Looking at local newspaper feeds, twitter feeds of reporters on the ground and so on here is what I can make out so far…

WILTSHIRE and DYFED-POWYS have both declared and were both won by the Conservatives.

BEDFORDSHIRE has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour, pretty much neck and neck and the moment. Ind, Lib Dem and British Freedom second preferences to be reallocated.

CLEVELAND has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour. Green and Independent 2nd preferences to be reallocated.

DORSET is reported to have an independent in first place so far.

ESSEX has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and an Independent. The Conservatives have a lead of 10,000 or so votes, but there are lots to be redistributed, including Labour, a second independent and UKIP.

GWENT’s first round was won by an Independent, Ian Johnston, and has gone to a second round

KENT is still counting, but the former Independent chair of the police authority Ann Barnes is ahead on the first round and looks set to win

MERSEYSIDE should be ready to declare shortly, Labour have won easily on first preferences.

NORTH WALES has gone to a second round between Labour and an Independent

NORTHUMBRIA hasn’t quite declared yet, but has been easily won by Labour. They have declared now and Vera Baird has indeed won comfortably on the first round.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE has apparently been won by Labour on the first round, but no figures yet

SUFFOLK has gone to a second round with Labour and the Conservatives absolutely neck and neck, there are votes from UKIP and an Independent to be redistributed.

WEST MIDLANDS has gone to a second round, but Labour’s first round lead looks unassailable.

UPDATE: Labour have won Corby with a 22% lead, so the Populus(?) poll by Lord Ashcroft got the lead correct. It is a swing of around about 12.7%, so significantly better than the national polling position, which is currently showing a swing of around about 8.5%.


412 Responses to “PCC Update – the situation so far”

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  1. “KENT is still counting, but the former Independent chair of the police authority Ann Barnes is ahead on the first round and looks set to win”

    THAT’S WHO I VOTED FOR!!! :)

    Gave 2nd pref to Lab, not that it needed.

  2. Thames Valley Turnout:

    Provisional turnout for each local authority area:

    Aylesbury Vale District Council: 18,746 (13.9 per cent)

    Bracknell Forest Council: 11,245 (13.1 per cent)

    Cherwell District Council: 13,418 (12.4 per cent)

    Chiltern District Council: 11,077 (15.3 per cent)

    Milton Keynes Council: 23,992 (13.3 per cent)

    Oxford City Council: 12,065 (10.9 per cent)

    Reading Borough Council: 15,549 (13.4 per cent)

    Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead Council: 14,253 (13.5 per cent)

    Slough Borough Council: 10,523 (10.9 per cent)

    South Bucks District Council: 7,043 (13.5 per cent)

    South Oxfordshire District Council: 13,948 (13.6 per cent)

    Vale of White Horse District Council: 12,965 (13.9 per cent)

    West Berkshire Council: 18,199 (15.7 per cent)

    West Oxfordshire District Council: 10,624 (13.2 per cent)

    Wokingham Borough Council: 16,766 (13.9 per cent)

    Wycombe District Council: 16,099 (13.2 per cent)

  3. tony

    So two LAs managed to squeak over 15% turnout.

    Woeful.

  4. Shouldn’t the Police Commission regions be based upon equal numbers of registered voters? Maybe within, say. 5% tolerance?

    Wouldn’t want some areas over or under represented.

  5. GLOUCESTERSHIRE on a second round between the Conservatives and an Independent.

    THAMES VALLEY on a second round with Conservatives about 20000 ahead.

    NORTH YORKS won by the Conservatives.

    HUMBERSIDE has Prescott ahead, but the very Conservative East Riding still has to announce its votes. Looks like a second round anyway, question is who goes through alongside Prescott.

    NickP – each police area collates its vote in a single constituency, consisting of the entire force area, so all votes are of equal worth and boundaries within them don’t come into play. Which you know, so behave.

  6. DORSET and NORTH WALES both won by independents.

    CLEVELAND and SOUTH YORKSHIRE both won by Labour.

  7. DURHAM The BBC are reporting a Labour win on first count.

  8. @AW

    Except, of course, the Commissioners will get together to lobby government, make announcements about the shape of policing etc etc… And do they all get paid the same?

  9. Where can we get updates on corby, knowing the area I’m kinda interested

  10. It seems that our PM is pointing to PCC and local council elections to prove that Labour won’t win the next general election.

    I think he should get Rasmussen and Gallup over to keep tory morale up for the next couple of years.

