in the list of “things which have made Apple a global Tech Giant ” ; at about the same level as the ability to do chemistry features in a list of “things which have made Glaxo Smithkline a global Pharma. giant.”

  40. @ Billy Bob

    The latest thinking is that it probably will be the last throw for this parliament, and… “Sir George Young, is telling folk he doesn’t think he can win it.”
    ————-
    When whips start saying things like that, I assume it’s their poker face, they’re bluffing & opponents should be worried!

  41. @ Colin

    The programmer didn’t work for Apple, it was Verizon. And it’s about giving people access to your employer’s systems & programs. Once a skilled programmer has access, there’s a lot of things which they could do which are harmful & a lot of confidential information which they can access. The person who gave his access token & passwords to an unapproved programmer is, IMO, worse than a thief.

  42. @BILLY BOB

    Tomorrow will be interesting indeed…Not much news at all…It depends on whether all Tories vote with the whip(two have declared they would vote against) and whether nationalists and Lib Dems turn up in sufficient numbers

  43. The BBC seem to think it`s going to be hard for the government

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-21236061

  44. @Amber Star, SMukesh

    Gary Gibbon has been taking a keen interest in this for a while – he was certainly quicker than most to see how Tory opposition to Lords Reform had potential to jeopardize the reduction in MPs/boundary review – so I’m thinking he will be checking his facts on this.

    However, when a vote is close, just one or two slight mishaps or miscalculations will make for an unpredictable result.

  45. @ Neil A

    I agree 100% with your comment (part from the utopia bit at the end- it can be achieved by protectionism).

    There is a myth that China makes rubbish. They can actually make whatever they want to (not many would call the i-phone rubbish for example). Additionally the more they make the more design and technical skills they gain. Same goes for IT and virtually any other industry you could name. Just look at how Japan developed.

    In my humble opinion there is only one direction this is all going and even if China pulls themselves up to Western standards of living there are many more developing and 3rd world countries to take their place. I am now in favour of protectionism although I would be happy if someone comes up with an alternative economic policy that avoids this.

    The idea that we can compete by making quality, hi-tech stuff is nonsense. it’s just that some markets haven’t yet been opened or some skills haven’t yet been transfered. Some things (like the City of London) are cultural and where people want to be based but even that will come under threat in the end.

  46. AMBER

    Thanks.

    I was trying to respond to NeilA’s comment about “high tech jobs” following low tech jobs to Asia, in the context of western economies efforts to build design rich, high tech businesses.

    I think it a mistake-for example- to imagine that writing computer software is a key element in a global IT companies suite of competitive strengths.

    Writing code is just the nuts & bolts of a business which is built on the identification of customer needs, design of applications to meet them, and global branding & marketing of quality & reliability.

  47. @Colin

    “Peugeot/Citroen just the start. They (& Renault) have only survived this far because the French are very loyal car buyers. Around 80% buy French models.
    Bet they wish they had a manufacturer as successful as Land Rover :)”

    I’d go a little easy with the hubris if I was you. Any car manufacturer dependent largely on the European market, like Honda and GM in the UK, is suffering and Honda’s recent announcement of large scale job losses at their Swindon plant, and GM’s short time working at their Ellesmere Port plant (job losses to come, I fear), are all symptomatic of this malaise in Europe. Remember also that Ford is cutting back it’s volume car manufacturing capacity in Europe with plant closures and job losses imminent at their Southampton and Dagenham sites.

    Jaguar Land Rover has benefited enormously from the growth in the emerging markets of China, India, Russia and Brazil, all rapidly expanding economies with a thirst for luxury and niche brands. Peugeot and Renault, two volume car manufacturers, with the bulk of their sales in Europe, are suffering for reasons a little more complex and nuanced than President Hollande’s economic policies of barely six months longevity!

    Your zeal to bash Hollande is getting the better of you!

  48. @Shevii,

    The problem with protectionism for a country like the UK (low resources, high population, low self-sufficiency, trade-dependent) is that it cuts both ways.

    For me the long term solution is that the West is going to have to slowly equalize, by a process of economic osmosis, with the developing world.

    I see our current troubles not so much as a stumble on the great upward march to Nirvana, as the sputtering of an old engine that is running out of fuel.

    Whilst technological advances and social innovations may well keep our standard of living afloat in absolute terms, I think our relative wealth is in pretty much permanent decline starting now.

    Making ourselves more competitive, even if it involves low value jobs, is a way of flattening out the decline and readying our economy for its new position of relative weakness.

    That’s why I have issues with the left’s “borrow stacks of money now and pay it back during the next boom” approach to fiscal policy.

  49. @ Colin

    Sorry for not making the specific issue entirely clear nor correcting which company he worked for in my first comment.

  50. @ Neil A

    The problem with protectionism for a country like the UK (low resources, high population, low self-sufficiency, trade-dependent) is that it cuts both ways.
    ———————
    The protectionism is not going to be the UK on its own, unless we are thrawn enough to leave the EU.

    The EU/US trade deal may well be the beginning of a ‘protectionist’ strategy, IMO.

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