Looking at local newspaper feeds, twitter feeds of reporters on the ground and so on here is what I can make out so far…

WILTSHIRE and DYFED-POWYS have both declared and were both won by the Conservatives.

BEDFORDSHIRE has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour, pretty much neck and neck and the moment. Ind, Lib Dem and British Freedom second preferences to be reallocated.

CLEVELAND has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour. Green and Independent 2nd preferences to be reallocated.

DORSET is reported to have an independent in first place so far.

ESSEX has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and an Independent. The Conservatives have a lead of 10,000 or so votes, but there are lots to be redistributed, including Labour, a second independent and UKIP.

GWENT’s first round was won by an Independent, Ian Johnston, and has gone to a second round

KENT is still counting, but the former Independent chair of the police authority Ann Barnes is ahead on the first round and looks set to win

MERSEYSIDE should be ready to declare shortly, Labour have won easily on first preferences.

NORTH WALES has gone to a second round between Labour and an Independent

NORTHUMBRIA hasn’t quite declared yet, but has been easily won by Labour. They have declared now and Vera Baird has indeed won comfortably on the first round.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE has apparently been won by Labour on the first round, but no figures yet

SUFFOLK has gone to a second round with Labour and the Conservatives absolutely neck and neck, there are votes from UKIP and an Independent to be redistributed.

WEST MIDLANDS has gone to a second round, but Labour’s first round lead looks unassailable.

UPDATE: Labour have won Corby with a 22% lead, so the Populus(?) poll by Lord Ashcroft got the lead correct. It is a swing of around about 12.7%, so significantly better than the national polling position, which is currently showing a swing of around about 8.5%.


412 Responses to “PCC Update – the situation so far”

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  1. @Howard,

    I continue to lurk from time to time. The atmosphere is a little too Sandinist these days for me to contribute anything. But as you might expect I was reading this particular thread with a lot of interest.

  2. RiN…………..I visited Corby a few times in the last Century, once with some Chinese investors, impressive place with large population of Scots, I recall. Those horny handed sons of toil don’t take kindly to the, ‘showbiz’ types flouncing off to make big bucks across the pond, it’s all a bit surreal. Anyway, back to normal now, with a standard issue, professional, party political clone, how boring for the good burghers of Corby. :-)

  3. NEIL A

    It was interesting flying over coastal NJ/NY yesterday. Now, THAT’s “Sandinist”! :-)

  4. Have you noticed that Bristol voters (well, just the Cliftonite few) chose not to vote Lib Dem and instead chose a – a Lib Dem (standing as Ind)!!!

    Well organised up there on the heights above the plebian South Bristol, look at the transfer votes and see how it worked.

  5. Phil

    Was that win 1 pound for every 4 you put on if ukip beat libdems?? Is it really worth it after betting tax(is there still betting tax)

  6. RIN

    No there is no betting tax!

    You keep everything you win

  7. KEN

    Is there a particular reason for your categorising the good folk of Corby as “horny” (or somewhat worse, in terms of their predilections, “horny handed”)? :-)

  8. @HOWARD…………Thanks, I do read the offerings here, but I’m far too right-wing to comment regularly, the naughty step is my natural domain. :-)

  9. Jim

    Yes I was expecting a large number of live to go green but maybe at a time of recession its too much of a leap

  10. @OLDNAT……………It must have been triggered sub-consciously by the mature blonde lady lurking on the top left of this site. :-)

  11. Ken

    You are naughty, but I like you

  12. Surrey has gone to the second count between the Tory and a zero tolerance indie.

    I put the zero tolerance bloke as my second choice…if he wins by one vote DEMOCRACY IN ACTION!!!!

  13. Isn’t being zero tolerant on crime usually seen as right wing?

  14. A message from the recently elected Commissioner for Apostrophes [Electorate 1; Votes cast 1; Majority 1; Turnout: 100%].

    “MP’s” does not need an apostrophe. Nor does “PA’s” or “PCC’s”. These are plurals not possessives: an example of the latter would be: the PCCs’ democratic mandate, ha ha.

    If apostrophes were needed, they would be required in the singular as well as the plural form.

