The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. It has topline figures, with changes from their last online poll a month ago, of CON 31%(-2), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 8%(-1). The twelve point lead is the largest ComRes have shown this Parliament in either their online or their phone polls.

The fieldwork was done between Wednesday and Friday, so most of it would have been finished before the results of Thursday’s election. It is too early to expect any impact from them in the polls. Normal caveats about the poll apply anyway: sure, it could be the sign of a further shift to Labour, but equally it could be normal variation within the margin of error.

UPDATE: Tonight we also have the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer. Their topline figures, with changes from a fortnight ago, are CON 32%(+2), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1).


195 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. What intrigues me about the current polling stats., is what difference can people detect between the two main parties, how can they differentiate? It seems to me, that both Labour and Tory are centrist, a few minor operational touches and they would be one and the same. Both parties are headed by rich, Oxbridge type early career politicians, driven by personal financial aspiration, eyeing the main chance post career, to enter the global influence networks. A pattern is emerging, we are incubating future global, ‘celebrities’ who seek their fortunes, as did the Brits of old, exploiting the ignorance of the Colonials. As our country fights against itself, we send out emissaries carrying our virtuous message, a host of middle-class, pensioned off, civil servants, protected by gun-toting Special Branch officers, in chauffeured, bullet-proof limousines, to lecture the slavering natives, for a bounty fit for Princes. I don’t know about you lot, but I am proud of our political class. :-)

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  2. @ Ken

    Now that’s a tad cynical isn’t it !

    ;-)

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  3. JOHN B DICK

    I suspect that non-voting might be the response for some LDs – especially in England where there is more limited choice of parties.

    UK turnout figures since 1983

    1983: 72.7%, 1987: 75.3%, 1992: 77.7%, 1997: 71.4%, 2001: 59.4%, 2005: 61.4%, 2010: 65.1%

    It’s notable that most of the increased turnout in 2010 came from LD voters – 2,021,927 of them – most of whom didn’t seem to come from shifts from other parties.

    Given the consequences of that vote, many may decide not to bother voting again.

    The levels of those saying they intend to vote is ludicrously high – 8)% in last YG.

    A reversion to the 60% mark may be more likely.

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  4. @ChrisLane1945
    ”Ed is making a speech appealing to the ‘right’ tomorrow on the EU.”

    Left-right distinctions are a bit blurred nowadays when it comes to the EU. As reported in the FT:
    Ed Miliband has promised Labour will adopt a “hard-headed” realism to its future approach to Europe, in a signal that he wants to move the party away from the strongly pro-European stance of Tony Blair’s last government.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6298f378-3179-11e2-b68b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fbrussels%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz2CbCJhpbL

    If we must define this on a left-right spectrum, In terms of the internal politics of the Labour Party at least, I would suggest that such a shift would amount to a shift to the left(i.e. away from the Blairite right’s perspective).

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  5. Correction

    The levels of those in polls saying they intend to vote is ludicrously high – 80% in last YG.

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  6. ANDYO……………No place for cynicism on this site, we are paragons of virtue since we all support the same side, it just has two names. :-)

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  7. @Oldnat

    So 80% of English ex-Lib now Lab say they will vote — that does seem high — is it higher than those who are not former Lib voters, but who say they will vote Lab in England?

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  8. The conspiracy about a hidden ruling class is absolutely true the lizard people bred human stock for government the only way they can be spotted is they all have to attend a leading university and never hold a job outside politic’s that is of any worth.
    The Lizard people also bred people to take up roles in the media the entertainment industry who can be spotted on QI.
    They work closely with the dinosaur people who bred people for the trade union’s and reporters for the Mail.
    Who intern work for the wishful thinking tribe who post a lot on these pages so the circle is complete.

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  9. @Ken
    LOL
    :-)

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  10. ANDYO

    No. 80% of all respondents expressed a VI. Others said “Don’t Know” (which I usually take to mean most probably won’t vote).

    15% of 2010 Cons were WNV/DK : 9% of 2010 Labs : 29% of LDs.

    All of those seem too high, but the likelihood is that more ex-LD voters won’t bother to vote.

