This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun is here and has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. Once again, the Lib Dems remain in double figures.

Yesterday Opinium also put up an interesting article clarifying their methodology and pondering why it could be that they consistently show some of the highest levels of support for UKIP. First, it confirms that Opinium use two-stage prompting in their voting intention question, asking people if they’d vote Con, Lab, Lib Dem or Other, and then only giving the options of BNP, Green and UKIP to people who say other (this is the same as YouGov and in contrast to Survation, who prompt for UKIP in their main question).

Opinium’s guess seems to be that their higher UKIP scores are down to not politically weighting their sample. As regular readers will know, the majority of polling companies use some sort of political weighting. In most cases they weight their samples so that respondents’ recalled 2010 voting behaviour roughly matches what actually happened in 2010, with some allowances made for faulty memory, though YouGov instead weight using party identification. The two exceptions are Ipsos MORI and Opinium.

Ipsos MORI do not weight by past vote because they worry that the levels of false recall can change in response to changing public opinion, in particular they worry about people aligning their recollection of how they voted in May 2010 with how they’d vote now. Other companies like ICM and Populus acknowledge the reality of false recall, but think it is basically pretty constant and changes only slowly over time. In practice it means that MORI’s samples are sometimes more Labour inclined than those of other companies, and can be more volatile (although MORI would argue that this is genuine volatility that weighting by recalled vote is disguising).

Anyway, Opinium are the other company that do not politically weight and suggest in their article that this could be why they are showing a higher level of UKIP support than most other companies. This is certainly feasible. As I’ve written before, the two most obvious explanations for the difference between online and phone polls in terms of UKIP support is either interviewer bias (people are embarrassed to admit to a human interviewer that they are supporting a party outside the main three, less so to a computer screen) or if people who are online are more likely to vote UKIP than those who are not (or, of course, a combination of the two factors). If online panels do get a disproportionately large proportion of the sort of people who’d vote UKIP, then not using some sort of political weighting to control for this could easily produce much higher levels of UKIP support.


182 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 43, LD 10, UKIP 10”

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  1. Can I step in now and prevent a partisan “Labour was good”, “Labour was bad”. Suffice to say, opinions will differ, as they do amongst the wider public. Lets leave it at that

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  2. RICHARD

    Because I read that DC will give his speech in Holland because Mark Rutte will support his call for more powers and money to be returned to individual EU nations.

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  3. Alec

    “I think you’ve got to be very careful …. with Anthony’s comments policy”

    Oh, I dunno – they’re probably quite safe.

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  4. @ Colin, Alec

    David Cameron achieved a tenable position from Mrs Merkel. The UK committing to not having an in/out referendum in exchange for some repatriation of powers. Mrs Merkel took the bait & agreed that negotiation of treaties already signed might be possible. Then the switch. A UK in/out referendum would still be held thereafter!

    It now seems that David Cameron has over-reached. The EU ‘renegotiation trap’ which Cameron appears to have set for Merkel has a similar feel to the ‘welfare vote trap’ which Osborne set for Labour.

    The trap works, the prey is caught… except it’s a furious mongoose not a frightened rabbit which emerges when the cage is opened.

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  5. Amber

    You would have to be pretty stupid to imagine that merkle would ever act like a frightened rabbit.

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  6. OLD NAT.
    Thank you for your link.

    Northern Ireland protestants seem to feel, some of them anyway, that they are losing out to the catholic and nationalist ‘communities’.

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  7. @ Colin

    Because I read that DC will give his speech in Holland because Mark Rutte will support his call for more powers and money to be returned to individual EU nations.
    —————-
    I’ve read that Mark Rutte was not even aware that DC was planning to make a speech about the EU whilst in Holland never mind MR being expected to support what DC will say.

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  8. Btw

    Does anyone still believe that a brexit is not inevitable.

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  9. RiN

    No chance

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  10. Can anybody explain why the UK can’t leave the EU and rejoin the EFTA instead?

    Still have access to the EU single market and allow the EU to become a proper confederacy or federal state (which is where it’s headed anyway).
    If your goal is to ‘repatriate powers’ while retaining access to European markets.