  15. I find a “Zero Tolerance” attitude soon dissolves into frantic exceptionalism when a person is confronted with the reality in their personal life.

    “Zero Tolerance for everything except for when I did 39 in a 30 zone, and when my wife rounded up our insurance claim after the washing machine flooded, and when my son was caught urinating in an alleyway”.

  16. @phil – “@Alec. ComRes polled the LDs at 7%, so I think your criticism of @ChrisLane1945 is a tad harsh.”

    Entirely disagree. ComRes poll well within margin of error from actual result. So this entirely backs my post. On the evidence of a real election in Corby, there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that polls are overstating Lib Dems, and two key bits of evidence to suggest they are spot on.

  17. @RiN. There’s no betting tax anymore so it was worth it, although if you wish to join me in celebration all that I can offer is a pint in cyberspace.

  18. Ann Barnes – Independent ( and my 1st preference :) has won in Kent!

  19. NEIL A

    After a month in the USA, any concept of “Zero Tolerance” over here seems remarkably liberal!

    Apparently adultery is still a criminal offence in a number of US states, as it is theft of male property by adulterating their blood line.

  20. Interesting tweet from the BBC website – “Can someone explain why the police commissioner elections, which are by Tory design, are using a form of AV vote system when in the referendum on AV the Tory Party vehemently criticised that voting system?”

  21. @Alec,

    Perhaps the answer is that the “model” for PCCs is the Mayor of London, who is elected by a similar system.

  22. @Oldnat,

    Like you I’ve spent a lot of time in the US, and their police officers frighten the daylights out of me.

    Having said that, the incompetence of the US criminal justice system means that there is Zero Tolerance only for the poor, stupid and unlucky.

  23. I thought the AV voting system was a condition demanded by the Lib Dems, along with the November date.

    Really surprised Ann won here in Kent, she genuinely was my 1st preference, but I put a party candidate 2nd because I was sure she’d be eliminated in the first round. Really happy for her, she has promised not to be political, and has a wealth of experience stretching to 27 years to bring to the role.

  24. BBC are currently showing a comment by Louise Mensch commending the result in Corby as, ‘ very respectable, in view of the anger generated by my departure’ . A view from a Manhattan penthouse no doubt, I wonder if she’s missing Corby yet ? :-)

  25. Just looking at where 2nd preferences have been going and without obviously knowing where they came from it seems to me that Labour have squeezed the Lib Dem vote as far as they can- feels like very few Lib Dem 2nd preferences were going to Labour.

    Not that they need to squeeze it any more- the question I would ask anyone who thinks Labour are not in next time or that there will be a hung parliament is why would you think the LIb Dem voters who have switched to Labour would move back? Corby is almost an exact drop in Lib Dem vote and rise in Labour vote (swing percentage wise), with an added (but maybe unsutainable) swing from Tory to UKIP to add to the majority.

  26. Neil A

    Have you seen the “IKEA scandal” where in the 70s political/criminal prisoners were making products for an IKEA supplier?

    The same thing still happens in a number of US states, where (if they don’t have enough workers to fulfil contracts) then police will arrest a number of people – usually young black males – for crimes such as illegal assembly, to boost the workforce for US companies.

  27. @Alec.ComRes 7% v actual LD polling of 5% is a snippet of evidence that would by itself give limited support to @ChrisLane1945’s theory, even though it’s of little significance taken in isolation. Although I do wonder whether Chris make these comments just to provoke a reaction.

  28. @OLDNAT…………….In the US does, ‘ illegal assembly ‘ mean breaking into IKEA and putting things together ? :-)

  29. Prescott loses.

  30. Setting aside Corby which was a pretty normal mid-term By-election in the end, with that fine British tradition of a good kicking for the incumbent Government, all be it slightly skewed by the reasons for the by-election.
    What theses results really say is the public are pretty fed up with politicians from all sides an !8% turn out in Manchester even by By-election standards is dismal, as was the turn out for the PCC.
    Still on the bright side my independent choice got in, nice to see independent’s getting elected over party shoo- in’s.

