Nadine Dorries is out of “I’m a Celebrity…” and to celebrate Lord Ashcroft has released a poll of her Mid-Bedfordshire constituency. Topline voting intentions in the constituency are CON 51%(-2), LAB 22%(+7), LDEM 14%(-11), UKIP 8%(+3), GRN 4%(+1) – changes are from the general result in 2010.

Opinions of Dorries in her own constituency are not particularly flattering. Asked to rate whether they have a positive or negative view of various politicians on a scale of 0-10, she averages at 2.8, well below Boris Johnson (6.1), David Cameron (5.4), Nick Clegg (4.0), Ed Miliband (4.0) and Nigel Farage (3.5). Only 8% of people in Mid-Bedfordshire rated her above 8/10 on a positively scale.

58% of people disapproved of her decision to go on “I’m a Celebrity…” compared to only 16% who approved. 57% disagreed that she’d be able to get more publicity for the issues she cared about on the show rather than at Westminster, 54% disagreed that donating her MPs salary to charity made up for her absence. On whether or not she was a good MP people were evenly split 35% thought she was, 35% thought she wasn’t. Finally, 58% of people thought the Conservative party were right to suspend her, compared to 26% who thought it was wrong (17% said it should have been left to the local party to decide). Conservative voters were even more hostile – 64% thought it was right to suspend her.

44% of people said they were less likely to vote for her because of her appearance on “I’m a Celebrity…”, only 8% were more likely. Readers will know my reservations over questions like this – lots of the people saying less likely are Labour and Lib Dem voters anyway, so they are hardly lost votes. I’d even take the 44% of Tory voters who said less likely with quite a big pinch of salt, as in the event that Nadine Dorries somehow ends up standing as a Conservative candidate again lots will end up voting on national issues. Those concerns aside, it does suggest that the MP’s decision has gone down very badly in her constituency.

In other news, today’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 10%. That 10% for UKIP is right at the top end of the level of support YouGov have been showing them at and is worth keeping an eye on. At the tail end of last year we also saw an increase in UKIP support when the European summit rose up the media agenda.


481 Responses to “Nadine out of the jungle”

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  1. Well, not very exciting – it merely confirms that Mid Beds, while not posh, is a very safe Conservative seat. Even in 1997 the Tories were well ahead of Labour there.

  2. It’s quite a low swing to Labour in fact, looking at national polls. If Labour enjoyed lower swings in safe seats than marginals in the general election, the party would be very happy.

  3. These are remarkable:
    “Boris Johnson (6.1), David Cameron (5.4), Nick Clegg (4.0), Ed Miliband (4.0) and Nigel Farage (3.5)”

    So, BOJO way ahead.

    Is DC’s, NC’s and EM’s values ‘good’ or ‘bad’, especially in relation to BOJO and to each other? Do we have any benchmark to compare to?

  4. Given that there is antipathy to Nadine in her own constituency, and among Con supporters, I imagine that she will want to regain the Tory Whip in good time for the next GE. I can’t see her having any incumbency factor to carry with her if she were to move for example to UKIP.

  5. I think she probably has a negative incumbenacy factor. It doesnt matter, this seat would vote for any candidate with a blue rosette.

  6. I think the Tories will let Dorries remain as an independent Tory, until the parliamentary committee have looked into her conduct. It would depend on the committees report as to whether they accepted her back. The trouble with Dorries is that she would continue to be unhappy in the Tory party, as there is no chance of a leader being elected she would agree with. Most of the top Tories are currently from the same type of background.

    Dorries will also not be accepted into UKIP, as Farage has already said that he is not really interested.

    My guess is that she will be given the whip back and will fight/win her seat in 2015. It is probably marginally better to have her inside the party, rather that outside as she may then attack the party more often.

