This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10% – another single figure lead for Labour. In the past few week YouGov’s daily polls have shown increasingly frequent 11, 12 even 13 point leads, and had looked as though the Labour lead may have been inching upwards, but now we are back down in the 10 point sort of area.

The poll also asked voting intention in an EU referendum – the result is not as striking as the Sunday Times poll that had people saying they would vote to stay in (that one came after some other questions on referendums and Europe, so there could have been an order effect), but it confirms the turnaround in public opinion. 40% said they would vote to leave, 37% said they would vote to stay – a three point lead for leaving. Compare this to the twenty-one point lead for leaving YouGov found in October and November last year.

Meanwhile the full tables for yesterday’s ICM poll are now up on their website here. As usual the re-allocation of don’t knows reduced Labour’s lead, in this case from eight points to five points – so despite the apparent contradiction, ICM and YouGov are actually recording a very similar Labour lead, eight points and nine points. The difference in their topline reported figure is because the two companies make different assumptions about what don’t knows will do (YouGov ignore them, ICM assume a proportion will go back to their previous parties).


270 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 10”

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  1. Cameron’s speech has been so heavily trailed that the key points are already known.

    What’s more interesting now is how Miliband responds. As matters stand, barring some backtracking in response to Cameron’s stance, Miliband’s apparent ruling out of a referendum greatly narrows the options and will threaten to make the issue of holding the referendum rather than the terms of the renegotiation the main dividing line in 2015.

  2. @ Virgilio

    I have been following the Israel elections. Thanks for adding your informed opinion about the possible coalition outcomes.

  3. @Paul C

    I agree with you over the damage caused by uncertainty. What I would thus like to see happen is this, on the grounds of both principle and tactics, in term’s of Miliband’s response:

    1. If a referendum is bad (his current position) what’s even worse would be the damage caused by the uncertainty of waiting more than four years for the outcome of a future referendum.
    2. So, reluctantly in response to Cameron’s commitment, purely to get rid of the uncertainty, Labour will support any proposal to hold a referendum in 2014 and challenges the Conservatives to put the process in train forthwith by guaranteeing the parliamentary votes for that.
    3. Even on current terms, Labour will campaign to stay in*, but will do its best to secure better terms of membership, to make the advantages of that course even clearer.
    4. Thus, in the interests of national unity, Labour offers to form part of the negotiating team provided that the social chapter or at least key parts of it is dropped from the items up for renegotiation.

    Well we can all hope in vain!

    [*That’s almost a given, but personally I’m more ambivalent about the merits of in or out.]

  4. Hi,
    Just wondering how much cast iron is in the promise of a referendum?

  5. 41/31

  6. AS s far as I can see the section of the business community that appears to want withdrawal from the EU consists of businesses that do not engage in international trade at all ,that want the opportunity to pay people less while making them work longer and making it easier to sack them and the spurious argument that there will be a reduction in “red tape”.

    Despite the fact that most EU employment law with the exception of that relating to workers hours,pay and rights actually is mirrored in UK legislation.

    This is basically the same section of the business community that said minimum wage legislation would cause unemployment to rise by a Million.

    If Cameron’s speech triggers anything hopefully it will be a debate regarding the actual benefits of membership rather than the constant flag waving tosh.

  7. The speech now has perfect political timing – by Friday, when Labour will want to shout about the GDP figures/etc, the Conservatives will be able to reply with, ‘EU referendum’.
    I expect we’ll see a massive boost in Tory support soon – far higher than the boost from the EU-Veto.

  8. Good Morning All.
    TINGEDFRINGE: I agree with you, and Ed M considered the Referendum move.

    A very impressive start, imo, by the PM in his speech.

  9. Cameron’s renegotiation of the EU terms is just theatre like Miliband saying all Tory cuts are evil.

  10. Chrislane,

    Well for me the starting few minutes can be summed up as;

    The EU has done much to bring peace and prosperity to Europe but we should never forget that they are all foreigners!

    Peter.

  11. Very brave Prime Minister.

  12. Well finally we will have something to talk about concerning opinion polls whatever they show over the next few days!

    I suspect Tories will gain. Not convinced it will either be massive or sustained. In many ways the referendum was his one remaining trump card and it is very early to be playing it.

  13. Having just listened to the speech and the Q&A session, I’m bemused.

    What, exactly, ARE the things, currently, about the EU and the UK’s relationship with it that Cameron finds unacceptable?

    And what will he do if he finds that he cannot change these unspecified unacceptables?

  14. So according to the PM who wanted the SNP to detail full Independence and hold a referendum before 2014 it takes till 2017-18 to decide some changes in the EU.

    That’s logical!

    Peter.

  15. A much more thoughtful speech than I had dared to hope for.

    Pleased he resisted the temptation just to trot out a shopping list before his review of competencies is finished.

    Sad to contemplate how many EU leaders , setting out their “Five most important areas” would have put “Competitiveness” first-one or two at most ?

    This is a vision of EU which is right in my opinion-one which most Conservatives will identify with. But I doubt very much whether it is one shared in many European Capitals-and most certainly not in Brussels.

