The post-speech polls

The first poll conducted after Cameron’s Europe speech, YouGov’s on Friday, didn’t appear to show any impact on voting intention. However, this weekend we have a further four polls conducted after the speech (the Opinium one was mostly done prior to the speech). Here they are:

Angus Reid/Sunday Express have the Conservatives on 30% (up three) and Labour on 39% (down three) – the online version of the article doesn’t mention the UKIP or Lib Dem scores. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday.

ComRes/IoS/Sunday Mirror has the Conservatives up 5 on 33%, Labour unchanged on 39%, UKIP down 4 points on 10%. As I wrote yesterday, some of this appears to be due to ComRes treating likelihood to vote differently in their December poll, but even with consistent treatment of likelihood to vote the poll would have shown the Conservatives up 4 or 5 points, though it would probably also have shown Labour down slightly.

Survation/Mail on Sunday has the Conservatives on 31%, up two, Labour unchanged on 38% and UKIP down two on 14%.

YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 7%. Compared to the average of YouGov’s polls last week that equates to the Conservatives being up by about two, Labour down by about two and UKIP down by about one.

In each individual poll the changes are relatively small, but they are consistent across the pollsters, so we can be fairly confident that the Conservatives have enjoyed a small boost from the referendum promise and the positive publicity around it. UKIP appear to have dropped slightly, but not massively (the biggest drop they had, that in the ComRes poll, was mostly due to methodological variation). The shift is hardly a game changing degree though.

Looking at the other questions, there is some stark variation in how people say they’d vote in an EU referendum. YouGov’s figures are very similar to what they were showing early in the week – in a straight referendum question 37% say they would vote to stay, 39% say they would vote to leave. If David Cameron were to renegotiate and recommend a yes vote then 50% of people say they would vote to stay, compared to 25% who would vote to leave – the contrast is almost entirely down to Conservative voters, who would currently vote to leave, but would vote to stay on renegotiated terms.

Angus Reid asked how people would vote if Cameron did manage to repatriate some powers, 34% said they would vote to stay in, 34% said they would vote to leave.

Survation found 50% saying Britain should leave the EU, 36% that they should stay. If Cameron wins back some powers, 43% of those saying Britain should leave say they would consider voting to stay.


408 Responses to “The post-speech polls”

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  1. “I think Anthony will be getting his naughty seat ready for a few people, looking at some of the above.”

    Yep, certainly looks that way.

    “FWIW, I think we should embrace multiculturalism by actually loving the mixture of people from so many different backgrounds. London is a better place for having people from all over the world.”

    Totally agree.

  2. DEVONIAN
    Thanks for your kindly intervention.
    Ambi
    “.for me, the unsung heroes are not just entrepreneurs or ‘wealth creators’ or managers but the people cleaning our streets and public toilets for such appalling wages. They should be accorded more respect within our society. Same goes with carers etc. I won’t hold my breath though.”
    ” everyone beyond the real tribalists….though, I expect even they are unhappy at some party political and policy .issues.”
    I read through your posts, and I agree, no insults there to complain about. There’s a tendency, though, for you to take a defensive posture on behalf of vulnerable people, which creates an opening for the denigration, often related to reportage rather than original statement, by people who have the guts to engage in active politics or public debate. They have often got into politics or public life, perhaps simply by affinity with a political position and strategy, perhaps to work for a Government which responds to their priorities and objectives, with very much your concern for the underdog. From personal experience of party and campaign organisation I assure you that there is almost no arrogance involved, or fixing by big interests, in the two main parties, and few people who are in it for their own interests. You can judge for yourself which of the parties has more representatives who are working for sectoral interests, or who make a packet out of public life. Going on and on about the hard-done-by might just be less effective than rationing the comment, and getting actively involved. I assure the latter is a learning and creative experience, and that grousers, bullies and spite-merchants don”t seem to survive the process. Tho’ they may be a bit feisty, like Amber.

  3. @Paul C

    CB11
    I hope this isn’t tasteless but who won that game?

