We have two new telephone polls tonight, both of which show solid advances for UKIP at the expense of the Conservatives. ComRes in the Indy has topline figures of CON 31%(-4), LAB 41%(-1), LD 10%(nc), UKIP 9%(+3). This is the highest ComRes’s telephone polls have shown UKIP, although as with the ComRes online poll at the weekend, it is helped by a tweak to ComRes’s methodology to treat minor parties in the same way as the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats when it comes to turnout.

Meanwhile Populus’s poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 29%(-6), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 10%(+5), again the highest they have shown UKIP (indeed, it is the highest any telephone poll has shown them). Changes are from the previous Populus poll back in October, as they didn’t conduct a November poll.


62 Responses to “New ComRes and Populus polls”

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  1. PAULCROFT

    Haud yer wheesht, I’ll gie ye a skelpit lug.

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  2. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Lang may yer lum reek!

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  3. One little point about the ComRes poll. I think Anthony is overestimating the effect in saying that UKIP are “helped by a tweak to ComRes’s methodology to treat minor parties in the same way … when it comes to turnout.” If you look the ComRes tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_December2012.pdf

    (pdf page 7)

    you can see that, unusually for a minor Party, more UKIP supporters (78%) say they are 10/10 likely to vote than any other Party. So the effect of adding in the 5-9/10 voters at reduced weighting will not be as great as you might think (though I do think it is good practice).

    The high intention of participation rate may be due to the age profile of those that UKIP attracts with it slanted very heavily towards older voters, who have greater certainty about voting. Though it didn’t show up in the previous Indy poll (66% – less than Con etc), where the figures also suggest that the methodology change may have happened before then.

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  4. UKIP’s anti-EU stance & many of their other policies are approved of by the right leaning media. This is their great advantage as a 3rd Party compared to the LDs who did not have that support.

    Lynton Crosby, the so-called strategy wizard, achieved the results he did mainly because he had large sections of the right leaning media completely on-side. It’s widely believed that the London Standard free-sheet was essential in the Boris for Mayor campaign & he wouldn’t have won without it.

    So, this is about the media flexing their muscles. Some of the media are using the UKIP thing as leverage against press regulation, IMO. ‘See what happens when you lose our support’, is the message. I think support for UKIP will fall away, once the press regulation issue is settled & the Mail, Sun, Telegraph etc. get back to being Tory cheer-leaders.

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  5. Paul Croft,
    mine’s not just a wild opinion.

    Athough non-partisan I’m active in local political circles and have met all the local Green activists and the whole UKIP membership – which isn’t difficult considering how few they are.

    UKIP can just about muster enough members to stand in every constituency in the whole county (actually their organiser told me last month they have 12 paid-up members – it was 20 in 2010, but several died helping them reduce their average age to 65). He asked me if I’d join and stand for them, but I said I prefer to stay outside the fray.

    Greens meanwhile do better, but from a population of nearly 1m they have roughly 60 members. However I wonder about the sustainability of even that number considering most are concessionary.

    To be frank, with those dire participation levels neither are real challengers and as a result I worry about our national democracy. Their poll ratings must be almost completely comprised of protest feeling and hugely volatile as a consequence. I wouldn’t rely on them to win any significant votes at the ballot box. So strip them out of calculations, start again and you’ll be closer to actuality.

    I’m really not surprised UKIP are bouncing, it suits a spectrum of agendas to promote them. Just one more way to game the system.

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  6. Roger – it’s fairly easy to work out roughly what it would have been on ComRes’s old system – this one would have been

    CON 32%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7%

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  7. Here’s the link for Lord Ashcroft’s UKIP Poll commentary & access to the tables.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/12/the-ukip-threat-is-not-about-europe/

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  8. @Amber Star

    I think that if parts of the right wing press are doing so, they don’t understand public opinion is not a tap they can turn on and off. UKIP’s got it’s boost now, and will do what ever it takes to keep themselves in the press. Negative reporting will only keep their name highlighted considering UKIP’s vote is basically “the malcontents with modern society”. After all, this is the party that’s still against Gay rights. A news article about how awful UKIP is for being against Gay Rights isn’t going to do a lot to their polling when people mainly already know that.

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  9. @ Jay Blanc

    Indeed. We have seen this with the media before. They unleash something which they cannot later put back in its box!

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  10. I find it odd that all these old tories hanker after the glory days of the 1950s, when the tory party was actually moderate and almost social democratic in contrast to the modern party.

    MacMillan’s – even Churchill’s – politics would repel them now. They don’t realise how far they have drifted to the right, perhaps, and have false memories of the past.

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  11. The LDs are a dustbin so it’s not surprising if they are leaking protest votes to UKIP aswell

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  12. There are other ways to deal with difficulties wih the EU.

    The yellow bits of the map are very much the work of one hard working and effective minister. Look where Moray is.

    Unknown to London media, unrecognised in a Glasgow supermarket, a celebrity in a farmers market and a hero in a fish market. The biggest catch isn’t fish, it is in SNP votes.

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/fisheries05122012

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