Looking at local newspaper feeds, twitter feeds of reporters on the ground and so on here is what I can make out so far…

WILTSHIRE and DYFED-POWYS have both declared and were both won by the Conservatives.

BEDFORDSHIRE has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour, pretty much neck and neck and the moment. Ind, Lib Dem and British Freedom second preferences to be reallocated.

CLEVELAND has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour. Green and Independent 2nd preferences to be reallocated.

DORSET is reported to have an independent in first place so far.

ESSEX has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and an Independent. The Conservatives have a lead of 10,000 or so votes, but there are lots to be redistributed, including Labour, a second independent and UKIP.

GWENT’s first round was won by an Independent, Ian Johnston, and has gone to a second round

KENT is still counting, but the former Independent chair of the police authority Ann Barnes is ahead on the first round and looks set to win

MERSEYSIDE should be ready to declare shortly, Labour have won easily on first preferences.

NORTH WALES has gone to a second round between Labour and an Independent

NORTHUMBRIA hasn’t quite declared yet, but has been easily won by Labour. They have declared now and Vera Baird has indeed won comfortably on the first round.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE has apparently been won by Labour on the first round, but no figures yet

SUFFOLK has gone to a second round with Labour and the Conservatives absolutely neck and neck, there are votes from UKIP and an Independent to be redistributed.

WEST MIDLANDS has gone to a second round, but Labour’s first round lead looks unassailable.

UPDATE: Labour have won Corby with a 22% lead, so the Populus(?) poll by Lord Ashcroft got the lead correct. It is a swing of around about 12.7%, so significantly better than the national polling position, which is currently showing a swing of around about 8.5%.


412 Responses to “PCC Update – the situation so far”

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  1. The PCCs are of those types of initiatives that one just knows will all end in tears.

    I suspect the majority of us who did not vote just know this, but this blog is the stamping ground of party hacks.

  2. @MIM

    I thought I read that you went down to the local bookies and placed some money on these elections.Perhaps you were being sarcastic

    In my view,the Lib Dems are taking the flak not for supporting the very right-wing Tories but for supporting the very inept Tories.

  3. Paulcroft

    Maybe but I reckon its because they have shown themselves to be limp wristed pansys

  4. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    “Everyone harbours some ideology.”

    Exactly.

    Sometimes that ideology may impact on the area of public provision that the elected official is responsible for, and may be relevant.

    An “Independent” may (or may not) be a member of a political party. Did the voters in your PC elections have a clear idea of the ideology of their “independent” candidates?

    When the SNP came up with one of their less well thought out ideas of direct elections to our Health Boards, it was conducted in a sample of Boards, and the response resulted in the idea being quietly sidelined.

    While the politics of changing anything can be difficult, due to entrenched interests, there needs to be a philosophical underpinning of any proposed changes, and they need to relate to all similar provisons.

    Constitutional ad-hocerry is usually a poor strategy

  5. PAULCROFT

    You might be right and the by-election could have some significance to it but a word of caution and it kills me to write this.

    The SNP overturned a Labour majority in the Glasgow East by-election but Labour won the seat back at the following General election quite handsomely so I don’t think you can read too much into a by-election and it’s certainly not a forecast for the next general election.

    However.”.will add to the very slow drip effect on Tory morale..”

    Absolutely agreed!!

  6. COLIN

    Of course you weren’t interested! That was rather the point. :-)

  7. The Guardian has called Dev & Co for the Conservatives.

  8. RICHARD IN NORWAY & HOWARD

    How did the Lib/Dems get on in Corby?

  9. Allen Christie

    Go stick your head in a bucket

  10. Richard in Norway

    I gather it was bad then? ;)

  11. Smukesh I don’t think i’ve said that even sarcastically (maybe I have???) or maybe someone else said I would after I placed bets on the American election.

  12. @MIM
    I think you have.Perhaps you should have had a flutter on Ann Barnes.

    MANINTHEMIDDLE
    Am so excited about tomorrow, if you thought the American elections was tense just wait until the united Kingdom elects its first ever Police Commissioners. The suspense is killing. I’ve already set aside the whole of Friday to stay in and watch the results.There’s going to be cheers and flag waving when my preferred candidates win, and tears should they lose. I’ve been down to William Hill and placed loads of bets already.Christmas really has come early!
    November 14th, 2012 at 5:13 pm

  13. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    You’ve still got politics but not as much.

    Before all 41 were appointed by the governing party. Now they have to actually face elections and we’ve actually got 12 Independents out of the 40 declared so far.