    Not tasteless at all. Villa won 3-2 against the great Spurs team of that era that included legendary players like Greaves, Gilzean, Mullery, Mackay and Norman. My grandad (“Grump” we nicknamed him but it was ironic because he was the least grumpy man you could ever meet) used to stand in the old Witton Lane stand but because that was under reconstruction in preparation for the impending 1966 World Cup, he was temporarily moved to old terracing below the imposing old Trinity Road Stand. He died from a massive heart attack at half time with amazingly, considering the relative fortunes of the two sides back then, his beloved Villa winning 3-0. They hung on to win 3-2 as Spurs took over in the second half but, sadly, he never saw those last 45 minutes. Thankfully, and unusually, my older brother Mark who was 12 at the time, wasn’t with him on that fateful day, but the thought that he might well have been still haunts me occasionally now. It doesn’t bear thinking about that what trauma he might have suffered watching Grump, whom he idolised, collapse and die alongside him.

    It remains one of the saddest days in the life of our family, not least because he was relatively so young. A former policeman, apparently in rude health, taken away from us at the age of 65, not a great deal older than I am now. As time passed and we could reminisce less emotionally, we used to raise a smile at the thought that the last thing he saw on this earth was the rickety old Villa beating the Mighty Spurs 3-0. Knowing him as I did, although the memories are a little faded now through the fog of time, I can imagine how excited and happy he would have been in those moments. That’s our abiding and consoling thought about dear old Grump and God bless him.

  4. @John Pilgrim,

    “I read through your posts, and I agree, no insults there to complain about.”

    So you are now admitting that your assertion that I used ‘witless insults’ is now unfounded?? Thanks.

    As for party funding/interests, I said no such thing – as I’m sure you now know and will admit. MIM did. I just responded to his post by saying that I agree we need more smaller parties, and that I personally found the three large parties were embroiled in too much self and political party interests for my liking, as will always happen to some extent when parties have more power.

    “There’s a tendency, though, for you to take a defensive posture on behalf of vulnerable people”

    How is defending vulnerable people like immigrants and the disabled bad???? Are you annoyed with me because I disagreed with MIM on immigration??? And that I repeatedly disagreed him re: cyber bullying, and said regardless of someone’s opinion cyber bullying is wrong? I am confused.

  5. AMBER
    “a bit feisty, like Amber” I mean people who take an active part in party politics. God forfend that I should remotely suggest you have a nanogram or smigeon of spite or grousiness or bullying anywhere about you – tho as for the latter, I still cherish the image of a punk Amber teenager punching JSaville in the cigar (had the occasion arisen)!

  6. @ John Pilgrim

    That’s very kind of you :-) Thank you, it’s appreciated.

  7. Ambi
    Re the vulnerable, of course you should stand up for them, but politics has moved on since the Poor Law, and so have the many civic and political movements and institutions which address poverty and vulnerability, which I and very likely you and many others work in. I think, from your posts, you might shift the balance of assumption about those who don’t and don’t care; it’s at the heart of politics. On immigration, I have no doubt we see eye to eye. Cyber bullying, I know less about, but from what I’ve learned on this blog, find it both wrong and grossly silly.

  8. @John Pilgrim,

    So you retract your earlier statements about me? And you admit that your only contention is that I my focus in this debate was excessively on the vulnerable?

  9. It’s a new day – cant we leave the silliness of yesterday behind ?

    Please ?

  10. @Ambivalentsupporter – “So you retract your earlier statements about me? And you admit that your only contention is that I my focus in this debate was excessively on the vulnerable?”

    Sometimes it really is best just to move along.

  11. Ambi – be generous, John has admitted he made a mistake. Don’t demand your pound of flesh. Keep the moral forgiving high ground.

    Having breached my reluctance to contribute, I’ll add my twopennorth on racism and immigration. My family would tell you I’m a “Devonshire racist”. I’d like to build a high wall around Devon ( especially high on the side of those dastardly Cornish who try to steal credit for our pasties and cream teas) and keep out anyone who wasn’t born here. In my late seventies, I yearn more and more for the quiet rural Devon of my youth.

