ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent has topline figures of CON 35%(+2), LAB 42%(-2), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 6%(+1). As with the ICM poll earlier this month, that 6% for UKIP doesn’t look that high compared to the levels of support they register in online polls, but is high by the standards of ComRes’s telephone polls.

The rest of the poll had questions showing people agreeing that Britain should stay in the European Union by 46% to 45% and, um, agreeing that Britain should pull out of the EU and maintain close trading links by 54% to 36%. Other than another lesson on why you should be very careful in interpreting questions asked as agree/disagree statements (imagine how differently someone could interpret this poll if only one of those questions had been asked), the reason is probably mostly to do with people wanting to stay in the EU because of trading links and therefore being happy to say they’d leave if they thought it was possible to maintain trading links outside the EU.

We are also still due a Populus poll for the Times this month. So far I haven’t heard or seen any sight of it.


53 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 35, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 6”

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  1. Nobody cares about this ComRes :-(

  2. I am waiting for a poll this week after the UKIP/Rotherham story to see if it affects the UKIP or Labour votes. Will be interesting to see.

    As far I can read here, this poll is taken from before the weekend.

  3. The one referendum we did have was about being part of a common market – i.e. just trading links – a sort of enlarged EFTA.

    The main parties all hid the fact that there was a deeper purpose, so it’s no surprise that British people want now what they wanted then – just a free trade area without all the interference and massive costs.

  4. I’m surprised that no one is questioning the legitimacy of the process of selecting the governor of the BoE from outside the publicized short list. Apparently because it was a delicate matter with the canadians. Does anyone know if this appointment is final, will there be a select commitee approval process. And will the details of all candidates interviews be made public. A surprise announcement means one that has not had the glare of publicity before its a done deal.

  5. @ RiN

    The BoE job is for about half the usual length of time. 5 years (one parliament) instead of 8 years. Whoever wins in 2015 gets to replace him if it’s not working out.
    8-)

  6. Pete B,

    Oh grow up!

    Every change to the EU since we joined almost forty years has been debated in parliament and in the country.

    For more than half of that time we had just two PM’s Blair and Thatcher, who won repeated elections while making all of the changes in the interim.

    I don’t have a problem with people who don’t like the EU or want it to go in a different direction but I have no time for all this secret plans of the Euro elite nonsense.

    It’s typical of the angry attitude that we see too often, the standard response when people don’t get there way is to claim that “There is no Democracy”.

    Give that all the changes since 1973 have been agreed by democratically elected politicians in a democratic parliament, democracy is exactly why we are where we are.

    Peter.

  7. RICHARD IN NORWAY

    “I’m surprised that no one is questioning the legitimacy of the process of selecting the governor of the BoE from outside the publicized short list”
    _______

    I’m not sure but some guy in Castlemilk was complaining about it on his way to the bingo ;)

  8. “We are also still due a Populus poll for the Times this month. So far I haven’t heard or seen any sight of it”
    _______

    STATGEEK has probably pinched the poll and fed it into his impressive blog of graphs. ;)

  9. Peter Cairns
    Firstly, I don’t see the necessity of ad hominem attacks, just because you disagree with me.
    I remember the 1975 campaign, and it is a fact that the main parties disguised the fact that the aim of the (then) EEC was ‘ever closer union’. This is not to say that this information was not in the public domain, but that it was not emphasised in the campaign.
    As for your points about democracy, it is a fact that the EU or its predecessors has rarely been a major GE issue, and there has often been close agreement between the main parties on the approach anyway.
    I’m afraid that this is one of the subjects on which there is a democratic deficit – the main parties all have a very similar policy, despite posturing, and there is a substantial minority or even majority view that is barely represented in the UK parliament.
    I can’t comment on the Scottish parties or parliament.

  10. Correct if wrong, but it seems like Camerons EU summit did not give Tories any real jump in the polls. Certainly not like when he used his veto.

