This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 43%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%.

I’m always wary of reading too much into small movements in polls, but four of the last five YouGov polls have had Labour leads of 12 or more, so it is beginning to look as if the Labour lead has increased slightly. This seems to be down to a drop in Conservative support and an increase for UKIP, rather than any shift in Labour support, presumably due to the publicity UKIP have recieved in recent weeks from the Rotherham adoption case, the speculation about a Conservative-UKIP pact and their strong performance in last week’s by-elections.

There is also a new poll by Angus Reid, whose British polls are becoming increasingly infrequent. Topline figures there are CON 28%(-1), LAB 42%(-3), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 11%(+3). Changes are since March, the last time Angus Reid did a British voting intention poll. The fourteen point lead for Labour, while large in comparison to other companies, is actually a drop from Angus Reid’s previous poll – for whatever reason, they tend to show by far the largest Labour leads of any pollster.


378 Responses to “New YouGov and Angus Reid polls”

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  1. Alec

    “I recall several posts by Anthony showing how people can happily back a policy, but then oppose it when they find out the party they don’t like supports it.
    __________

    In Scotland this phenomenon is called “SLAB”

  2. ALEC

    @” An interesting question would be what people like @Colin might say about a badger cull had the same policy been proposed by Labour.”

    Perhaps you would be interested in the answer then.

    I am no acolyte of the UK farming lobby in general. The destruction that CAP driven industrial farming has wreaked on farmland bird populations, not to mention the habitat afforded by ancient hedgerows , ponds, field corners , small copses etc, over some decades has been little short of criminal.

    However, the destruction of cattle with tb & recompense to farmers is a significant cost to the taxpayer, and a recurrent hammer blow to good farmers who have spent their lives building pedigree herds.

    Badgers are not endangered . The last attempt at population count was in 1997 when 50k social groups were thought to exist-a 77% increase over the previous decade.
    THe current population could be anywhere from 300k to 500k animals.

    Anecdotally, badger road kills in my area ( East Sussex) are ubiquitous. The nationally important nature reserve where I volunteer has installed kms of fencing tp protect ground nesting bird populations of national & international significance. DEspite electrifying this fencing, badgers ( and foxes) breach the protection frequently. New sets appear with regularity. Our task over the last six months has been to lay a horizontal netting barrier at the fence bottom in a last ditch attempt to stop each summer’s slaughter of chicks.

    I think the anti-cull movement has a distinct flavour of anthropomorphism about it-nice cuddly thjing with a pretty face. These animals are big heavy brutes which kill indiscriminately-like most of nature in the wild. I dislike & mistrust this sort of “nature lover”. Nature Conservation in the round requires a level head, an absence of emotion & a willingness to choose priorities & make choices on the basis of data.

    My feeling about badgers is that there are too many of them, so a cull which happened to reduce tb in cattle & save the taxpayer money would meet with my approval. I stronglty suspect that the antis would still be anti -even if the evidence were categorically against them.

    The study by Wellcome TRust I posted upthread looks very interesting to me. It demonstrates gene transfer & strains of tb held essentially in common between cattle & badgers in discreet areas. The study website includes this :-

    “”This study provides the first direct evidence of the close relationship between tuberculosis infections in cows and local badgers, at a very local scale,” explains Professor Rowland Kao, a Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellow who led the study jointly conducted by the University of Glasgow and the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute in Northern Ireland. “However, only with a larger study might we be able to quantify the extent and direction of transmission between cattle and badgers and reliably inform disease control policies.”

    I hope they proceed to the larger study soon.
    .

  3. OLDNAT

    @”Including revenue from G4 licensing (which hasn’t happened yet) in the current year’s figures certainly contributes to “surprisingly good numbers”.

    It has certainly helped.

    As I understand it Ofcom will hold the auction between Jan & March next. Mr.Chope of OBR has explained the basis on which his estimated revenue is calculated & it appears to accord with most cautious estimates of the outcome.

    The annual Autumn Statement, and Budget are full of numbers for things which “haven’t happened yet”-like the precise quantum & timing of tax revenues. A large amount of CT & IT tax is collected following the January assessment notices from HMRC.

    It would be bizarre to suggest that a CoE should not make a best forward estimate of those revenues in every Budget.

    This is a one-off certainly. But it is not without predecessors or precedent in Budget treatment.

    Assuming my understanding that this auction is fixed for this fiscal year is correct, there seems no reason whatever to omit it from the year’s revenue forecasts-provided the estimate is prudent & sensible.

  4. Colin

    I guess you don’t buy into the “never mind the evidence, look at this cute, idealised picture of a bipedal badger”.

    Kenneth Graeme; arch propagandarist of all things Mustelidae.

