The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out already on their website here. The topline figures with changes from last month are CON 32%(-1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 13%(-1), UKIP 7%(+2).

The UKIP score of 7% is lower than we’ve seen in many online polls, but is actually the highest that ICM have ever had them in their polls for the Guardian, presumably an effect of the coverage from the police elections (the poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, so after results from the elections had started to appear).

ICM also asked a Best Prime Minister question, finding figures very much in line with the more regular YouGov tracker version of the question. David Cameron leads Ed Miliband by 33% to 25%, with Nick Clegg on 7% and 21% saying none.


239 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 32, LAB 40, LD 13, UKIP 7”

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  1. ” After female votes proved decisive in the American presidential election, the party will be especially dismayed to learn that it remains 17 points behind among women, who prefer Labour by a 47%-30% margin.”

    From the ICM poll, that is obviously the most important point. I wonder if that is in anyway influenced by the loss of family allowance. However that poll now puts labour into poll position for the next GE, its now theirs to lose, makes you wonder how they’ll manage it.

  2. Can anyone tell me if Boris is a deficit denier, he calling for an end to austerity and cutting taxes, but he doesn’t say anything about more spending cuts and indeed was against the housing benefit changes. I get the feeling that he has no ideology or solid policy beliefs

    (I cut out the offending bit AW)

  3. Past his sell-by date unfortunately. By the way does anyone think Andrew Mitchell will face charges of corruption – seems a possibility.

  4. “But with Miliband stagnating in the prime ministerial stakes, while both Cameron and Clegg fall back, the real winner is the anti-political vote. The proportion of voters insisting that “none of them” would make the best PM had been 14% in early 2011, but that proportion has increased by half to stand at 21%.”

    This message is coming through from so many sources, that the UK parties would be wise to take heed – unless they are happy to continue with Buggins turn among the ruling class.

  5. David
    ‘However that poll now puts labour into poll position for the next GE’

    Are you going in for tabloid punning David?

  6. I suppose the monthly ICM, given their method, gives us an idea of what the 2015 GE would look like (now).

  7. In light of all the polling evidence about needing to win over the centre ground vacated by the LibDem collapse, I still can’t understand the hiring of Lynton Crosby. Particularly considering he already had a chance to run the national Conservative campaign in 2005! We know he ‘won’ two London Mayor election campaigns, but as has to be repeated the General Election is a referendum on a party not single personality. If Crosby bases the campaign around promoting Cameron as a likeable personality, while allowing latitude for the party to run to the right, it just isn’t going to work.

    There’s a huge risk that this prompts a ‘realignment’ of the Centre, with Labour becoming the natural centre moderate party, and the Conservatives becoming the reactionary right party. Ed M seems to be staking out grounds to make such a realignment happen, but I just don’t see any action from the Conservatives to reflect that the nation has really really changed since the 80s and the deflation of the Libdems has opened up a fault line allowing a dramatic shift in the political landscape.

  8. @OldNat FPT

    I was given the opportunity to be a liaison officer to the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo once. That kind of thing came round the office occasionally, and it’s a measure of their desperation that it filtered down to pondlife like me. I was sorely tempted and I’d’ve had proper bodyguards with Big Guns (“Cool!”). But the only time I usually see gaping wounds is in black-and-white photos with a ruler next to them. Coping with collating data on screaming babies with their arms blown off was entirely beyond me. So to my shame I didn’t put my name forward. Some things you can’t kiss better.

    So although I get the joke of your website, Africa evokes emotions within me that are at best ambiguous.

    @Reggieside FPT

    You said “…That wisdom poll for the telegraph has the lib dems on 18%! They must be using some strange methodology to have them that high. All the bi election results very much suggest that you gov (and most other polls) are correct in having the lib dems on under 10%…”

    They are measuring different things. Polls measure what people say they would do if there was a general election tomorrow. The wisdom index measures what people think other people will do at the May 2015 election. This far out, neither are a reliable guide to what people will do at the may 2015 election because people haven’t made their minds up yet.