  7. This is a horrible poll for the Tories, they are hardly losing any votes in their safe seats, so where has the decline in their vi come from, safe labour seats? In which case the Tories can breathe easy, from marginal? Then its time to panic hard, interesting also the collapse of lib dem vi benefiting labour, looks like live were 2nd here last time but next time lab will be second. That’s a big setback, means there is no chance of squeezing the lab vote and maybe making this seat competitive one day

  8. Apart from Europe being in the headlines helping Ukip there is also the border agency issue which looks bad for the Tories, many of their supporters that are dissatisfied with the Tories Europe policy were also expecting a Tory led govt to be tough on illegal immigration, this looks like a big failure. I expect more Tory waverers to jump over to Ukip at least temporarily. Have to ask just where does Ukip vi become self reinforcing, where is the tipping point. I’m guessing that if it hits 15% for any length of time it will go quickly to 25% as more wasted vote waverers come off the fence

  9. As I flicked over for the ITN News at Ten, having watched the Man City v Real Madrid game on Sky, I caught the very last bit of I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, just as Dorries was crossing the bridge to be welcomed back into the real world by her loved one(s).

    I was disappointed to see that Cameron and Pickles didn’t make up her reception party, though. Instead, and very surprisingly, she was greeted by a man who seemed very pleased to see her. It wasn’t Nigel Farage, was it? lol

  10. This was a Liberal/Conservative marginal at one time. Post-war Labour was a good second without ever taking the seat. In the last two or three decades Lab and SDP/LD have vied for second place.

    14% for LDs is as bad as it gets… a Liberal candidate once polled as low as 13.8% in 1970.

    For Labour 22% is better than 1983, 1992, and much better than 2010 – similar to 2005, but a long way from the level of support in 1997 or 2001.

    51% is fine for the Tories and little different to the 52.5% in 2010 – better than the run of mid-high forties they scored in opposition, but short of the mid-high fifties they achieved in the Thatcher/Major years.

  11. Crossbat – Ladbrokes, who seem to have some fixation with Eric Pickles, are offering odds of 100-1 for him to pick her up from the airport.

  12. Ashcroft must have [well, we know he does] loads of spare [cough…very litigious…cough] dosh to be bothered aboiut a poll on Ms Dorries.

    Who really gives a toss?

  13. And they are offering 10-1 on her joining UKIP, which may not be a bad punt (although it has to be this year, which makes it less attractive a bet)

  14. I was disappointed for Nadine. I think she went in for a good cause, to promote politics, as political anoraks we should support that goal. Vince Cable, George Galloway, Ann Widdecombe (although not sitting at the time) Lembit Opik (again not sitting) have all gone before her, so it’s not a party issue.

    To anyone who hasn’t watched the series, she started out unpopular as an MP would and got voted to do all the trials along with Rosie Webster from Coronation street. But Nadine actually really showed some tough metal and won the challenges she was set. So eventually the public stopped hating on her and she got less and less trials which I thought was good for her.

    I am a little surprised that she’s not in the jungle for longer, I thought that notoriety and the fact the public seemed to be warming to her, would keep her in, I certainly didn’t expect the likes of Limahl (80’s one hit wonder) Eric Bristow (Darts Player) or Charlie Brooks (Eastenders) to be in their longer than Nadine, all 3 are very very dull and I can’t imagine who voted for them.

  15. @RiN

    Have to ask just where does Ukip vi become self reinforcing, where is the tipping point. I’m guessing that if it hits 15% for any length of time it will go quickly to 25% as more wasted vote waverers come off the fence
    ——————-
    According to Ashcroft’s Red Alert polling, Labour are not losing votes to UKIP so it willbe difficult for UKIP to get much higher than they are. UKIP already have all the ex-LD voters which they are likely to get so they are only attracting disaffected Tories.

    I do not think that UKIP will field candidates for Westminster. It’s all about the European elections. UKIP seems to love that MEP lifestyle whilst claiming to want it abolished.

    Lynton Crosby, on past form, is not going to cut much ice with Labour voters but he’ll bring the ex-Con UKIP’ers back to the Tory fold by 2015, of that I’m sure.
    8-)

  16. “I do not think that UKIP will field candidates for Westminster. ”

    Seems unlikely they won’t. They fielded 600-odd candidates last time and have already started selections for next time round

  17. Amber

    I think that Ukip might like the fact that European elections are PR which gives them a chance and of course the irony of an anti-Europe party being elected to the euro parliament must be appealing as well

  18. @ MitM

    I am a little surprised that she’s not in the jungle for longer, I thought that notoriety and the fact the public seemed to be warming to her, would keep her in…
    ——————–
    Voters loathe politicians at the moment; Nadine never had a chance of staying in.
    8-)

  19. Amber

    Well I’m going to root for the ukipers anyway cos its the best chance we have of getting electoral reform

  20. Rooting isn’t the same as voting!!!!!!

  21. So the good folk of Mid. Beds like Posh Boys more than Jungle Nad.

    And there wasn’t even a question about the price of milk.