  5. @Amber Star
    I’ve just listened on PM to Osborne claim that the impact of his measures is precisely the opposite of their actual effect, that is that he’s helping working people whilst clobbering the well off. He’s a bit exposed, isn’t he, once those analyses of the full impact become widely available over the next 24 to 48 hours? By then, the media will have ceased to take his claims at face value and that’s when the hostile reaction will start to be apparent.

  6. COLIN

    So we agree that adding that in, helped the figures along nicely.

    As did the timing of the transfer of QE money from the BoE to the Treasury.

    Politics includes the art of manipulating numbers to make your stance look good. Nothing unusual in that.

  7. PETER CAIRNS

    @”But cutting corporation tax by an extra 1%, Google, Amazon and Starbucks will be avoiding millions less next year!”

    I the case of Starbucks, it now looks as if they will save 1% on a UK tax bill of significance which actually exists, rather than save 1% on a notional tax bill which doesn’t.

    One up to Margaret Hodge & her Committee-let’s hope GO is successful in his international effort to stop this cross border profit transfer & that Amazon & Google too can have a real 1% saving on a real tax bill.

    It is worth noting that the biggest single item in the Autumn Statement list of tax changes is the new deal on tax “repatriation” from SWitzerland-£4 bn over the last three years of this Parliament.

  8. OLDNAT

    Yes we do agree.

    It isn’t too hard to understand that he needs every penny he can get at present.

  9. ALAN

    For children & adult entertainment -fine.

    For practical Conservation & farm management-no.

  10. @colin – ” I stronglty suspect that the antis would still be anti -even if the evidence were categorically against them.”

    I suspect that is quite correct, as is the data from your quoted study showing the close link between TB within the two populations. The difficulty is not whether there is such a link, but on which population initiated the infection. The best evidence we have for this, is that it’s the cows that transport and transmit the disease first, effectively creating the reservoirs for reinfection.

    There is a good deal of anthropomorphic thinking on all things wildlife, which really doesn’t help sound policy formulation. Unfortunately in this case, the ignoring of sound science by the pro cull lobby just hands a massive gift to those on the other side who might be equally happy to ignore science in other areas of dispute.

  11. @ Old Nat

    Politics includes the art of manipulating numbers to make your stance look good. Nothing unusual in that.
    ————————–
    Indeed. But the independent OBR are presented to the public as politicians.
    8-)

  12. Colin,

    Is that the same Margaret Hodge who is steadfastly refusing to give straight answers about her own tax arrangements with regards to Stemcor!

    Peter.

  13. Good Evening All. Freezing here Catching up on the day’s news.

    There is a ‘tweet’ moaning that the poorest 10% of the population will be the biggest loser from the Budget. Is this true does anyone know?

    Secondly, has anyone any news about our future Queen’s health?

  14. Chris,

    Stephen Fry is fine!

    Peter.

  15. CHRISLANE1945

    Just phone the hospital with a really bad royal accent, and they’ll give you the details of Kate’s treatment. :-)

  16. Labour had good propagandists – in 1929!

    https://twitter.com/mikeprescott/status/276376836093652992/photo/1

  17. @ Peter Cairns

    Is that the same Margaret Hodge who is steadfastly refusing to give straight answers about her own tax arrangements with regards to Stemcor!
    —————————–
    It must be a different MH. Because the Margaret Hodge who is giving Starbucks, Amazon & Google a hard time has repeatedly given a straight answer to the question, as has Stemcor.
    8-)

  18. I am also a member of a Wildlife Trust and the RSPB and there is no evidence that badgers cause any harm to ground nesting birds. In fact it is farming methods destroying their habitat which is the major problem.
    Badgers are wrongly scapegoated as being the vector for the spread of Bovine TB where the real cause is lax bio security and overcrowding of cows in poor conditions.

  19. @Chrislane1945

    There’s a real terms cut on all benefits other than Disability and Pensions for the rest of this parliament. And disability only gets a inflation rise, for the first time not mirroring the Pension rate increase. Additionally, benefits that pensioners and the disabled also claim, such as Local Housing Allowance, are also now locked into a real terms until the end of parliament.

    Not only has this all come at the cost to the lowest 10%, while handing further tax cuts out, but this is messing around with the “automatic stabilisers” of the economy that have kept some money flowing into retail. I expect the UK to receive a severe economic shock in April. Possibly worse the 2008 one. There will be further Woolworth like collapses.

  20. I’m not anthropomorphic myself but surely a good idea, which would save money on both culling AND police, would be to give the little rascals proper helmets and at least let them police our rural villages?