    Outside Devon, I have spent my life on the left of the Labour Party, opposing all restrictions on immigration and living in multi-cultural neighbourhoods and households. I am grateful for my “Devon racism” as it has helped me to recognise the hostility of elderly Londoners to immigration as often not really racism but a love and longing for the close and surprisingly stable and local London communities of their youth. MinM got one thing right. Anxiety as well as nostalgia can often present as and be mistaken for racism.

  12. Ambi
    Yes, yes, yes, for God’s sake man. And I’m tempted to say, and join the Salvation Army, but would not dream of doing so.
    And as the constables are prone to say “Now move along, there’s a good Gentleman”.
    Enough already.
    Take care.

  13. And with that, let us draw a very firm line under all of last night

  14. @Devonian,

    To be honest, I am past caring who is right, who is wrong, and who has made an acceptable apology or not. I am leaving this site now. After the ugliness and aggression on here (in all directions) after the last few days and months….I don’t think it’s worth staying. Life is too short, and there is just too much hatred and not nearly enough tolerance.

    P.S. I hope you are ok after yesterday, Amber. You are one of those members that I can honestly say I have always really liked. I wish you well.

    And as to John Pilgrim, I bear no grudges. I accept, like Devonian, that it is was just a misunderstanding.

  15. Alec

    “move along”

    Not my decision of course but I do hope Anthony decides that we move along without MinM.

    Otherwise my course will be to ignore all his future posts and hope others do the same – athough a very silly oung man referring to .Amber as “immature” did give some pleasure

  16. @John Pilgrim,

    “Yes, yes, yes, for God’s sake man. And I’m tempted to say, and join the Salvation Army, but would not dream of doing so.
    And as the constables are prone to say “Now move along, there’s a good Gentleman”.
    Enough already.
    Take care.”

    lol. Thanks. I apologise for persisting. You have proved that you are a good guy, as Devonian earlier said.

    Bye everyone.

  17. DEVONIAN
    May I sidle back in to share your memory of elderly relatives expressing their despair at the vanishing of their familiar streets, shops, pubs and faces. My Uncle Geoff, ex-RASC BAOR, would splutter over his mild and bitter, and protest at the increasing number of A-rabs taking over his favourite haunts in Kilburn, regardless of ethnic origin, but the only real racial enclave was the C……l Club, where my Dad and I would occasionally be invited to play snooker, and which became increasingly impenetrable as the years went by. When he died I donated the 400 quid remaining of his estate to buy a Ladies Annual Geoff Pilgrim Silver Rose Bowl, as an enduring tribute to some of his main interests.

  18. @ Ambi

    P.S. I hope you are ok after yesterday, Amber. You are one of those members that I can honestly say I have always really liked. I wish you well.
    —————–
    Thank you, I will miss you if you stop commenting. I wish you well too & hope you change your mind & ‘drop in’ from time to time.

  19. JP

    Haven’t heard a constable say that for a long time: are you from Victorian times?

  20. I’m looking forward to Tuesday morning’s yougov. What will we see?

  21. Anyone else think the wrong person is leaving UKPR? I for one can think of someone else I’d rather see leave, whether of their own accord or by act of AW…

  22. I think there’s quite a lot of difference between multiculturalism when it’s all interesting food and colourful costumes and when it’s poor hard-looking young men in a foreign country looking to survive. The latter is closer to the truth in the UK at the moment.

  23. @ Paul C

    Thank you! I actually wasn’t commenting on anybody’s mental health. I meant I wasn’t qualified to teach linguistics (language in context) & I was becoming frustrated with myself because I couldn’t seem to properly explain the difference between attacking policies v attacking a person’s appearance, intellect &/or personality. But you knew that’s what I meant – so thank you!

  24. Croftie
    Not quite, but definitely from a Victorian London family, so thought of that when Crossbat11 was bragging about catching the 11.20 from Charing Cross, and,, if he was lucky – I really hesitate to repeat the rest. The practice, if you wanted to be on the town till 3.00 a.m. as some declared, but more likely if you’ld had a tank-full by 10.30, was to go to the Turkish Baths in Germyn Street for a massage and sauna, and be tucked up for the night by the masseur in a vast towel on one of their leather benches, after a last cold beer.

