The last monthly poll of the year that was still outstanding, ICM for the Guardian, turned up on Christmas Day of all times. Topline figures were CON 32%(nc), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc) – the figures are all typical of ICM’s polling of late (the comparatively high Liberal Democrat level of support is methodological, and normally due to the reallocation of a proportion of don’t knows to the party they voted for last time, which usually produces a higher Lib Dem score and a lower Labour lead).

Depending on what TNS BMRB and Opinium are doing with their regular polls over the Christmas break, this may well be our last poll of the year.


324 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%”

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  1. Oops, double posted cos my original post momentarily disappeared!

  2. Steve C,
    Peter Bell I know has the luxury (if that is the right word) being in Newcastle of his vote being insignificant and I think you do in Norfolk.
    The question is what will disaffected 2010 LD voters do in Con/LD marginals; and to a lesser degree in Lab/LD marginals.

    I still suspect most will end up LD in LD/Con marginals to keep the Tory out.

    I agree with Amber about the Lab VI not the lead being the key measure – I hope for a 45+% genuine average (Statgeeks MAD for YG works for me) but doubt it. Personally, I would settle for staying above 40% all year and reaching 43-44% on the MAD every so often which gives us a good chance of being the largest party next time.

    Rob – re policy, just one thought that the extended austerity beyond 2015 writes Labours Macro-Economic policy for us imo. The Tories will say that the structural defecit is coming down and we will get down by 2017/18 don’t let Labour destroy our good work etc.
    Labour can credibly say this is too far to fast as demonstrated by the 2010-15 experience (their position of course others disagree) and we will take 5 years not 2 or 3.

    Sprinkle with some policies intended to show fairer burden sharing under Labour at a ‘managerial’ level and the framework is clear.

  3. @ Colin

    Surely that wasn’t the ‘real’ Peter Cairns who was so very rude to you?

    And I hope you had a nice Christmas.

  4. JIM JAM
    “Sprinkle with some policies intended to show fairer burden sharing”
    IMO EM and Labour generally aren’t into window-dressing, but will aim at informing and educating VI; so that burden sharing will, in EM’s predistributional measures, be coupled with improved access to more equal a living wage, e.g. in the strengthening of human resource development in industry and service trades and institutions, and in removing language and skill inequalities between communities arising through class and ethnicity.. The posh boys negative politics will, I believe, be kept up but alongside a modernising program, notably in removing unemployment differentials between communities, putting some substance into the people like you like us message.

  5. Amber:

    More to the point how come some posters can call Colin a nutter and I get moderated for calling some politicians “holier than thou” ???????????

    I’m asking you ‘cos AW never answers my questions to him.

    Maybe its regarded a s fair comment but I don’t think Colin is a nutter; what do you think?

  6. @ Paul

    LOL, I’m guessing Anthony is on holiday & isn’t moderating anybody just now.

    And I think we are all ‘nutters’ in our own sweet way. But it isn’t polite to single out one specific person & call them on it. (I really need my smileys!).

  7. It seems to me there is an absence of ‘issues’ (OK Paul?) to provide much poll movement. To this extent I think Colin Green is correct about non-movement poll tendencies but what if the world economy upheavals affect the UK economy disproportionately (I mean good or bad, but we all think bad, really, don’t we?).

    I don’t see other matters intervening before 2015, even if Obama decides to go and bomb a few Syrians (as an example).

  8. I disagree. The Labour lead over the Tories going forward means a great deal IMO. If, for example, despite Cameron announcing an in-out referendum the Labour lead over the Tories holds firm then Labour’s position heading into 2014 looks very good and many Tories will become seriously concerned. If, on the other hand, the lead falls to, say, 6 or 7 points – even if only momentarily – it will give the Tories a great deal more heart, and suggest that Labour’s lead may well be vulnerable during 2015 and a GE campaign.

  9. @PaulCroft,

    Use of certain words or phrases, whether they can be deemed harmless or not in a given context, can result in your posts being put in the automatic moderation queue. Providing links to other websites etc. does the same.

    As Amber says, AW probably isn’t even moderating this site right now. For what it’s worth, despite the inevitable and often extreme bias that is demonstrated from all sides on this site, I think he is extremely fair and unbiased in his analyses and the way he runs the site (and moderates). You just have to be aware of the automatic word/phrase moderation system.

  10. @Paul,

    I totally agree that Colin isn’t a nutter!

    The sad thing is that political websites really demonstrate to me that being a tolerant society or being tolerant of others will never be truly achievable because most people seem incapable of accepting others with different cultures//values/lifestyles/opinions. Even different political beliefs!

  11. AMBER

    Thanks.

    I assume so-teach me not to be nice to SNPites in future eh?

    Actually I assumed it was in jest.

    Yes I did thank you-and I hope you did too.

  12. @ Colin

    “Actually I assumed it was in jest”

    I saw it that way as well, although I wasn’t 100% sure. Probably just pub style banter. I’ve appreciated your posts on here- probably won;t agree on the politics but you make valid arguments.

