Polls tonight

Tonight we are due at least three polls – the monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday & Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. I believe there may also be a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday plus, of course, any ad hoc polls that newspapers have commissioned on the back of the referendum announcement in the week. We had our first poll conducted entirely after Cameron’s referendum announcement yesterday, and that didn’t show any obvious impact… but as ever, that was only one poll. We’ll have a much better idea tonight. I’ll update as the polls come in.

UPDATE: ComRes’s monthly online poll has topline figures of CON 33%(+5), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 10%(-4). Changes are from their last online poll in December. There is also an improvement in David Cameron’s own figures – 32% agreed with the statement that he was turning out to be a good Prime Minister (up 5 from a month ago), 46% disagreed (down 6).

UPDATE2: The ComRes tables are now up here. Regular readers may remember that last month ComRes changed their methodology so that when they weighted by likelihood to vote, they treated the minor parties the same as all the other parties (previously they only included BNP, Green and UKIP voters if they said they were 10/10 certain to vote, but included Tory, Lab and LD voters who were 5+/10 likely to vote, weighted proportionally). The effect was to give UKIP a hefty boost. Well, looking at this month’s tables it looks to me as if they’ve reversed the change, and gone back to only including UKIP voters who are 10/10 certain to vote. If that is the case, it would suggest a lot of the increase in UKIP’s support in ComRes’s poll last month, and their drop in support this month, is just switching methodology back and forth.

UPDATE3: By my rough, back-of-a-fag-packet reckoning, if ComRes had used the methodology they used last month they’d have shown topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 13% – so it would still have shown a Conservative increase, but UKIP would have suffered a smaller drop, with Labour also falling slightly.

UPDATE4: The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 14%(+2). Unlike the ComRes poll, which was done between Wednesday and Friday, so wholly after Cameron’s referendum speech, the Opinium poll was done between Tuesday and Thursday and, according to the Observer, most of the fieldwork was completed before news of the speech.

UPDATE5: According to Sky the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 14%(-2). The movement is in the direction of the Conservatives, but the changes are all well within the margin of error. The other poll due tonight is YouGov in the Sunday Times, but that often doesn’t surface till the morning. I’ve seen mention of an Angus Reid poll in the Sunday Express too, but no idea what that shows or if it even exists.


121 Responses to “Polls tonight”

1 2 3
  1. Prediction just for fun!

    No real difference. Perhaps a slight ‘jump’ of 2-3 for the Tories at best.

  2. I think the interesting thing will be to see the ‘spin’ each media outlet puts on its poll outcome.

  3. Amber Star/D.N.T.M

    Ta for standing in: I was playing a bittov Bach – and jolly well too.

    I predict a widening gap.

    Paul [S.N.T.M]

  4. Europe only really matters to the UKIP fringe of the Conservative party.

    So the referendum will make scant difference to the polls.

    However, I would expect to see a small (perhaps 3% or so) short term lift for them – on the strength of Cameron putting in a “robust” performance and getting good headlines.

    And, in any case, probably already fading on (the much more important) economic news of the last few days.

  5. Leaving the EU will mean workers will have less rights and I think this fact will become more aparent the closer we get to the Election.

  6. Fifth!

    rgdsm

  7. martyn

    that’s not even nearly a bronze medal

    I am still remembering Chrislane’s

    “Cons up 2 or 3, labour down 2 or 3”

    … with scepticism

  8. The Other Site is reporting ComRes online for Indy on Snday/S Mirror: CON 33 +5 LAB 39 nc LD 11 +2 Ukip 10 -4

    So good news for Con, middling for Lab & LD, bad for UKIP. I assume it’s a straight UKIP->Con switch.

    rgdsm

  9. Tories happy that they are up 5%.

    Labour happy that their vote has held.

    Libs happy that they are up 2%.

  10. @Steve – without wanting to get too political on it, leaving the EU doesn’t necessarily mean workers will lose rights. All it means is our government would be free to write employee’s rights laws as they see fit. Assuming we even voted to leave (which even as someone who would vote out, I see as unlikely because Germany wants us to stay in and will use their influence to make sure Britain gets a deal we’d vote Yes to), perhaps the government elected in 2020 would win on the grounds of standing up for employees rights. Leaving the EU won’t automatically remove all the legislation in place. It would only leave us free to set whatever direction we chose.

