This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10% – another single figure lead for Labour. In the past few week YouGov’s daily polls have shown increasingly frequent 11, 12 even 13 point leads, and had looked as though the Labour lead may have been inching upwards, but now we are back down in the 10 point sort of area.

The poll also asked voting intention in an EU referendum – the result is not as striking as the Sunday Times poll that had people saying they would vote to stay in (that one came after some other questions on referendums and Europe, so there could have been an order effect), but it confirms the turnaround in public opinion. 40% said they would vote to leave, 37% said they would vote to stay – a three point lead for leaving. Compare this to the twenty-one point lead for leaving YouGov found in October and November last year.

Meanwhile the full tables for yesterday’s ICM poll are now up on their website here. As usual the re-allocation of don’t knows reduced Labour’s lead, in this case from eight points to five points – so despite the apparent contradiction, ICM and YouGov are actually recording a very similar Labour lead, eight points and nine points. The difference in their topline reported figure is because the two companies make different assumptions about what don’t knows will do (YouGov ignore them, ICM assume a proportion will go back to their previous parties).

270 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 10”

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  1. Steve2

    What makes you think that not agreeing with something equates to not understanding it?

  2. The question I would ask is if some changes are both inevitable and advantageous and that they are already starting to be discussed by the rest of europe, then why can’t we have just sensibly join in with those discussions? Why wait for 2 and a 1/2 years to say “OK, we’re ready now” ?? What do we do meanwhile, watch and admire?

  3. RiN
    @”When will we know what we are going to be voting on in this ref, before the election? ”

    It seems possible if you read the timetable for the groundwork involved :-

    Also note from the above :-

    “Government departments will then report on areas of competence and their findings will be published during the course of the review.”

    Whether this will gel into a firm list of objectives in time for the 2015 GE Manifesto -???

    PLeased to see that this review will be done “With our European partners and the EU institutions ”

    ….that should be fun !

  4. Statgeek.

    Thanks for the link.

    I’m still struggling though, because a) measure of output and consumption should in theory give the same answer and b) The ONS website says that they measure output.

    I guess if you are saying that consumers are repairing their balance sheets by saving and that has a detrimental effect on demand, then I’d understand the logic.

    Of course, in that case, we’re back to the problem being fundamentally one of demand rather than supply.

  5. It looks like the more traditional Tories are heaping praise on Cameron, which has to be a good thing for the Tories. Firming up your base is vital if you are to become competitive, especially if it fits with sentiment elsewhere in the electorate.

    However, there are very many risks here. His right flank will now be emboldened and he has made the chance for a decisive split in the Tory party much more likely post 2015.

    @Smukesh also identified another risk. A headline snippet of the speech I saw, showed Cameron talking about employment law and environment as being two areas where Brussels was doing too much. For many of us, these are the main areas where the EU has been a resounding success, with EU regulation being the main reason why part time staff now have a much better deal, private water companies have been forced to clean up rivers and beaches, and we can have some optimism that in future years our cities will become quieter and more pleasant places.

    Renegotiation creates many losers in the UK, and Cameron has allowed Labour the space to highlight/make up all kinds of scare stories about what comes next. I expect Greens will tactically flock back to Labour in 2015 (both of us).

    The other key risk is to his party support amongst those who matter in the business community. Cameron has to control his headbangers, who will now feel emboldened, and try to assure his many rich donors and other supporters that there is no risk to EU membership. Balancing this is going to be quite difficult. We’ve already seen how much more popular EU membership appears to get once there is a concerted campaign of people stating the pro case, especially from business.

    Some say that this is a courageous move by the PM, but I disagree. I see the speech as one of weakness and short term tactical manouvering. A strong PM who believes in the EU would have told the minority in his party to grow up and accept the deal and look at whats is at stake, and then tried to sell the EU to the nation – if he really believes in it. This could include renegotiation – as was pointed out previously, the EU is constantly changing.

    But the referendum move is a simple electoral calculation in kicking the can down the road, except that when he catches up with the can, it will be much bigger and more difficult to handle.

  6. Paulcroft,

    If you don’t like the codes you could always register like the rest of us.

    On a general point;

    I wonder if Alex Salmond will renew his calls for technical talks with the UK government so that we can renegotiate the devolution settlement and agree the terms of an Independence deal before the referendum

    Sauce for the Goose!


