Three new polls yesterday and this morning.

  • TNS-BMRB’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 13%(+1)
  • A new Angus Reid poll has topline figures of CON 27%(-1), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 11%(nc) – changes are from their last poll in November
  • While YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 9%

27 Responses to “New TNS-BMRB, Angus Reid and YouGov polls”

  1. Bit of divergence there, but Labour lead still looking pretty reasonable overall.

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  2. If we had those many everyday, then indeed the drawing up of ‘averages’ would be more appealing.

    I forget evrey time who prompts and who doesn’t – is there a table anywhere of who asks what?

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  3. ‘every’ I wish we could correct after posting – but not a complaint AW!

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  4. Dem’s with 11again? Dare we hope Howard, or would that be too audacious.

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  5. The Guardian:

    But the most interesting figure is in the YouGov chart (pdf),showing how voters rate the main parties on different issues. On “the economy in general”, when voters are asked which party would handle the problem best, Labour is now ahead of the Conservatives by one point (29% to 28%). In December the Conservatives were ahead by one point.

    According to the YouGov tracker (pdf), this is the first time Labour has been ahead on this measure since October 2012.

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  6. NickP – It isn’t actually very interesting, its unchanged for about 10 months.

    Con & Lab have been neck and neck on that question since just after the budget – sometimes Labour are ahead, sometimes the Conservatives are ahead, but they are invariably within the margin of error of each other.

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  7. Hi all, this is my first comment for since before 2010, but I check here most days.

    @Howard & @RiN Something I have noticed over the course of the past month or 2 is that the numbers of 2010 Lib Dem voters saying they would vote Lib Dem now has gone up from mid 30’s to lower 40’s, which started to happen when Leveson was announced.
    At the same time there has been a slight decline in those 2010 Lib Dems switching to Lab from around 42-44 to 35-37ish.
    So this suggests a swing back from Lab to Lib.
    However, there also seems to be a slight movement from 2010 Con voters to Lab from around 3ish% to 6ish%
    This seems to have meant overall Lab have stayed the same, Lib increased by 1-2% and Tories dropped by a similar amount, depending on Con-UKIP variation.

    For Labour it is probably better to eat into Tory votes than Lib Dems, for me, who is likely to be standing in a solid Lib Dem council seat in May, not so good.

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  8. Not much divergence across these three polls in terms of the range in VI for the Tories (27-31), Lib Dems (9-11), and UKIP (9-13), but quite a wide range on the Labour VI (37-44). Not quite sure why this might be considering nearly all of the recently published polls have them solidly in the low to mid 40s. Maybe the TNS/BRMB one is a bit of a rogue because 37% seems a bit on the low side for them, I have to say.

    We need a dreaded ICM poll to set the cat amongst the pigeons! Is there one due soon?

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  9. @ Anthony W

    “NickP – It isn’t actually very interesting, its unchanged for about 10 months.
    Con & Lab have been neck and neck on that question since just after the budget – sometimes Labour are ahead, sometimes the Conservatives are ahead, but they are invariably within the margin of error of each other.”

    True, and yet the conventional and received wisdom, perpetuated by our beloved commentariat (Andrew Neil, you know who you are!!) is that Labour are continuing to lag way behind the Government on who the public feel would best handle the economy. Indeed, it’s the pretext for most of the questioning that Labour spokesmen are regularly subjected to on TV and Radio: “Don’t you think it’s worrying that at a time of such economic turbulence etc etc that you still are less trusted than George Osborne and David Cameron on the economy?”

    Well it would appear that the picture is a little more nuanced than that after all, maybe not in all polls, but certainly in quite a few; including the gold standard of pollsters, YouGov!

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  10. @ Danny Sweeney

    If that is your first post since 2010 then maybe could we have a few more please? :-)

    This is something that had not even entered my mind (a slight switch of Lab back to Lib Dem and a slight switch from Con to Lab leaving Lab vote unchanged).

    It suprises me a little bit because although the Lib Dems have been more critical of the Tories recently I don’t see an issue where they have asserted or voted on traditional Liberal values that might inspire their voters back into the fold.

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  11. @SHEVII Thank you for your kind words.
    That’s just what I’ve picked up from checking the breakdown of Yougov polls, but we are talking probably less than 2% of the overall electorate in both cases. So would be statistically insignificant in anything other than a long accumulation of polls.
    I try not to read anything into individual sub-sections of polls, but if you look at each one, then over the course of 10 or so, I find you can see the odd, small, but meaningful trend.
    I’m sure someone with the time could produce meaningful statistics by doing this rather than just relying on memory as I have done.