  11. The last Tory polling figure at 28% from Comres was probably dodgy and the 5% rise is just a return to a more realistic level. Not a EU ref bounce.

    As for the other polls out, I predict no real change to recent polling.

    Tomorrows YG ST poll will be

    Labour 42%
    Tory 33%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 9%

  12. Knowing the fieldwork dates of the ComRes would be useful. Was it after the EU speech but before the negative GDP or does it fully include both events?

  13. R Huckle – the previous ComRes poll looked strange compared to the one before… but it was due to a methodology change, rather than a freaky sample

  14. ComRes interviewed 2,035 GB adults online between 23rd and 25th January 2013.

    Thanks for the link to the details Anthony.
    Pro-rata 2/3rds of the fieldwork pre-dates the GDP announcement.

    It’ll be useful to see whether the prospect of a triple-dip recession makes any difference to the other polls.

  15. No doubt this will get headline writers spinning, although Anthony’s analysis suggest no real chance. Given this, proper poll watchers should add this to the small but growing evidence base that the big speech hasn’t really changed much, if anything.

  16. I am beginning to think that ComRes are simply headline chasing with their all too frequent changes in methodology.

  17. @Amber

    ComRes interviewed 2,035 GB adults online between 23rd and 25th January 2013.

    Comres link on left of this site.

  18. @ tsitsi

    We x’d posts but Thank you. :-)

  19. Alec – the Lab lead will have fallen regardless of the methodology change, it only serves to increase or decrease the number of minor party supporters in the final results.

  20. @Anthony

    “If that is the case, it would suggest a lot of the increase in UKIP’s support in ComRes’s poll last month, and their drop in support this month, is just switching methodology back and forth.”

    What an interesting time to reverse the methodology. Tories up 5, UKIP down 4 a few days after Cameron’s promise of a In/Out Referendum. Genuine VI switch or just a reversion to where ComRes were about two polls ago? Accordingly, I’d say it’s impossible to tell from this specific poll if Cameron’s speech has had any effect. Mind you, what a gift for Tory spin doctors! Headline in tomorrow’s Sunday Sun, irrespective of what the other polls may or may not say: “New Poll shows Cammo has Farage on the run!” lol

  21. Those of us who think the most important number is Lab support not the lead will notice no change although with same methodology down 2% according to Anthony’s fag packet.

    Seems to me about right with YG perhaps down to 40-42 from 43/44 a week or 2 of ago.

    Not only Europe speech but also DC’s assured Hostage crisis handling may be having some cumulative effect.

    GDP numbers will have little if anything impact as the negative growth already felt. A triple dip may have some effect in damaging credibilty and be important as a weapen for Labour during the GE campaign but still limited as it is experiences not Economic numbers that drive VI….imho.

  22. I think what this poll shows is the realignment we have in british politics, the conservative vote share went up by 5% but the labour vote was unchanged, it will be very difficult for the tories and the labour party to take votes from each other as both are very close to their core vote levels, David cameron was correct to pitch from the right and try and tack UKIP supporters behind him in the same way Ed miliband has united the left behind Labour, this will probably make it virtually impossible for any party to win the kinds of majorities we saw in the past under both conservative and Labour governments.

  23. I have always been a bit wary of Comres polls over the years – they have often been more volatile than other pollsters and their regular methodological changes hardly enhances confidence in their findings.

  24. @AW

    Assuming your quick calculation is correct then i think i am right in saying this the smallest labour number and smallest labour lead for some time.

  25. @AW

    I should have said for ComRes of course not my favourite pollster.

  26. The man hand-picked by George Osborne to run the Bank of England [Mark Carney] has fuelled speculation that he will order a policy revolution to jump-start the stalled British economy as fears grow of a triple-dip recession.
    —————–
    U-turn, if U want to; the boy is not for turning; he’ll have Mark do it for him. ;-)

  27. @JimJam

    “…as it is experiences not Economic numbers that drive VI….imho.”