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  11. @Oldnat

    So for the 2015 UK general election what those 2,000,000 people who voted Lib in 2010 (in England) do is the key…

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  12. @Oldnat…

    …and as you have just pointed out — they ARE less likely to vote. I thought they were flakey — hence my worry.

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  13. ANDYO

    The 2m are the extra LD voters compared with 2001.

    The 4.8m who voted LD in 2001 may behave differently.

    Whether, given the general antipathy to politicians, those who voted for other parties bother voting remains to be seen.

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  14. Hardly surprising that politicians are held in low esteem.

    Like Starbucks they “operate within the rules”.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2012-11-18/minister-defends-expenses-claim-for-second-home/

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  15. @Oldnat

    Thanks. I still feel the 2m are the key to this puzzle — were they Lab before Iraq, then went Lib? If so they are ‘returning’ to Lab. How many of them will vote in the GE?

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  16. Ken

    Labour and Tories are very different in some ways. They don’t share the same vision for the UK economy. The Tories seem happy to have a long period of stagnation, if it means that the deficit is eventually eliminated. Labour on the other hand want to be more active in helping to stimulate growth and are perhaps more opimistic in some ways. The fundamental philosophy of Tories is that only the private sector can really create proper growth and will wait for this to happen. Labour would be more active in seeking public/private partnerships to help drive growth, even if it means having a deficit for longer.

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  17. OLDNAT…………Don’t be ‘orrible, they do their best……….David Miliband MP South Shields…last spoke in House, July 3rd.,
    2 written questions, one of the worst attendance and voting records in the House, But, ‘ang on, earnings outside Parliament…..£ 416,000, including : VantagePoint Cleantech Advisory Council, California, £90,000. It’s tough at the top ! :-)

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  18. ANDYO

    Of course, raw popular vote doesn’t say much about swing voting.

    Compare the 2010 and 1997 vote

    Con -2.8m : Lab -1m : LD +1.6m : Total reduction for these 3 parties -2.2m.

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  19. KEN

    And there’s Gordon Brown!

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  20. Can’t be worse than [Gordon Brown] since he lost -surely?

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  21. ANDYO

    Fraser Nelson discussing the barrenness of the UK parties, and its effect on voting.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9555528/Our-politics-is-bursting-with-life-its-the-parties-that-are-dying.html

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  22. R HUCKLE………….I agree, but to me, by the time they’ve warmed their bums on the seats, all this, ‘vision’ stuff ends up with dead civilians in Iraq.

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  23. Now, please, let’s not be horrible to Gordon.
    I do genuinely still admire him.
    He was the only one who seemed to know what to do in 2008, when the World Economy went tits-up.

    :-)

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  24. @ Old Nat

    This is OT but yesterday I had work. It was super casual Saturday for dress code and I wore my Che Guevarra-style Rose Bird t-shirt. Some of my coworkers wanted to know who she was (which was kinda cool). I realize now that it was inevitable that I’d vote for Prop 34. I mean how could I own a Rose Bird t-shirt and not vote for that prop, right?

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  25. OLDNAT…………….One of our main exports is political expertise, although I believe our top earner has a cunning tax plan, The Tony Blair Foundation. :-)

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  26. SOCALLIBERAL

    Didn’t Rose Bird’s fellow justices agree with many of her decisions on death penalty judgements?

    Why was she the one to be pilloried?

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  27. Apologies Anthony-slip of the pen.

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  28. Starbucks is something of an emblematic story of modern capitalism

    Utter crap of a product, packaged up as a lifestyle choice to ignorant consumers, marketed aggressively, with tigerish, borderline illegal tax avoidance practices.

    And there are still folk who think that EM’s “responsible capitalism” misjudges the zeitgeist.

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  29. ANDYO / OLDNAT……………Gordon Brown, 12 months earnings outside Parliament…… £ 900,286 ! Not bad for an old bluffer. :-)

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  30. LEFTYLAMPTON

    “responsible politicians” would suit the zeitgeist too.

    UK parties – Utter crap products, packaged up as lifestyle choices to ignorant consumers, marketed aggressively, with tigerish, borderline illegal expenses claims.

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  31. AW
    If you’re there, and if you have a minute, UKPR polling average is looking old and tired…
    :-)

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  32. My local starbucks is usually full of people taking the p*ss — buy one espresso, and sit there for five hours using the free wifi. People are not as stupid as some may think!
    ;-)

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  33. AndyO

    Leave OldNat to his anti-Labour fantasies.