  7. He’s just trying to limit the landlside against him in 2015. Might work!

  8. @Peter Cairns
    I see a lot of nationalists are saying that this has been a good day for the Yes Campaign due to the argument that the delay in holding the In/Out referendum causes uncertainty (this is what Alex Salmond has said in his comments).

    Firstly, I doubt whether this technical issue will have any long term impact on either the outcome of the independence referendum, or indeed VI for the Westminster election in 2015.

    Secondly, dont they realise that the argument about delay causing uncertainity is exactly what was used against the SNP in putting off its referendum, and that Labour’s position is consistent across both issues?

  9. PaulCroft “Oh I’m fed up writing and then being told my captcha code can’t be read.
    Sod it.”

    Copy your post before pressing send then at least you can just paste it into the text box if the captcha code isn’t recognized :-)

  10. Peter,

    The SNP’s goal of independence bears no resemblance to DC’s goal of a restructured place but still within the EU. The SNP show no desire whatsoever to renegotiate further devolution beyond the Scotland Act.

    But maybe the SNP should *genuinely* contact the EU and confirm whether they will have to re-apply…instead of claiming they have done so already, but then saying they were “mistaken” (seriously?!) when challenged on it…and then rejecting EU comments that Scotland would have to re-apply.

    And maybe they should also *genuinely* contact the BoE about staying in Sterling, instead of again claiming they have done so already only for the BoE to say no such communication has ever taken place.

    But, then again, maybe the SNP don’t want such clarification….

  11. PeterC

    As far as I was aware I am registered

    I shall seek legal advice

  12. If you are registered, and logged in, then above the comment box it will say “Logged in as Paulcroft. Logout >”

    (assuming of course, that your name is Paul Croft)

    If it doesn’t say that, then you aren’t logged in, or aren’t registered.

  13. Paul

    It’s not enough to register, you need to log in as well

    Regards richard

  14. Paul

    Ps, you are fired!!!

    new thread!!

  15. Steve2,

    We have contacted the EU for clarification and their official response is that they cannot comment on an internal national matter without a formal request from it’s government.

    In short Cameron is demanding that the SNP gives clear answers in Europe but the EU will only give them to Cameron and Cameron is refusing to ask because he doesn’t want clear answers he wants uncertainty.

    We’ve also asked the BoE for talks and the UK government to clear this all up but as yet they have all said no. yet again the people warning about the uncertainties keep refusing to say what they intend to do.

    As to the details of DevoMax all the unionist parties say they want change but none are saying what changes they will be until after the referendum.

    Thats a bit like Cameron saying we have the vote to agree the new settlement and then we negotiate it. I am okay with that if it applies to Scotland and the EU or the other way round but I am not to keen on it being one way for him and another for us.


  16. @Lefty

    “I guess if you are saying that consumers are repairing their balance sheets by saving and that has a detrimental effect on demand, then I’d understand the logic.”

    That’s pretty much my opinion (which doesn’t make it fact). Also the knock on of how banks are re-structuring, i.e. not lending, their overall debtors balance sheet (those who owe the bank money, such as mortgages and loans) being reduced will reduce long-term projected income (interest
    on loans), so the banks will have to reduce their debts accordingly.

    Maybe even some leveraging ratios, capital ratios and the like (I forget which is most appropriate here). They too need to reduce their risk, so they lay off staff, who get jobs earning less elsewhere, and other gets jobs, but overall the demand doesn’t increase massively.

    That’s my best guess at it all. I think that the economy is healing, but at a rate of three steps forward and two steps back.

  17. @Chordata

    “Copy your post before pressing send then at least you can just paste it into the text box if the captcha code isn’t recognized :-)”

    Or use a browser which remembers the input (IE didn’t when I last used it).

  18. Statgeek

    Then we’re as one.

    There are still plenty out there insisting that the problems are all supply side and can be ameliorated by yet more labour market deregulation.


  19. Billy Bob & Gary Gibbon

    “Mr Ottoway is on No. 10?s radar as the man most likely to stand down in his Commons seat to create a vacancy for Boris Johnson to parachute back into parliament and run for the party leadership.”

    I know nothing of Mr Ottoway. I member a great deal about Reginald Sorensen

  20. AMBER
    ” the Labour Party can win on standing against Cameron’s referendum plan. It is Hobson’s choice for the majority of voters. Vote In & lose employment protection or vote Out & lose EU membership”
    I agree that Labour can win by standing against a referendum, but not sure I understand your choices. Isn’t if vote against the referendum and don’t lose either?

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