The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor came out earlier today and has topline figures of CON 30%(-5), LAB 43%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 9%(+2). Full details are here.

While we’ve seen it from some other companies, it is the first time that MORI have shown UKIP ahead of the Lib Dems (and, I think, the first time we’ve seen it happen in a telephone poll, which tend to show lower levels of UKIP support than online polls). There is also a sharp drop in Conservative support – normal caveats apply there: sure, it could be the start of a trend, but it could also be normal random sample error (that said, YouGov’s daily polls have been showing leads towards the upper end of their normal range of late, so its worth keeping an eye on).


389 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 30, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 9”

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  1. Labour lead increasing to an average of 12 with Yougov. This is just the product of a widening lead.

    The real question is will this lead narrow after Cameron’s speech, and if so, by how much? Depending on the content of his speech as well as what he promises, this may tell us a bit about Labour’s and the Tories’ chances in 2015.

  2. Whilst this is a sharp drop, there as been a slight decrease in the Tory support recently. Let’s see what the long awaited ‘Europe’ speech does to polling figures, maybe a slight improvement for the short term, but long term I can’t seeing it do anything.

    How many normal folks are going to care about his speech? Europe is of low to medium priority to voters, and outside of people who follow politics I can’t see it being on many people’s radar.

  3. one nil half time.

    Very cold.

    I have doubts about some of these figures here.

  4. So others have increased by 5 points.
    Isn’t that the story?

  5. The story is that we need more New-Thread-Monitors with better pay and conditions: its impossible to keep up with this sudden proliferation and Amber is alway shopping online at Alldi these days.

    Disgruntled of Barney

  6. The spreech will make no difference.

    It will generate a lot of Westminster chatter for 10 days and be forgotten except by UKIP.

  7. @ Paul C

    LOL :-)

  8. Normally I would assume such a large change to be an outlier, but with Mori only doing polls every month or so, it is difficult to tell from that alone?

    Comparing their scores with scores of yougov across similar time frames as data collected for yougov, for 3 out of the past four polls inclusive, they have been within a point or so of yougov (the other poll had a larger Lab lead than over that time period for yougov) and so I would draw the conclusion that this poll is unlikely to be an outlier.
    whether this 13 point lead is closer to the ACTUAL ballot box figure, than the 11.5 -12 that yougov seem to be averaging, we can only speculate.

  9. One facet of the IpsosMORI tables is how strongly the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups are breaking for Labour. They are breaking for Labour at least as strongly as the 65+ and 75+ groups break for the Tories.

    Not only that, but the tables show those 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds are on a par with the 65+s and 75+s when it comes to the “absolutely certain to vote” criteria.

  10. @Billy Bob
    When you say on a par, do you mean as a percentage or in real numbers? i.e. I think off the top of my head their are more people aged 55-64, and 65+, meaning those are more important in terms of polling trends now.

  11. JOHN B DICK
    “The spreech will make no difference.”
    If a man sinking in a swamp shouts out to you that he has a plan, you tend IMO to turn elsewhere for help.

  12. My typo prompts recall of a former SLAB MSP.

    “Spreech”

  13. @Danny Sweeney

    I can’t answer that except to say the unweighted/weighted samples are as follows for this poll:

    45-54: 194/176
    55-64: 181/152
    65-74: 243/215
    75+: 97/102

    So theoretically (in terms of this poll) the 45-64s and the 65+/75+ age groups would cancel each other out, leaving the election to be decided by under 45s.

  14. I bravely forecast that Cameron will be submerged by right wing howls of rage this weekend, all crying

    “It doesn’t go far enough”

    He’s like a bloke on thin ice jumping up and down to see if it will support his weight.

  15. Cameron and the Tories will almost certainly get some kind of bounce after this Friday, but most of it will come from the changed narrative in the media rather than the speech itself. Whether it will result in a long term improvement in Tory poll numbers (a la the Falklands) or not remains to be seen.

