Polls tonight

Tonight we are due at least three polls – the monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday & Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. I believe there may also be a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday plus, of course, any ad hoc polls that newspapers have commissioned on the back of the referendum announcement in the week. We had our first poll conducted entirely after Cameron’s referendum announcement yesterday, and that didn’t show any obvious impact… but as ever, that was only one poll. We’ll have a much better idea tonight. I’ll update as the polls come in.

UPDATE: ComRes’s monthly online poll has topline figures of CON 33%(+5), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 10%(-4). Changes are from their last online poll in December. There is also an improvement in David Cameron’s own figures – 32% agreed with the statement that he was turning out to be a good Prime Minister (up 5 from a month ago), 46% disagreed (down 6).

UPDATE2: The ComRes tables are now up here. Regular readers may remember that last month ComRes changed their methodology so that when they weighted by likelihood to vote, they treated the minor parties the same as all the other parties (previously they only included BNP, Green and UKIP voters if they said they were 10/10 certain to vote, but included Tory, Lab and LD voters who were 5+/10 likely to vote, weighted proportionally). The effect was to give UKIP a hefty boost. Well, looking at this month’s tables it looks to me as if they’ve reversed the change, and gone back to only including UKIP voters who are 10/10 certain to vote. If that is the case, it would suggest a lot of the increase in UKIP’s support in ComRes’s poll last month, and their drop in support this month, is just switching methodology back and forth.

UPDATE3: By my rough, back-of-a-fag-packet reckoning, if ComRes had used the methodology they used last month they’d have shown topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 13% – so it would still have shown a Conservative increase, but UKIP would have suffered a smaller drop, with Labour also falling slightly.

UPDATE4: The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 14%(+2). Unlike the ComRes poll, which was done between Wednesday and Friday, so wholly after Cameron’s referendum speech, the Opinium poll was done between Tuesday and Thursday and, according to the Observer, most of the fieldwork was completed before news of the speech.

UPDATE5: According to Sky the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 14%(-2). The movement is in the direction of the Conservatives, but the changes are all well within the margin of error. The other poll due tonight is YouGov in the Sunday Times, but that often doesn’t surface till the morning. I’ve seen mention of an Angus Reid poll in the Sunday Express too, but no idea what that shows or if it even exists.


121 Responses to “Polls tonight”

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  1. @PaulCroft,

    I have a sense of humour, thanks. [Snip – AW]

  2. I would rather people didn’t accuse other commenters of bias either. Rather too often it is a case of mote and beam

  3. Ambi

    No: the ref was to PH comparing from NOVEMBER.

    But keep digging

  4. @Ambivalent Supporter

    “He was criticising AW’s decision to compare today’s poll with December’s.”

    I refer you, M’Lud, to my post of 10.52pm.

  5. @Paul Croft

    “No: the ref was to PH comparing from NOVEMBER.”

    You’re spot on.

  6. @PaulCroft,

    If you say so.

    You always do. Someone can’t possibly disagree with your worldview without getting told to shut up or suffer abuse. So you’ll excuse me if I take no lectures from you. Learn some manners first.

  7. CrossBat is the same – accusing me of bias just because I don’t openly declare my love of Labour and/or Miliband. So you’ll excuse me if I remain less civil to both of you…afterall, respect is earned. Treat others as you would like to be treated.

  8. Ambi

    Rightyho.

  9. John murphy

    You are a sick puppy, I really didn’t want the picture of call me Dave doing a striptease, whatever next, twirling on a pole. I’m off out to erase that image with large quantities of alcohol maybe two bottles of whisky will do the trick. It’s a case of kill or cure

  10. RiN

    It certainly put me off my cocoa

  11. Wouldn’t it have been better tactics to do the EU speech on the day of the GDP figures?

  12. This is a bit sad, sitting here waiting for the YG figures to prove my widening gap prediction.

  13. “You are a sick puppy, I really didn’t want the picture of call me Dave doing a striptease, whatever next, twirling on a pole. ”

    The picture of Dave on the front page of the economist is amusing.

  14. @Anthony W

    Is it not a tad ‘unprofessional’ for comres to change their methodology seemingly every other poll?

  15. The lesson of QE is that there is no need for tax and spend, we can just print and spend. No problem!!

  16. @AmbivalentSupporter

    “………..afterall, respect is earned.”

    Quite so.

  17. @Crossbat11

    Contrary to your understanding, there are NO methodological “tweaks in the meantime” between the Jan Comres poll and that in November. It shows a 6% fall in the Labour lead. Alternatively, you can compare AW’s “fag packet” recalculation of the latest ComRes with the equivalent poll on their December methodology. Again a 6% fall (5% Lab lead now v 11% Dec).