    At least a Conservative Prime Minister has actually described an EU I could believe in. That in itself is some comfort , from the knowledge that it probably won’t happen.

    But-go for it Cam.

  16. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 22nd January – CON 31%, LAB 41%, LD 12%, UKIP 10%; APP -29

    Is Danny Alexander’s Trident proposal the reason for the LibDems going up in the VIs?

  17. Good Morning All.
    I also think that the Gove moves on A Levels which I welcome show the Government moving forward. Stephen Twigg’s response seemed weak.

    On Europe I think the PM spoke like a national leader. It might well push up the tory ‘vi’. From their point of view, Labour should have done the same; getting ahead of the ball.

  18. This is the third successive time in as many days that Labour’s vote in the daily poll has been at 42 or less. Part of a trend of a lowering of Labour’s vote or just random variation – only time will tell, I guess.

    I’ve noticed that Cameron hasn’t said what he would do if he can’t renogiate the Uk’s relationship with Europe – would he, or wouldn’t he, for instance, still hold a referendum?

  19. So DC wants to take powers away from the euro Parliament and transfer them back to the council of ministers, hummm

  20. Fresh Start’s Andea Leadsom, Douglas Carswell, Daniel Hannan, Bernard Jenkin, Bill Cash, Liam Fox… all over the moon about the Speech. UKIP give their guarded support for moving the debate onto their ground.

    Cameron in a purple tie (overdid the male grooming product imo).

  21. My quick analysis – The only people willing to talk positively about Cameron’s speech seem to be supporters or members of the Conservative party. Everyone else has major and deep issues with the position taken. Either hitting him for threatening relations with Europe, or for not going far enough, and for not providing a clear meaning to what ‘reforms’ would be demanded.

    The BBC seem to be struggling to find enough people to defend Cameron to meet their editorial ‘balance’.

    The general tone seems to have rapidly shifted to “He’s holding a gun to the EU’s head because he’s worried about losing votes to UKIP”, and I don’t think that’s a good narrative.

  22. Distinct possibility that there will be a further hardening of attitudes in European capitals. It may be increasingly difficult to reverse the dynamic which has been set in train.

  23. @Jay Blanc

    “The general tone seems to have rapidly shifted to “He’s holding a gun to the EU’s head because he’s worried about losing votes to UKIP”, and I don’t think that’s a good narrative.”

    I think it might be a good short term narrative and may well give the CON VI % a boost as UKIP defectors come back into the fold. However many of us thought that was the likely outcome come 2015 anyway.

    Long term I don’t think this referendum promise will matter too much in 2015. Many, many other things will come between now and really what does a quick bounce in the polls matter or not.

    Lab do need to be thoughtful and nuanced on their response (which IMO they have not been so far) but this shouldn’t mean pandering to some of the more obvious anti-European and xenophobic attitudes of the voting public. A tactic I believe that would do them no good.

    On Cameron I agree with Alec when he says he is very good at tactics (and in the days that come this may look like a masterstroke) but not so good at strategy. In the time between now and 2015 there is a lot of potential for the European issue to look more muddled that settled by today’s announcement.

  24. @ Colin

    “At least a Conservative Prime Minister has actually described an EU I could believe in. That in itself is some comfort , from the knowledge that it probably won’t happen.”

    I would think that your viewpoint here is a widely held one amongst loyal Con voters. And I am sure Cameron’s will be widely well received by the membership as a result.

    However given the current Con leadership position is so convinced we are better off “In” the EU. And given your rather gloomy belief that proper reform of the EU is unlikely. Doesn’t this rather suggest that Europe and our ongoing role within it remains a problem for your party?

    By the way I’m pretty convinced when all the shouting is done any referendum would see a vote for us to stay “In” by the way. Something I am sure Cameron is equally aware of.

  25. @Grhinports

    Short term poll boost over EU, long term negative effect? Haven’t we been here before?

  26. Being competitive is pretty much at the top of every European leaders list but like Obama they don’t see a race to the bottom as the way to do it.

    Germany has achieved higher productivity and exports than Britain without our much heralded flexible Labour markets and will be reluctant to follow suit.

    As to the reaction in european capitals i think it will be “ho hum”…

    The British are being there normal moaning selves again as they always are but when push comes to shove they’ll settle for a few tweaks that we can live with.

    I think they see Britain a bit like the mother-in-law in comedy sketches, they don’t like her and she drives them nuts, but they try to get a long and say “Yes dear that’s right” while generally ignoring her, because it’s better than having a major family row.

    I think at the heart of the issue is that Europe is important to Britain and Britain is important Europe but we’re not as important in Europe as we think we are or want to be.

    Oddly enough I think we get more out of our relationship with Europe than we do from the US but we seem to think that the one with the US is ore important.

    I think it’s clear from the uS comments of recent weeks that they probably put Europe higher than us too.

    This whole thing will marginally boost the Tories for a short time and Cameron in particularly but it won’t take long for Labour to start to pick away and the fault line between Out and In Tories.