  16. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9805197/Alex-Salmond-No-prospect-of-an-independent-Scotland-joining-the-euro.html

    This is the nub of the problem for the SNP, and I suspect all to Labour’s advantage.

    Salmond has been simultaneously insisting that nothing is set in stone and there will be a detailed negotiation to be had (quite correctly) and then goes on to state what the outcome of those negotiations will be.

    I remain convinced that he has major difficulties here, and as the referendum date approaches, these difficulties will get ever greater.

    The Telegraph is also reporting that this poll shows 10% of Tory voters have switched to UKIP. Painful for DC if true.

  17. Correction.

    I think the 75+ figures are actually a subset of an overal 65+ sample (243/215), so the balance may be less rosy for the Conservatives in terms of the over 45 vote as a whole.

  18. Reading and listening to Tories criticisms of the EU over the last few days it seems to be strong on “We want chafes and powers back” but the specifics aren’t particularly earth shattering in that I doubt the average voter would notice.

    As the public if the think the EU interferes to much and they will say yes but most can’t name much of that interference other that an anger when the European court makes a decision they don’t like.

    I think most people would prefer decisions made by British courts to take precedence over an EU court up to the point when a British court made a decision they didn’t like in which case they would probably want to take it to a EU court.

    As people if they want the EU interfering in Uk policing and they would say no. Ask them if European police forces should work together and arrest criminals in their country fleeing British justice and I suspect they would say yes.

    In general they don’t like the EU but I am not sure that many can point to specifics.

    It’s a bit like the thing with MP’s people regularly rate their local MP as good while at the same time holding disparaging views on Mp’s in general.

    Does anyone know ( Anthony?) of any research into public attitudes in general to this sort of General v specific response.

    I know this isn’t the clearest post I’ve ever done (Yes I know few are), but I am trying to grasp at something that I think is important.

    I think it was Weber who talked about social sciences looking at peoples beliefs and opinions and understanding the consequences and contradictions between them.

    My wife as a psychologists has got me interested in Emotional literacy and Intelligence (I’ve even read a book!) and understanding how much peoples political responses are emotional as opposed to analytical
    is something that interests me.

    Peter.

  19. As I said on the previous thread, a lot of the UKIP boost may be due to MORI’s strict ‘certain to vote’ filter. If you look at all those expressing a preference the positions are reversed – Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 7%. This because, unusually for a ‘minor’ Party, 83% of its voters say they will certainly vote, compared to Con 62%, Lab 61%, LD 61%.

    This seems to be mainly because UKIP supporters are more enthusiastic about voting. However age also plays a part – 56% of UKIP voters are over 55 compared to only 31% of Labour’s (Con 43%, LD 38%) and 69% of over-55s are ‘certain to vote’ as opposed to 43% of under 35’s. Of course saying you will vote and actually doing so are different matters and it could be that UKIP supporters (and older voters) are just more emphatic in their opinions but not more energetic in turning up.

    Now this strict filter has been the same in the past as well, so there is probably a change in the underlying VI, but the filter would magnify any movement.

    The same filter may be responsible for the big ‘change’ in the Conservative vote . It means MORI only have an effective sample size of around 600 in their polls which would give a MoE for the Tory VI of +/-3.8 and hence greater volatility due to the smaller sample size. In contrast YouGov’s latest effective samples are mostly over 1500 – an MoE of only +/-2.4

    What may have happened was that last month’s figure of 35% was probably an outlier – it was MORI’s best figure for the Conservatives since the Spring. In contrast this month’s 30% would be towards the bottom of their post-Budget MoE, though they also had a 30% in September.

    This volatility could also affect the UKIP figure, though with a telephone poll it may be that people are more willing to answer UKIP first to the interviewer.

  20. bobby501

    I bet you a New-Thread-Monitor’s weekly allowance that Cameron wil not get any “bounce” from his speech in the Netherlands. The reason is simple: the resluting publicity wilall be about the disagreements, mainly from within his own party and obviously from Farage.

    Add to that comments from Clarke, Heseltine etcetc – and we haven’t got to the Lib Dems or the Labour Party yet …….