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  12. Others being 10% on the other 2 and only 5% on YG stirkes me as a big divergence, any methologocal explanation for this, can’t all be sample variation surely?

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  13. Labour have a +9 advantage for Education & Schools.

    Michael Gove is widely touted in the media as being the success story of Cameron’s cabinet but the voters appear not to agree.

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  14. Amber – may have as much to do with the GCSE English debacle which reached most voters with Labour in Wales intervening and advocating the same in England as with Education policy.

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  15. David Cameron and Nick Clegg have formally agreed to “set aside” Cabinet collective responsibility over boundary changes, Downing Street has revealed.

    No.10 said the decision to suspend ministerial responsibility, agreed before a Lords vote yesterday, was “the first time it has happened under this Coalition”.
    ————–
    Why would DC agree to do this?

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  16. Crossbat – well, technically they are correct! If you ask the question as whether people trust Cameron & Osborne more than Miliband & Balls on the economy then C&O do have a lead, but not necessarily if you ask it as Con or Lab.

    Its one of those things that give different results if you ask it in different ways.

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  17. Amber – because otherwise he would have had to sack all the Lib Dem Lords ministers and the coalition would have broken down. It was not, as a previous Leader of the Lords once said, worth dying in a ditch over.

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  18. Mr Cameron’s hopes of using the Parliament Act to overturn the amendment suffered a further setback after it emerged the SNP would join Labour and the Lib Dems in opposing the measures.
    —————
    I’m wondering whether this is confirmed or just inferred from the SNP’s comment yesterday which wasn’t nearly as clear as this suggests (from Politics Home).

    The SNP comment yesterday left a tiny sliver of possibility that they might vote with the ‘Tories’ on merit & a higher probability that they might abstain from something which they consider to have been ‘a waste of time & a waste of money’. However, Politics Home are saying that the SNP will vote against.

    If this is correct & the SNP stick with their ‘no deals’ position, then it’s all over for the boundary changes unless there’s a LibDem rebellion in favour of the changes.

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  19. @ Anthony

    It was not, as a previous Leader of the Lords once said, worth dying in a ditch over.
    ———–
    Few things are…

    Thank you. :-)

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  20. If the main cause of seeming bias to Lab in current boundaries is the low turnout in Labour strongholds (so they appear to have more MPs for less votes) then making some seats more marginal might increase turnout and keep the seats red.

    As I’ve always said, it’s the reduction in numbers of the seats not the “equalisation” based upon numbers of registered voters that makes the new package untenable and more unfair.

    Next time out whoever is in power, keep the 650 and adjust the boundaries by all means.

    Labour will still have the advantage because they have more voters, more widely spread and where needed they’ll vote.

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  21. Sorry if it’s been discussed elsewhere (I’ve been busy the last couple of days):
    YouGov/EU poll –
    VI –
    Lab 38 (+22)
    UKIP 17 (nc)
    Con 27 (-1)
    Lib 12 (-2)
    Green 3 (-5)
    BNP 0 (-6)

    This compares with Comres, Lab 35 (+19), Con 22 (-6), Lib 8 (-6) and Survation with Lab 31 (+15), Con 24 (-4), Lib 11 (-3)

    So crude average gives us:
    Lab 35 (+15), Con 24 (-4), Lib 10 (-4)

    Most of Lab gains are from smaller parties, which may not actually be replicated in the proper European parliament elections, but if it does happen it’ll be a major PR boon for Labour – their best year since 1994, a short time before their landslide victory in 1997.
    I’m not so sure we’ll see such an incredible jump in Labour support – these polls seem to be massively underestimating support for minor parties.

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  22. “Lab 35 (+15), Con 24 (-4), Lib 10 (-4)”
    should read “Lab 35 (+19)”

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  23. Amber:

    If it was a jolly good ditch it might be worth at least having a go.

    Our right wing chums seem to be disappearing – is that a straw in the wind?

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  24. @ Paul C

    Our right wing chums seem to be disappearing – is that a straw in the wind?
    ————
    They’ll be back when Cameron gets his post-EU speech bounce. :-)

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  25. New thread :-)

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  26. Anthony W

    “It isn’t actually very interesting, its unchanged for about 10 months.”

    I think that’s very interesting that it is unchanged.

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  27. Amber

    The SNP would vote with the Tories – for a price.

    A pound of flesh

    Berwick

    TB to front the NO campaign

    Referedum leaders TV debates on SNP terms

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