    Having posted a set of numbers which basically confirmed the interpretation that AW was making, I chose to make no further comment. I fail to see what was “frankly silly” about my post?

    But since you choose to try and read into what the polls are telling us about the response to the referendum issue, I will now offer an opinion.

    1. There is a consistent drop in this ComRes poll with its two immediate predecessors. It is also the lowest Labour lead we’ve seen from them for some time, on a consistent methodology. So this is undoubtably a very poor poll for Labour by recent ComRes standards. And, because it comes in the immediate aftermath of the EU speech, you can I think read something into that, if cautiously.

    2. The Observer commentary on the Opinium poll says that most, not some, of the fieldwork was conducted before the speech. Best ignore it then, in this context.

    3. The last YouGov poll was inconclusive. Look into the tables and you will see that 2010 Conservative voters were somewhat underrepresented in the sample, so don’t read too much into that 10% Lab lead. A figure that rang alarm bells for me was that the % of 2010 Labour voters who were willing still to commit to Labour had fallen to 85%. That figure is normally very stable. It had been at 91% or above in every previous YouGov poll in January.

    That is as much polling evidence as we have and interpreting the next YouGov poll is going to be difficult, because of the possible impact of the dire economic news on Friday.

  18. Paulcroft – go to bed, YouGov/Sunday Times doesn’t normally show up till the morning!

  19. @AW

    I doubt you are going to reply to my question. It is a bit rude.

  20. @Anthony

    Just a thought on the timing of the release of these YouGov polls at the weekend. Assuming they are published in the Sunday Times, don’t Sunday newspapers go to print at about 9.00pm on Saturday, or am I some old fogey who remembers the days when I used to stagger home via New Street station in Brum at 11.00pm on a Saturday and buy a Sunday paper?

    By the way, the second question is a rhetorical one and I only need the first answered!

  21. @ Phil Haines,

    It is difficult to assign the movement in a poll from November just to the EU speech, though. I don’t think any ComRes poll tells us much. They’ve messed around too much!

    I found your analysis of the YG 2010 vote, from Thursday’s poll (released on Friday), much more interesting.

  22. Crossbat – in the days when I used to stagger home drunkenly on Saturday nights you used to be able to get them at around 10 o’clock outside Charing Cross station. I’ve no idea if you still can!

  23. What kind of people stagger home at 10 or 11 o’clock, 3am I can understand

  24. Anthony:

    I’m IN bed.

    G’night.

  25. So far the range of polls is so variable that the only conclusion I can draw is that there’s no overall message and therefore no particular effect in any direction from the referendum announcement.

    I suspect this slight surprise is because of the slow motion way in which it was made, combined with fairly well rehearsed views on all sides and a large element of distrust of DC’s intentions from the europhobes.

  26. @Anthony,

    “What kind of people stagger home at 10 or 11 o’clock, 3am I can understand.”

    I’m more of a 3am person. Except I am now getting to the age (30) where hangovers are getting a bit longer and more severe. S

    Night. Tomorrow’s Yougov poll should reveal if there has (likely) been any movement.

  27. @Phil Haines

    I think thou may protest too much. I suspect you worked your way through the entrails of the last YouGov poll in desperate search of some evidence to support your proposition that Labour would take a hit following Cameron’s speech and Miliband’s decision to rule out an In/Out Referendum. The Friday YouGov poll was the best measure we have had so far, conducted as it was in the immediate aftermath of the speech and, because of their daily frequency, it has offered the best “before and after” comparison. You make some interesting, albeit arcane, observations about 2010 voters in the poll, but the evidence presented by the VIs in the poll supported the view that nothing significant was going on in terms of opinion movement. Today’s Survaton, Opinium and ComRes polls are inconclusive but, in general, they support the “steady as she goes” argument.

    That’s all I’m really saying. There’s a bit of twitching going on, some within MOE, and some methodology ambiguity involved too, but it really is stretching things to the point of wishful thinking to argue that what occurred last Wednesday has changed the political weather.

    I must admit that your disclaimer in advance about tomorrow’s YouGov poll amused me!

  28. @ John Murphy

    “more conditional than a subjunctive clause employing the conditional tense as an illustration of the passive tense”

    I fear that the subjunctive, let alone the conconditional subjunctive, is now a foreign land to all except classically-educated males on the wrong side of 50. And, following our demise, will be as dead as Etruscan.

    Would that it were not so.

