Tonight’s polls

I am out tonight, so won’t be around to comment on any polls that appear until either late or, more likely, Sunday morning. Tomorrow’s papers are, however, our first real chance to see some polling on the Leveson report. We can expect to see the usual Opinium poll in the Observer and YouGov’s weekly poll in the Sunday Times – I don’t know of anything else yet, but obviously it is possible.


125 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

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  1. A in W:

    He’s probably being Welshist.

    Or referring to wugby.

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  2. Jim

    After setting my company up in 2003, our turnover doubled in each of the first 4 years. I reckoned, at that rate of growth, that we’d be topping the GDP of China by 2030.

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  3. Rugby team awful; cannot close out a game.

    As to the rain: If you can see Mumbles it is going to rain, and if you cannot see it, the rain is here already…

    Is that the moon or the sun? I do not know, I am from Port Talbot. (My Dad’s line; he was from there).

    OLD NAT.
    I suspect when it comes to voting, even the younger people stay with the ‘tribe’.

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  4. Jim,

    “but once both are at twenty percent nationally, do the Tories really have any better cance at an MP than UKIP?”

    Yes!

    Firstly 20% national is meaningless, at around 20% the LibDems are often behind the SNP in vote share in Scotland but get twice as many seats. Why, because they are at close to 5% in forty seats but between 35-45% in the rest.

    That is enough to win some three way marginals and the old guard like Campbell and Kennedy to get over 50% in theirs.

    Secondly, as Anthony has pointed out the assumption of UKIP costing the Tories 21 seats is based on the fallacy that all there votes are coming from the Tories and that even the votes from the Tories in polls running up to the election will turn into actual UKIP votes.

    Thirdly as Politicalbetting pointed out just the other day some 27% of the vote is up for grabs, it often is mid term. It is one of the reasons so many Tories feel Miliband is Labours weakness as unlike Blair he hasn’t “Sealed the Deal”.

    I can see UKIP having the most influence on an election they ever have and maybe eclipsing the LibDems in popular votes but I don’t see them winning a single seat .

    A combination of the two will probably mean that the Tories don’t pick up the Labour marginals they need and that The lions share of the couple of dozen seats the LibDems losing going red.

    Most probable electoral result of a genuine UKIP surge, though I doubt there will be one……

    A Eurosceptical Tory dominated coalition being replaced by a Europhile Labour one.

    You have to laugh!

    Peter.

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  5. @ Jim

    I think a polling question like ‘would you ever consider voting UKIP?’ would be an interesting one.

    I suspect that UKIP is not capable of being a complete replacement to the Tories as many Tory voters would not consider UKIP for a vote regardless of circumstances. For the main two parties we do seem to have a ceiling of about 30% when it comes to a GE and with FPTP I don’t see that changing however fed up people are with their preferred party.

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  6. Jim and other ukip posters

    Don’t worry about all the negativity from the supporters of the two “main parties” they used to say the same about the lib dems and not look at us

    Mummm, on the other hand you better give up now and save yourselves some heartache

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  7. An Irish view of UK, EU (and other constitutional matters)

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/1201/1224327341441.html

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  8. I See,I presume it is both rugby and rain.Fair enough.Tonights poll will be very
    Interesting,though perhaps a bit unreliable due to Nicks Saturday night fever
    Theory.

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  9. It appears to me that Con & Lab have a bare minimum vote at present of just under 30%. To break that a new party would have to take a lot away from both.

    UKIP doesn’t appeal to enough. The SDP threatened but failed. You might argue that “New Labour” posed as a third way party, but instead of being centrist it turned out to be right of centre.

    Labour are the only party on the stage at the moment who are national and likely to command a majority. i can’t see UKIP appealing across the board except as a protest party.

    Next stop PR or basically, just Labour for good.

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  10. Shevii
    ComRes often asks which parties people would seriously consider voting for and IIRC Ashcroft and others (I believe Yougov have at some point) have polled about which parties people would never vote for.
    IIRC at one point 70% of the public said they’d never vote UKIP (this is from memory, I am on a mobile device so don’t have the actual data at hand[1]).
    However this doesn’t mean that it’s currently true – the reason people may have said they wouldn’t vote UKIP is because they didn’t see them as a major party rather than ideological opposition, so this may have changed since then.

    [1] If somebody could find the data, this would actually be a good discussion to have. Polling, who’d have thought it could be discussed?

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  11. It will very difficult for UKIP to maintain momentum for the next two and a half years to be able to take seats from the Tories.
    In the marginals the Tories biggest threat will still be the Labour party, given it’s still a possibility a deal will be done by the Tories with UKIP even if it’s behind close doors about what seats are contested.
    Which leaves us with the interesting question if UKIP does maintain momentum how much a threat are they to Labour in it’s marginal seats, it would be remarkably complacent of Labour if they assume UKIP only attracts disillusioned Tory supporters having listened to the Rotherham result there did seemed to be a number of Labour supporters who changed to UKIP although probably more Tories did is true.
    There is a lot of disillusionment with Europe and immigration in this country, especially in area’s of high unemployment where fairly or unfairly cheap immigrant labour is seen as a cause of many problems, it would be quite easy to see how people would turn to UKIP which seems to offer a respectable face to the disillusioned main stream voter on the left or right interesting times ahead I think but only if UKIP maintains momentum which I think is unlikely.