  21. @Jayblanc (FPT)
    “Immigration isn’t a vote gaining issue, and never has been.”

    I didn’t say that it was. I’d describe it instead as potentially a vote losing issue, and one which was certainly was such in 2010 as Labour found to its cost. Look how high it remains on the polling on key issues, and think how that might develop when the further relaxation of EU controls kicks in during 2014. The Government is clearly vulnerable on the issue but I’d say that Labour would be too if it were be seen to be advocating nothing of substance in response to public concerns.

  22. Alec

    The Telegraph is also reporting that this poll shows 10% of Tory voters have switched to UKIP. Painful for DC if true.

    It’s the percentage of those who say they voted Conservative in 2010 and who gave a voting intention and who say they are certain to vote (it’s only 8% of all 2010 voters who gave a VI). Given that the equivalent figure in today’s YouGov is 16%, it’s actually quite small (and only 17 people).

    Mind you it’s definitely the way for the Telegraph to get comments. 1362 since 5pm and it’s not even on the front or news pages of the website.

  23. @Phil Haines

    Labour didn’t loose the 2010 election over immigration, they lost it because there was a big economic collapse on their watch and the Conservatives ramped up fears of a second one due to a “sovereign debt crisis”.

    Immigration has always rated “high” on policy importance polling, for every election cycle it’s been polled. And they’ve consistently said that the Conservatives have better policies than Labour. Yet, this hasn’t ever moved the election in the Conservative’s favour when they’ve campaigned on harder-line immigration policy. People just aren’t good at ranking what they think are the most important issues to their vote.

  24. It’s probably true that raising the profile of the Europe question in any form will boost UKIP support these days. It’s a bit of a raw nerve to some people.

    Then again, DC could hardly ignore it forevermore, it was going to become of top importance sooner or later, so perhaps get any VI hit out of the way now when an election is not necessarily in the offing, then hope for the best afterward? UKIP support can go down as well as up.

  25. @Keith P

    I take the contrary opinion. I think that the best possible thing that DC could have done would to be to keep as quiet as possible about all things Europe, and ignoring attempts to bait him into action from UKIP and his right wing. As is, he’s legitimised UKIP and brought us to a point where the US Administration tell us to knock it off because there are economic consequences to this kind of politics.

  26. Alec

    You need to try to resist the urge to raise Macbethian issues whenever you read a Telegraph article!

    Did you watch the 9 hours of tedious debate at Westminster on the topic, when not a single Parliamentarian proposed a division on the issue?

    Just think how much more valuable it would have been for MPs to have spent the time considering the unemployment rates in the UK, rather than wittering away.

  27. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 16th January – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 8%; APP -28

    Back to par?

  28. 12% is the highest Libs have had since 2010.. but Mori has their lowest figure since 1990.
    Watch the commentariat experience collective head explosion.

  29. Reckon Mori at bottom end of moe for LD and Cons.

  30. The Results for January 2008 were CON 38%(-3), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 17%(+1).

  31. PETERCAIRNS
    “peoples’ political responses are emotional as opposed to analytical”
    For a post-Weberian discussion, and to be up to date with current academia, you could try reading Pierre Bourdieu’s ‘Distinction’ and much following work and commentary (see Wikipedia for a starter) on Bourdieu’s arguments on the use of cultural capital in social stratification and political belief.

  32. RC Whiting re ‘Others’

    I spotted this the other day the other companies reporting in the last few days all have others at 10% buy YG have them at 5%.

    I wondered if there was a methological explanation as sample error seems unlikely.

    Also what does it mean (if anything) when analysing these polls?

  33. @Oldnat – “Just think how much more valuable it would have been for MPs to have spent the time considering the unemployment rates in the UK, rather than wittering away.”

    Bit like the whole independence vote idea then?

  34. @TINGEDFRINGE
    Not so, the LDs managed a 12% in december. It’s just the upper scale of the values it seems now. in effect, they seem to be on 11% now, rather than the 9-10% they’ve shown most of last year.

