This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 43%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%.

I’m always wary of reading too much into small movements in polls, but four of the last five YouGov polls have had Labour leads of 12 or more, so it is beginning to look as if the Labour lead has increased slightly. This seems to be down to a drop in Conservative support and an increase for UKIP, rather than any shift in Labour support, presumably due to the publicity UKIP have recieved in recent weeks from the Rotherham adoption case, the speculation about a Conservative-UKIP pact and their strong performance in last week’s by-elections.

There is also a new poll by Angus Reid, whose British polls are becoming increasingly infrequent. Topline figures there are CON 28%(-1), LAB 42%(-3), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 11%(+3). Changes are since March, the last time Angus Reid did a British voting intention poll. The fourteen point lead for Labour, while large in comparison to other companies, is actually a drop from Angus Reid’s previous poll – for whatever reason, they tend to show by far the largest Labour leads of any pollster.


378 Responses to “New YouGov and Angus Reid polls”

1 2 3 8
  1. @anthonyjwells You’ve got Labour and Tories mixed up on the Angus Reid write-up.

  2. Perhaps you should correct the Angus Read figures before Tories start hanging out the bunting for registering 42%

  3. You’ve got the Angus Reid Conservative and Labour figures mixed up

  4. Most striking about YouGov is how regularly they’ve been showing the same picture:

    Labour ahead of Tories on best party to handle unemployment and also taxation – and now pretty much neck-and-neck for economy.

  5. Shurely some mishtake . . ?

    I think the Angus Reid poll results perhaps should read
    LAB 42% (-3) CON 28% (-1) LDEM 10% (+1) UKIP 11% (+3)

    But of course there could have been a surge of enthusiasm for Dave that I hadn’t noticed!!

  6. You put CON and LAB backwards in the Angus Reid numbers

  7. Topline figures there are CON 42%(-3), LAB 28%(-1)…

    Wrong way round, surely…

  8. Lab down to 28%! That’s worse than 2010. Sack Red Ed!

  9. Cheers to my army of proof-readers. Corrected now!

  10. What are the odds on labour getting a 30+ majority?

    Tempted to have a flutter as I think most of the analysts are basing their predictions on previous elections and over estimating how far the lib dems will recover.

  11. Gap has widened by the look of it.

  12. Hey watch out, the lib dems are recovering

  13. @ Colin
    Follow on from previous thread.

    Re print media. 10 years for this to die out is not unrealistic, as technology is advancing pretty quickly. 4G and Superfast broadband thorughout most of the UK will be up and running within that time. So you will be able to sit on a beach in say Bognor Regis with your mobile device and download todays edition of The Telegraph within a second. The circulation numbers for printed media will dive by then, even allowing for older people still buying them. Once the circulation numbers drop below a certain level, advertising will be lost and cost of printing/distribution will become uneconomic.

    The only printed media that may survive are free newspapers given to commuters and the glossy celebrity/lifestyle magazines.

  14. UKIP’ers might be rejoicing at the strong poll showings and they look to have almost consolidated 3rd spot but they must be downhearted at thought of not actually winning any seats at the next election.

    A lot of huffing and puffing but little to show for it,

  15. YouGov has Lab ahead in every sex, age group, region and social grade.

    Even crusty countryside southerners are leaking away from them.

  16. RICHARD IN NORWAY

    “Hey watch out, the lib dems are recovering”
    ______

    Come on Richard this is a website for sensible debate amongst adults.

    I do believe Nickelodeon run a great website which you might enjoy. . ;)

    http://www.nick.co.uk/

  17. R HUCKLE

    Thanks.

    I don’t disagree at all-it’s going to be an electronic world.

    …….but one day-when the fuel runs out-the hand cranked printing press will be back & we will all gather around the withered tree stump to read the latest news about the end of the world.

    Brings to mind a favourite poem by Orcadian poet, Edwin Muir:-

    http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/the-horses/

  18. The royal baby has come at a good time for the Tories.

  19. Wolf

    ” The royal baby has come at a good time for the Tories.”

    That’s why I asked if the royals did it on purpose!!