  11. @ Anthony

    “NickP – each police area collates its vote in a single constituency, consisting of the entire force area, so all votes are of equal worth and boundaries within them don’t come into play. Which you know, so behave.”

    Nick might have been mischievous, but his point point stands that the forces’ areas are not equal in population or in registered voters.

    Having said that, the whole thing is quite irrelevant.

  12. Richard – there shouldn’t be any updates on Corby. Reporting information from a count before the results is an election offence.

  13. @ Nick P

    It was a strange choice of message and strange wording indeed.

  14. It’s looking like Labour winning with around 50% of the vote with tories on about 25%. What would be the swing if true?

  15. I should add that my last post is about Corby.

  16. I see that the cons were beaten into 3rd place by the English dems in south yorkshire. Headlines?

  17. Shambles ?

  18. Thames Valley First Count – Second Count in progress:

    Patience Tayo Awe – Independent 14,878

    Barry Cooper – UKIP 19,324

    Geoff Howard – Independent 31,716

    John Orrell Howson – Liberal Democrat 20,511

    Anthony Stansfeld – Conservative Party 76,011

    Tim Starkey – Labour Party 56,631

  19. If one party gets more votes in these PCC elections, but another party gets more commissioners who has “won” the day?

    I think technically as we’re electing commissioners whoever gets the most commissioners should win, but no doubt some will say that overall vote matters, when actually that’s unfair as London and Scotland aren’t included.

  20. Lib Dems from 14% to losing their deposit in Corby, based on gossip from Sky about partial recount.

    Poor showing from UKIP in my humble opinion. If the English Democrats can come second in South Yorks then UKIP ought to have been able to mount a decent challenge somewhere especially with such low turnout when smaller parties have the chance to do better.

  21. has anyone seen the brief “Empty Ballot Box” video on the BBC News website? It’s from Gloucestershire – apparently not the only one.

    Good to see some independents winning.

  22. My advice is to forget this PCC election farce, with a lot of the winning candidates getting elected on single figure percentages of the registered vote, and concentrate on Corby. That’s the only election taking place this week that will have anything to tell us about the current state of public opinion and how deep these mid-term blues are for the Government. A 44% turnout, certainly in comparison to the two other by-elections and these hilarious PCC farces, at least has some semblance of democratic legitimacy about it!

  23. I think that posters (and David Cameron, by the sound of things) should perhaps go easy on making any claims regarding their or their opponents performance in any of these contests.

    The overwhelming message is that around 85% of voters either thought that these elections were so pointless or that all the candidates were so rubbish that they couldn’t be bothered to get involved.

    I suspect it would be more appropriate if all party supporters take this message as their start point, rather than look for glimpses of cheer for themselves amongst the results.

  24. Good Afternoon all.

    The Lib Dems seem to be suffering, according to the BBC.

    I wonder why that has happened; quite a surprise.

  25. This is an interesting perspective from Liberty, from the BBC –

    “Sophie Farthing, from the civil liberties group Liberty says the older system of police authorities is more representative of communities. “There were at least 17 members, half of which were locally elected councillors so you had a much greater chance of having people on a police authority from an urban area, a rural area, different racial groups, women, men. With the PCC’s we have – those who stood were predominantly white, male,” she says. “

  26. BBC saying Lib Dems are 9 votes short of saving their deposit in Corby

  27. Heard a Pollster on R4-but missed who it was-saying they had pooled on PCC voting & found low turnout associated with dislike of “party” candidates, rather than INdepependents.

    I thought the Parties really ruined these elections. PCC candidates are not standing on political platforms-or shouldn’t be. They are standing on oversight of policing in their area on behalf of all citizens.

    I don;t know how difficult-or expensive-it was to enter the contest & I suppose party support will have helped.

    Certainly all the results are being reported on in Labour v Tory terms.

    I think it’s a great shame.

    Given this aversion to “party” candidates, turnout seems quite good-after all look at turnout the BE in Manchester.

  28. Lib Dems have asked for recount in Corby, could they have come 4th???

  29. LD’s have asked for a recount in Corby.

  30. trying to avoid lost deposit by the sound of things

  31. Yes “Liberty” perhaps have agood point about representation. Why are we electing one individual as a PCC. Surely more democratic would have been for us all to elect a small representative committee to do the job – that would have been much more democratic wouldn’t it?

  32. Not sure if anyone else posted it, but there’s been a slight change in a local council by-election in Dumfries and Galloway.