    @Roly FPT

    Although current-day Normandy is indisputably France, in 1066 the Normans would not have considered themselves French in the way that we understand it. The Normans (“Northmen”) were the descendents of Norse raiding parties who’d settled in North-West France. They were poorer but harder than their more aristocratic Frankish neighbours: old-money vs new-money, or hard bastichs vs posh boys if you will.

    rgdsm

  9. Just as a supplement to R in N, (prior to snip) I asked my Family in NL what they thought of the similar measures there (VAT up, benefit cuts, higher taxes on higher paid and general austerity). They are on top whack (or is it wack) and i had expected moans but in fact the reaction was that the mistake was the VAT hike, cuts in government contracts (trickle out) and they would have not minded the IT to have gone up instead.

    In other words, their opinion was that it was better to have work and pay tax than to be, as people at the sharp end, possibly getting a cold shower greater than the tax demand.

    They spend, and I wonder if the same is true here and that’s what is on the mind of the London Mayor?

  10. The BBC’s finally woken up to the implications of the “bedroom tax” on housing benefit, at least it made it onto a feature on PM tonight. I suspect that this could become quite an issue over the coming months. As things stand, up to now the issue has enjoyed a remarkable lack of salience and those affected (judging from the PM report) seem blissfully unaware of the £80 a month financial storm about to hit them.

  11. @JAYBLANC
    Its still the economy stupid. There are 2 and a half years to go to the GE. If Osborn cannot achieve some sort of silver lining and a substantial reduction in debt, Labour will win. This is regardless of any academic positioning around the centre or centre left. However, a more satisfactory outcome on Europe, ( not in your eyes, but in the eyes of the vast majority,) plus reasonable improvement in the economy, with much to crow about regarding debt reduction, will have the opposite effect. Such an outcome will be the reason for a Tory victory, not a political obsessives judgement on whether they are to far right of centre.

  12. Martyn
    Thank you so much for the history lesson. However, my little ditty to RIN, was merely the sort of old buffer/ idiot Tory, comment he so enjoys from me.

  13. RH

    “Its still the economy stupid. There are 2 and a half years to go to the GE. If Osborn cannot achieve some sort of silver lining and a substantial reduction in debt, Labour will win. This is regardless of any academic positioning around the centre or centre left. However, a more satisfactory outcome on Europe, ( not in your eyes, but in the eyes of the vast majority,) plus reasonable improvement in the economy, with much to crow about regarding debt reduction, will have the opposite effect.”

    I find myself agreeing with that. If Osborne can make a dent in the deficit and get the economy working, he will probably deserve to win, and may well do so. The reverse applies obviously, and more debt and little growth will get him and the Government what they deserve also.

  14. Looks like Japan could be in real trouble, the lengths they are going to to sell their bonds are really getting silly

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-09/women-prefer-men-holding-government-bonds-japan-finance-ministry-ad-says.html

  15. Quite a high number for UKIP for ICM, could this mean a big jump in other polls after Corby? Why is ICM so far off of other polls (and elections if Corby is what one goes by) regarding the LD and UKIP?

  16. Obama now leads Romney in the popular vote by 3.1%. With California and NY still counting votes.

  17. @ RIN

    End of the world on 21/12/12, so bonds/money will no longer be important. Even the ugly poor will get a sh*g on 20/12/12.

    There are many people who believe the end is coming and in todays paper there is an article about a French mountainside where the Police have stopped people going. Presumably something to do with massive tidal surges. Some are predicting a massive solar storm and others a polar shift.

    Just in case, I won’t be doing any Christmas shopping until 22/12/12, as I hate wasting money. :)

  18. “Its still the economy stupid. There are 2 and a half years to go to the GE. If Osborn cannot achieve some sort of silver lining and a substantial reduction in debt, Labour will win.”

    Not necessarily. Obama got re-elected despite the American economy being in a dire state and unemployment being very high (along with public confidence in Obama and his economic policies low). These are unusual times. Obviously if the UK economy is in a poor state come 2015, it will be much harder for the Tories to win the GE….but they could still get elected anyway (like Obama) if voters think Labour would be even worse. At the moment, the one promising thing for the Conservatives is that despite the fact that the public don’t like David Cameron or his party’s austerity measures/economic policy, they dislike Ed Miliband even more and haven’t taken to Labour and their alternative economic policies. Whether this would still be enough to save the Tories if the economy doesn’t improve is, of course, an open question.

