This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 10%, UKIP 8%. After a couple of weeks of YouGov polls showing increased Labour leads, the last few polls look as though they may be settling back towards the 10 point leads that have been the norm for most of 2012.
Meanwhile the weekly TNS BMRB poll has particulatly unusual figures – CON 26% (-2), LAB 41% (+1), LD 8% (-2), UKIP 16% (+4). The UKIP figure is the highest they’ve recorded in a poll. I would advise the usual caution towards any poll showing strange or outlandish figures – sure, they could be the start of a trend, but more likely it is normal sample error. Clearly there has been a genuine increase in UKIP support over recent weeks that has been picked up across polls from many different companies… but this particular poll looks likely to be an outlier.