The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. It has topline figures, with changes from their last online poll a month ago, of CON 31%(-2), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 8%(-1). The twelve point lead is the largest ComRes have shown this Parliament in either their online or their phone polls.

The fieldwork was done between Wednesday and Friday, so most of it would have been finished before the results of Thursday’s election. It is too early to expect any impact from them in the polls. Normal caveats about the poll apply anyway: sure, it could be the sign of a further shift to Labour, but equally it could be normal variation within the margin of error.

UPDATE: Tonight we also have the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer. Their topline figures, with changes from a fortnight ago, are CON 32%(+2), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1).


195 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. As for the polls; what on earth are we to make of them? Opinium shows a narrowing Labour lead, down from 10 to 7 points, yet ComRes showss, at more or less the same time, a record Labour lead in this Parliament of 12%. YouGov, meanwhile, trundles along its time honoured way with an average Labour lead of 10%, yet occasionally has the Tories at the dizzying heights of 35%.

    Forgetting the PCC election farce, the three by-elections gave us a better snapshot of the state of the respective parties and while the swings in Manchester suggest a 10% Labour lead, the Corby result and 13% swing suggest more a ComRes gap between Labour and Tory.

    I’m inclined to go with real votes in real elections and I would have thought, going on the evidence of Thursday’s by-election results, that the YouGov 35%s for the Tories recently are overstating their support a tad.

  2. CB11

    Yeah-conspiracy theories do popup from time to time I agree.

    A recent example started on Twitter ( well started at the BBC actually) had the usual lizard researchers on UKPR talking about evil men from the highest echelons a certain political party in an unholy web of depravity & abuse.

    We both laughed at these Pavlovian responses-I distinctly remember.

    …but this Times article is interesting. I think Lord L might have read it too.

  3. @CROSSBAT11

    You said “…As for the polls; what on earth are we to make of them?…”

    Labour has a poll lead of ~10 points over the Conservatives. This has been the case for some months now. Day-to-day changes in the lead are normal variation (oooh, I made a pun!)

    Rgdsm

  4. A question for Socal if I may.

    First this link:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-warren/filibuster-reform_b_2136800.html

    Then my question is ‘why were Democrats unwilling or unable to employ the same tactics when there was a Republican president and a Dem majority in the Senate?

  5. Note to Shevii et al. I previously stated that UKIP were on 15% (up from 5%) in Corby. I must have been mixing up all the different by-elections, as UKIP did not stand in Corby in 2010.

    :oops:

  6. CHRISLANE

    @”Ed is making a speech appealing to the ‘right’ tomorrow on the EU.”

    Yes-apparently he will “build alliances” to “reform the EU”.

    Amazing !

  7. I wonder if Ed includes France in that.

    If he is going to build an alliance with Mr Hollande to “reform” the EU-that would be really interesting .

    Ed’s policy announcements are becoming more incisive I feel

  8. Howard

    Of course clegg has to go, spring is really the last chance to rebuild in time for the next election

  9. Martyn

    Of course. But us that anything more than anecdotal evidence?

    I’m sure that Iraq is a biggie. I do wonder though whether there was a general sense of disillusion that Blair’s right-facing facade proved to be more than a facade?

  10. @LeftyLampton

    Sorry, I was being glib. And yes, it’s anecdotal. But given that it was the biggest single event in the period, it has to be considered.

    rgdsm

  11. I’ve read the st article about the shadowy network of media activists with the Bureau of Investigative Journalism at its centre. I thought it was a spoof article. I hope it is. The Mail have been hammering on about this all week trying to paint it as some kind of Marxist coup d’etat.