    Surely also an easy referendum question to put forward.

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  11. Colin

    You note that all those countries have seen GDP “growth” decline over the past 2 years. We are alone in having seen no growth whatsoever. And we have had the sharpest fiscal consolidation.

    Do you not see a link?

    And that’s before we bring in the USA which had a much looser fiscal policy and has seen significantly better growth than any of the countries you mention.

    I am genuinely bemused by the continued insistence of the Right that fiscal stimulus cannot be countenanced. We have seen that expansionary fiscal contraction as celebrated by the Right in 2010 is a fairy story. But there is nothing on the Right to replace this.

    You mentioned Japan earlier. Let’s see what happens over the next 12 months as Japan chucks its lot in with the fiscal stimulus argument.

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  12. AMBER

    Thanks.

    I’m assuming this is reasonably accurate.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/11/cameron-merkel-eu-treaty

    There is a lot of positioning going on. You would expect that from both DC & AM.

    So whilst it is enjoyable to say we know that A or B has
    blown it/has no hope/is intransigent/ will have to concede etc-I hope & trust that we simply do not know-because serious leaders give nothing until they need to.

    Any other approach destroys any bargaining advantage which may emerge.

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  13. LEFTY

    @”We are alone in having seen no growth whatsoever. ”

    THe numbers I was looking at were from OECD. Their forecasts of countries with GDP decline forecast for 2012 included France, Italy, &Netherlands ( as well as those receiving Sovereign Debt support from IMF/EU/ECB )

    USA is interesting. It’s monetary stimulus has of course been massive-including State purchase of mortgage debt. I grant you apparent relative success over there-but keep reading of uncertainty.

    re @”I am genuinely bemused by the continued insistence of the Right that fiscal stimulus cannot be countenanced”

    I don’t know of anyone putting that argument-certainly not in this government. They have instituted fiscal stimuli through industrial policy, infrastructure spending & personal taxation. It’s mor ea question of proportion & targetting where political difference arises-particularly on the idea of “creating” jobs.

    Re Japan-yes it will be interesting to see if this addition to Sovereign DEbt will do what it’s predecessors did not over two decades.
    At least they actually need to build stuff now post the Tsunami & so presumably will see productivity gains.

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  14. TINGED

    THis is a critique of the EFTA route-though I don’t know enough to say whether it is fair & balanced :

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100022087/brixit-why-the-norwegian-model-simply-wouldnt-work-for-the-uk/

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  15. I see the EU referendum a bit like the Scottish Independence referendum.

    In that a In or No vote will weaken UK or Scotlands barganing position post referendum.

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  16. @ Tinged

    Can anybody explain why the UK can’t leave the EU and rejoin the EFTA instead?
    ———–
    Because Francoise says ‘non’???

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  17. Colin,
    It’s not the greatest argument against it – effectively that Britain wouldn’t be able to have it’s cake and eat it.
    That’s a shock, isn’t it?

    If we want a vote over EU regulations, we have to remain a full member, which involves accepting the direction that they’re going in.

    Or we can be part of the free trade area which involves accepting their regulations involving exports to the EU (since the right of refusal covers everything else), which is fair enough given that it’s their markets we’d be exporting to (exactly the same as if anybody wants to export to the UK).

    Or we can completely leave and hope for the best.

    But the article implies an argument that we should be able to have our cake and eat it – we should have a say on EU regulations but also the right to refuse them. Which seems a bit of a one-sided proposition.

    Amber
    Why would Francoise say ‘non’? It’d be the solution that would keep both sides of the argument happy – we’d have access to their markets without being a thorn in the side of their intended reforms.

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  18. Colin

    “I don’t know of anyone putting that argument-certainly not in this government. They have instituted fiscal stimuli through industrial policy, infrastructure spending & personal taxation. It’s mor ea question of proportion & targetting where political difference arises-particularly on the idea of “creating” jobs.”

    Fascinating. If you really accept that fiscal stimulus has a role to play and it is simply a question of targeting and proportion, then we are a long way towards having that grown up debate that has been missing since “Deficit Denier” became the defining motif of the age.