  25. @ambivalent supporter

    I wrote to your earlier but from a new computer unrecognised by UKPR so my post has disappeared into the ether or the limbo of moderation.

    What I said then, was that I had been very moved by your posts about your friend, and I hoped very much that you achieved your dream or a similar result by other means.

    Things have moved on and you have decided to go. I am sad about this as although I have often not agreed with you they always made me think. I agree that life’s a bit short, but I do hope that from time to time you may relent and revisit this site and give us the benefit of your ability to come at things from an independent point of view.

  26. @AmbivalentSupporter

    Shame to lose any contributors to UKPR although I have to say that I don’t recognise the displays of “hatred” on here that you refer to, I have to say. Silliness sometimes, perhaps, and I plead guilty to the occasional display of irritability myself, but the debate is usually civil, reasoned and intelligent. And there should always be a place for some humour too, be it gentle leg-pulling or, my preferred type, irony and self deprecation. We may all need to be a little less thin-skinned and a bit more self aware at times, I think. Pomposity and intolerance is usually at the root of threads that go astray in the way that this one did last night.

    Just a final thought, and this may be an inter-generational thing, but I think the Facebook and Twitter age group rather like these constant, short and terse interchanges that go on…and on…..and on. I detected a little of that last night and it can get tedious with the discussion becoming really just an intemperate exchange between two people.

  27. Robin

    I certainly have my fingers crosses [well – not when I’m typing of course]

    Amber

    Yes, indeed. T’was all somewhat bizarre

    JP

    To a non-drinker that sounds ORFUL

    CB11

    Lovely [tho’ sad] story. Will reply with more mundane one of my own later, in which we didn’t win and I lived.

    Cheers all.

  28. Ambi – don’t leave! Against all my instincts, I left my safe lurking-place and dived in to save you and now you say you’re going anyway! In my lazy, non-participatory way (“a skiver”) I love this site. My first great sorrow about it was when Sue Marsh left after an unkind comment. She was the “mother hen” of the site, making sure no one was hurt and everyone felt valued, and has never been replaced. There are many wise and well-informed voices on here, but some have unique qualities – e.g. Colin with his willingness to admit his mistakes. You are apparently able to change your mind, not every day like Max of Kent, but in the light of your experience. That is unusual amongst us “tribalists” and therefore valuable. Please stay.

  29. @ Crossbat 11

    I detected a little of that last night and it can get tedious with the discussion becoming really just an intemperate exchange between two people.
    —————-
    I agree, you & Paul C arguing about football teams was a bit tedious. :-)

    Actually, I do apologise for rising to it. I feel very strongly about women contributing more in politics, the media & even on blogs etc. I did become quite frustrated (a word the actual meaning of which I am trying to reclaim from ‘schoolboys’ on the front benches!). ;-)

  30. Croftie
    You could have cocoa if you preferred.

  31. And I appreciated Colin’s efforts to calm me down with chat about Borgen & other TV shows. :-)

  32. Ambi

    I “left” recently because ole Anthony was moderating my posts when all I had written was “A bit muggy in Barney today.”

    Luckily [for everyone] one or two people [well, one to be fair] persuaded me to stay.

    The moral of the story is that I am now Senior New-Thread-Monitor as well as the site’s Footballing Correspondent and I am sure there are simillar [tho’ clearly not so high-profile] openings for you.

    I am also arranging for JP to sign an official disclaimer at his solicitor’s office in Victorian London so hope that all will be alright now.

  33. Crossbat11 & Paul C

    The football thing, that was an attempt at humour.

    I then read CB’s comment about his grandfather & Villa, which I found both eloquent & charming.

  34. So im not really understanding whats going on with this eu ref, is it govt policy? What is this review of powers that is taking place, will it just be the civil service that decides which powers need to be repatriated or will the consultation be wider. If business is consulted will unions be consulted as well, and of course vise versa? Or is it only the tory party that will be consulted? Is this reveiw going to politise the civil service? Im still anxious about the bluring of party politics with the business of govt, I would have felt more comfortable if this speech had been made at a party conference or by the party chairman at a non govt event.