    Actually you’ve got more politics than before. The old Police Authorities had (technically ‘have’ till next Thursday) nine members who were elected councillors from within the area. This supplied the body with a democratic mandate (probably based on higher turnout too). These members were supposed to reflect the political make up of the councils across the area, so they wouldn’t all be from the same Party (and some might be Independent councillors).

    But PAs also had eight ‘lay’ members who were non-politicians from the area. At least one had to be a magistrate, though usually more than that were. These ‘lay’ members were nominated by the authority but vetted and short-listed by the Home Office (though not politically).

    The most powerful member was the Chair of the Authority, but this was often (indeed I think usually) a non-politician or not chosen on a Party basis. As is proved by the fact you voted for one yesterday (According to Wiki “Anne Barnes, magistrate and former chair of Kent Police Authority, is standing as an independent”).

    I don’t think it was a perfect system, but it had evolved over decades and did OK. The replacement system is more political not just in that a Party politician may be elected (and arguably any election makes the post ‘political’), but because there will be things called Police and Crime Panels. These

    […] will be responsible for scrutinising commissioners’ decisions and ensuring this information is available to the public. They must review the commissioner’s draft police and crime plan and draft annual report before publication, and the commissioner must give their comments due consideration. A Police and Crime Panel may require the attendance of the commissioner or a member of his or her staff at any time, and may suspend a commissioner from office where he is she is charged with a serious criminal offence. Police and Crime Panels will be able to veto a Commissioner’s proposed precept or proposed candidate for Chief Constable by a two-thirds majority

    These panel will also be heavily political as “they will consist of at least one representative from each local authority in that area, and at least two independent members co-opted by the panel”. I get the impression that the representative will usually be the Leader of the Council (or Elected Mayor) and they will heavily out-number any lay-members.

    So both the new Commissioners and people keeping a check on them will be much more political than in the past.

  14. Smukesh I stand corrected, I did indeed say it in sarcasm then.

    I wouldnt have bet on Ann as I only bet when I’m sure to win, I don’t make much money, but it means I’ve never lost money. So far I have 100% track record.

  15. In Manchester Central Labour support is where it was in 1997, the gains in vote share made by LDs in four GEs have been wiped out. Conservatives lose their deposit.

    In Cardiff South and Penarth, Labour is where it was in 2005, Con and LD back to where they were in 1997 or thereabouts.

    In Corby, Labour is roughly where it was in 2001, for Conservatives their worst showing in the constituency (due to the rise of UKIP). LDs lose their deposit.

    Leading Conservatives (plus Nick Clegg) are dismissing this as mid-term business as usual… and the resounding raspberry being blown at another policy non-starter is seen as a welcome distraction.

  16. Chrislane,
    ‘I think Wilson’s Labour Party had similar swings?’

    Re -1970 – 74 – Labour’s best results were just 12 months into that Parliament winning Bromsgrove on a swing of just over 10% in May 71 and getting a 16.5% swing at Hayes & Harlington a few weeks later. At the end of September 71, Labour achieved a swing of 8.4% at Macclesfield but the Tories held on by 1000 votes.
    By midterm in December 72 Labour was struggling and failed to win Uxbridge despite a swing of less than 4% being needed – on the same day the Liberals gained Sutton & Cheam from the Tories!.Labour had already lost Rochdale to the Liberals and in 1973 was also under pressure from the SNP -losing Govan to Margo Macdonald in November 1973.
    In short, Labour are performing a good deal better than in that Parliament!

  17. Going further re the LD’s the really serious problem they will have is that the UK electorate, I believe, work on a sort of gut instinct. Even as someone who voted LD but won’t again I think they have a reasonable story to tell.

    The problem for them will be that electorate have made up their minds and detail is not their mate – they just won’t listen.

  18. Bedfordshire has gone to Labour, when usually its safely Blue.

    Could this be down to Tarzanadine?

  19. Wow,the combined wit of Colin and Allan Christie,,pretending not to know
    What two jags or shags could possibly mean.Probably their only ray of hope in
    A dire day.Rather pleased that Newport South Wales was the only place not to
    Register a single vote in the splendid police Commisioner polls.

