The last monthly poll of the year that was still outstanding, ICM for the Guardian, turned up on Christmas Day of all times. Topline figures were CON 32%(nc), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc) – the figures are all typical of ICM’s polling of late (the comparatively high Liberal Democrat level of support is methodological, and normally due to the reallocation of a proportion of don’t knows to the party they voted for last time, which usually produces a higher Lib Dem score and a lower Labour lead).

Depending on what TNS BMRB and Opinium are doing with their regular polls over the Christmas break, this may well be our last poll of the year.


324 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%”

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  1. Well,it would seem that IDS has kicked the hornets nest.What will happen next?I have no idea but I do feel that labour really do need to be quick out of the blocks here or the benefit scrounges/cheats etc,is really going to gain
    Traction,especially with a compliant press not adverse to this line of reasoning.

  2. Amber

    I assume your parents didn’t force you to share your goodybag but that it was out of your own free will which would be similar to personally donating money to charities like comic relief that work outside of the UK which in my view is fine, it’s when you force others to do it I think it’s wrong.

  3. The goody bag analogy breaks down because, the proportion of newcomers is actually very small and all the evidence suggests that the gifts they bring are worth more than the goody bags.

    A lot of the people who have been to the parties over the years think they are entitled to the goody bags and don’t even bother bringing gifts anymore.

    They are the ones who moan about the newcomers with gifts, because they think it’s not fair they bring better gifts that are better than theirs and are worried it will mean smaller goody bags for them.

    Peter.

  4. Peter, I’d love to see where you get your cost benefit analysis from, I don’t see how a newcomer getting a job is considered a gift when it means that someone else doesn’t get that job, you’ve just rearranged the deck chairs is all, instead of person A getting the job person B gets the job, the fact you then have to pay Person A unemployment benefits is also then a dampener.

    Immigration is a good thing I agree, we’ve benefited from it over the centuries, but you can have too much of a good thing, when I’m ill I take Aspirin, it’s good for you, but I wouldn’t take the whole pack at once because I’d get seriously ill.

  5. Last post of the year from darkest Wales.Apparently Satanism and witchcraft
    Are alive and well in Wales according to the Rev Aubrel who frequently has to
    Battle the evil eye during the course of his ministry.Alas,no sign of any of this
    Near Abergavenny but will keep you posted.A happy new year to everyone,,or as Colonel Harrison looked on his way to execution,as happy as he could be in the circumstances.
    ,

  6. Blwyddyn Newydd Dda

  7. Rev Aubel!

  8. Graham

    About a decade ago FM Jack McConnell said (without refutation or dispute) about a decade ago “There is no place in a modern Scotland for the word “illegitimate”.

    He was a teacher, a father and a decent man. SLAB could do with a few more like him.

    Someone who later became a conservative MP once tried to recruit me to the Young Conservatives. To see if I was a suitable sort of person he aksed me:

    “Would you trust a bastard?”

    He also asked about “a pure bred black man”,and “a half-caste”.

    The” right” answer was of course that the black man was maybe OK, but the others were born in, and had inherited, moral turpitude.

  9. @ MiM

    I think you’re at the opposite ends of an opposing spectrum. Forced is too strong a word but my mother’s expectation was that we’d share stuff. I suppose I could’ve done the ‘tax avoidance’ thing & eaten the lot before I got home but I didn’t mind sharing.

    When I think about it now, the gift that I’d take to the party probably came out of the family budget so it would’ve been selfish not to share the take-away goody bags.

    Actually, you’ve helped me unearth a really lovely memory. I went to my friend, Roddy’s 6th birthday & his mum gave me 5 little goody bags to take home because Roddy told her I was going to share mine with my brothers & sister!

  10. Amber, really glad I’ve helped you discover that memory, genuinely am :)

    I think I’m in the centre, but just the complete reverse of the current coalition lib dems, which explains why I prefer both Lab and Con to Lib Dem, because crudely speaking, if they have half left wing policies and half right wing, I have the same left/right balance, just the different options.

    At the moment they are taking the right wing view on the economy, in terms of slashing spending and cut backs and austerity etc, I support the opposing view, which is the left wing view of stimulating the economy to try and bring it back to life.

    But then on topics like immigration and aid, they support the left wing of lots of immigration and foreign aid, whereas I support what would be the more right wing view I guess, of saying we need to control it.

    I’m not opposed to immigration and aid as a whole,but I am when the UK is in such trouble.

    When times were good, I used to donate to Comic Relief and the homeless people selling big issue, but now that money has become tight and its hard to make ends meet, I haven’t gone to the bank and arranged a loan so that I can give to charity. Charitable spending was one of the things I cut back on. Does that make me a bad person in your eyes? Serious question, I’d like to know.

  11. @ MiM

    I got a bit literal there, when you were speaking metaphorically; sorry for side-tracking your debate analogy!

  12. We’ve just watched a film ‘Catch me if you can’ about the con man and forger. It sums up present USA politics and the best line in the film is as follows. At last, L de Caprio admits to his girlfriend who comes from a strongly religious family ‘ Listen, I am not a Lutheran, not an airline pilot, nor a doctor, nor a Lawyer’.

    She is aghast, she exclaims ‘you mean – you are not a Lutheran?’.