  19. @Raf

    Patrick Murphy has been labelled “elected” for Fla-18 on the Secretary of State’s website today. Needless to say Allen West has not conceeded: “We will be discussing our next course of action tomorrow.”

  20. Another lame mid term opinion poll for Labour following a very unremarkable performance in an easy by election .

    The next election is as wide open as ever

  21. Billy Bob
    I’ll try you for a view as well. Do you have one on Senator (elect) Warren’s intention to force a vote on filibuster tactics by the (some) Reps?

  22. @Billy Bob
    “Patrick Murphy has been labelled “elected” for Fla-18 on the Secretary of State’s website today. Needless to say Allen West has not conceeded: “We will be discussing our next course of action tomorrow.”

    Good news on both counts. If West continues in this vein all the more chance he’ll also lose the next election as well :)

  23. Howard

    This was talked about in “left wing” circles before the election and it does make sense, but the party leadership on both sides quite likes the filibuster I think. Elizabeth warren taking the lead on this shows that she is not prepared to give up her loose cannon image and will already be making Obama uneasy. The democrat leadership will be under strong pressure to give warren a good committee seat, something to do with banking and she is well known for not taking prisoners. To say that wall st don’t like her is like saying the pope is a little bit catholic and the democrat leadership will be under pressure from wall st to not allow warren to rock the boat. Last time they lobbied against her they won and she was passed over as head of the consumer protection agency which she created almost single handed. Those lobbyist must be regretting it now cos it pushed her to try for the senate seat which she won despite being a political newcomer and she raised serious amounts of money from small donors, the senate race in mass was the most expensive senate race ever. You might say I’m a big fan!

  24. CHASGLAS.

    I agree very much with your view of the by elections and the poll lead.

    However, I must admit that the fact that Labour is still in the came with 2 and a Half years to go to the GE and also my retirement from teaching, at the age of 60, was not forseen by me when Ed M became the tigmoo leader.

  25. The idea that if the economy improves Cons win, if it doesn’t they lose is ludicrously simplistic.

  26. Howard

    Don’t know how much you know about Elizabeth warren but this here is from the very start of her senate bid

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcFDF87-SdQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player

  27. Howard

    Here’s a spoof on her which is real funny and also says something bout her
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu61aU4N8mM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

  28. @Roland Haines, AmbivalentSupporter

    It’s almost already too late for the Conservatives to have any benefit of an economic recovery.

    It’s very very important to understand that Quality of Living only improves after a long lag to any “Economic” indicated recovery. Because it takes a long time for people to get new jobs or have their hours increased back to full employment or move back into the job they trained for… And then it takes a long time for most of them to pay down the debts they accrued… And then it takes a long term to get back any confidence to start spending money on improving their standard of living…

    Realistically, and I said this back in 2010, the conservatives need to enter 2013 with the economy already showing a strong stable recovery. And to keep that up till 2014. Only Getting Economic Recovery in 2014 means that the Conservatives will not get any electoral reward for austerity policy.

    The critical figures for GDP turn around are this quarter and the next. There needs to be strong consistent growth to match the past quarter. Considering there won’t be another Olympics, this might be a problem.

    And to bring up Obama… It’s important to note that while the ‘Economic’ figure news for him looks bad in the figures, looking at ‘Economic Confidence’ figures tells an entirely different story. That’s because the various levels of US government enacted policies to try and protect standards of living rather than go for European style austerity. This has resulted in Standards of Living actually recovering a little faster than just looking at GDP and Unemployment would say.

    Now, the Conservatives could u-turn on Austerity to try and improve economic confidence, but it’s probably too late there too.

  29. Paul.
    I believe that if the economy improves, with falling unemployment, inflation and deficit, then the Coalition will be back after the next GE, but with Nick C in Europe. Vincent Cable will become deputy PM.

    The Labour Party might well ask Tony Blair to return as interim leader, and take the party into the 2020 landslide.

  30. And altho it’s not a straight comparison…

    US Economic Confidence figures from Gallup,
    November 2011 : -42
    November 2012 : -10
    Improvement of +32 (And Obama Won.)