    I do hope the article writers are safely ensconced in a safe house to protect them from the black helicopters…

  12. RiN………………In a nutshell, bankers rule the world, and will continue to rule the world, after all, we, eventually, manage all the money…………Of course, we could do a better job, but when I scan the horizon I see very little evidence of excellence elsewhere, even Chelsea lost yesterday, to the ‘Baggies’, I sometimes wonder about the, ‘true’ value of my season ticket. :-)

  13. @Martyn,

    “You said “…As for the polls; what on earth are we to make of them?…”

    Labour has a poll lead of ~10 points over the Conservatives. This has been the case for some months now. Day-to-day changes in the lead are normal variation (oooh, I made a pun!)

    Rgdsm”

    I agree….no real change….just within the MOE stuff around a Labour lead of circa 10 points.

  14. @CrossBatt,

    “I’m inclined to go with real votes in real elections and I would have thought, going on the evidence of Thursday’s by-election results, that the YouGov 35%s for the Tories recently are overstating their support a tad.”

    Yougov have only had the Tories on 35% in some of their polls. The average is probably more like 35.5/34% (with Yougov). Either way, the underlying picture is still one of an average Labour lead nationally of around 10%.

  15. *33.5/34%.

  16. RICHARD IN NORWAY.

    Clegg is off to be an EU Commissioner in 2014, I think.

  17. Investigative journalism eh? Burning the midnight oil to trawl through hidden documents to uncover nefarious intent. The Mail is a leader at this.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2233684/Leveson-Inquiry-Disturbing-questions-key-adviser-Sir-David-Bell.html

    Their investigation has “uncovered evidence” about David Bell, one of Leveson’s assessors, demonstrating that he has links to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism.

    Phew. That’s democracy saved from a Blofeld-like evil genius who kept his real intentions hidden.

    But I wonder where they found the evidence? Must have taken them a superhuman effort of professional research.

    Or maybe they just looked at the letter of declaration of interest on the Leveson website?
    http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Declaration-David-Bell.pdf

    The Mail eh? Where would we be without it?

  18. Investigative journalism eh? Burning the midnight oil to trawl through hidden documents to uncover nefarious intent. The Mail is a leader at this.
    h ttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2233684/Leveson-Inquiry-Disturbing-questions-key-adviser-Sir-David-Bell.html
    Their investigation has “uncovered evidence” about David Bell, one of Leveson’s assessors, demonstrating that he has links to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism.
    Phew. That’s democracy saved from a Blofeld-like evil genius who kept his real intentions hidden.
    But I wonder where they found the evidence? Must have taken them a superhuman effort of professional research.
    Or maybe they just looked at the letter of declaration of interest on the Leveson website?
    h ttp://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Declaration-David-Bell.pdf
    The Mail eh? Where would we be without it?

  19. “Conspiracy theories”

    Apparently the WHOLE country is being run by a group of people, mostly men, alternately known as “the government” or “the bastards” and theis has been the situation for many, many years.

    The majority of the population are too busy watching telly to realise the gravity of the situation.

  20. CL

    He wouldn’t even win enough votes to be a Police Commissioner.

  21. Colin,

    I have to convince you the ruling class exists now?

    You are keen to imagine (or at least propagate the idea of the existence of) some conspiracy to shackle the media but unable to conceive of our own dear ruling class, despite it not being hidden in the least.

    I thought you had some interest in politics and such basic concepts could be taken as read here.

    If not and if you would like to have a wider understanding of the political scene, can I recommend reading some simple primer on your opponents’ ideas, so that you won’t be left floundering when unaccustomed terms are used?

  22. It’s interesting to see if there is any halo effect here. No one cared to vote in the PCC elections, but on the day of the count they were reported quite heavily and people suddenly became aware of them.

    We all know the halo effect, winning an election boosts you in the polls, but what would be the effect in this case? Obviously it will be smaller than normal because no one cared too much, but who won the PCC’s? Labour won more votes but the Tories won more seats.

    Now I know every left winger is going to say that most votes matter, and every right winger is going to say most seats matter, so save your breath.

    Is 31 the lowest shown for the Conservatives this parliament? Never seen them go lower than that, or have they?