    :-)

  22. MiM

    You actually watched it ?

  23. PAUL

    About one billion smackeroos it seems.

    He gives a toss-quite evidently-and it’s his money.

  24. CB11

    @”having watched the Man City v Real Madrid game on Sky, ”

    Scab -and do you shop at Amazon too?………and drink at Starbucks?

  25. In Mid Beds they will elect a Pantomime Horse provided it’s wearing a Blue Rosette.

    Oh Hang on!

  26. We can add Austria to the growing list of countries asking where their gold is. 80% of it is stored in London, I wonder how long before they repatriate their gold as so many others have done or are planning to. Seems that trust is in short supply

  27. Colin

    Personally I wouldn’t touch sky with a barge pole but fortunately I’m not addicted to football so its no big loss for me. But I understand that real football fans have little choise than to subscribe to sky(free bloody market indeed) in spite of their political veiws

  28. @Amber

    Maggie Thatcher isn’t all that popular and yet Carol Thatcher (her daughter) WON I’m A Celebrity a few years ago.

  29. RiN

    No-of course a personal desire to watch overides all matters of principle-and doesn’t debar the scab viewer from fulminating against the evil Murdoch Empire.

    Actually only those people- like me-who love sport but won’t pay the price for a Sky Sports package have the moral credentials to call criticise Murdoch.

    That I don’t is because I quite admire what he has built-and not because his grip on covering sports which I love pis*es me off .

  30. I recall that before the last GE and occassionally since we have had discussions about proportionate vote changes per seat rather than using the conventinal swing idea.
    As a proportionate advocate myself I was pursuaded by the evidence from Anthony that the conventional swing method works well particularly in 2 way lab-con marginals and historically has been very accurate as the distortion was modest and the results average out fairly well.

    It seems to me, however, that the coalition dynamics and the behaviour of 2010 LDs poses this question again and the Mid Beds poll supports this.

    The biggest change from 2010 in polls so far (and probably at the GE) hs been Lab taking 2010 LD votes moderated a little by Cons taking some as well.

    I think there is a strong argument for saying that the LD-Lab/Con vote as recorded by polls should reallcated proportionately.

    So let’s say LDs down 1/3 and Lab up 1/4 of that and Cons level with their UKIP losses cancelling their LD gains 37, 35, 15 approx giving a Lab Con swing of notionally 3% but also a Con/LD swing of 3% and a Lab/LD swing of 7% which may be hard to make meaningful for any forecast for Lab/Con seats.

    Thus allocating 1/4 of the LD vote in each seat to Lab plus 1/12 LD to Cons would on the face of it produce a more accurate forecast.

    It may be of course that the conventional method whilst getting more seats wrong in 2015 will still be close with the totals, we shall see?

    (Scotland even more difficult).

  31. @ Anthony

    IMO, polling will continue to show that UKIP aren’t taking votes from Labour. When/ if polling of marginals shows UKIP is really harming the Tory’s chances of a majority, an in/out referendum will be promised; UKIP will say they’ve achieved what they wanted & their candidates will be pulled.
    8-)

  32. Colin,
    I have never bought a NI title since Wapping or bought Sky at home but I do read the papers in coffee shops and watch footie in the pub so my boycott of Murdoch is not pure.

  33. AW:

    “Mr. Pickles picking up Ms Dorries.”

    I can’t see anyone picking him up and that’s for sure.

    [That’s not litigious is it?]

  34. I’ve never watched Sky, nor bought a Murdoch paper. I used to follow Celtic & the Gunners but I rarely see a game now. :-(

    I don’t recall ever having bought a Starbucks, I always preferred Waterstones to Amazon; I am also avoiding Boots & I am going to try other search engines instead of Google.

    IMO, It’s time for a subsription or public service search engine that doesn’t plague people with adverts!
    8-)

  35. @ Colin

    I quite admire what he [Murdoch] has built.
    ——————-
    Despite the methods used to build it?