  21. I believe that it is only disability benefits such as DLA… not benefits paid to disabled such as the now infamous ESA, anyone switched to ESA from IB for instance if the IB was worth more than existing ESA then the recipient will still get the old IB rate… but and there is a but I believe it may be frozen until ESA catches up… in some instances this means the recipient will probably never get an increase…

    So really quite bad…

  22. @ Paul Croft

    “I will say 29% is the lowest figure they’ll hit on YG”

    27th April – 29%
    10th May – 24% (Labour supporters would love to see that on said date in 2015)

    There’s you have it. Obviously the latter was an outlier (Others had 15% that day), but the record has been set.

  23. …in fact that’s a typo on my part. That’s what comes of having a spreadsheet that allocates all the rest of the VI to ‘Others’. Siad day was 34 for Con.

    So the 27th April – 29% it is. :)

  24. BBC Look North has just reported that the upgrading of the rest of the A1 to motorway status as announced by Osborne today actually refers to projects already agreed and underway.

    If this is true, I suspect that it will be one of many “economies of the truth” contained in this afternoon’s statement.

  25. Colin
    ‘My feeling about badgers is that there are too many of them’.

    Ah, those feelings, so important to VI.

  26. Having listened to the debate this afternoon about the economy once again not much difference between either side, which ever side was in power would have been blown off course by the economic winds from the EU both sides will have to cut the welfare bill and so on all there really arguing about is what perception of economic competence the public swallow, not what the differences if any are.
    Of course when you listen to Osborne or Balls you would think the differences were huge but really it’s all froth.

    The only thing I would suggest to EM in the spirit of non partisanship of course, is if he wants to make absolutely sure of winning the next GE he does two things, stop his very accomplished brother speaking on TV so people don’t contrast there styles, and get rid of Balls who is looking and sounding more like a pantomime villain every time I see him, I keep expecting him to shout out “he’s behind you” or” Oh no he isn’t” when he’s in full flow.

  27. @TURK

    A very generous suggestion but I think Miliband has already made his bed.And Balls is a good choice for chancellor IMO.

  28. PETER CAIRNS

    It was-until she gave an answer.

    The last I heard she is suing someone about it.

    Anyway-I think she is doing a good job at PAC

  29. I thinks it’s fair to say that while Osborne made a good fist of a difficult job today, it’s highly likely that there will be some unraveling of some of the numbers in the next few days and weeks.

    The OBR figures that he didn’t mention today show unemployment (claimant count) rising next year and staying there in 2014, and there will be some severe question marks about the OBR’s record of prediction. So far in their rather short life, the good people at the OBR have developed an unenviable reputation for being too optimistic on jobs (vastly underestimating the redundancies arising from public sector cuts) underestimating the deficit and over estimating growth. To date, their predictive record has been very poor.

    Of course, this may be due to exceptional circumstances, and future errors could bee in the other direction, but the suspicion of many forecasters I suspect is that the numbers will turn out worse than the predictions.

    This is potentially significant, and the pace of deficit reduction in 1012 – 2014 is very, very slow. A tiny misjudgement somewhere will mean the deficit rises, and the closer to an election we get, the more politically damaging that would be.

  30. @Turk

    There’s a problem with the “They would have *been forced* to do all the same things we have done” line, is that it simply isn’t true.

    As is now economically clear, the impact of cuts has actually had a greater effect on us than effect from the EU. The Treasury and OBR are insisting on using figures that the IMF have now said were incorrect, and hugely underestimated the impact of making spending cuts. The EU did not cause domestic consumption to collapse and hit retail and construction. The EU’s problems only prevented OB from being able to use and Exports Only solution.

    “Balance the Books” Austerity has failed, here and in the EU. I do not understand the compulsion to continue to defend it, or claim it was inevitable and that no one could have done different. The US did in fact do different, albeit because they deadlocked the GOP who wanted to. The US have not collapsed like Greece.

    We’ve given it plenty of time to show that Austerity was the true path, it has not shown the results that were promised. And if I was running a company where someone proposed we should keep doing something that was losing us money and crippling our ability to maintain standards, with no proof what so ever that there was going to be improvement, I’d fire them.

  31. @COLIN

    She is doing better than ` a good job`.She is doing a brilliant job and a revelation at that.

  32. Turk

    Give it a rest
    .

  33. SMUKESH

    I think I have gone as far as I wanted to-and in the spirit of impartiality & objectivity, I thought it a pretty good effort.

    :-)

  34. Remember that if you are looking for reaction to the sound bytes about , well, whatever it was all about, it will be the YG poll (or another) that is announced on Friday morning, that could indicate something. My own feeling (remember those Colin, see badgers?), is that the sight of Osborne surrounded by nodding Clegg and Alexander will knock off a few points from Lib Dem VI.

  35. JAYBLANC

    If @”The Treasury and OBR are insisting on using figures that the IMF have now said were incorrect, ” refers to those multiplier numbers they reported on-perhaps it has slipped your memory that they were subsequently heavily criticised for being based on incomplete data, and a narrow band of special circumstances.