  23. Ken

    You are quite right, which is why I’m seriously thinking about starting a bank

  24. ACADEMIC

    No-the “centre” is an organisation called Common Purpose, (run by one Julia Middleton )and it’s lobby for control of the Press-Media Standards Trust.

    The BIJ merely shares a trustee with Common Purpose.

  25. MIKEMS

    Thanks.

    The Ruling Class is not unfamiliar to me as a term.

    I have assumed it was the term for those currently In power, used by those currently Out of power.

    I thought for a moment that you were going to tell me who some of these people are-it seems not, which is disappointing.

    I will have to continue my own research

    Sir David Bell has been an interesting example. You wonder how people manage to have so many irons in the fire. But I don’t think they are actual jobs-they are areas of influence-and all of the “fires” are in fact connected.

    There are, I feel sure, many of this ilk.

  26. RiN………….. A noble calling, and a path to unparalleled riches. For a small, up-front, fee, I will be happy to advise. :-)

  27. Colin

    Interested in a real conspiracy, currenty unravelling?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/nov/18/hillsborough-police-witness-threats

    I’m wondering now if we’ll need to build more prisons to house those who are supposed to do the arresting.

  28. The evil Murdoch rag Sunday Times, quotes a Survation Poll ( 12/13 November) for Free Speech Network , a newly formed organisation :-

    http://www.freespeechnetwork.org.uk/

    -described by THe Guardian here :-

    http ://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2012/oct/21/press-freedom-sundaytimes

    ST quotes these opinions from Survation’s Poll:-

    71% believe there is no need for new laws or state regulation of the Press.

    68% want to see libel laws amended to get actions settled more cheaply & quickly.

    55% will go online to find a story if it is barred by law from being published in UK newspapers.

    The dead tree press is really fighting for it’s survival .

    I suppose this poll is some dreadful zombie push poll thing though ?

  29. Didn’t Survation have Oldham & Saddleworth neck and neck?

  30. COLIN……………..It’s pleasing to see just how quickly, deeply held philosophical beliefs are jettisoned, when the holders get to smell the real money…………the final door at the end of the corridor of power usually has, ‘ Bank’ carved over it. :-)

  31. NICK

    THanks.

    Does not surprise me that West Mids are involved.

    DPP & IPCC have one helluva job on there hands with that can of worms.

    This is becoming like the Augean Stables-where is Hercules when you need him.

  32. @ Reggieside

    Very good posts. I keep banging on about the need to anayise the Lib Dem vote and one poll alone of 1000 Lib Dem 2010 voters currently saying they would vote Labour may tell you the result of 2015.

    Lib Dem vote was down to 15% just 2 months after the 2010 General election and down to 10% within 6 months which was when Labour leads started appearing. The initial drop must surely be fixed to Labour as it was a pure reaction to the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Tories. The additional drop must surely be quite fixed as well as this was a reaction to general policies even before seeing the result of those policies.

    So expecting this to change must need quite a few unlikely scenarios. One would be a miraculous improvement in the economy that changes people’s natural voting inclinations along the lines of ‘well I’ve never voted Tory but the way they turned the economy around…’. Then there is the ‘can’t be bothered to vote Labour’ on the day which would need Labour to do something particularly right wing and put off their natural voters. Then there is the ‘well the Lib Dem has been a good MP despite what I think of the party’ which is very possible in many seats but unlikely to harm Labour much as that would harm the Tories more just on the percentages that suggest a tactical anti Tory voter is more likely to stick with Lib Dem than someone swinging between Lab and Lib Dem where they are voting for who their first choice of MP is.

    The final meltdown for not having a Labour government in 2015 is a very serious collapse in the economy that someone can blame on the EU or whatever and Cameron (or UKIP) make some sort of radical plea (get out of Europe type thing) that resonates with desperate voters.

  33. Pete B @ John B Dick

    “An insurance based system is inherently more expensive ……”

    Oldnat answered that.

    “Are you saying that these things don’t come out of the total pot now?”

    Yes.

    “The cost of costing everything so as to charge it out doesn’t come cheap.”

