Looking at local newspaper feeds, twitter feeds of reporters on the ground and so on here is what I can make out so far…

WILTSHIRE and DYFED-POWYS have both declared and were both won by the Conservatives.

BEDFORDSHIRE has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour, pretty much neck and neck and the moment. Ind, Lib Dem and British Freedom second preferences to be reallocated.

CLEVELAND has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour. Green and Independent 2nd preferences to be reallocated.

DORSET is reported to have an independent in first place so far.

ESSEX has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and an Independent. The Conservatives have a lead of 10,000 or so votes, but there are lots to be redistributed, including Labour, a second independent and UKIP.

GWENT’s first round was won by an Independent, Ian Johnston, and has gone to a second round

KENT is still counting, but the former Independent chair of the police authority Ann Barnes is ahead on the first round and looks set to win

MERSEYSIDE should be ready to declare shortly, Labour have won easily on first preferences.

NORTH WALES has gone to a second round between Labour and an Independent

NORTHUMBRIA hasn’t quite declared yet, but has been easily won by Labour. They have declared now and Vera Baird has indeed won comfortably on the first round.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE has apparently been won by Labour on the first round, but no figures yet

SUFFOLK has gone to a second round with Labour and the Conservatives absolutely neck and neck, there are votes from UKIP and an Independent to be redistributed.

WEST MIDLANDS has gone to a second round, but Labour’s first round lead looks unassailable.

UPDATE: Labour have won Corby with a 22% lead, so the Populus(?) poll by Lord Ashcroft got the lead correct. It is a swing of around about 12.7%, so significantly better than the national polling position, which is currently showing a swing of around about 8.5%.


412 Responses to “PCC Update – the situation so far”

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  1. Did Blair campaigning for Prescott ensure his failure to be elected?

  2. With 39 of the 41 counts now declared, Labour has 15 police commissioners, the Conservatives 12 and independent candidates 12.

    Can’t see how that’s the Tories winning most.

  3. @Colin

    Odd thing, the duffers in Westminster can be politically pressured to resign, and if they don’t then the house can actually take action against them by levying fines for misconduct. Positions in Government particularly are apt to forced resignation.The duffers in Westminster do not actually tend to last till the next election in an position of power once they’re found out. Not even PMs are immune!

    PCCs? Nope. As I said, unless the IPCC find them directly at fault for something within the IPCC’s remit, they can stay in their job till the next election even if they are grossly incompetent at managing a police force.

    PCCs have more job security than a sitting Prime Minister!

  4. COLIN

    “They will be accountable to an electorate every day.”

    I understand the concept, but the logic is US style election of all public officials.

    It is a model which can work, but do you want to vote for your equivalents of the Directors of Housing, Social Services, Cleansing etc, etc – or for the councillors who will oversee the work of the appointed officials doing those jobs?

  5. The Labour Party must be hugely satisfied with the Corby result. There is no indication from the polls that it has done anything but performed to expectations, but more important than that – performed.

    @R in N

    Parochially, I had no idea what you were saying to Socal, never having heard of Twinkies.

    So I found this:
    ‘A deep-fried Twinkie involves freezing the cake, dipping it into batter, and deep-frying it to create a variation on the traditional snack cake. It was described by a The New York Times story in this way: “Something magical occurs when the pastry hits the hot oil. The creamy white vegetable shortening filling liquefies, impregnating the sponge cake with its luscious vanilla flavor… The cake itself softens and warms, nearly melting, contrasting with the crisp, deep-fried crust in a buttery and suave way. The pièce de résistance, however, is a ruby-hued berry sauce, adding a tart sophistication to all that airy sugary goodness”.’

    What is the relevance to your comment to Socal?

  6. “Trouble for Obama: Patraeus says CIA knew Benghazi was terrorist attack from start but its talking points were amended. By White House”

    Andrew Neil tweet

  7. Nick

    What site are you getting information from? I’m going off Wikipedia which has Cons 2 ahead with only 2 constituencies left to declare (one very likely Con)

    You said the Tories had 12 with only 2 left to go, wiki has them on 14.

  8. HOWARD.

    I think the Corby result is similar to the 1970-74 swings to Labour.

  9. correction. Damn BBC has revised it now.

    With 40 out of 41 votes now declared, the Conservatives have 15 police commissioners, Labour 13 and independent candidates 12.

  10. Nick The Guardian show

    Cons 15
    Labour 13

    With only Devon and Cornwall left to declare.

  11. OLDNAT

    Why is that “the logic”.

    Because they do it that way in US , why is it logical we would?

    They change senior civil servants with the incoming administration don’t they? Would we want to do that ?