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  12. Nick P,

    I think that just a few more elections like 2005 and 2010 (i.e. Labour winning with about 1/3 of the votes and the Tories losing with an almost identical and indeed higher percentage) would be enough to turn most centre-right people onto PR. The UKIP are already planting pro-PR thoughts in the minds of the harder right.

    And once the right is on board with the non-die hard Labour left (who like FPTP for the same reasons the Tories used to and the Lib Dems hate it) then it’s curtains for FPTP. It may well be time to put it out to pasture: I think it’s a good system when there are broad-based mass parties with dynamic internal democracy and lots of factions (One Nation Tory, Powellite, Gaitskellite, Bevanite etc.) but that has withered and died in Britain over the last 30 years. The public have said they want a multiplicity of ruthlessly disciplined parties, and such a party system suits a PR voting system.

    I think a form of PR, like ours in Scotland, can work well. I complain a lot about Scottish politics, as you can imagine, but the problem is not PR. If anything, PR stops Scottish politics from being even more dully uniform and small-c conservative than it would be under FPTP.

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  13. Does UKIP have the same policies as the Tories other than Europe? The SNP have a full set of policies not just Independence.

    If UKIP have a full set of policies then if the policies do not match the Tories then I am not sure how you can substitute UKIP for Tories.

    The SNP ended up with a share of all the party’s support in Scotland – though they started off taking support mainly from the Tories.

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  14. * Than it is now, rather.

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  15. Couper1982,

    They have the policies that Thatcherite Tories love but which the Tories have concluded can’t work today e.g. support for grammar schools & school vouchers, tough immigration policies, global warming scepticism, increased defence expenditure, major spending cuts etc.

    They also have some very libertarian policies that even traditional Thatcherites would tend to dismiss e.g. opposition to current emergency powers, support of Swiss-style referenda, flat taxation etc. And some idiosyncratic Shires policies i.e. opposition to GM crops and tougher animal welfare laws.

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  16. The dangers of assuming that voters for a party necessarily share the views of that party!

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/republicans-helped-same-sex-marriage-win-at-the-polls/2012/11/30/7db4e37c-3a45-11e2-8a97-363b0f9a0ab3_story.html

    “After years of defeats, same-sex-marriage advocates scored a remarkable 4-0 sweep of state ballot contests on Nov. 6. One major reason: This year, significant numbers of Republicans voted their way. That should give pause to a GOP establishment that has alienated many younger voters and independents with its stance on the issue and now faces the prospect of dissent among its core constituents as well.”

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  17. @BILL PATRICK

    They don’t sound exactly my type of party. But I am sure they could appeal to the same type of voters Thatcher appealed to.

    In 2015 we could have Cons (middle right) UKIP (very right) against a united left, which in FPTP is bad news for the right.

    So I can see why the idea of UKIP replacing the Cons as main opposition to Labour appeals but I can’t see such a huge change happening without some Greece-like meltdown.

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  18. @ Colin

    A Labour official said: “We want parliament to take a decision in principle – and before the end of January – that we will implement the central recommendations of the report. Parliament will have a duty to scrutinise the legislation that will then be required to ensure it is effective and fair. For instance, Lord Leveson recommended that the independent regulation be recognised by Ofcom and it is our preferred option.”

    Some people, including Nick Clegg, have reservations about this role being given to OfCom.

    “Lord Leveson’s report accepts this role could be performed by another body but believes this role must be guaranteed by law. It is right that other options for the appropriate regulatory body backed by law are considered as we build a consensus across parties for the implementation of his central recommendations.
    ——————-
    I don’t see your much trailed view that Labour were backing away from Leveson anywhere in this recent report.

    What I do see is: Leveson’s own opinion is that Ofcom is a suggestion not a recommendation per se – but Labour’s preference is to stick with Leveson’s suggestion that Ofcom are experienced & are best placed to take on the responsibility.
    8-)

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  19. Amber

    Good fundraiser, I trust?

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  20. The more apparent the potential for this being disastrous politically for Cameron the more likely it seems to me that his response was one of principle.

    I’ve never been a fan of “they would say that anyway” criticism anyway.

    I am still surprised by his hostage-to-fortune “bonkers” comment. I also think Gove’s remarks were very silly for a government minister to make in advance of the publication of a report commissioned by the government.

    The next week’s polls will be intriguing and the petition will probably pass 100,000 signatures very rapidly.

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  21. @ Old Nat

    Good fundraiser, I trust?
    ————–
    Yes, thank you. But the young people today, they are too responsible & sedate. ;-)

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  22. Amber

    :-)

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  23. @Bill Patrick

    Is there any party that actually advocates the legalisation of GM crops?

    rgdsm

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  24. Martyn,

    I don’t know. I would be surprised if there isn’t a tiny taxi-party out there somewhere. Probably this lot-

    http://9percentgrowth.blogspot.co.uk/

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