    Specially for Socal to brighten his new year,

  13. That’s fine Amber, it’s brightened my day to know that I’ve brightened someone else’s day (helping you rediscover that memory)

  14. DaoDao

    Blair didn’t understand devolution, and I don’t think he does now. He did understand (it certainly wasn’t difficult) that Donald Dewar knew what he was talking about, so it must have been the easiest decision of his premiership to put Donald in the Scottish office.

    George Robertson said it would “see off the nationalists”. Can somebody tell me how that was supposed to work and how its going?

    Tam Dalyell said it was a motorway to independence without any exits.

    Donald’s aim was to create a model (PR, unicameral etc) for the reform of Westminster as well as good governance for Scotland.

    It has worked well with three kinds of government.

    To my personal knowledge Donald Dewar was arguing for devolution more than 44 years before it happened and THAT’S BEFORE TONY BLAIR WAS EVEN BORN!

    It has absolutely nothing to do with English history and a geat deal to do with Scottish history and the Scottish enligtenment.

    It has nothing to do with TB’s catholicism, and much to do with the leader of the Disruption, Rev.Thomas Chalmers, whose complete works [ex libris Donald Dewar] are in the next room as I write.

    You could hardly be more wrong if you tried.

  15. @ MiM

    This might surprise you; I am not really into charity. I think that the tax exemption for charitable giving is wrong & getting rid of it was actually one of Osborne’s budget proposals which I agreed with – then he U-turned on it, so I was able to say the entire budget sucked! There’s always a silver lining. ;-)

    I do buy the Big Issue, though. Often multiple copies. But I can afford it & I don’t see why people should feel guilty about not buying it, if they are just making ends meet themselves!

  16. Since I’ll be out for dinner when the New Year arrives in the “real world”, as opposed to here where they wilfully insist on running 5 hours late, I’ll wish you all a Happy New Year now.

    Since many political hopes and dreams of different people are contradictory, I’ll avoid the banality of wishing that they work out for most of you.

    On a personal level, however, have a great 2013 everyone.

  17. Amber

    Yes it does surprise me that you’re not into charity, mind if I ask why?

    As for tax exemptions, it should simply be you don’t pay tax on what you give away.

    So in a very simple economy, if you earn £20k gross the gov takes 20%, £4k so you are left with £16k net. If you then give £1k to charity, then they should see it as you only earnt £19k gross, and so take away £3.8k leaving you with £15.2k net.

    You shouldn’t financially benefit from giving to charity I quite agree.

  18. @Ann in Wales

    “Apparently Satanism and witchcraft are alive and well in Wales…….”

    It’s interesting that you should says this because I too had heard some worrying stories that the Tories were enjoying something of a political recovery in the Principality!

  19. @ MiM

    Three reasons:
    1. In the past I have been on the audit team of a couple of big name charities. Their spending on salaries, offices, travel etc. was, IMO, unacceptable when spending other people’s charitable gifts. Ethics prevent me from even hinting at which charities it was but it put me off giving money.
    2. I accidently overheard charity marketing people discussing a particularly ‘distressing’ advert. “This’ll separate the widow from her mite” they said, to general glee & applause.
    3. I found out that the people who get you to sign up to charitable direct debits in the street aren’t volunteers. They get paid the 1st 6 months or even a year of all the money which they get people to give by direct debit. But they don’t tell people that when they are gathering their signatures. I think that’s very wrong. And lots of charities, large & small, were all doing it.

    I take an even tougher line than you on tax deductions for charity. I don’t think there should be any deduction. If people want to give their own money away, fine. I don’t see taxes as being their money; I see it as being our money.

  20. All this talk of witchcraft in Wales are we sure the good reverend didn’t just simply get confused watching the final ever episode of Merlin on Xmas eve?

    Pagan/Wiccan is one of the few religions I’d have any time for if I were to become religious.

    Amber, I know what you mean to some extent, Battersea Dogs home, the facilities look very plush, the offices have had no expense spared, and some of the suits I saw people wear must have cost a pretty penny or two.

    As for the tax on charities, that’s an age old debate, whether charitable money, should be from gross or net.

    I know there is a dispute among the christians that tithe, whether they have to give 10% of their net income, or 10% of their gross.

  21. Labour have been quite effective over the Christmas break with quick responses to Cameon’s “Right track” New Year message (out-of-touch), and IDS’s comments about fraud and “payment error” in family credit (it made work pay).

    Looking back at one company with whom I had dealings, those who worked long hours at the production end were not being paid enough to support a family, while the management level and above took large amounts of renumeration… so the state was topping up those on the lowest incomes who had to contend with higher living costs etc, without recourse to effective wage bargaining. You could say as a side effect the state was also indirectly subsidising some lavish lifestyles/profit taking at the top.

    That kind of redistribution has its merits, taxation was having to take up the slack because of poor employment practice and other aspects of rip-off Britain.

    Labour’s new idea of “predistibution” in theory looks fairer, but in the meantime we wait to see the actualité of IDS’s plan to make work pay.

    Happy New Year btw.

  22. Since it is approaching the New Year where you guys are, I just wanted to wish all of you a Happy New Year. May 2013 be healthy and happy for all of you and better than 2012. Thanks for making this such a fun and welcoming place to spend time and chat politics online. :)

  23. Cheers Socal and all the best to you and almost everybody else [I exclude Graham only]

    Paul.

  24. Happy New Year to all. Lang may yer lums reek!!!!

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