  20. Allen

    Lib dems are on 11%!!! The fight back has begun and they will win an OM in the next election, as Mr steel said it time to go back to your constituencies and prepare for govt, he forgot to add, without the Tories

  21. Nick p

    Can you please set up your newspaper now, do an online one. I can’t stand the thought of the future with just online versions of the same crap newspapers we have already.

  22. @ Colin

    The aliens are coming on 21st December and we will all be eaten. I am not having a bath or shower until 21st, just in case, hoping that the smell puts them off. Also getting plenty of tins of beans in and brussel sprouts. :)

  23. I’m expecting a zombie apocalypse.

  24. Anthony:

    Not to be left out – you got something wrong.

  25. @ Colin

    Thank you for the Edwin Muir link. One of the many reasons I love this site.

  26. I seem to remember that AR was OTT with the Con lead when they were indeed well ahead but not as hugely as AR polled. Perhaps it’s something in their method that does this?

  27. Richard,

    I always liked the Spitting Image one;

    “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for… A of a disappointment!”

    Peter.

  28. Isn’t the Mayan end of the world supposed to be volcanos and earthquakes caused by the close pass of a rouge planet that happens once every 100,000 years or so.

    If we are going to indulge this 21st December Apocalypse nonsense we should at least be accurate about the disaster that isn’t going to befall us!

    Peter.

  29. R HUCKLE

    If the smell fails-the sprouts should work.

    NickP

    Yep thought we’d seen the last of them in May 2010-hey ho .

    ABERDEENCYNIC

    Pleasure.

  30. PETER CAIRNS

    @”close pass of a rouge planet”

    I think it was more of a dirty green colour, but you can never tell with those Mayan hieroglyphics.

  31. Colin,

    Curse of the iPad again, my first draft has “tour” not “your” and “apocryphal” not “apocalypse”.

    Could be if I stop correcting things I’ll make more sense.

    Peter.

  32. Howard – pre-2010 AngusReid were insisting that false recall didn’t exist and weighting to the actual results of the 2005 election, which in practice meant their polls had far fewer Labour supporters in than other companies’ polls – hence the divergence.

    These days they have learnt their lesson, and all companies that weight by past vote weight to something pretty close to the 2010 election results anyway*, so that shouldn’t be the reason. Must be something else.

    (*Which is a question in itself, why has false recall disappeared? Why should it? Something that needs to be looked at sometime…)

  33. PETER

    No-you usually make sense-even with the wrong words.

    Wiki is interesting on 21 Dec.

    It is the conclusion of a baktun, or 20 katun cycles of the Maya Long Count Calendar & constitutes 144,000 days.

    The 13th baktun ends on 21 December 2012 , a date known as 4-Ajau, God 9 of the Night, 3-Kank’in, Year Bearer 1-Kaban,

    Sounds like an SNP referendum date-itself the end of a Long Count.

  34. The royal baby has come at a good time for the Tories.

    -Only if She can stay pregnant until 2015!

  35. When Political Betting signed up Angus Reid they actually prior to the GE gave the largest Tory leads. This fitted in with Smithson’s Golden Rule that the poll with the lowest Labour reading would be the most accurate. Obviously AR have had a good hard look at their methadology and Smithson’s golden rule went into the shredder.

  36. Maybe the baby is the antichrist?

  37. “@nickp

    Maybe the baby is the antichrist?”

    Perhaps Prince Harry will be like Rodney from Only Fools and Horses, waiting for Damian to be born.

    @ Peter Cairns

    I am only joking, just in case you are getting worried that Scotland will not be independent before the end of time. The end of the world believers are not sure about the ending. Some think that a polar shift is the most likely, causing the earth to rotate in the opposite direction. There was me thinking that we might start getting Australian type weather.

  38. From the Telegraph;

    “Activity in the construction industry shrank in November – the third decline in four months, jobs were cut at the fastest pace in two years, new orders collapsed at their sharpest rate in three-and-a-half years, and sentiment in the industry hit its lowest point since December 2008, according to the CIPS/Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).”

    Ouch! The data from the manufacturing sector yesterday wasn’t quite as gloomy, but also showed a big fall in forward orders. These numbers are strong indicators that around 30% of the economy will almost certainly show negative in the Q4 figures, possibly quite heavily.