  13. SHEVII

    Cheers!

  14. Am I the only person left in this country who doesn’t give a fig about someone’s background, financial status, schooling etc? For me, people should be judged purely (and solely) on their values and what they are like as a person. I personally hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure.

    Snobbery in all its forms is nothing more than vile bigotry IMO.

  15. Ambiv,
    The point about the Lab lead being less significant than the Lab VI is that Con VI will vary according to UKIP etc.
    I fully expect the Cons to gain 4% over Labour from UKIP falls in VI as the GE approaches and a Lab lead of 6-7 from 42-35/6 does not bother me if the Tories got a ‘Veto’ type bounce. 38-31 for a few months would bother me though.
    Also, as has been stated before, the LDs are not available as a realistic VI option for Tory 2010 malcontents in a way they were in the Thatcher/Major years (Alliance of course in part) and as these respondents who would never say either Lab or UKIP they are either DK or sticking with the cons suppressing any Labour lead. More on ICM due to DK reallocation which imo is fair were the Tory vote is concerned (should not be at 50% for the LDs though which is a different matter)

    The Tories failed to hold over 45% at any stage for a decent period 2005-10 hence no OM but regularly achieved the kind of Levels Labour has since the budget. The Tory lead was bigger with those VI numbers due to many 2005 Lab voters giving an LD VI, enough went back to Labour at the GE of course, enough to stop the Con OM.

  16. I thnk we all know the position Labour is in.Lack of policy means an easy target
    For the Tories,any detailed policy will be appropriated by a government which
    Seems to have run out of ideas.So the present policy is right.Let them make
    The decisions,then wait for the Election campaign to firm up policy.

  17. @ JimJam

    Yes, that’s almost exactly the point which I was trying to make. Once Labour have a steady 45% VI, there will be no easy ‘bounce’ available to gladden Tory hearts.

    The Tories would need to get some support directly from Labour’s 45% & that won’t be easy because, unless I’m mistaken, the Tories (with David Cameron as leader) have nothing to offer which wasn’t already offered at the 2010 election.

  18. A simple law my wife and I would vote for is every media report of a road fatality must be accompanied with a statement saying

    – Was wearing a seatbely
    -Was not wearing a seatbelt
    -Unknown if wearing a seatbelt

    My suspicion on raod daet / injuries the following year and consequent NHS saving being immense.

    And stuff ‘freedom of the press’ in this instance …

  19. @ Ambivalent

    I personally hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure.
    Snobbery in all its forms is nothing more than vile bigotry IMO.
    ——————-
    That’s a couple of rather sweeping statements, is it not?

    Hatred of groups of people who don’t measure up to your standards is the very definition of bigotry!

    So please reassure me: You were being ironic, weren’t you?

  20. Hi Anthony, I hope you had a nice Christmas. :-)

  21. @JimJam, Amber,

    If Labour polling stayed firm at 42 or more I would agree with you. My point is that if the Tories closed the gap to 6 or 7 or less, there is a fair chance that at least a few percentage points will be knocked off of Labour. Then there is the fact that a 6 or 7 point deficit wouldn’t be bad with more than two years to go, all things considered. it would give them a lot of hope.

    But for the record, I doubt very much that they will get such a bounce from an EU referendum announcement.

  22. CB11

    My reply to you was moderated-but I see your post was too.

    Thus we both disappear into cyberspace leaving small , unexplained traces of our conversation.

    I love it when that happens.

  23. @Amber,

    You can hate snobs just as you can hate racists/murderers. Saying you hate group X isn’t the same as saying you hate person Y who is part of group X. But I think you already know that (hopefully!)

    Just as you can hate bankers….politicians etc. Hate the sin and not the sinner and all that.

  24. @ Ambivalent

    I’m being pedantic but you did say that you hated snobs not that you hated snobbery; that’s why I though you might have been using irony to make a point.

  25. Amber:

    I think you are simply looking for logic – .and failing to find any

  26. @Amber,

    I said this:-

    “I personally hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure.
    Snobbery in all its forms is nothing more than vile bigotry IMO.”

    I didn’t say ‘I hate snobs’. I said ‘I hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure’. Therein lies the difference.
    Hope that helps.

  27. @Paul,

    Yeah, I think Amber was reading something that simply wasn’t there and then (ironically, some might say) judging ME based on it. To be fair, it is Christmas and the booze is probably flowing….I know it is for me!

  28. Ambi:

    You’ve lost me mate – but then I find the “hate” word one of the worst of the four-etter boys meself.

  29. Maybe it’s my current boozy state, but I don’t really see how saying ‘I personally hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure’ is particularly controversial or judgemental!

    Judging someone who makes such a statement and criticising them for it is kind of (ironically) judgemental, however.

  30. @Paul,

    Fair enough.

  31. Two thirds of Tory members think Labour will win the next election.

  32. @PaulCroft,

    “I am scared to respond. You can tell when the gaffer’s back ‘cos the post count drops instead of grows…

    Its reminiscent of ole Genghis Khan at his most extreme – and even he didn’t moderate at xmas.”

