Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out this lunchtime and has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 35%(+3), LAB 44%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 7%(+4). The poll shows a shift back towards the Conservatives, but this will largely be a reversion to the mean after last month’s slightly wacky sample. Meanwhile the 7% for UKIP is the highest MORI have shown them since the general election, although their highest ever from MORI was 8% back in 2009.


117 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 35, LAB 44, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. Robin,

    Thatcher was replaced with an ostensibly more centrist figure who appealed to the centre ground. If DC goes he would be most likely replaced by someone more right wing which may help get a few more UKIP back than otherwise would be the case but won’t win over any centre ground voters.
    Of course Boris may get a personal vote dimishing the further away from London the seat gets but even this is not assured.

    IMO – DC baring illness or major scandal will lead the Cons in to the next GE.

    Ambiv – I agree that GB got an initial boost which was large until the GE that never was but still some remaned late in 2007.
    The big difference with previous cycles is the coalition and that many moderate Tories who would never vote Lab are sticking with the Tories in polls as the LDs are not an option. Most would have gone back Cons at the GE anyhow but it means the Cons recovery will probably not be as large as in previous parliaments when in Government.

    The key number remains Lab vote share which is settling at 41-43% in YG at least; and. how much of this if any will be eroded before election day.
    Enough imo to stop a Lab OM but not enough to produce a Con OM so another hung parliament beckons.
    I have a sneaky that Cons will get more votes but Lab more seas posing the ‘largest mandate’ question for whoever is leading the LDs.

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  2. Oh and the latter’s Gov Approval of -71 is a bit of an outlier versus the average for the last 30 polls of -47.1

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  3. Labour will get a reasonable majority I think…The split of the right is increasing every day and in FPTP,Labour hold the cards.

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  4. Its really pointless looking at the polls from pre 2010 to predict the next election.

    All of those elections were based on voters swinging between labour and the torys – so you would have fierce battles over the centre ground and a fair amount of volatility as these voters were lukewarm either way.

    But the lib dem collapse changes all that. Labour dont need to win over a single tory voter from 2010 to win quite comfortably.

    The tories only hope is that the lib dem voters who have deserted the lib dems for labour since 2010 come back to the lib dems. But this ignores that these voters were voting lib dem as an anti-tory alternative to labour – and often because they saw the lib dems as more left wing. Also many of the lib dem voters of 2010, were disgruntled labour voters. These are NOT the fickle, centrst swing voters who normally decide elections.

    Basically the left of centre split that allowed the tories to dominate the 80s and Blair to push labour ever rightwards is over.

    The tories really really cant win barring a miracle. Even if they somehow match their 2010 performance, they will still be behind labour.

    As for them increasing their vote (which almost never happens for incumbents – and certinaly never more thatn marginally) I keep asking this question – who is going to vote tory in 2015 who didn’t vote for them in 2010?

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  5. The Tories can win in 2015 but not with Cameron IMO

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  6. @ Paul C

    David Cameron:
    Net rating Highest +47 Jun2010; Lowest -31 Apr/May 2012

    Ed Miliband:
    Net rating Highest +20 Sep2010; Lowest -53 Jan 2012

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  7. Ed M is doing interviews with magazines mainly aimed at women. He has the most photogenic kids of any UK politician ever. IMO, of course, because I don’t think there’s been any polling on this!

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  8. @smukesh

    How? Do you think that they will do better than 2010?

    And that labour will not do better than there 29% of the vote?

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  9. @AMBER STAR

    Agree with you…His sons are very cute.

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  10. @REGGIESIDE

    In 2010, a million votes which were destined for the Tories ended up with the Lib Dems with the launch of big society and Cameron`s poor debate performances.

    With a good economy and if they make progress on Immigration and Welfare,Tories have a good chance of atleast holding on to their 2010 support plus add the above mentioned million votes.And if the swing voters are worried about Labour`s return,then they also could decisively back the Tories aka 1992.
    But so far Cameron and Osborne haven`t demonstrated the competence required and their attempts to woo the swing voters seem to be alienate their traditional voters.

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  11. “Vote for me, my sons are cute.”

    Sigh.

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  12. There’s been a rising trend in Lib Dem VI over the last month or two which is in stark contrast to the polldrums of the last two years or so, from YouGov

    This week has seen a 12 and four 10s
    Last week gave two 11s, two 10s and a 9
    the week before had an 11, a 10 and three 9s
    the week before that, a 10, three 9s and an 8
    before that, a 10, two 9s and two 8s
    and before that three 9s and two 8s

    Looking at the 2010 LD voters, the shift seems to have been from DK to LD, followed by a Lab to DK shift. It seems to follow the change to greater differentiation between Con and LD, including separate statements on Leveson and clear Lib Dem wins in the Autumn Statement.

    One caveat: It mirrors a similar but smaller shift in November last year that reversed in January. Can Clegg & Co. sustain the changing mood of former LD voters?

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  13. @smukesh

    Only twice have incumbent governments increased their vote share and then only marginally and within 6 months of a general election – thus exploiting the ‘halo’ effect.

    Now all but the most partizan tory would have to concede that this government has not been a roaring success, particularly on the economy but also on the question of competence.
    On top of that they have UKIP nibbling away their support from the right.

    Given all that it would be a major achievement for them to equal their 36% they got last time. (And remember that that deeply unimpressive 36% was against the most open of open goals and was the best tory performance in a GE since 1992.)

    But even if they do match 2010 (very big if) then they have to rely on the lib dems recapturing a lot of the support that they have leached to labour – again a very tall order.

    Even if the labour poll rating collapses to the mid 30s – they will still be the biggest party because of their advantage in the FPTP system.

    Now the polls have been remarkably static for a long time. The lib dems have been flatinling around 10% for two years, whilst labour has been polling in the low 40s with next to no variation for about 18 months (barring the EU veto ‘bounce’).
    The tories have been steadily in the low 30s.

    This lack of volitility suggests very much that positions are fairly hardened. The only major movements are between UKIP and the tories – and I doubt that UKIP will get more than 5% at a GE.

    Over the past few weeks however, their are a few signs that the lib dem vote has nudged up fractionally – but its come at the expense of the tories.

    Next GE prediction – Tories 34% Lid dems 15% Labour 39%. (and Im probably being too generous to the coalition parties there).

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  14. Amber:

    Thanks, and that is an enormous turnaround, as I had assumed. Momentum is clearly with EM and it will be increasingly difficult for DC to defy gravity.

    Generally the arguments re LD voters previously being more left than right wing has been rehearsed many times: I can’t see how anyone can see beyond this critiocal point and it is close to impossible for the Cons to get an overall majority and unlikely that they can resist a Labour one.

    IMNSHO

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  15. New fred.

    I’ve taken over as new fred monitor from Amber as she’s not dependable

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  16. @ Paul C

    LOL (the dear departed smileys are, by me, greatly missed)

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  17. SMILEYS
    Come back, all is forgiven.
    (Though I don’t myself adhere to you – like Paul on God – I deeply respect and would defend the beliefs of those who do.)

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