  31. STATGEEK…………….Should read, ‘Prescott loses, to a Tory ‘ best news of the day ! :-) :-)

  32. KEN

    :-)

    For young blacks, standing on a street corner chatting to your mates, can be the entry level to a career! :-)

  33. Ken…not bothered to whom. That man getting elected to that post would have been the first nail in the coffin of whether or not the role itself is worthwhile.

  34. @Neil A

    The problem is that we now have set terms of office. So if someone who’s a duffer got elected, they’re in charge of a huge part of the police for for the next *four years*!

    The only possibility of recall mid-term is if the IPCC find the PCC directly at fault for something, and that’s not likely since there’s very few things within the remit of the IPCC that the PCC could ever be found at fault for! Otherwise we have to hope that duffers resign when they realise they are duffers, but there’s nothing and no one that can stop someone who is running a police force into the ground from staying where they are till their term is up.

    Considering the… quality of candidates who stood, we should not be surprised when a fair few of this crop turn out to be duffers. And we should not be surprised when stories break about over-spends, resources being wasted on the wrong things, and other small to major crisises within a couple of regional police forces.

    For which, the blame is going to fall on…

  35. Am glad Prescott lost. He’s one member of labour I can’t stand, don’t think we should have a PCC who goes around hitting people.

    Am surprised though, I thought he was certain to get elected, that area is heavily Labour I thought!

  36. STATGEEK………Egg throwers, and young female civil servants on Humberside, can now rejoice ! :-)

  37. Did the Lib Dems want November because they thought they’d be more popular by now, or what?

  38. LASZLO

    @”So we have a lot of police forces supervised by unaccountable former senior police officers. In the light of Hillsborough, etc it is very encouraging‚Ķ A victory for democracy”

    Formally unaccountable.

    Now -accountable. They will be accounting in writing to their electorate-and then submitting themselves for election over & over again.

    As you rightly say-in the light of Hillsborough , for which no policeman or PA member was responsible for 23 years-a victory for democracy ( and therefore accountability)

  39. Really sad to hear of the death of Leo Blair ( Snr ). A great and remarkable man, ripe old age though.

  40. I can hardly wait for the expense scandals to begin

  41. Good Evening All.

    ALEC. good evening to you.

    I missed the criticism, as I was out. I think the Lib Dem vote will underperform their poll ratings.

    Such a shame for men like Simon Hughes.

  42. CHRISLANE1945……………. :-) :-)

  43. KEN.
    Hi, as Tony Blair said….

    Has anyone got any by election details from the 1970-74 parliament?

  44. @Colin

    As mentioned above, we have gone from supposed to be accountable to local government boards, and under continual government supervision; to accountable once every four years by a political election.

    This may not be an improvement. Evidence from the US suggests that it is not a significant increase in accountability.

  45. Good day for Labour with Corby,not a bad day for the Conservatives winning more PCC`s than Labour

    Real winner:UKIP and Democracy(People clearly rejected the PCC`s)

    Loser:Lib Dems

  46. JAYBLANC

    @” we should not be surprised when a fair few of this crop turn out to be duffers.”

    RiN

    @I can hardly wait for the expense scandals to begin”

    …so about the same as the average GE intake at Westminster then.

    That’s democracy folks-you just sling ’em out next time & try someone else.

  47. I think Wilson’s Labour Party had similar swings?

  48. Socal

    May I be the first to offer my condolences on the regrettable and untimely demise of the twinkie, I understand that you and the whole country must be devastated, although the gay community in san fran might be glad that they can no longer be killed with impunity by twinkie crazed homophobes or was that a different twinkie

  49. After today’s results Prime Minister Cameron has announced that the 2015 election will indeed be contested under new boundaries. The constituency boundaries used will be the same boundaries as under the PCC elections. :P

    In all seriousness, we are used to the electoral map hugely benefiting Labour, and the tories to a smaller degree, but now it looks certain that Cons will finish 2nd in the vote, but come 1st in number of commissioners elected.

  50. JAYBLANC

    The P&CC won’t just be accountable every four years.

    They will be accountable to an electorate every day.

    Was it possible for the public to influence PAs?-if so how?

    Who selected them -and how?

    Lets give the thing a shot & see how it looks next time around.

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