    There is some evidence that consumer spend is edging upwards, so the service sector could drag the figures into positive territory, but even here, there is mounting evidence that employment numbers are turning.

    I think we could be in for a very difficult winter for the government all round. More importantly, difficult for many of our countrymen and women as well.

  39. R HUCKLE………Were it to be an alien invasion your strategy might result in a mixed blessing, since, I am led to believe,, aliens behave counter-intuitively. Thus, your newly aquired aroma will immediately attract and spellbind them, you will be worshipped as a god, and, since the rest of us will be enslaved or destroyed, you will be able to impose your personal political philosophy, but only upon yourself. So, keep eating the beans and sprouts, but expect the unexpected. Good luck. :-)

  40. If aliens arrive that could boost the economy either through wartime weapon production or if they come in peace, open up new export markets for our, um, stuff.

    A new market for all those old BBC Sit Coms? Dad’s Army and May to December?

    ITV has got Love Thy Nighbour and My Brother’s Keeper as well as Man About The House and Robin’s Nest.

    Alph Centauri will be splitting their sides. If they have sides.

  41. 5-point rolling average of YouGov VI is interesting. There has been a definite shift in both Tory & LD VI since around the middle of last week.

    Tories on 31.4 – equals the lowest they have been since Cameron took over as leader. Down 2.5 on where they were 2 weeks ago.

    LDs on 10.4 – equal their highest score since Nov 2010. Up 2.6 on where they were 2 weeks ago.

    Leveson effect?

  42. NB: Of course it CAN’T just be Leveson effect, as the change has been happening for a couple of weeks. But it is a very interesting change in that we haven’t seen a similar Con-down, LD-up change for a long time. Could it be some internal re-organisation of support within the Coalition?

  43. AW
    Thanks. Is AR a member of your industry club nowadays? I somehow find it difficult to accept Con down at 28 – it’s a bit outside the MOE excuse isn’t it? However, the trend is there right enough.

  44. I hope even the cynics, naysayers and doom and gloom-merchants amongst you have bought your “royal baby mug” ?

    Mine says “HOORAY FOR WILL AND KATE” and as well as boosting my royalist credentials I think this may be a jolly good way out of the recession – better than building houses anyway.

  45. I’m worried about this speculation of twins. All it takes is a Caesarian birth and we could be into constitutional hell.

  46. @Colin

    Like Aberdeen Cynic, thanks for the link to the Edwin Muir poem. I hadn’t read it since I studied Muir as part of my English A Level syllabus in 1973 and reading it again reminded me of what a wonderful piece of poetry “The Horses” is.

    As for the polls, I think the developing story appears to be the steady puncturing of the Tory vote, now sub 30s in some polls and, even in those traditionally more kind to them, low 30s at best. I wonder what may have caused this? Cameron’s Leveson stance? UKIP raised profile? Continuing poor economic news? Damp squib EU summit?

    Probably a combination of all these factors, if truth be known, but we need to keep an eye on it because if these dire numbers become the norm for any significant length of time, then the electoral mountain they need to scale in 2015 becomes ever steeper. The more immediate impact of these poll numbers, however, is the negative effect on internal party morale and the tendency for them to incite dissent and disunity. Of course, the other side of the coin is the positive effect the polls have on Labour’s spirits and Miliband’s leadership. I’m getting an increasing sense, and these poll numbers will encourage him further, that Miliband has worked Cameron out and feels he has his measure now. I can’t quite put my finger on it but the dynamic between the two of them appears to have changed. This could be significant long term.

  47. “The royal baby has come at a good time for the Tories.

    -Only if She can stay pregnant until 2015!”

    Cameron has been spotted sneaking in the back door of the hospital carrying a large cork and piece of wood for her to bite down.

  48. @ NickP

    Your post 4.03pm had me splitting my sides.

    When the aliens arrive, perhap we should send Frankie Boyle to meet them. I suspect that they won’t be able to understand a bloody word.

  49. Apologies for my ignorance, but what is this Maya end of world or time on Stalin’s birthday? :-) :-)

  50. CB11

    It is indeed.

    The lost Eden of his Orcadian childhood is in there.

    Touches a spot for an ageing Conservative :-)

1 2 3 8