  11. @PeteB

    You said “….The main parties all hid the fact that there was a deeper purpose…”

    Do you genuinely think that’s a true statement? Serious question.

    rgdsm

  12. @PeteB

    People wanted to buy some decent cars instead of British Leyland rubbish

  13. Martyn
    Of course I do. I remember it. I’ve also looked it up to get further facts. Here’s one:
    ‘The government distributed pamphlets to every household in Britain written by the official Yes and No campaigns, together with its own pamphlet which argued in support of EEC membership.[11] According to this pamphlet, “the most important (issues in the renegotiation) were FOOD and MONEY and JOBS”.’

    Also
    ‘According to Alastair McAlpine, “The whole thrust of our campaign was to depict the anti-Marketeers as unreliable people – dangerous people who would lead you down the wrong path … It wasn’t so much that it was sensible to stay in, but that anybody who proposed that we came out was off their rocker or virtually Marxist.”‘

    Admittedly my source is Wikipedia, but it’s usually fairly sound on non-current events.

    I’m not saying that the deeper purpose was never mentioned in the entire campaign, but the message coming across to the ordinary voter was that we were financially better off being in, and that opponents were all looneys. As the No campaign’s leaders were Tony Benn and Enoch Powell, there would be many moderates who would agree with that.

  14. Wolf
    :-)
    A lot of people voted Yes because the strong implication that customs rates would be equalised, which was taken to mean that we’d have cheap booze and fags. Still waiting!

  15. Martyn
    Main comment in moderation, but what does ‘rgdsm’ mean?

  16. Pete B,

    “the main parties all have a very similar policy, despite posturing, and there is a substantial minority or even majority view that is barely represented in the UK parliament.”

    You could say the same about Intelligent design;

    All the main parties, supported by the “so called” scientific consensus, support evolution… another democratic deficit I suppose.

    Obviously if political parties who have regularly dominated elections don’t do what you think they should even thought they account for nine out of ten votes they aren”t representative.

    Peter.

  17. @PeteB

    For various implausible reasons, I used to sign off with “Regards, Martyn”. Now, I started a new job this year and it comes with (another) new laptop and – lo and behold – I’ve developed RSI in my right wrist. Whilst this is not really a problem, it does mean I try to minimise my typing. So “rgdsm” is an abbreviation for “Regards, Martyn”

    rgdsm

  18. @AmberStar
    “Whoever wins in 2015 gets to replace him if it’s not working out”

    The same can’t be said about the EU budget. Whoever wins in 2015 is stuck with it until 2020.

    I find this practice of setting in stone 7 year budgets unsettling. An extreme response to a dysfunctional decision making process perhaps, but one which relies on limiting the democratic input. Imagine if we only had an Autumn Statement once every 7 years.

  19. Phil
    “Imagine if we only had an Autumn Statement once every 7 years.”

    That’s a dream that sits alongside the utopian ideals of no heaven/hell and of international peace. But the line doesn’t really scan so I can see why John Lennon left it out.

  20. @Allan Christie

    “STATGEEK has probably pinched the poll and fed it into his impressive blog of graphs.”

    Thanks for the plug. I’ve been resisting the temptation to spam about it. It wouldn’t be fair on AW, nor even on topic after one or two links.

    I’m tending to focus on YG polls. The spreadsheet for those alone is pretty big (going back a year now). Short of YG going to weekly polls, I won’t touch other polling companies unless there’s a particularly interesting (and believable) one. My blog is going to focus a little between the YG poll charts, election charts and turnout charts. Basically eye-candy from data. I enjoy the spreadsheets practice.

    I’m in the middle of doing some post – by-election charts for now. A bit late, but I was hoping to have the site live by October (been unwell for a bit).

    Should have them done by mid-week. Tune in to the RSS feed or click the username here of course.

  21. Only a seven point lead…a change in the offing? BoE appointment looking positive in the polls?

    Only joking.

  22. Pete B & Martyn

    The first time I heard about the EU was about half a century ago when Donald Dewar told me wha was planned, and why.

    He assured me that in 20 -30 years (i.e. by c 1972 at the latest) we would have a European currency and a European army. The main aim was to ensure that France and Germany would be bound together so that there would never be a war in Europe again.