  29. @Phil

    A couple of things about the last YouGov:

    No shortage of Tories in the 18-24 sample… but Labour on 47% in Scotland. Then again, if the SNP fail to win independence they’re hardly the party to stop Cameron taking the EU out of Europe.

  30. Or even the UK.

  31. @Neil A,

    Yeah, I think the big problem for Cameron and the Tories is that a lot of people don’t trust him enough to believe that an EU referendum will/would actually happen before 2018.

  32. Phil

    I feel confident that your reply to Crossbat11 will now have proved to Ambi that CB was, indeedy, referring to your post in the first place and not to Anthony’s thread.

    Whilst the context clearly showed that to be the case anyway, I am sure that, having now had it confirmed by both of you, Ambi wil be in touch shortly to apologise for abusing me when I was in the right, and thus spoiling my second cup of cocoa.

  33. @/Richard in Norway

    “What kind of people stagger home at 10 or 11 o’clock, 3am I can understand”

    Now, I can’t speak for Anthony here, but don’t read too much into me buying a paper at 11.00pm on my way home as an accurate guide to the time when I eventually reached my destination. There was many a watering hole and, if I was very lucky, young lady’s house on the way from New Street back to my house!

    11.00pm? The night was yet but young!!

  34. @PaulCroft,

    I’m still waiting for your previous apologies for past abuses. Like I said, respect is earned. You reap what you sow in this life.

    I’m prepared to just forget you exist, you are more than welcome to do the same to me. The world would work better that way me thinks! Life is too short. I like my life too much.

  35. I don’t believe the UKIP figures…no way are they actually that high. Be lucky to get 5pc other than in a Euro election. The Lib Dems will still get around 15pc…Mark my words

  36. Anyway, off to bed now. More fascinating poll watching to come in the next few weeks….will the Tories close Labour’s lead to single figures (on average), or will Labour’s lead hold firm? I guess only time will tell. The first few polls seem to suggest that IF the Tories have seen an increase, it is only very slight….certainly nothing too significant.

    All in all, this makes for a very interesting 2013!

  37. Ambi

    Now that is just gratuitously rude.

    Still, Arsenal won today so I don’t care.

    [You were wrong though!]

  38. @Paul Croft,

    Yeah, well, you more than deserve it.

    Arsenal may have won, but my team (Spurs) are ahead of them in the league! :P

    Anyway, nighty night. Like I said, to keep this forum civil don’t post anything at/to me anymore.

  39. Ambi

    “don’t post anything at me anymore” [!!!!!!!!!!!!!]

    Don’t really think you’re in a position to dictate to whom I post are you?

  40. @PaulC,

    So you like/enjoy the open incivility? Above all else, a lot of posters on here don’t want the forum to become uncivil. So in the interests of other users, would you not agree that we should both just agree to move on?

  41. BILLY BOB

    ” if the SNP fail to win independence they’re hardly the party to stop Cameron taking the [UK] out of Europe.”

    If Yes Scotland does succeed, then the SNP certainly won’t be that party!

    If it doesn’t then (other than in a remarkably close vote) Scots votes won’t affect the issue anyway.

  42. Anthony how much longer do we have to put up with Partisan Paul?

  43. The Rawnsley article covers at length what I said briefly yesterday: it is highly likely that DC will not be PM after 2015 – maybe even earlier – and, bizarrelly – many in his party will then say it was because he wasn’t extreme enough about Europe.

    This is a longer running saga that those dreadful “Deathwish” films with Charles Bronson and its hard to believe that, in reality, they don’t all know it.

  44. @PaulCroft,

    It is pretty likely that DC won’t be PM after 2015. But I bet you £20 he will still be PM up to and during 2015.

  45. Oldnat

    I was wondering if the SNP had a view on this, it certainly knocks a hole in one of the unionists big arguments about Scotland finding itself outside of the EU. But are the SNP ready to run with it, has Alex asked to B’s part of Yvette renegoiation team to ensure that Scottish interests are represented, only half lol

  46. Neil A

    I agree: simply said “maybe even earlier” because a lot could still happen between now and then. Balance of probablity is certainly against though.

    PP/SNTM

  47. I agree, Neil A.

    I’ve said all along that a hung parliament is the most likely scenario IMO with Labour being the largest party (probably forming a Lib-Lab coalition). But if one party does achieve a majority, a Labour majority is a lot more likely than a Tory one (for many reasons).

    But this coalition will almost certainly last until 2015.

  48. Death from drug-related violence in Mexico, in six years, is around 70.000. That is staggering.

  49. Paulcroft

    “Drug related violence ” or “money related violence “

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