    UK Economic Confidence figures from GFK NOP
    November 2011: -32
    November 2012: -30
    Improvement of +2

  31. @ CHRISLANE1945

    “I believe that if the economy improves, with falling unemployment, inflation and deficit, then the Coalition will be back”

    To have these three within the next two and a half years, is the sure recipe for Labour landslide, so it won’t happen (well, democratically it cannot be done).

  32. Jayblanc

    The confidence figures in Nov 2012 were strange there was a sudden jump in confidence pre election, some say that is common before a pres election but it was very odd

  33. @ Chasglas

    “Another lame mid term opinion poll for Labour following a very unremarkable performance in an easy by election .
    The next election is as wide open as ever.”

    I agree with RiN about Labour not needing to anything else, but bringing out of its own voters and keeping the “defected” LibDems. And those LibDems didn’t defect because of the economy…

    Everything else is irrelevant (I don’t respond to partisan comments about by-elections and polls).

  34. @ RiN

    I made the point a few days ago (and was criticised for it :-)) that in terms of “feeling” the current crisis is nowhere close to the 1991 (on both sides of the Atlantic). In the UK it is the length of it that matters (SMEs feeling that it isn’t worth), in the US the SME sector’s view (that they can pull through).

    FED is committed policies that suit the administration. Currently the BoE does the same here. Would the new people do the same? There is a gathering view in the BoE that monetary policy should be tightened and fiscal policy let looser. The government would go berserk in such a scenario (and probably BoE would be advised by fellow central bankers not to do it).

  35. I’m terribly sorry, my keyboard decided that it does a kind of predictive spelling and thus leaves out words (prepositions) and letters. I will have to investigate its behaviour…

  36. 2015 is not too far away, the arguments used to be” it will be about the economy” and if there will be a recovery then… as already said it’s too late for the feel good factor, and with lots and lots of cuts still to come it is looking really grim

    Now I see people trying to convince themselves that support will come back and everything will be rosy…

    The LDs made a massive miscalculation when they assumed that the electorate that voted for them would forgive them.

    The disenchanted Labour voters that thought the LD were a pseudo mini labour had never dreamed that the LDs would support a Conservative government, they too believed in what the leadership of the LDs said, until it was too late… you only have to go and visit LDV and look through the archives from March/April 2010 and then read the aftermath of the election. Lesson learnt I think and that’s why very few will return to the LDs.

    I do not think it is just Labour disenchanted voters who have turned away from LDs there is a small section who are slipping away to non mainstream parties Greens and UKIP.

    This problem for the LDs is this is not midterm blues they lost support before the end of 2010 a few short months, of course they have a core of support in 8 – 10 constituencies but I think that they are very vulnerable to Lab and Con outside their core seats.

    Expecting the Cons to improve on 2010 is a massive ask which I don’t believe will happen, in fact I think they will have major losses, the media and the doctors party (protect the NHS) is going to hurt them hard. I am afraid once it hits the media about why doctors feel they have to stand against the Government it will also play hard in other seats across the country, just that one issue is going to cost them dear… does not matter if the doctors win or lose

    Most people trust their doctors I know I do, I do not trust my MP to do what is in the country or peoples best interest…all about image and promises… when those doctors stand up and say the government is selling out the NHS…

    I think it’s over… spin it anyway they want most people will believe the doctor…

    That’s my opinion for what it is worth, a Lab victory

  37. @TOJIM

    I largely agree with your points (especially the NHS, less so about the economy – people can see those sprouts easily, so the time lag is not so serious, the problem is that there won’t be any sprout that they would like to pick or nurture), but I think Conservatives will pick up a few extra points, because if the scenario is what you described, they will have to polarise the opinions.

  38. @Howard

    Did you see this?

    I didn’t realise that US senators even engage in filibuster as a way to register disapproval of legislation proposed in the Canadian Parliament. That is probably taking things a bit far.

    h
    ttp://minnesotaindependent.com/56417/franken-criticizes-gop-perversion-of-the-filibuster

  39. Laszlo

    Well the BoE has expanded its balance sheet more as a % than other central banks and now sees that it doesn’t work or at least it suffers from diminishing returns, but I really don’t see they have any choise but to continue, interest rates must stay below 1% if not the economy blows sky high. interestingly it would be more difficult for the BoE to keep interest rates low if the govt wasn’t running a deficit I think

  40. One thing about abnormally low interest rates is that they may have the effect of depressing confidence, at least it seems that way to me

  41. @Roly

    Thank you.