    He’s playing with the numbers. Here’s a plausible argument for what actually happened.

    The million or so voters he is talking about are the ones who Blair pissed off. They didn’t vote for Blair in 05, safe in the knowledge that he would win anyway – abstaining salves their consciences. by 2010, Clegg had done a job on them, convincing them that he and his party combined the Caring Capitalism of Blair with a cuddlier, less authoritarian soft-left approach to human rights. They voted in their droves for that approach.

    Here’s my thesis. Those million+ folks are (were) idealistic, soft-left wooly heads. They thought that they could pick and choose the nice bits that they wanted to hear. They have been given a crash-course in real grown-up politics and realise that they are responsible for Osborne being in No11. To mis-quote The Who, they won’t be soft-headed again. They realise that, from their perspective, 15 is a straight choice between a warts-and-all Labour Govt or a warts-is-all Tory one. Unless EM starts peeling babies, rolling them in salt and eating them on cocktail sticks[1], they are going to vote Labour.

    [1] Or worse; tacking right-wards.

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  34. @Lefty..
    My worries may be unfounded then!
    The key for Lab is to keep that 1m, and gotv. As you say going right (eg EdM going off on one about the EU) could be disastrous.
    :-)

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  35. LEFTYLAMPTON

    Alas for your thesis, it is based on a wholly partisan view of politics.

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  36. Fwiw, ” …Mr Brown’s sole personal earnings are his salary as an MP because he has also renounced the prime ministerial pension he was entitled to receive immediately he retired as PM.”:

    h
    ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17072715

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  37. AndyO

    I don’t see EM criticising the EU as being necessarily a right-ward shift. There are very strong reasons why the EU can be criticised from the Left – biggest of all being the insane insistence that fiscal contraction can pull Europe out of its hole.

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  38. Old Nat

    You may well be right. Although I’d be checking the old parable of the plank in my eye if I were you ;)

    We’ll see come 15. Care for a wee wager?

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  39. BILLY BOB……….Gordon has, ‘earned’ over £ 1,400,000, since he left office, speaking in all sorts of weird places for staggering amounts of money, mostly private companies by the way. :-) However, he has channeled this money into various schemes which aren’t publicly accountable, therefore no accounts are available. Transparent it ‘aint. :-)

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  40. More here Ken if you are interested:

    h
    ttp://gordonandsarahbrown.com/office-of-gordon-sarah-brown/

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  41. BILLY BOB………..Thanks, like the banker that I am, I’ll have a dig around, Sarah’s Directorship of Harrods will be a start ! ;-)

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  42. @Ken

    You really think Sarah Brown will publish that on her website and then try to avoid tax or something? What are you implying?

    I’ve gone to the trouble of showing you where to find out about Gordon Brown’s arragements… where all the money he has raised is going, and that is all you can come back up with?

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  43. BILLY BOB…………. I have a natural distrust of politicians of all stripes, they have public and private faces. Gordon and Sarah socialise with New York glitterati in the Hamptons, although they are usually guests of Gavyn Davis the ex Goldman Sachs boss, who of course benefited greatly from Treasury work when GB was Chancellor. Don’t tell me you trust a man who happily socialises with, and is a regular guest of, New York bankers ? :-)

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  44. They are all in it together.

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  45. Interesting bits from the latest ComRes -
    1408 respondents (weighted) for their headline VI question –
    Con 31, Lab 43, Lib 10, UKIP 8

    For only the 5-10 sure to vote (1538 respondents with DKs removed) -
    Con 29.4, Lab 42.2, Lib 10.2, UKIP 8.4

    But asked what they ‘generally consider themselves’ (1602 respondents with DKs removed, brackets compared to 5-10s sure)-
    Con 34.4 (+5), Lab 40.6 (-1.6), Lib 11.4 (+1.2), UKIP 3.9 (-4.5)

    Perhaps this would be a good indicator of a ‘protest vote’ and how many would ‘come home’?
    If this is a likely figure, the Lab back to Lib is relatively small and Lab’s support is pretty secure but UKIP support halves, returning it seems to the Cons.

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