    ………ah….wait a minute :-)

  12. So my point stands :P

  13. NICKP

    “With 40 out of 41 votes now declared, the Conservatives have 15 police commissioners, Labour 13 and independent candidates 12.”

    That is a good balance.

    Would have preferred more Independents-but it’s not bad

  14. Isn’t a Twinkie just a sponge cake with whipped cream in the middle? No wonder they are out of business, make them at home for half the price.

  15. I guess its kinda hard to get the cream in the sponge cake, but there must be some way of doing that

  16. Politicising the police? No wonder the turnout was under 15%.

    Daft, stupid and a complete waste of money.

  17. COLIN

    Logic would suggest that directors of public service provision should be either directly elected or appointed by an elected board/council.

    There may be variations within either system, but such variation would require good argument as to why a particular post should be exempt from the generally applied structure.

    Why does oversight of the police require a directly elected official, as opposed to a directly elected person with oversight of education, social work etc etc?

  18. Allan

    I wasn’t in favour at first of “politicising” the police. But doing a bit of research I may have changed my mind.

    Is it true that the former authority, was a collection of these people each with their own salary, appointed by politicians? In which case, completely unaccountable and already politicized.

    I’d rather 15% of the electorate choose who runs the police, than politicians. I think having politicians choose would make it more political than having an election.

  19. Howard

    The company that makes twinkies has filed for liquidation today meaning the end of an American icon

    As for the rest of the comment, you should goggles “twinkie defence”

  20. Apparently in Surrey, the Zero Tolerance ex chief won.

  21. RIN

    A twinkie isn’t much, it’s a sponge cake with cream inside, no wonder they went bankrupt. We just have to discover how to get the cream inside the sponge cake, and we can make our own.

  22. “I’d rather 15% of the electorate choose who runs the police, than politicians. I think having politicians choose would make it more political than having an election.”

    Disagree completely.

    We’ve had ‘Labour’ and ‘Conservative’ candidates. How political is that? Did anyone read the CV of any of the candidates before interviewing them, then casting their vote?

  23. OLDNAT

    @”Why does oversight of the police require a directly elected official, as opposed to a directly elected person with oversight of education, social work etc etc?”

    Because MPs ( representing us) think so.

    I think the Police is a good place to start, and in light of recent revelations & concerns a timely place to start.

    I don’t personally see education in the same light-particularly in light of the Academy + Free School model .

    Social Services chiefs?-hmmm-perhaps-would need to think about any proposal there.

    Rat Catchers ?-don’t think so.

  24. Just learning that having PCC elections in November was a Lib Dem idea.Maybe Autumn is their favourite season!

  25. COLIN

    “Because MPs ( representing us) think so.”

    That argument seems to lack intellectual rigour.

    Fortunately, in Scotland and NI MPs have no role in policing structures.

    While I’m reasonably content with the local oversight provisions of the new Police Service of Scotland, and Fire & Rescue Scotland, that’s because the structure has been argued for and explained – not just because a huge majority of cross party MSPs agreed to implement the scheme 101 – 6.

  26. Will the newly elected, non ex-police, Comms., need to apply for their Masonic membership, and who pays the fee ? :-)

  27. Statgeek

    “We’ve had ‘Labour’ and ‘Conservative’ candidates. How political is that?

    I’d rather elect Labour/Conservative/Independent candidates, than just have to live under Labour/Conservative appointees.

    “Did anyone read the CV of any of the candidates before interviewing them, then casting their vote?”

    Yes Ann won my first preference vote after I read all about her experience, as being a part of the former authority and he time as a magistrate, she had 27 years of experience.

  28. Still counting in Oggy Land.

    Candidate are interesting:-

    Independents:-
    Two former LD Councillors & members of PA
    One Solicitor
    One Architect
    One Farmer
    One a bit unclear.

    Labour
    County Councillor

    Conservative
    Retired RNAS Culdrose Commander

    UKIP
    Psychologist

    :-)

  29. Why is Cornwall & Devon taking so long. I know it’s a large area geographically, but similarly large areas have already wrapped up and done.

    As far as I’m aware, Dev & Co, haven’t even finished the first preferences yet.

  30. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    I have to disagree with you. Just read some of the comments on here..ie. “Con 15 commissioners Labour 13 commissioners ” etc etc..How political is that?

  31. COLIN

    “Still counting in Oggy Land.”

    I see you are a “One Nation” guy – and yours is better than the others? :-(

  32. My simple prediction is that one or two of the PCCs will make some massive blunder in the next year or two. And then people will be shocked to discover they can keep the job till November 2016, and there’s no real way to remove them till then.