    This hasn’t done anything more than paper over the crack everyone knows is there. I find it hard to see how the Tories can even agree amongst themselves about the changes they say they want.

    Peter.

  27. So. He’s played the Fil Rouge!

    Fascinating task for the pollsters now. For GE, will the public’s professed desire for a say on Europe outweigh the ire over 5 years of economic stagnation.

    Proper politics from here on in.

  28. So. He’s played the Fil Rouge!

    Fascinating task for the pollsters now. For GE, will the public’s professed desire for a say on Europe outweigh the ire over 5 years of economic stagnation.

    Proper politics from here on in.

  29. @Jay Blanc

    Possibly.

    History does have a habit of repeating itself.

  30. Peter C

    The quality of the debate on Europe in the country really makes me want to weep.

    Blithe comments like “We are a proud and independent nation.” as though Germans, Italians, Dutch, Danes etc are cringing cowards who want to throw away their independence and heritage at the drop of a hat.

    Comments like, “We want a competitive Europe”. As though folk on the continent want one that is uncompetitive.

    Little England über alles.

  31. (Clarification: when I said that he’d played the Fil Rouge, I clearly wasn’t intending that the precise, literal translation be used as a description of his speech. Precious little indication of what Our Leader considers to be his Red Lines.)

  32. Interesting that Cameron’s big speech peaked at only No. 5 in the BBC News website’s most read articles – and has now dropped back to No.7. Seems people are more interested in the Beyonce lip-synch controversey than the PMs vision for Europe.

    Kind of reinforces the view that the general public are not as obsessive about Europe as the Tories seem to think they are.

  33. I love the bit about British doctors being allowed to work longer hours. So the social charter is the main power to be repatriated just as we thought but nicely hidden as a concern that it’s harming patient care. And that about it for substance, otherwise it all cliche and platitudes without any real meaning apart from the cast titanium promise of an in/out ref.

  34. Corkscrew
    And below the article about Brian Cox leading in a new comedy.

    Mind, I have to say that the pouting pop scientist is looking a bit rough round the edges these days. Must be all those late nights peering through a telescope.

  35. Canning, Palmerston, Disraeli, Salisbury, and before them Pitt all played this England card, very successfully.

  36. @LEFTY

    Nice one.

  37. RIN

    And of course the Working time directive does not prevent anyone working more than 48 hours/week (they can opt-out if they wish – flexibility). But it does prevent them being forced to do so!

  38. I have to say that I thought the PM’s much-vaunted presentational style and off-the-cuff wit deserted him today.

    Surely when he said that support in the UK for the EU was only “wafer thin”, he should have used John Cleese’s outrageous French accent, a la restaurant sketch in The Meaning of Life?

  39. Good to see another set of encouraging employment number released this morning.
    – Emplyment rate 71%, the highest since 1971.
    – Unemplyment fell 37,000 in the latest quarter to under 2.5 million.
    – People climing job seekers allowance down 12,000 last month to 1.56 million.
    – Part time employment fell 23,000 but fill time employment went up 123,000 in three months to November.
    Most of Europe would be delighted to see progress like this.

  40. Shift in La VI in the last five YG polls, to 10.7 v. 11.1 in previous ten. Statistically not significant.

  41. Very little serious informed analysis of DCs speech here. Plenty of taking individual sentences at face-value or out of context for pointless partisan jabs, and very little discussion of what was obviously meant.

    Any chance of a grown-up debate?

  42. Lefty

    Brian may have looked a bit worn out but what a great Jock accent he does.

  43. Lead, I mean. Funny how people refer to single figures in a couple of polls as signifying anything except statistical variation, well within the expected margin or error. While the only possible trend is steady as she goes.

  44. I know Grant Shapps is very weak but gosh this euro policy is going to unpick with great speed.

    The strange, intellectual thing is how obvious the flaws are and yet how little thought seems to have been given to giving coherent answers.

  45. TOH
    “Emplyment rate 71%, the highest since 1971”

    Apart from 1971-1981, 1987-1992 and 1995-2009, you’re correct.

  46. Steve2

    You could help initiate a grown up debate by pointing out the substance of what he thinks our problems are with the EU, what is unscceptable and what he thinks an acceptable situation would be. Because I’m damned if I can find it. And without that, any discussion is pointless.

  47. @Leftylampton

    The figure in employment of 29.68 million (an emplyment rate of 71%) is the highest since records began in 1971.

    Sorry I should have been clearer, alright now!

    I would have thought that no matter what ones politics these figures would be pleasing.

  48. Lefty

    That’s close enough surely?

    I do like the potential mantra:

    “Let our doctors work longer hours so that we don’t need so many and can cask more”

  49. I spose we coud cask them but I meant sack.

  50. Steve2,

    You can’t make a silk purse from a sows ear.

    Serious informed analysis of a speech is difficult if it isn’t a serious informed speech.

    Cameron gave us platitude to try to hide kicking a divisive party issue into the long grass.

    Peter.

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