    I knew a Rosenheim Grandmother who never gave a thought to the prospect of her grandson being called to fightin a war, or the border being defended. Perhaps she was the first generation of German grandmothers who could say that. Ever.

  23. JOHN B DICK

    Well, at least Donald got some things right!

  24. PETE B
    Having followed the EU development – both policy and structure – since its inception, worked for and in the Commission, and participated in an EMP election, I have to say that I agree with the voices raise d against the idea the the UK parties or any government has been engaged in a deception as to European aims and strategy. The Common Market has been the major fully constructed building block, with very successful and historic accompanying development of common patents, ISO and intellectual property; the ensuing measures for working rights, and for an EU labour market were no less welcomed but have raised significant problems of economic migration linked to widely different economies. And the CAP – as a measure to equalise differentials in agrarian status and the wealth of regional popualations was a disaster. It’s rather along that track that you need to look for a conspired attempt at policy-based movements towards a unity not based on historical or economic reality,but this has been founded in the poor capacities and overweening confidence of the Commission’s cadres – a trahison des clercs; not a conspiracy either of politicians, or parties or governments. Ambitions towards a European super-state or federation have been overt and well publicised and debated, and overtly opposed by UK politicians, partiies and governments.

  25. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 26th November – CON 34%, LAB 43%, LD 9%, UKIP 8%; APP -29

  26. No real change in any of the questions asked in today’s poll either, so not much point in reporting them.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9703678/Exclusive-Eight-Tory-MPs-in-talks-about-defecting-to-Ukip.html
    UKIP Claims (they would, wouldn’t they?) that they’ve been in talks with 8 Tory MPs about defecting to UKIP.

    But perhaps the ‘I’ve had lunch with’, means ‘I had lunch and I brought it up but they weren’t that interested’.

    Still, it makes very good electoral PR for UKIP.

  27. @Allan

    Thanks for plugging statgeeks site – I wouldn’t have thought to click otherwise.

    @ Statgeek

    Like the site, will enjoy exploring later today.

  28. Second estimate of GDP out today – fingers crossed that it’d stay the same or see a slight upward revision – any downward revision would be bad for confidence, which Q4 really needs more of – but a reminder of 1% growth may boost consumer confidence for Christmas.

  29. This is a quote from a hedge fund manager explaining why he isn’t buying stocks(this fund was also not buying in 2007/8)

    ” “One of the things that happens as profits grow as a per cent of gross domestic product is income becomes more and more unequal because the ownership of capital is extraordinarily uneven. And there’s a natural tension that forms there from a societal perspective.” So far, Inkeradds, government spending has supported the economy and so profits. But a pick-up in growth requires higher consumption, and the only way to get that is through higher incomes, which must come from profits”

    These commies get everywhere

  30. @ Amber Star

    You will appreciate a win for the good guys (or public service labor unions).

    http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-riordan-pension-collapse-20121127,0,524402.story

    :)

  31. @ Old Nat (and Amber Star)

    You will appreciate a victory for the counted out underdog against the big party machine.

    http://veniceforchange.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-butler-didnt-do-it.html?spref=fb

    :)

    (Sadly, I very much like the candidate who lost and I wish she had won. But it does speak for the independence of voters when they will not allow party leaders to install candidates of their choosing.)

    Part of me wishes we had SPADing here. Part of me is glad we don’t.

  32. Does anybody remember the halcyon days when the appointment of a new Governor of the Bank of England wouldn’t have raised, beyond the FT, a murmur in the mainstream media? Now, and I understand the higher visibility of the role since the BoE gained independence and can set interest rates, it seems to have become akin to the election of a new Pope!

    Aren’t we all getting into a bit of a tizzy and a lather over someone who, essentially, is going to be peripheral to the setting of economic policy? He’s an unelected central banker, not without importance within our financial sector obviously, but to read some of the guff in today’s press, and to listen to Osborne eulogising in the Commons yesterday, anybody would think that we were witnessing the Second Coming.

    Preposterous stuff.