  35. @jayblanc – ” …keep as quiet as possible about all things Europe”

    I have no doubt Cameron would like that.

    Thinking back to the end of 2011, he was fresh from the largest postwar backbench rebellion… over the EU referendum vote (81 rebels + 15 abstentions defying a three-line-whip). Gary Gibbon reported that Cameron actually went awol from No 10 in the hours before leaving for the December summit, such was the level of muttering about ultimatums and threats to his leadership. In an unusual move Hague was waiting for him in Bruxelles to make sure that he carried through with the symbolic “veto”.

    Current gossip is “that speech” will be singularly unambitious. If Cameron can steady the ship over this it will be a major achievement – if not, it will continue being an area of contention and play a part in dictating the direction of the party, perhaps when one of the 2010 intake eventually takes the helm.

  36. @Oldnat – “Just think how much more valuable it would have been for MPs to have spent the time considering the unemployment rates in the UK, rather than wittering away.”

    You mean, that would have been a balanced, rational and illuminating review of the problem, conducted as a rational give and take, by adult and well-informed representatives of the electorate and valuable to the voting public, to the unions, as to industry and our financial institutions? Yes, I see what you mean.

  37. PETER CAIRNS.

    For a look at the deep sources of human nature try something much more fundamental- E. O Wilson, the father of Sociobiology.

    Reading his “The Social Conquest of Earth” just now.

  38. T.Fringe.

    There’s something ironic about you being up at the crack of dawn commenting on the latest polling figures whilst simultaneously talking about “the commentariat” – a bit like going to Rome for the weekend and complaining about the tourists.

  39. Peter Cairns

    The European Court of Human Rights, to which you refer, is not the EU European Court.

    That you are confused by this, demonstrates the whole point about which, actually, you are correct. (If the UK leaves the EU, that would not, by itself, change a thing. We would have to end the treaty which we signed on the ECHR also).

    In fact, I think you are right that every liberal decision of the ECHR is presented by the press as an EU decision (when it suits them) and probably changes attitudes to ‘Europe’ in the polls. I am surprised nobody had picked up on your posting. Are all these knowledgeable politicos here equally confused?.

  40. @Howard

    The UK press has been picked up on their blurring of the distinction between the EU and ECHR a number of times but it makes no difference to the way in which they report the subject. The EU consists of 27 member states, whereas the ECHR is a convention of the Council of Europe (Conseil de l’Europe) which has 47 member states.

    Confusingly both bodies share a flag and anthem. Obviously you can be in the COE without being an EU member… but NOT vice-versa.

  41. @Jim Jam – “I spotted this the other day the other companies reporting in the last few days all have others at 10% buy YG have them at 5%.”

    WARNING; PLOT SPOILER ALERT

    Alejandro Amenabar directed a somewhat brilliant film entitled The Others (released 2001). It starred Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, in the days when he was still a serious actor. (There was also a substantial part from comedian Eric Sykes, who brought a surprisingly menacing quality to his character).

    The film is an atmospheric and tense thriller about a family hiding away in a large house, waiting for the return of their father from the war. The house has other, ghostly residents – The Others – and the plot appears to be a standard ghostly haunted house storyline, albeit very well told and acted.

    It turns out that ‘The Others’ are the living, and our family, led by the heroically nervous Kidman, are the apparitions, trapped forever in that house, being taunted by their memories, and waiting for a father who will never return.

    The question might be what is the point in the polls that The Others have to achieve before we realise that they are the real politics and we are the ghostly apparitions, trapped forever by our past, confined to wander in perpetual gloom, half of this world and half without, with nothing but dreams of past glories to sustain us in our endless, empty days.

  42. An interesting and thought provoking view, Alec.

    I think it will take some for of PR (even AV) to force us to make that distinction.