  20. PAULCROFT…………..I’m not so sure, first of all, in my view, the Corby result has no other significance than being totally predictable, is Corby currently Labour ? Is the Pope a Catholic ? Had the Tories won, it would have been significant, but since they couldn’t, it isn’t……….the context determines the significance.
    The mood of the country is fairly predictable, but of course this leads to, which part of the country ? I live in London and last week visited a restaurant, ( Dabbous ) that we booked in March, on leaving we asked for the earliest available reservation date…….they told us August 2013.
    As a Tory, I would suggest that Tory morale is good, why? Because I am surrounded by Tories busily working to make this country a better place, and dynamic young people starting world class businesses in places like Shoreditch. Here in the South things are looking positive, we are seeing thousands of young Europeans, more and more French, Spanish, Italian, not just Eastern Europeans, abandoning the failing economies of the Eurozone and bringing their talents here.
    As far as the LDs are concerned, I imagine the usual electoral caveats apply, it is, after all, a long, long, time, until the next election, and by the way, I believe GO, for all his faults, is the right man for the job.
    The challenge is to stimulate the under-performing regions into growth, with unemployment falling, and low interest rates, the transition from a dependency culture to a dynamic one is inevitable, I am investing in Britain and would recommend others to do so. :-)

  21. Actually Ann polling stations in Gloucestershire, recored 0 votes as well

  22. OH YEAH! THE GUY I VOTED FOR GOT IN! FIRST TIME THAT’S HAPPENED IN THE 21ST CENTURY! EAT MY CROSS! AWOOGA AWOOGA! BEHOLD MY VOTING POWER!…

    …and back to lower-case and proper elocution… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  23. Who do you usually vote for? And what constituency are you in (in terms of PCC constituency?)

  24. @Paul Croft

    “The answer is that, of course, it does. It shows the mood of the counntry, in particular in the enormous move from LD to Labour, and will add to the very slow drip effect on Tory morale.”

    Of course, you’re right; Corby was the only election of any real and potentially lasting significance that occurred yesterday and when the Tory troops return to the Commons next week and gaze at a newly created space on the green benches where once the fragrant Ms Mensch sat and then look across the floor at her smiling Labour replacement, their sphincter muscles will tighten a little further. Corby is a bellwether marginal constituency and nobody should be fooled by feigned Tory insouciance at the result. The swing to Labour was not exceptionally large by some by-election standards, but 12.9% is pretty good and it’s worth remembering that the Tories failed to win a single seat from Labour during the first 10 years of Blair’s government. It’s taken Miliband a little over two years to take his first scalp.

    A few comments on the other elections. Very poor turnouts in Manchester and Cardiff, but the results would have been the same had the turnout been 50%, 65%, 85% or 100%. Not so the absurd farces that took place in the gargantuan artificial PCC constituencies where, as I predicted, the turnouts were an affront to a democracy. Shunned by anything up to 90% of the voters, the only participants were likely to be those who’d turn out to vote for their local binman if ever the opportunity arose. I barely believe what I’m about to say but the Wiltshire PCC, now on a salary of between £65-100k pa, was elected by the votes of 5.9% of the registered electorate. Most of the other newly elected Police Commissioners fared almost as badly and it looks as if the real winners on the night were the 85% of the country who shunned the deserted polling stations and sent the empty ballot boxes rattling their hollow way back to the ghostly counts.

    A slight apology to Rob S, by the way. The 29% turnout in Bristol for the Mayoral election looks like a triumph for democracy compared to the national embarrassment of the PCC fiasco!!

    Just a query, to end on. Did Robert Peel get elected in West Mercia? I know I was the only person who voted for him yesterday, but looking at the turnout, I’m starting to think he might have had a chance! lol

  25. ANN IN WALES

    I bet you have a splendid big portrait of John Prescott above your bed with the words “My Chippendale” written across it. ;)

    As for the Police commissioners, complete waste of £100 million in my books.

  26. @Allan Christie

    ““12 Independents”
    ____
    Closet Lib/Dems that’s all they are!! ”

    Own up. It’s an SNP invasion by the backdoor, isn’t it? ;)

  27. @Billy Bob

    We didn’t really learn anything new.

    The Tories will hold their heartlands but will be vulnerable to Lab in marginals, very vulnerable. They.will be please they “won” the PCC elections and be delighted that they were saved by Independents.

    Lab will sweep the cities, and gain several marginals from the Tories.

    The LD are in a serious crisis. They’ll be walloped by the Tories in the South and rural areas, and demolished by Lab in the cities. They are in deep, deep trouble, of the type many predicted. If clegg does not go, the sitiation will only get worse.

  28. STATGEEK

    I take it you have seen the leaked memo from Bute House? ;)

  29. Allan Christie,I have no idea what you are talking about,but I can assure you
    That I do not have pictures of fat old men in my bedroom.