    You can get as many sets of data & assertions on the topic of multipliers as you have time to Google for-and they are all different.

    Circumstances , the type of economy, and the nature of the stimulus matter enormously.

  36. @ Chris Lane

    Proportionately, the poor are the hardest hit by the budget.

    From the Telegraph analysis:
    “The richest are the hardest hit [in absolute terms], with an impact of £2,370 by 2015 and the poorest will see an impact of £950 – a [much] higher proportion of their income.”
    8-)

  37. HOWARD

    You seem to be inviting a response from me on the subject of badgers.

    As is so often the case, I regret I haven’t a clue what you are on about.

  38. 5AM8
    Good Evening. Come on Glasgow Celtic, the boys in Green.

    The children of the poorest people in the land will suffer the most.

  39. CHRISLANE1945

    “The children of the poorest people in the land will suffer the most.”

    I trust that you are referring to the Russians, and not the Scots/Irish? :-)

  40. Not sure why I typed 5AM8; a captcha code.

    OLD NAT.

    Scots Irish supported by this London Irish-Welshman!

    (smiley face)

  41. CHRISLANE1945

    Good goal for Celtic. I trust that our friends in Catalunya will do their bit too!

  42. CHRISLANE1945

    Damn!

  43. Anthony Wells

    In view of the fact that UKIP are regularly polling into double figures, and in view of the fact that quite a few UKIP supporters do look at UK Polling Report; I was wondering whether the time has not come for the Swingometers on this site to include UKIP??

    I for one- and I am certain there are others- who would like to see what effect UKIP getting 25% of the Vote in the next General Election (which is not an impossible outcome) is likely to achieve, and whether that would result in UKIP getting Parliamentary Seats.

    Surely the time has come to include UKIP (possibly also the Green Party) as well as the three main Westminster Parties in your Swingometers, rather than lumping UKIP, the Green Party etc together in “Others”. That is like stating that these Parties are insignificant politically- like the Loony Party. That is certainly not the case.

    Ian Pennell

  44. Ian Pennell – never going to happen, and for good reason. Up until quite a high level of support it’s pointless, since it will always say zero. At a very high level it’s pointless because its completely divorced from reality, if UKIP really did get 25% in a general election it would be as a result of a massive realignment of party support, and the idea that it would happen in a uniform manner across the country is fanciful.

    Suffice to say, were UKIP to get 25% of the vote, we cannot tell what seats they’d win without knowing how their support was spread out across the country, and we can’t tell that until it happened (if I did happen I expect there would be lots of regional polling and polling in particular seats that we could draw on to make education projections).

    UKIP could get 25% and get no seats at all. They could get 25% and get a hundred seats. There is no way of predicting it as both are equally possible – me making up a formula in a spreadsheet wouldn’t make whatever assumptions I made true.

  45. Ian

    As someone who would rather cut off his own arm than vote for your party I have to say that I agree wholeheartedly that it is time and indeed long overdue that ukip were moved out of others and got their own polling averages

  46. AW

    But there is no reason why the ukpr polling averages can’t be amended to include ukip, other than its extra work for you

  47. @Howard

    ” sight of Osborne surrounded by nodding Clegg and Alexander will knock off a few points from Lib Dem VI.”

    Actually, I thought Clegg’s body movements on the front bench today, probably for the first time in this Parliament, didn’t look as if his nodding head was attached to Cameron or Osborne’s elbow. His facial expressions and, for the lip readers amongst us, his words too when Osborne was dismissing the idea of a Mansion Tax, suggested that he might be slowly emerging from his adopted surrogate Tory persona and, at long last, is now behaving like a politician from a radically different party who just happens, for now, to be an independent and pragmatic participant in a temporary coalition.

    How on earth he has allowed himself to be seen for so long as some unwitting and obedient dupe, totally subservient to Cameron, is a complete and utter mystery to me. I fear he and his party will pay a heavy political price for his craven behaviour.

    As for the Chancellor’s Autumn statement in the Commons today, I sense some clever smoke and mirrors and there’s no doubt that Osborne has rediscovered some of his old political conjuring skills. He undoubtedly wrong-footed the Shadow Chancellor who put in another hesitant and faltering Commons performance. Balls is shooting well wide of some very open goals at the moment and I wonder if Ed Miliband may be starting to wish that his brother’s sabbatical will soon come to a timely end!

  48. CHRISLANE1945

    While that was never a penalty – Yes!!!!!!

  49. Paulcroft

    Only if you do.

  50. Richard

    Since you ask:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

    Set it up the other day so I could keep an eye on it and see if it worked, so consider it a beta test!

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