We are a year and a half away from the European elections, but the recent rise in UKIP support in Westminster polls has brought some attention to them, meaning we are already seeing voting intention polls for the European elections. ComRes have an online European elections poll in the People tomorrow, and Survation had one in the Mail on Sunday last weekend. Whether they mean anything at this stage is a different question, but here they are for the record.
ComRes/People – CON 22%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 23%, GRN 5%, Others 8%
Survation/MoS – CON 24%, LAB 31%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 22%, GRN 6%, Others 6%
Both show Labour topping the poll – what we’d expect given their strong lead in the Westminster polls and the mid-term nature of the elections. What will get more attention is that both polls also show the Conservatives and UKIP closely placed for second place – Survation had the Conservatives narrowly ahead, ComRes UKIP narrowly ahead.
The other questions in the ComRes poll seem to show a slight movement towards support for the European Union since ComRes last asked them in October 2011. The percentage of people agreeing that EU membership was a costly mistake fell from 54% to 48%, people disagreed with the statement that they’d vote in favour of withdrawal by 42%-33%, when in October 2011 it had been evenly balanced at 37%-37%. I’ll write more about this tomorrow…
This weekend we are also due the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll and, assuming they are sticking to their current timetable, the fortnightly Opinium/Observer poll.
UPDATE: Opinium’s fortnightly poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 12%(-3) – Observer write up here.