  33. You’ve still got politics but not as much.

    Before all 41 were appointed by the governing party. Now they have to actually face elections and we’ve actually got 12 Independents out of the 40 declared so far.

    Having only 30% of Police forces free from political party pressure isn’t great, but it’s better than the old score of Zero!

  34. Thankfully John Prescott never got elected. Would had set a bad example from the time he battered some poor guy for chucking an egg at him

    What was it they called him? Johnny two jabs? or was it jags? or was it both?

  35. OLD NAT

    A bit too obtuse for me I’m afraid ??

  36. Allan

    “shags” actually.

  37. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    “Having only 30% of Police forces free from political party pressure isn’t great, but it’s better than the old score of Zero!”

    I may have misunderstood what the oversight of the police in E&W was intended to be.

    However, that you assume that someone labelling themselves as an “Independent” doesn’t mean that they have a political agenda (perhaps a party one) suggests that there may be a significant level of mis-comprehension about politics among some of you that were voting in these odd elections.

  38. Colin

    “A bit too obtuse for me I’m afraid ??”

    I was afraid that would be the case.

  39. @Allen Christie; Colin

    All three. He was originally called two jabs for the egg incident. I thought it served the thrower right in a way.

    The Humberside constituency was a nominal Conservative won with a notional 2010 majority of 30k. Although on a much lower turnout, a more popular figure might have stood a chance. He was actually in the lead after the first round, until the masses spoke.

  40. OLD NAT

    Don’t be-it’s quite normal for me with your posts :-)

    I am sure it was very significant & interesting-want to explain?-then I can try to respond .

  41. Colin

    I think the Police is a good place to start, and in light of recent revelations & concerns a timely place to start.

    Except that many of the worst “revelations and concerns” were about the Met. Which effectively already had this system of supervision and budgetary control by a single elected politician (now the Mayor; before the Home Secretary). Is the intention behind these elections making the rest of the Police a subsidiary of News International too?

  42. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    “12 Independents”
    ____
    Closet Lib/Dems that’s all they are!! ;)

  43. Oldnat

    Some of the Independents elected may harbour some political ideology, we don’t know, but that will always be the case. Everyone harbours some ideology.

    But what has happened here, is that 12 individuals are now free to organise policing as they see fit and the governing party at westminster can’t lean on them to implement certain policies etc.

    It’s not that we have 12 completely unbiased commissioners, but we do have 12 commissioners free from party control which is a good step forward in my book.

    Those commissioners who are elected under a party label, at least it’s the people in those areas choosing that party to control their policing, rather than the old system where it was top down run from Westminster.

    Equally it provides ways for people to split the ticket and be better represented.

    If you are mostly Labour, but dislike their soft stance on crime, you can vote for Labour at a general election, and in your PCC election vote for a tough on crime candidate.

    Equally, if you’re Conservative, but wish they were softer on crime, then you can vote Tory at a general, and a candidate saying they are soft on crime in the PCCs

  44. COLIN

    There is a significant lack of Welsh posters on here, but one of them might care to comment.

    It shouldn’t really be necessary.

  45. ROGER MEXICO

    You think those were the “worst”?

    Really?

  46. COLIN

    HA LOL :)
    ….
    RAF

    “All 3 ”

    Presumably to go with all 3 of his chins!! ;)

  47. @MIM

    Did you win any money?

  48. OLDNAT

    Assumed it was a reference of some sort to Cornwall since the usual stimuli jerk you into the predictable response mode.

    Further than that I wasn’t really too interested-so it isn’t necessary at all :-)

  49. Update:

    Labour take Corby !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Low turnout in PCC thingies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

    As so many people have been bombarding this site with news we’re all capable of reading on the….. well, the news I s’pose …. I thought I’d help out a bit.

    The first post “trust me” re Corby has no significance is obviously daft: the implication would be that had the Cons won with an increased majority that would have had no significance either.

    The answer is that, of course, it does. It shows the mood of the counntry, in particular in the enormous move from LD to Labour, and will add to the very slow drip effect on Tory morale.

    We haven’t reached a tipping point yet but “hang and hope we get some credit” looks less and less likely to work for the LD’s. Foir some reason they have taken a massive, and I believe, permanent hit. I believ that the reason is that in 2010 they were perceived as left of centre amd pnce again I quote from the Who – “We won’t get fooled again”

  50. @Smukesh I didn’t place any bets, didn’t think anyone offered PCC elections.

    Just as well really, I voted for Ann Barnes, “knowing” she had no hope of winning, against the party machines but liked her CV and she was my first preference. Then she went and Won!!! :)

    I could have bet on Corby, but Labour winning was 1/33 so If I’d put £33 on I’d only win £1.

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