  33. Cb11

    Sorry I have to disagree with you. The governor of the BoE is not peripheral to the setting of economic policy. The central bank is economic policy even more so today than before. They decide how much QE is unleashed and how. Most stock market gains are on days when the central banks make statements, by a factor of 9 to 1 according to a study. The BoE will also regulate the banking industry which will also have an effect on the real economy. Even if the chancellor wanted to pursue a different fiscal policy he would need the co-operation of the BoE. This is a very important appointment, and probably signals a even more aggressive monetary policy from July next year. Watch out for the BoE buying assets other than gilts, but still there will be no QE for the general public.

  34. Have been reading about Mr Carney & his wife this morning.

    He recently had a heated exchange with Jamie Dimon, & extols the virtues of “public service”.
    His wife is VP of a left wing think tank , & has strong views on the evils of the corporate world.

    Gone off him-watcha done George ??

    Still-EB will get on well with him -no wonder he looked pleased.

    :-)

  35. Definitely an outlier poll in Scotland, especially noticeable when compared to the MAD data.

    Chart update – http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2012/11/poll-261112/ (need to refresh if visited in past 12 hours – charts expire in browser after 12 hours).

    Someone found a 404 – fixed! :)

  36. Some revealing quotes from that EU Budget meeting :-

    “For us it’s not that important as it is for others to have a limit on the total budget”

    Mario Monti.

    “It’s a shame that for the British, Europe is primarily a single market. For me , for Belgium, Europe is more solidarity and prosperity for all Europeans”

    Elio Di Rupio.

    Different planet.

    My overall impression is of a distinct weakening of the Franco German hegemony, as France moves to the Med Periphery & Germany moves to the Northern Group ……..including UK.

    How will it all look when they meet again?

    It’s like waiting to see if Monty & Swann can do it all over again-or will something change?

  37. Don’t really know why people want to see a poll about Rotherham by election as the bookies have Labour at 1/100 and bookies have been a reliable guide in all elections. No need for polls just at the bookmakers odds as they are a better guide

  38. Colin

    Yes, I think Germany has moved towards the British position (praise for Cameron in Der Spiegel) and France is moving south.

    And yes, wasn’t the cricket great!!

    Keep it up only two years to go (previous post). Great institution if you get it right!

  39. Reading Der Spiegel:

    “There is also disagreement over how the money is to be spent. Currently, some 40 percent of the budget is spent on agricultural subsidies, a further third for the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund, which focus on helping the EU’s poorer regions, and 6 percent for EU administration….

    Net contributors such and Germany and Britain have demanded a “modern budget,” meaning that cuts be primarily made to agricultural subsidies. Indeed, Van Rompuy’s compromise proposal calls for slashing such payouts by €25 billion. That, however, has triggered furious protest in France, which is the largest recipient of agricultural support.”

    Aw shame!

    All the greed of one country versus another, if the proposed rises went through (1 trillion), and then 6% goes to administration which amounts to 60 Billion.

    If no one else can see the utter waste going to Europe, see the admin costs. Putting that in perspective, Europe could have 20 of the new ‘super-carriers’ that we’re currently building.

    At 300 billion, Greek’s debt could have been all but paid off since 2007.

    The 2.5 million unemployed in the UK could have been paid £24K per year, tax free.

    Accrington Stanley could have bought Barcelona and won the Champion’s League.

    :)

  40. WASTORYNOWLABOUR –

    Um. Ladbrokes are currently offering 1/5 on Labour, Paddy Power 1/8. You have an incredibly mean bookie if they are only offering 1/100!

    There are at least two recent by-elections (Bradford West and Dunfermline and West Fife) where the bookies got it wrong, had Labour as odds on favourites when they went on to lose (hell, you could Galloway at 5-1 on the eve of the by-election).

    Don’t get me wrong, I would expect Labour to win Rotherham (not least because if there is a strong protest vote it would be split between Respect and UKIP and the BNP), but don’t get carried away with the bookies odds, they don’t really have any significant information that you or I don’t have.