  36. @ MitM

    Maggie Thatcher isn’t all that popular and yet Carol Thatcher (her daughter) WON I’m A Celebrity a few years ago.
    ————————
    Mrs T is an ex-politcian; her daughter never was one. Also, there was the sympathy vote from the lefties… imagine having Mrs T as your mother; poor Carol etc. ;-)

  37. Sorry, Anthony but Colin was often posting about this subject & has been indulging in ongoing ‘show & tell’ regarding Sally Bercow so I thought he deserved an update. Seemingly my ‘show & tell’ on the subject isn’t as welcome as Colin’s…

  38. @Colin

    I think News Corp was put together more by acquisition of existing companies than building new ones.

  39. Amber:

    “the gunners”

    I knew you had something about you.

  40. Uh oh.

    Cameron “has identified European commission plans to promote economic growth as a key area for cuts.”

    fantastic.

  41. @RiN – “This is a horrible poll for the Tories, they are hardly losing any votes in their safe seats…….”

    That’s an interesting take. I didn’t follow it up, but someone mentioned on here the other day the fact that the Tories gained differential swing in the marginals, performing better in many of these seats outside London that the national swing.

    We can’t draw any firm conclusions from one poll in one safe seat, but there must be a risk that the drift against them in greater in the marginals, due to the larger gains in 2010 unwinding.

  42. Rumours (twitter – so real rumours only) that Sarah Teather is going to defect to Labour.

  43. @Colin.

    Yep, I’m a subscriber to Sky having eventually succumbed many years ago, partly because of my own sporting addictions but mainly by dint of my two sports mad sons, when they were much younger, nagging me to death to watch Premiership football. Still doesn’t stop me despising Murdoch and totally ignoring all of the other ghastly dumbed-down Sky channels that come with the package. He got me when he hoovered up exclusive broadcasting rights to all the sports I love, but I’m desperately hoping that BT can start to break his deathly, monopolistic grip where Setanta and ESPN sadly failed. Nothing would delight me more but I will still sup with the devil until those happy days arrive. The ideal would be BBC back into sports broadcasting again in a big way, but I fear those days have gone forever.

    Don’t use Amazon but have the odd Starbucks coffee. You’re not a Louise Mensch-ite on these matters are you? She was justifiably lampooned, mercilessly, by Hislop and Merton on HIGNFY for criticising the “hypocrisy” of the Occupy protesters at St Pauls when they had a Starbucks coffee to keep warm during their winter sit-in protests. She tried the lefty hypocrite line of attack, so beloved by those on the right, but crashed and burned.

    Careful, Colin, the thought police will be out soon to check whenever you, as an assiduous critic of all that is publicly provided and financed, is seen asking a police officer for assistance, visiting an NHS A&E ward, walking a council maintained pavement, picking up a state pension (handout?)………………………, well, I won’t go on because you know how it goes, don’t you? lol

  44. @ Alec

    Sarah Teather’s majority over Labour is tiny. Labour will likely get her seat at the next election anyway.
    8-)

  45. @ALEC

    If this is true,this could be the beginning of the end of the coalition and consolidation of the left under Labour.

  46. @Amberstar – I gathered that, but this isn’t really the point of defections. They create a narrative and can act to destabilise parties and their leaders.

    For any opposition to pick up defectors is a real coup, particularly MPs. For Ed M, the only thing to top this would be for a Tory MP to cross the floor, but he would happily accept any Lib Deb. He may even be more keen to bag Lib Dem MPs, as uniting the anti Tory vote would be an effective enough game plan on its own.

  47. SMukesh – it isn’t, it is just twitter being the font of all bullshit as usual. LibDem Chief whip has tweeted her response as being she’d rather put needles in her eyes than defect to Labour, which is a pretty clear rebuttal.

  48. AW

    That’s a bit extreme! I’d rather join any party (even the BNP) than stick pins in my eyes.

  49. Disappointed with AW’s comment at 4.23. As Smukesh wrote, if true, it could have been the end of the coalition or the replacement of Clegg, Alexander & Laws. Either way, this would indicate the Lib Dems moving left. As an Ex Lib Dem who resigned following the NHS fiasco this would be a situation I would applaud.

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