    I think that’s right and probably why the expected 4p hike in petrol prices will almost certainly damage the governing parties VI ratings. Ironically, the price of oil and behaviour of the oil companies, isn’t something that a government can do much about, but the great British public do like to kick their rulers in the goolies if they get clobbered at the petrol pumps and, as transport costs rise, in the the supermarkets too. Ditto improved employment figures. Good news headlines but if a lot of people are underemployed, paid poorly and feel insecure, then headline figures will not feed into the elusive feelgood factor so beloved of politicians seeking re-election.

    As you say, personal experience is far important than economic statistics which, quite often don’t chime with how people view reality.

  28. As a non smoker I have no access to fag packets.

    So instead here’s a comparison with the last internet poll conducted by Com Res using the same methodology as this one – namely the November IoS poll.

    Thus tonight’s Com Res poll is as follows (changes from November in brackets):
    Con 33 (+2) , Lab 39 (-4) , LD 11 (uc) , Other 17 (+1)

  29. Sorry, should be:
    Con 33 (+2) , Lab 39 (-4) , LD 11 (+1) , Other 17 (+1)

  30. Phil – in the absence of a fag packet, such calculations may also be done on a beermat

  31. Well all I know is that my weekly food bill is becoming astronomical,I have just
    Received a huge electricity bill for a period when we were being really careful
    About turning off lights etc,and just had to put sixty pounds of diesel into the
    Only sort of vehicle that will get us from A to B n the country.
    If this a common story across the UK,then whoever is in power is in trouble,
    Whatever their politics are.IMHO.

  32. @Amber Star

    I read the article in question, no suggestion there of any change by Osborne. As I said on the previous thread i am sure he will continue as per his stategy.

  33. @Ann in Wales

    I’m sure you right that people respond to things as they see and feel them personally. In terms of the actual politics of the situation you would have probably paid more for you petrol and the food and the electricity bills would have been the same under a different Government.

  34. “…you would have probably paid more for you petrol and the food and the electricity bills would have been the same under a different Government.”

    But your pay might have been higher and the highest earners might have been paying more tax and probably fule would have been chaeaper because VAT would have been less.

  35. …….. and we wouldn’t have had snow and floods.

  36. “I expect a Labour Government under Ed Miliband would try to abolish the pound and replace it with the euro

    Agree: 30% Disagree: 32% Don’t know: 38%”

    Perhaps “I expect a Conservative Government under David Cameron would try to abolish EU regulation on employment rights and the environment” should have been thrown in for good measure.

  37. Observer poll out- big Labour lead (13%) BUT mostly conducted before EU Referendum pledge, so Tories still leading 1-0 on the night!.

  38. Was it not but a year ago that Pm Cameron got a fillip from his manful stand against the new EU treaty and wielded to great effect the UK veto.

    And a year on and after a long gestation of 6 months we’ve a referendum which for all it sounds specific – is rather like Mr Blair’s in 2005 – more conditional than a subjunctive clause employing the conditional tense as an illustration of the passive tense.

    It won him easy plaudits but he is rather wasting his sweetness on the desert air since we’re two and a half years from an election. Assuming next year’s pantomime season brings another reprise of this seasonal favourite I suspect the electorate may not respond with the same warmth.

    The trouble with playing the Dame is that popular approbation (applause) is more reliant on a good script than the improbability of male impersonation. Reading between the lines this wasn’t a behind the iron curtain speech the PM delivered but more a behind the chintz curtains speech full of dog whistle sounds signifying nothing very much…

    On the basis of what he has conjured up I’d say Europe will not win him the next election but eventually it may loose him his intellectual credibility. The trouble with striptease is the tease is over once you’ve lost all your clothes. and now in or out we know what the PM has nothing left to take off.

  39. In today’s world writing on the back of a fag packet is an expensive way to make a calculation, probably cheaper to buy a calculator.

    I’m surprised if people really have bought Cameron’s tale that he will offer a referendum in 2018. It smacked of empty promises to me personally.

    Surely bringing about the UK’s first ever triple dip will kill the coaltion or any chance they had of winning in 2015.