    In the 2012 elections, the results were:

    Lab: 15
    Con: 14
    SNP: 10
    Others: 7
    Lib: 1

    The Conservatives and SNP formed a coalition with a majority of 1 councillor (24 vs 23), much to Labour annoyance:

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-18070305

    “However, the Labour group said the coalition agreement showed “contempt for local people”. Its leader, Ronnie Nicholson, said: “The Tories lost the election, and the people of Dumfries and Galloway voted to kick them out. “But the dead hand of Tory rule has been given the kiss of life by the SNP.”

    Labour’s councillor Ted Brown died in September. The Annandale North ward voted yesterday and elected a Conservative councillor:

    http://www.dumgal.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=11182&p=0

    So now the council makeup is:

    Con: 15
    Lab: 13
    SNP: 10
    Others: 7
    Lib: 1

    Con/SNP coalition with a majority of 3 (25 v 22).

  33. good page on the Guardian showing current state of play. Con 29.4%, Lab 34.1%, LibDem 7.1% and UKIP 7.2%.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/nov/16/pcc-election-results-police-crime-commissioners

  34. Colin,

    The reason party candidates do well is that many people will trust one of the parties to pick a candidate that will do a reasonable job. You can expect that the candidates were picked after some internal selection process. With independents there is no quality control at all.

  35. @Colin – “I thought the Parties really ruined these elections. PCC candidates are not standing on political platforms-or shouldn’t be. They are standing on oversight of policing in their area on behalf of all citizens.”

    Well duh! For a Tory supporter to complain about this now is a tad weird, I would suggest. If you support elections for PCC’s, you’re going to bake in party politics into policing. That’s exactly what those of us opposed to this have said all along.

    By contrast, there is a far wider selection of representatives on the old police authorities, with far greater levels of legal expertise (3 of the 17 members must be magistrates) and far less opportunity for political domination of police oversight.

  36. I think there should be no party labels on the ballot. And parties should not pick candidates, or even be allowed to donate to campaigns.

    It should just say

    Joe Bloggs
    Fred Smith

    Not Joe Bloggs, Labour party
    Fred Smith Conservative

    Obviously party members could still run, but it shouldn’t be mentioned on the ballot, and parties shouldnt be able to fund them.

  37. MiM,

    So, only the rich can afford to stand for election?

  38. Hal

    We seem to have plenty of independents running, are you saying they are all rich?

  39. BBC reporting the LibDems 4th, behind UKIP.

  40. Libs 4th in Corby
    Libs 4th in National PCC vote.

    Not good for them at all.

  41. ALEC

    @”If you support elections for PCC’s, you’re going to bake in party politics into policing. ”

    I disagree entirely.

    @”By contrast, there is a far wider selection of representatives on the old police authorities,”

    Selection -but not by voters.

    When did you ever hear anything about a Police Authority in the news?

    Did PAs in South Yorkshire or North Wales do a good job of oversight for their citizens?

    ..and in Rotherham …Rochdale… ?

    PA’s embodied the worst aspects of our LA set up-political has-beens & local wanna bes nodding sagely & pretending to be doing something four times a year.

    I remember watching Ian Blair of the Met on tv in front of his former POlice Authority. He treated them with contempt-virtually telling them they couldn’t sack him.

    PCCs are a good start at making our POlice accountable to their local citizens for the first time.

  42. @ MiM

    Read the North Wales victor’s background…

  43. Laszlo

    That’s one person, theres loads of independents running.

    We all know Labour has won Corby, PCC are the only ones that are left to any unknown results.

  44. MiM,

    The deposit is £5,000. So what do you think? Add the cost of, say, half a million leaflets for a traditional campaign.

  45. HUMBERSIDE has finally finished counting the first round, Con and Lab through to second round. Prescott is about 4000 votes ahead, but an awful lot of Independent and UKIP 2nd preferences to be redistributed.

  46. Tis official Ukip beat Libs

  47. Agree about the uneven quality of the independents, not that necessarily a party label guarantees anything.

    Another bad election for the LD’s then, behind UKIP too. The PCC’s might be difficult for anyone other than Labour and Conservative to win in future, a bit like the European elections before we had to have PR – due to the sheer size of the constituencies.

  48. Surely Max won in the fantastic county of Kent?

  49. @ MiM

    Many of the independents are former senior police officers. After a while I gave up checkimg it.

  50. The figures so far suggest the collapse in LD vote that many on here have predicted since May 2010 when the coalition was formed is now reality.

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