  30. MiddleMan,

    The Hampshire ‘Independent’ that won is a Conservative. Rumour has it that he fell out with the party when Mates was parachuted in to stand.
    I haven’t verified it yet but he may have also stood in 01 in Wales and 05 in Dorset to be MP. Regardless, he may have been an Indy in the PCC election but he’s not an Indy in a political sense.
    Despite the paltry turnout, and the fact Hants encircles Pompey and Southampton, an interesting first round vote spread here…

  31. “and be delighted that they were saved by Independents.”

    No one was ‘saved’. The Independent candidates obviously beat their Con or Lab opponents in a fair (if low turnout) election.

  32. HoodedMan

    It’s not a problem that he has an ideology, every human on this earth, all 7 Billion, have some political views. The good thing is that this Surrey Commissioner is not reliant on the Conservative party for his job. They can’t lean on him or apply pressure.

    Whereas if he was appointed, then he’d be reliant on the party for the job.

  33. Ann in Wales

    How about fat young men?

  34. Statgeek

    Most won on notional Tory areas that may otherwise have voted for the Opposition. Had they actually.voted at all ;)

  35. A bit embarassing for the Libs.

    In Coventry, the Liberal Democrat candidate Ayoub Khan polled just 783 votes; 100 fewers than the number of spoilt ballot papers.

  36. Paul,I am afraid the level of debate is degenerating somewhat.Men,fat,old or
    Thin are not to be found on my bedroom walls.My husband would simlply not
    Allow it.

  37. Not even a photo of yer hubby?

  38. PAULCROFT

    It’s very un-PC to question a fellow poster as to their taste in wall decorations.

    That poor taste tradition started with an SNP supporter in Dr No raising an eyebrow at the Duke of Wellington..

    If Ann chooses to have any variant images in her chamber, that is entirely her business.

  39. ANN IN WALES…………..Men, fat, old, thin, thanks…….that narrows it down a bit, can I guess……Beyonce ? Sounds like a bit of a lad your old man ! :-)

  40. Looks like Devon and Cornwall are the UK’s answer to America’s Florida.

    The Guardian has predicted a Conservative win, but there’s no official result.

    The swearing in was due at 20:30, but they hadn’t finished finding out the turnout until 20:45

    They’re currently still counting first preference votes.

  41. Have come in to usual Friday night inebriation.

    The Corby result is a straightforward message nationally to all LD supporters in 2005 who want a more social democratic result next time. Vote Labour.

    Incidentally that cohort does not include me, but as the AV debacle has proven, the next turn of the screw has to take place under FPTP, so that all we PR advocates can hope for is that Ed, once in power, does the business for PR.

    Hope springs eternal.

  42. @Raf

    If we didn’t get Gary Cooper (I’m assuming that’s in High Noon, where he ends the film by throwing his marshal’s badge into the dirt before leaving town), who did we get?

    Ford Sterling? I’m thinking a series of b/w era comedy capers which gave our very own Kennington lad his break into the movies ; :

    h
    ttp://archive.org/details/CC_1914_02_02_MakingALiving

  43. ANN IN WALES

    “Allan Christie,I have no idea what you are talking about,but I can assure you
    That I do not have pictures of fat old men in my bedroom”
    _______

    Well I suppose two jags falls into that category!! :)

  44. Sorry to disappoint all you salivating old men,but my bedroom is decorated in
    Very tasteful Sanderson wallpaper and Farrow and Ball paint.No pictures of
    Anyone.Hey Ken,who does your old woman have on her bedroom wall?

  45. HOWARD………When I come in to the usual Friday night inebriation, I just make her a cup of cocoa and tuck her up in bed, usually works. :-)

  46. I managed to vote, just.

    It’s Americanisation of politicising things which shouldn’t be political.

    So are all the PCC electoral statements meant to say

    1) Local crime is all that matters
    2) I’ll do it more cheaply than anyone else
    3) I’ll have areall booby (not one of those fake ones) outside very house who votes for
    4) The other counties can get stuffed as they don’t vote for me
    5) Cuddle me I’ll cry when are a victim

    I’d like a police force who can take a national approach and look beyond ASBO behaviour. Because that i sll voting for PCC is about; panic the grannies about ASBOs…

  47. ANN IN WALES……………Me usually, but that is really far too much information. :-) :-)

  48. Howard – you must be inebriated if you think the next election is in 2005.

    But I agree with your point and I think that is pretty much how things will remain.

  49. Is it likely that Ukip will beat the Libs by 8300 in Dev and Co

    They are exactly 8300 behind in the national vote and there is only Dev and Co left to announce first pref votes.

  50. A in W:

    I am neither sailvating nor old. I was just showing a polite interest.

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