    Rgdsm

  42. France downgraded by moodys

  43. I tend to think @Jayblanc is correct in saying the next couple of quarters are the critical time for the feel good factor. If growth remains poor or negative by next spring, then the risk to Cameron is that a weary electorate will start to harden their attitudes on economic competence, and shift their attention from the mistakes of his predecessors to his own failure to deliver. the risk then becomes a voteless recovery, with even a well performing economy not helping their chances as voters stop giving them any credit.

    This is the kind of landscape that is toxic to any incumbent, as they no longer reap any credit for an improving situation, while the innate fear of changing the government seems less risky as things are looking more generally positive. This did for Major in 1997.

    I think it is still genuinely too early to start writing anyone off for 2015, but with the current quarter off to a very poor start, I think 2013 will dawn without any real signs of growth, and quite possibly with some painful employment data. This is running out, but there are still a few grains of sand left in the egg timer.

  44. UMP’s internal commission have declared Jean-Francois Copé winner after an acrimonious contest for the party presidency, with 50.03% of the vote, 98 votes ahead of François Fillon.

  45. @Paul,

    “The idea that if the economy improves Cons win, if it doesn’t they lose is ludicrously simplistic.”

    I agree.

  46. Why is anyone who didn’t vote tory in 2010 going to vote for them at the next election?

    Becasue the tories have to add at least 3% to there vote share on 2010 just to remain the biggest party – let along get a majority. how is this going to happen? Such an improvement by an incumbent has never happend in any election since the war – if ever.

    The lib dem collapse is not ‘mid term blues’ – their poll rating collapsed rapildly as soon as they went into coalition with the tories and then declined further to the steady bed rock of 10%.

    Many of these voters will have been voting lib dem tactically, others will have seen the lib dems as a left liberal alternative to the tories. What is going to make these voters vote tory after five years of the present government? remember the tories have not got anything close to 40% in a GE in twenty years.

    On top of that the tories have to deal with UKIP, now Im sure UKIP will not get anyhting like 10% in a general election – but their vote share will certinaly be higher than it was in 2010.

    Put these factors together and it will take a lot more than an improving economy to keep Camerons in power – it will take a miracle.

    AS a several of us have been saying on here for while – we are in a wholde diferent ball game now, basing predictions on the voting patter of pre 2010 is pretty much pointless.

  47. @JayBlanc,

    That’s not necessarily because the US economy improved from 2011 to 2012…it didn’t. As someone else said, the indicators only improved drastically in the last few months before the election. This is probably because people just had more optimism in Obama’s economic policies than Romney’s as the election got nearer, so their perceptions of him changed.

  48. I see the scene is being set for the annual anti EU ‘veto bounce’. I just wonder this time if it will score. I suppose if the reporting of the EU budget is as it is being presented by BBC Westminster hacks, as I observed this evening, stays, then there is a fair chance.

    I mean, if the PM wants X and France, Germany Sweden, etc, etc,…….. do as well, where do you get a ‘veto’?

    As an aside, on what basis did anyone accuse the BBC of anti-government bias?

  49. “Becasue the tories have to add at least 3% to there vote share on 2010 just to remain the biggest party – let along get a majority. how is this going to happen? Such an improvement by an incumbent has never happend in any election since the war – if ever.”

    Not necessarily. You are assuming that Labour’s vote will remain high.

  50. @Billy Bob

    You said “…UMP’s internal commission have declared Jean-Francois Copé winner after an acrimonious contest for the party presidency, with 50.03% of the vote, 98 votes ahead of François Fillon…”

    That’s a pity. He was great in Buffy, fine in Firefly and, if he’s levelled out in Castle, well he deserves the rest…
    …oh, I thought you meant Nathan Fillion.

    Pause. Tumbleweed.

    I’ll get me coat… :-)

    Rgdsm

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