    Of course I dont like the idea of waiting 5 years to have a ref, if we know we are going to have one then it should be as soon as possible, like spring of next year prehaps or this autumn. Certainly its not fair on the scots to wait so long because the wont know what kind of union they will be voting to stay part of, honesty requires an in/out vote before the independence vote

  35. COLIN
    I have tried to bring the problems of foreign aid and trade to bear on discussions of the economy in this blog a number of times, notably in respect of the idea of poverty reduction, as against the more ‘economic’ concept of distribution of production capacities and terms of trade as a basis of global economic, and thus demographic stability.
    Your last response to a discussion with Amber, concerned value added, which I had raised in two middle to long posts in the 23 Jan thread, I think, about the costs to and employment in our food industry, of post-harvest systems, simply not engaged in in much of developing and emergent economies. I wondered how you factor these costs, and relatred energy costs, into employment cost in manufacturing. (A study way back in 1976/7 by the International Environmental Institute had shown that we use seven times as much energy on processing, packaging and marketing food as we do on producing it.
    I argued, in effect, that the costs associated with food production in Chinese, SE Asian and Indian industrial economies, might be inaccessible to control in cost of labour, so that attempting to compete by means of low wages would be self-defeating. Rather we should be competing on design and quality, including the Burberry and Louis Vuiten or Land Rover effect, which i referred to a Veblen effect – perhaps in the sociological meaning of deriving from conspicuous consumption as a ‘necessary’ information factor in the management of our distributional systems. While this may sound academic, and far from orthodox economics, I do in fact think that it may spell defeat for a Cameron/Merkel axis based on enforcing low waqes and high employment in European manufacturing.

  36. @Everyone,

    Thanks everyone for your kind words.

    @Paul Croft, CrossBat1,

    Thanks for your kindness. I sincerely apologise that, on occasion, that I have allowed my stubbornness to escalate (probably my asperger’s syndrome at work!). For what it’s worth, it is my opinion that you are both decent blokes, and I am sure you will both continue to be valued assets to this site.

    @Devonian,

    Don’t worry, I will probably lurk around and contribute from time to time.

  37. Croftie
    “I am also arranging for JP to sign an official disclaimer at his solicitor’s office in Victorian London so hope that all will be alright now.’
    Actually it’s a Commissioner of Oaths, so that, if, for example, there are trolls about, we charge a small fee, in guineas, to declare “A murrain on ye, ye varlets” or similar. (They are on vellum rolls, in cylinders bound in black leather, and require only the payment of a small royalty for continued use over a period of years, or threads,, armorial bearings extra).

  38. John Pilgrim

    I think the more salient point is that low wage economies are only possible with either high unemployment rates or completely open borders to economic migrants. In the absence of either of these two conditions market forces will inevitably level out wage differentials. When dc and merkle argue for more competitive wages what they are really arguing for is permanent high unemployment or continual mass immigration

  39. @CrossBat1,

    “Just a final thought, and this may be an inter-generational thing, but I think the Facebook and Twitter age group rather like these constant, short and terse interchanges that go on…and on…..and on. I detected a little of that last night and it can get tedious with the discussion becoming really just an intemperate exchange between two people.”

    One of my personal weaknesses is that I find it hard to let things go…call it stubbornness or hyperactivity (I have a tendency to walk around a lot (hyperactivity), and focus on one topic in conversation, much to the annoyance of those around me!). That’s why I often post on the same topic repeatedly (and at length). It’s also why I am very stubborn. Like I said, it’s probably my asperger’s syndrome and dyspraxia at work!

    But that is not an excuse. I accept it must be annoying for others to witness. I will try to space out my posts out in future.

  40. @RIN

    A very good point – why should we trust the Conservative party to negotiate a new settlement only to be told that we can have their definition of the EU or none at all? For this to have any merit it needs to be a cross party renegotiation or we are back to the concept of a “Europe for the Bosses”.