  41. Today’s YG has a very unusual Scottish sub-sample. The LibDems & the Tories are ahead of the SNP!
    8-)

  42. @ StatGeek

    At 300 billion, Greek’s debt could have been all but paid off since 2007.
    The 2.5 million unemployed in the UK could have been paid £24K per year, tax free.
    Accrington Stanley could have bought Barcelona and won the Champion’s League.
    ——————-
    Well done; you’ve found 3 things which will make people happy that the EU blew 6% of their budget on admin! :-)

  43. @RinN

    I don’t disagree that the Governor of the BoE is an important role, and I said as much in my post, but unless I missed something, the post is subservient to the Chancellor of the Exchequer who, as the elected politician, is in charge of the development and deployment of our economic policy. In that context, although he’s unlikely to be as deferential and malleable as King, he will be Osborne’s minion when all is said and done. He’ll influence policy but not determine it and I’d be appalled to discover that a central banker, however well regarded, was single-handedly determining our monetary policy. That’s a job for democrats not technocrats.

    What we don’t want is any more of this “masters of the universe” fantasy, elevating bankers to a level in our public life that is both undeserved and unwarranted. If we’ve learned anything these last 30 years it’s that the investment of too much faith in these people is a recipe for both social and economic disaster.

    I’m still inclined to go with Adair Turner’s opinion that much of the work of the financial services sector is socially useless and while I accept that there is an important role for banking to play in our economy, there’s been far too much worshipping at this particular altar for our national good. The ludicrous fuss made about Carney’s decision to, Jesus like, deign to come amongst us, is another example of this misplaced faith.

  44. AW

    I beg to differ, as the bookies in Rotherham can only adjust their odds to the amount of money put on each candidate. Now if that isn’t a proper poll i don’t know what is!

  45. Statgeek

    Well its not surprising that France gets a disproportionate amount of agriculture subsidies it has after all a disproportionate amount of arable land, I don’t know if there are figures of subsidy per acre but just looking at the map I’m inclined to think that the French would come out not so well. Anyway the fact is that France is a bigger net contributer than Britain no matter which way you measure it and not far behind Germany at all. So any reduction in the CAP will leave the French being even more of a net contributer and possibly the biggest net contributer at a time when its economy is looking decidedly shaky, its no wonder that they are not happy with the British proposals. Now personally I would agree that getting rid of the cap would be a good thing but only if the Americans get rid of all their underhanded subsidies as well, some of the subsidies are monumentaly silly, the sugar one in particular(don’t tell the danes I said that) but we should also look at the other side of it.

    Europe is only just self sufficient in food, some years its in surplus other years its in deficit, I don’t know how much that can be ascribed to the CAP but I do know that the original purpose of farming subsides was to increase domestic production and provide food security, indeed after WWII Britain had a very aggressive subsidy program because the experience of being dependent on imported food in wartime was not at all pleasant and the ministeries of defence and farming were in close contact with each other.

    What we see in 3rd world countries that don’t have subsidies but do have free trade is that their domestic farming is destroyed by subsidized imports from the EU and the US, now I don’t like that we are doing that to poor countries and would hope that would stop but I really wouldn’t like that to happen to us. In the US the pentagon talks about agri power, and in fact used it somewhat against the soviets, recently they did a new study concluding that it was still one of America biggest soft powers. Can you imagine a Europe of the future which is dependent on the US for food and on Russia for gas!!!

    Ok that’s enough for now.

  46. Is 6% on admin unusually excessive? I seem to remember that a lot of charities have much higher admin rates, I wonder what our admin costs are?

  47. @ RiN

    5 to 6% of revenues for admin is the corporate benchmark. Is a corporate benchmark appropriate for the EU? Corporations would argue that they are creating wealth i.e. doing more than moving money from one place to another…. some of us would beg to differ with them on that!
    8-)

  48. TOH

    Thanks-yes it is-if you work at it.

    They haven’t got the patience today though.

  49. Good to have Pieterson back.

  50. @Amber

    “Today’s YG has a very unusual Scottish sub-sample. The LibDems & the Tories are ahead of the SNP!”

    Indeed. More outliers than a music festival.

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