    “This is already done. There is a very complex method of costing hospital procedures, …”

    Yes that is so, and it is a huge waste of resources started by NewLabour. What does it achieve except preparation for privatisation?

    When I was in carge of an NHS finance department, nine staff did all the finance work and dealt with personell data. Departmental mangers did all the rest of the HR work with advice from a senior manager to whom they were not accountable.

    Now there are the work of three of my staff is outsourced and the work of the remaining six is done by 18 and there is an entirely additional HR department of 25.

    “Always overlooked is the cost in qualty of service of lower morale when staff see tha theprimary objectiveis to make a profit.”

    “Even if there’s profit-sharing?”

    Payment is part of job satisfaction which can lead to high morale which is the chicken and egg of a topclass service.

    Pride in a quality professional job and the admiration of your peers is another.

    The surgeon who did my triple bypass is an example.

    More or less as often as he comes to work he meets another person embarrasingly grateful for saving their life.

    My wife noticed a change is staff attitudes when he comes into the department. In 50 years retired doctors and nurses will still name-drop how they worked for him and in that hospital to show how well trained they were. My wife hasn’t worked as a midwfe since 1974 and when she meets other midwives they all do that .

    “Another cost always overlooked is the huge increase in the opportunty for fraud at every point in the system – patients, GPs, hospitals, insurace companies and staff.”

    “Those opportunities are already there.”

    No they aren’t except gaming the targets and the internal markets.

    ” I don’t see why they would be any worse in a different system. GPs have always been private businesses (not that that means they are more likely to be fraudulent). Hospitals try to charge PCTs as much as possible, and every NHS organisation has to employ bureaucrats to keep an eye on overcharging by other parts of the NHS.”

    What a waste!

  34. KEN

    I can live with bankers-in the end we get them :-)

    Was just reading that we seem to have got most of them actually-150k banking jobs disappeared from the City.

    …along with a structural hole of £30 bn pa in state tax revenues. Still-the bastards lost their bonuses & jobs, which was the main thing-eh?

    No-we seem to have sorted the bankers out-it’s these other shady networking types who seem to run anything which matters -particularly where state handouts & “opinion forming” are involved.

  35. So……..Cafe Nero is at it as well. Complex structure of subsidiaries syphoning off potential UK taxable income to evil tax havens like.ermm Isle of Man.

    Lets have a show of hands lads & lasses-whose up for a boycott of these tax dodging multi-national shysters-show em what we think.?

    Who’se willing to boycott :-

    Google
    Amazon
    Starbucks
    Cafe Nero

    …just for starters?

    No?-ah well same for everyone else it seems :-

    Do you think the Government is doing enough to ensure multinationals pay the right amount of UK tax ?
    NO-81%
    Do you boycott companies’ products or services in response to them not paying their fair share of tax ?
    No-63%

    YouGov 15/16 November

    We’re all hypocrites when it comes down to it aren’t we?

  36. @ Colin

    Why did David Cameron call the Leveson inquiry & approve Leveson’s appointment? Are you now saying that this is an example of a spectacular failure of judgement by DC? Are you saying that he was stupid enough to ask for recommendations from a Jurist who is under the evil influence of a shady cabal or similar? Wow, is there anything which involves DC which doesn’t turn into an omnishambles?
    8-)

  37. @AmbivalentSupporter

    My MAD stats have the Conservatives in the UK on 33.4% over 30 polls.

  38. AMBER

    It is not clear -at least from this mornings reading-who appointed Leveson’s Panel of Assessor’s .

    If you happen to know would be interested.

    I have not read of anything which disturbs me about Lord L himself.

  39. @Colin

    “Who’se willing to boycott :-

    Google
    Amazon
    Starbucks
    Cafe Nero

    …just for starters?”

    I have never used the latter three, and have never clicked on Google’s sponsored links. As far as I know, I don’t generate any revenue for Google.