  40. I agree prices are high and times are tough for many, but there is no guarantee things would be better under labour. In fact they could be worse. The thing is we will never know.
    Actually looking forward to Carney. Have a bit of money in Canada, and he seems to have done a good job, especially with debt.
    These polls are pretty good for Cameron, but I’ll take real note of the numbers in a few months time.

  41. Thus tonight’s Com Res poll is as follows (changes from November in brackets):
    Con 33 (+2) , Lab 39 (-4) , LD 11 (uc) , Other 17 (+1)

    Come on, are we being serious here? I know the Tory High Command and the tabloid press will be trying desperately to spin the polls in such a way as to demonstrate some positive movement following Cameron’s speech, but I expect a bit better from UKPR. The relevant polls to look at are those taken immediately prior to the Referendum announcement and afterwards. We have one so far and that was yesterday’s YouGov showing no movement. We have a ComRes today that can only be compared to November and has had some methodological tweaks in the meantime, yet still shows a 6% Labour lead. Opinium has Labour 13% ahead, although some of the fieldwork was conducted prior to Cameron’s speech.

    Unless tonight’s YouGov confounds me completely, only the most fervent Cameronite, or rabid Miliband detractor, could possibly claim that anything remotely significant has happened as a result of the EU Referendum offer. That may well disappoint people of varied political persuasions but, please, don’t let’s try and invent political drama where none exists. It’s frankly silly.

  42. and.. If labour do get in in 2015, then I will be happy to let them have a crack at this, but I still don’t think tax and spend is the answer. In my book, if any party needs to charge you over 50% in income tax to justify Govt spending, then there is somehing wrong.

  43. Will we get the headline VI from the YG for the Sunday Times tonight? Or is it not being released until tomorrow morning?

  44. @CrossBat1,

    “Come on, are we being serious here? I know the Tory High Command and the tabloid press will be trying desperately to spin the polls in such a way as to demonstrate some positive movement following Cameron’s speech, but I expect a bit better from UKPR.”

    Erm…I take it that must have been a hit at Anthony? He was only reporting changes from the last COMRES poll (as he does with all polls). I certainly don’t think Anthony has overreacted at all to Cameron’s speech (or anyone else on here for that matter!). No one is claiming any great shift in polling or otherwise.

    I agree about there probably being little change with regards to the polls. We’ll have to wait until the Yougov poll before drawing any definitely conclusions, but if you account for methodological changes, UKIP are only slightly down – which suggests the Yougov lead will probably still be in the 9-12 point range IMO.

  45. Ambi

    “erm” ………………………………

    Good snitching attempt but actually a refernce to Phil Haines

  46. @Paul Croft,

    There was only one conclusion that could be drawn….criticism of UKPR and its reporting means criticism of AW.

    You have history of causing a bit of a stir yourself on here. Especially to those who don’t happen to agree with you.

  47. @AmbivalentSupporter

    Not a hit at Anthony, more a moan about some posters on here who, having predicted the political game changing after Cameron’s speech, now try to extract meagre and erroneous evidence to prove that they were right. That’s the job of party spin doctors and tabloid editors not contributors to a website that usually provides a sensible, evidence based discussion about opinion polls.

    Look, as the Aussies say, if there had been significant movement in the polls after Cameron’s speech, as there was in March last year, then I’d be the first to recognise it and debate its causes and implications, but there hasn’t been any such movement and, accordingly, we should all move on. Most of the country has, I suspect.

  48. ambi

    You could do with a sense of humour.

  49. @Paul,

    “Come on, are we being serious here? I know the Tory High Command and the tabloid press will be trying desperately to spin the polls in such a way as to demonstrate some positive movement following Cameron’s speech, but I expect a bit better from UKPR. The relevant polls to look at are those taken immediately prior to the Referendum announcement and afterwards. We have one so far and that was yesterday’s YouGov showing no movement. We have a ComRes today that can only be compared to November and has had some methodological tweaks in the meantime, yet still shows a 6% Labour lead. Opinium has Labour 13% ahead, although some of the fieldwork was conducted prior to Cameron’s speech.”

    He was criticising AW’s decision to compare today’s poll with December’s.

1 2 3