    By saying this, are you accusing of AW of being unfair and dictatorial? Just to clarify mate.

    I can’t say I’ve ever had any trouble posting in the past. Only when I add a link from another site.

  33. I think most people rightly make Labour favourites for 2015. The current government is unpopular, the way the electoral system currently works favours Labour etc. Add to that the fact that the government won’t be able to offer anything particularly exciting just before the GE (i.e. no typical pre-election sweeteners). And they are seen as out of touch.

    The only positive for the Tories are that Labour aren’t trusted at running the economy, and Balls and Miliband are no particularly liked by the electorate.

  34. ambi

    I am saying nothing of the sort. Just observing that while I was away the post count dropped – which can only mean one thing,

  35. @ Ambivalent

    I was making the point that hating snobs & hating reverse snobs doesn’t mean you are being even-handed.

    Hating snobs & reverse snobs is not the same as hating snobbery & its reverse. People have a variety of strands to their personality; does being a snob or its reverse over-ride all their other qualities & traits making them deserving of your hatred?

    Yours seems a very extreme position to take; or perhaps I am being very exacting with my interpretation.

  36. Ambiv – you are probably right that UKIP VI will stay higher next year – 7-9% so Labours lead narrowing would mean a Lower Lab share, 40-34 would not be good for Labour. The rule that Labs VI is the best yardstick still holds, therefore, imo.

  37. @Ann in Wales

    If I were Ed Miliband I’d be talking to Ken Clarke whose policy gave the Labour Party their biggest win.

  38. @ Paul C

    Two thirds of Tory members think Labour will win the next election.
    —————
    I saw that on ConHome. Were I a Tory, that would concern me; but perhaps the Tories believe that they have an electoral strategy which doesn’t require activists.

  39. @Amber,

    “I was making the point that hating snobs & hating reverse snobs doesn’t mean you are being even-handed.”

    But I didn’t say that ‘I hate snobs and reverse snobs’, as you put it. I said that ‘I hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure’ i.e. that they are both equally bad IMO. You are deliberately now misquoting me out context. I think you know this. Next time please quote the exact words I use.

    Like I said you are still judging me for supposedly judging others (which I wasn’t, I was merely making the point that all forms of snobbery are equally bad). Irony.

  40. @PaulCroft,

    Your previous post could certainly be construed that way. You certainly won’t be in AW’s good books, so I would be very careful before bandying about accusations of that nature.

    Of course, it is a possibility that you are moderated regularly because your posts are extremely biased and written in a very unfriendly manner. I wouldn’t know myself, but an intelligent guy like you must surely accept that possibility?

  41. @Amber,

    Anyway, rather than letting any bad feeling fester, I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on the last point.

  42. @ Ambivalent

    You hate snobs & reverse snobs in equal measure but by “hate” you don’t actually mean “hate” in its generally accepted sense; you are using it in its philosophical sense as articulated by e.g. Spinoza. Would that be a correct interpretation of what you intended to convey?

  43. @Amber,

    I said, and I quote my original posts:-

    ““I personally hate snobs and reverse snobs in equal measure.
    Snobbery in all its forms is nothing more than vile bigotry IMO.”

    i.e. that both forms of snobbery are equally abhorrent in my opinion. I can’t hate anyone I don’t know personally, can I?

    And, yes, snobbery is worthy of hatred. I come from the East End of London and am currently unemployed and have been for some time so I should know!

    Clear now?

  44. Jest it was and usually is, and as most people who have been here a while have sen it as such.

    I do however like most tend to forget how easy it is to misinterpret comments without all the social queues that come with personnel contact.

    As a rule of thumbI don’t do malice or malicious comments. If I disagree with something It wilted to be a long post addressing the argument. If it’s for fun I’ll try for a one liner….

    Usually neither works.

    But by and large if I disagree are argue the point if I am not bothered I’ll joke.

    Peter.

  45. Sorry for the miss spelling!

    more another evening of wine than my usual curse of the iPad.

    Got the game Diplomacy for Christmas and hadn’t played it in twenty years… Great fun and as good as I remembered. My 18 year old daughter fought my to a stalemate although after six glasses of wine when she was on lemonade I think I was more anestitised than defeated.

    Peter.

  46. @Peter,

    Yeah, I think you’re right. The problem with the Internet is that it’s so easy to misinterpret someone’s comments as being aggressive or confrontational, or to interepret what someone says out of context.

    I mean, I can’t obviously comment for Amber, but I usually tend to like/get on with Amber despite our political differences.

  47. It’s made worse by the fact that I find it difficult to pick up on social cues and stuff anyway because I am dyspraxic and have Asperger’s Syndrome.

  48. How many people would in an opinion poll agree that they themselves were snobs.

    And how many snobs would agree that they were?

  49. Ambi
    I didn’t think you were being offensive, but I suppose Aeneas was probably in trouble with his Greek aunties if he had had a few and went round saying “Timeo Danao et dona ferentes” at Christmas.

  50. Danaos, even

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