    You don’t have to boycott Google to prevent them getting revenue from your search engine habits.

  40. oldnat @ PETE B

    Scotland has been extrordinaly lucky with its Health Ministers.

    Susan Deacon was too left for NewLabour. I was very happy with that.

    Malcolm Chisholm was an acolyte of Donald Dewar and left Westminster with him. He is a man of integrity and when Health minster answering a question on waiting lists said somehting no recent English Health Minister could ever say. He said:

    “I am on a waiting list.”

    Sam Galbraith (apart from the fact that he was duped by PFI) knew a thing or two about hospitals as a consultant and a patient.

    I am very concerned that the SNP give independence a higher priority than my health and I want Nicola Sturgeon in charge of the Scottish NHS till I don’t need it any more.

    I have complained to my MSP.

  41. STATGEEK

    Bully for you.

    I don’t drink coffe-so can look smug about those two.

    Not sure how Google generate all their UK income-can one be certain that every search doesn’t generate some income for them?

    Amazon-you don’t use Amazon?-how do you exist?
    .
    Buying Christmas presents used to be hell on earth before Amazon.

  42. Colin

    Google is a bit difficult to. Boycott, they seem to be part of the fabric, as in “Google it”

    Amazon is easy

    Starbucks has horrible coffee, better than a transport cafe but not by much

    Cafe Nero, I’m not sure but is that the one that does the really good coffee, I’m a coffee freak and couldn’t give up the occasional good cup of coffee

  43. COLIN………..The clubs of St James’s host the feeding frenzy of ex- MPs, Ministers, Editors, dodgy dealers, and assorted chancers, that make up the, seekers after influence in policy making network, you allude to. They labour on behalf of the most dubious national and inter-national interests. On an average lunchtime you will spot the most unlikely of bed-fellows acting out the, ‘hail fellow well met’ scenario, once active at the highest levels, they now leverage their insider value with the highest bidder. Healthy ? I don’t know, but it’s the world, and we live in it. :-)

  44. @Colin

    “Amazon-you don’t use Amazon?-how do you exist?”

    Not sure. Not sure how I existed before the Internet. Most of my friends are unsure as to how I exist without a mobile phone.

    I guess I just manage.

  45. @Statgeek

    What are your latest MAD figures please.
    :-)

  46. @ Colin

    It would be interesting to know if people have to some extent boycotted Starbucks and I think this covers DT readers just as much as Guardian readers (judging by the comments on the DT site- although this may just be Guardian readers on there reaching a wider audience!).

    You are right about Amazon though. I don’t think I could boycott them on a permanent basis! Even checking e-bay and similar sites is a pain :-( You could argue that Amazon does pass on some of those tax savings on to the customer which is why John Lewis are kicking up about it. Not a good point of principle I know but not toally without merit for the general population (cheaper prices!). Ultimately a monopoly is a worry though- E-bay seem to be pushing things a bit with charges now they are dominant.

    I wouldn’t completely diss the idea of boycotts working though as I am sure they take notice of drops in revenues.

  47. andyo @ Reggieside

    I agree but

    (2) How much support will go back to Lib from Lab?

    In Scotland the answer is none. Firstly becausein 2011 two thirds went to the SNP, not to LAB. The Lab to SNP flow that compensated for the gains from LibDem may well still be continuing, (due to SLAB’s negativity) and those who have shifted once may find it easier the second time.

    Labour can still afford to lose bucketfuls of seats of course so the losses in seats may be insignifiant. for the coalition/Lab balance it’s only half a seat as was pointed out above.

  48. @Colin

    A group of students recently glued themselves to the window of my local Starbucks in protest at them not paying tax.

    Starbucks filter coffee is foul — but the rest is OK.

  49. statgeek @ Colin

    “Not sure how I existed before the Internet. ”

    Of course you didn’t exist before the internet.

    I blog, therefore I am,

  50. Another thing that worries me about the Libs — will they actually deliver on their ‘pledge’ not to back the boundary changes?

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