  43. Alec – nice analogy written like a true ‘other’

  44. @Lefty L

    I know you’ve been a consistent proponent of the argument that there are striking similarities between the politics of mid to late 70s and now and, while I’m a bit of a history is bunk man myself, your case is vigorously supported by a piece by Andy Beckett in today’s Guardian. His article, “Could Ed be Labour’s Thatcher?”, points to a number of interesting parallels between the two of them, not least the fact that Thatcher, throughout her period as Leader of the Opposition, consistently trailed way behind Callaghan in the polls in terms of “prime ministerial” qualities and personal approval ratings. This was the case right up to polling day in 1979.

    It’s worth a read and while I thought some of it came perilously close to flights of fancy, there were some interesting reminders from history that may serve us well now. One that particularly struck me was how light Thatcher was in terms of policy detail. Beckett comments that the preamble to the Tories 1979 manifesto read rather like one of Miliband’s better speeches in “its skilful intertwining of the feelgood and plain spoken, of populist generalisations and tantalising hints of radicalism, in its ambitious but shrewd attempt to turn ideology into “common sense….”

    Of course, and in fairness to Beckett he does highlight many of them, there are significant differences between the economic and political circumstances that applied in the late 70s to those that apply now and Miliband and Thatcher quite obviously had/have distinctly different views of the world. However, Beckett does strike a few chords for me. Thatcher’s enemy was the post war consensus, Miliband’s is the what she helped erect in its place, but in the sense that they were/are politicians determined to break the consensus, acting almost as insurgents, Miliband can at least learn from Thatcher’s methods if not her eventual policy prescriptions. Thought provoking stuff.

    So, an unpopular and largely scorned Leader of the Opposition travelling fairly policy-light into a General Election against a skilled, smooth and experienced Prime Minister? Is this ringing some bells somewhere!

  45. @Alec

    Christoper Eccleston, not Daniel Craig

    rgdsm

  46. Howard,

    Yeah I knew that the ECHR was separate from the EU but it was late at night and not my best posting. At the time my mind was a blank as to what it was called.

    For me at it’s worst the anti-europe feeling adds up to nothing more than “They’re not us” or “Britain is best”.

    There is a lot good about Britain but the idea that we are by intrinsically superior is hard to sustain yet people like to think of themselves as different. That is an emotional response.

    The main reasons I am a nationalist is that I think that a country like the UK with a dominant capital and region in the south doesn’t work best for outlying areas and that Scotland as a distinct country can better look after itself.

    I don’t see Scotland or Scots as anything special although I do think we have a distinct political culture, not better just different.

    I no more accept that Scotland is best than Britain is. That creates an odd situation for me in that I get accused of wooly romantic nationalism from Unionists when it is often them who have a romantic notion of Great Britain based on some idea of the Great in Great Britain.

    Britain is a fine country but so is Germany and France.

    Peter.

  47. The thing about Europe is that it’s a double-edged sword for Cameron. On the one hand, he can play to the euroscepticism of numerous voters. On the other hand, it highlights party divisions which are not so good for VI. The question really is… which of the two will have the greater effect on VI?

    The right appear to be forcing his hand so one might think he possibly thinks it’s a negative for him on balance.

    One does get the impression also that the repatriation of powers thing is more about squeezing more out of the workforce to the benefit of business than it is about things that might bother more of the voters.

    I do think Cameron might quite like to repatriate some powers for business, but more under the radar, without the spotlight on what it means for workers or on party divisions.

  48. The Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig movie was the children’s movie The Golden Compass.

  49. Carfew

    Yes, it is striking that the the powers the tories want to bring back are all about squeezing more out of workers – hardly a populist vote winner I would have thought? Also on the justice front – as a Lab MP asked Cameron at PMQs yesterday if he would keep the cross border arrest rights (not sure of the proper term) to allow repatriation to UK of criminals on the run, and DC refused to give that assurance – again not very populist.
    I guess it is all down to the spin on these things, squeezing more out of workers can be sold as freeing businesses from the bureaucratic chains of Brussels. The challenge for Labour and Lib Dems is to frame the argument in terms that work against the Tories – as they managed to do with the 1% Benefits increase cap.

  50. Alec

    That was a great film and an interesting analogy

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