    We’ve come a long way in 2.5 years. Back then, people like Mike Hancock were screaming from the rooftops that expansionary fiscal contraction was going to save us. Now that you are telling us that this Govt is actively applying a policy of fiscal stimulus, can we now consign that expansionary contraction argument to the bin mark “Mumbo Jumbo”?

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  19. Errr. Matthew Hancock of course.

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  20. Imagine
    2015: Labour Win Election despite Cameron offering Referendum as they have offered One too!

    2016: 51% Vote to leave EU large votes to remain in Scotland and Wales.

    2016-2020: Huge outflow of wealth and inward investment from the City of London to Frankfurt. UK Unemployment rises by 2 million.Tories Blame the Labour Government.
    2020:Scotland and Wales declare UDI.
    2025 Campaign to Get UK back into Europe started by Nigel Farage.

    Just a thought

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  21. Colin

    The GDP decline point I was making was that we led the world into loss of growth from 2010 onwards. The rest of the world was still growing in 2011. Not us. But we’re still told that the problem was lack of demand from over the Channel.

    Of course, whether the problem is at home or in Europe, it is still one of lack of demand. And the fiscal contraction policies at home and in Europe have been equally disastrous in keeping demand depressed.

    Sooner or later the mood will turn. I wonder what it will take?

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  22. @Colin

    “Some of these-like Germany-weren’t “in a mess” at all in 2010. All of these have seen GDP growth decline from 2010 to 2012-including into decline for 2012 for some.”

    Where do you get your figures? Germany’s GDP has grown by 3.4% in the last 8 quarters, compared to a total of 0.5% in the UK.

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  23. I think Colin was saying that those countries’ saw a decline in the rate of growth. Which is correct. But what WE saw was more or less the total absence of any growth. Which is very different.

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  24. Lefty:

    “we led the world”

    hooooooooooooooooooooOOOORAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Oh………………… is that not good?

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  25. @ Tinged

    Why would Francoise say ‘non’? It’d be the solution that would keep both sides of the argument happy – we’d have access to their markets without being a thorn in the side of their intended reforms.
    —————–
    France does not mind the UK being a ‘thorn in the side of intended reforms’. The reforms are not to suit the member countries, the reforms are to placate ‘the markets’ regarding the euro. It will suit France perfectly well that the reform ‘can’ is kicked down the road indefinitely due to the UK veto.

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  26. Poll Alert
    Mike Smithson reporting ComRes poll for the European elections has Lab 35% (+19), Con 20% (-8), UKIP 23% (+6).
    This can be compared with Survation that had Lab 31 (+15), Con 24 (-4), UKIP 22 (+5).
    I can’t find any info anywhere else so no more detail than that.

    I thought that the Lab gains in the Survation poll were a little ridiculous (and it’s best result since 1994) – but ComRes has even larger gains for them.

    I still think that the lack of prompting for Other parties probably undermines the polls’ reliability (because of such a high combined result for Others in 2009 and even in 2004), but if the indicated result does occur, it’ll be a serious PR knock for the Tories (with Lab in first and pretty much equal with UKIP).

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  27. Amber (and others who didn’t notice)

    ‘Because Francoise says ‘non’???’

    Last time I looked Francois looked rather male to me. Or is it Mlle Hardy to whom you were referring?

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  28. @ Howard

    I’m a feminist, I just can’t help myself. Vive La France!

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  29. Comres/Sun People Euro Election voting intention poll: Lab 35% (+19 on 2009 vote), UKIP 23% (+6.5), Con 22% (-6), LD 8% (-6), Green 5% (-3)

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Sunday_People_European_Political_Poll_13th_January_2013.pdf

    rgdsm

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  30. TOH

    Take no notice of Alec’s admonition: I always enjoy your posts.

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  31. MARTYN

    Ta for the link. While wee sub-samples aren’t exactly meaningful! Tories behind UKIP in Scotland. :-)

    SNP 39% : Lab 31% : UKIP 13% : Con 8% : LD 7% Oth 2%.

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  32. NEW THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I dunno how Amber has the cheek to pocket her monitor money.

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