  41. @Ambi – “But that is not an excuse. I accept it must be annoying for others to witness. I will try to space out my posts out in future.”

    Try a couple of meaty spliffs before you post.

    Certainly keeps my posts spaced out.

  42. @Alec,

    “Try a couple of meaty spliffs before you post.

    Certainly keeps my posts spaced out.”

    lol. Nice idea.

  43. It’s been a bit like watching a raging flash flood last night. All the surging power and the damage, and then surveying the wreckage left this morning. We then moved to the brief period of tearful distress, before everyone rallies round to clear up the mess and get on with life.

    It’s reaffirming, in it’s own kind of way.

    If @Paulcroft is the Senior New Thread Monitor, can I be the Metaphor Monitor?

  44. Alec

    I have always thought your posts were quite trippy, now I know why

  45. @Paul Croft,

    “The moral of the story is that I am now Senior New-Thread-Monitor as well as the site’s Footballing Correspondent and I am sure there are simillar [tho’ clearly not so high-profile] openings for you.”

    Letting an Arsenal fan be the Footballing Correspondent….surely not! :P

  46. Not posted on this site for a while. Took a long time to realise that the fatuously named emoticons have gone, except for a few rather forlorn :)s. My brave, lifelong campaign agin ’em — Death to the Yellow Peril — has finally borne fruit.

    There are an awful lot of posts about insults, counter-insults etc. From the outside the site looks like a cyber version of the school playground. I admit to moments of tribalism myself and have thrown plenty of bricks at various deserving characters & got plenty back: so what.
    As for monitors – note the playground terminology – I shall adopt the apostrophe portfolio. This morning’s lesson: MPs does NOT have one.
    I think that’s enough pomposity for one day.

  47. I am not a member of any Political Party. I live in a very strong traditional Tory Area and I socialise with a number of Tory/Former Tory Supporters.
    I listen to their arguements in the Local Pub and the PM’s Speech seems to have made them even more determined to swith their support from Tory to UKIP. This is not a very scientific guide but how hard is the UKIP/Tory Vote?

  48. On substantive points. I think DC’s hope that the Euro Ref will placate the Tory right will fail. One thing we have learned since the mid-1980s is that the problems posed for the Tory Right by EU membership are insoluble.
    I think the economic strategy is failing: the economists who supported it are jumping ship: power without responsibility is their watchword. In the [good?] old days Chancellors who failed were sacked. But the “G Brown Model” has made them co-equal with the PM and hence v. difficult to remove. Economic policy becomes too wrapped up with their identities and careers.
    The division of the economy: into “public”, “private”, “export”, “financial”, sectors is analytically convenient but not helpful at the moment. Cuts in the “public” are crushing elements of the “private”: “exports” are unsurprisingly sluggish & the inert “financial” sector is not promoting the necessary “rebalancing”: its excessive caution is holding back the recovery of the “housing/construction” sector, for which abundant anecdotal evidence exists in Manchester

  49. Blimey I thought that was a a post from “INDEPENDENTCHRIST” for a moment!

    Anyway, to answer your scientific query, I would find it VERY hard to vote UKIP/Tory.

  50. @ John Pilgrim

    I actually think that Colin ‘gets’ our points about the cost of labour being linked to the cost of living – & I do not seek to put words in his mouth which he has not said – but if you & I are correct about it (& consequently about Veblen goods & high value added services) then why are so many high profile politicians lining up against our seemingly rational points?!

    The reason being: Mrs Merkel does not like the QE solution to the issue. But if China is printing money to maintain international competitiveness, then the US, EZ, Japan, Canada & UK will be forced to do likewise.

    Furthermore, if China will buy only land, infrastructure & shares of technology owning corporates (capital) instead of levelling the balance of trade by purchasing goods & services then protectionist measures by West world governments will be inevitable.

    Thus, centrist & right-leaning politicians who value trade above stability, fear being deposed by left-leaning politicians who value democracy & social stability above trade.

    I offer the following for consideration: The US is still the most powerful economic & military ‘machine’. President Obama was [? mis-]characterized as a European-style Socialist during the recent election campaign. He won.

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