Looking at local newspaper feeds, twitter feeds of reporters on the ground and so on here is what I can make out so far…

WILTSHIRE and DYFED-POWYS have both declared and were both won by the Conservatives.

BEDFORDSHIRE has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour, pretty much neck and neck and the moment. Ind, Lib Dem and British Freedom second preferences to be reallocated.

CLEVELAND has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and Labour. Green and Independent 2nd preferences to be reallocated.

DORSET is reported to have an independent in first place so far.

ESSEX has gone to a second round between the Conservatives and an Independent. The Conservatives have a lead of 10,000 or so votes, but there are lots to be redistributed, including Labour, a second independent and UKIP.

GWENT’s first round was won by an Independent, Ian Johnston, and has gone to a second round

KENT is still counting, but the former Independent chair of the police authority Ann Barnes is ahead on the first round and looks set to win

MERSEYSIDE should be ready to declare shortly, Labour have won easily on first preferences.

NORTH WALES has gone to a second round between Labour and an Independent

NORTHUMBRIA hasn’t quite declared yet, but has been easily won by Labour. They have declared now and Vera Baird has indeed won comfortably on the first round.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE has apparently been won by Labour on the first round, but no figures yet

SUFFOLK has gone to a second round with Labour and the Conservatives absolutely neck and neck, there are votes from UKIP and an Independent to be redistributed.

WEST MIDLANDS has gone to a second round, but Labour’s first round lead looks unassailable.

UPDATE: Labour have won Corby with a 22% lead, so the Populus(?) poll by Lord Ashcroft got the lead correct. It is a swing of around about 12.7%, so significantly better than the national polling position, which is currently showing a swing of around about 8.5%.


412 Responses to “PCC Update – the situation so far”

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  1. Labour have won Corby with a 22% lead, so the Populus(?) poll by Lord Ashcroft got the lead correct.

    It is a swing of around about 12.7%, so significantly better than the national polling position, which is currently showing a swing of around about 8.5%.

  2. Are police officers counted as rich nowadays Lazslo???

  3. MiM

    Check out their Pension Scheme entitlement..

  4. Did the libs lose their deposit, according to my count 5% of 35,665 is 1784 (1783.25) and Libs only got 1770!

  5. Corby

    Labour 17,267
    Conservatives 9,476,
    UKIP 5,108
    Lib Dems 1,770.

    35,733 votes were cast, giving a turnout of 44.8%.

    A-ha! Martyn

  6. @AW

    Are the learned polling folk able to reduce the by-election and turnout factors to try to get a 2015 prediction from it all?

    What of UKIP for 2015 with those numbers?

    …and what happened to the predictions from some of Labour getting 50% plus of the vote?

    Hmm.

  7. Labour 17,267 votes. The Conservatives 9,476, UKIP 5,108 and the Lib Dems 1,770.

  8. Ooops…beaten to it!

  9. Decent result no more, still points to another hung parliament in 2015

  10. Conservative Nick Alston beat Independent Mick Thwaites after second preference votes were counted, as neither managed to get 50% of votes.

    Turnout across the county was 13.06%.

  11. Sorry, that’s in Essex.

  12. @jim jam.

    Surely it points to a fairly comfortable labour victory in 2015. Its yet more evidence that the lib dem vote is defecting in significent numbers striaght to labour. In addition Corby indicated that this defection might be be on an even greater scale in marginal constituencies.

    The split in the anti-tory vote that goes back to 1983 is no more – meaning that labour can easily win the next election without winning over a single tory vote from 2010.

  13. You can’t really do a Uniform Swing on this as

    Labour 9.8% up
    Conservative 15.6% down

    So a swing of 12.7% to Labour would mean

    Lab 41.7%
    Con 23.4%

    Now the Labour figure looks actually quite realistic and possible, but I don’t think the Tories will be down to 23.4% in 2015, so I don’t think Corby tells us that much.

  14. I believe that Jim Jam is correct. Hung parliament in 2015.

    I also think the vote in Corby shows that the polls tend to exaggerate the lib dem vote

  15. BBC now showing 12.8% turn out in Essex. Is this the lowest. The PCC election has obviously caught the imagination of Essex Man and Woman….

  16. TheSheep

    […]And do they all get paid the same?

    Varies depending on the size of the force (same with Chief Constables). Between £65k and £100k

    http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/police/police-crime-commissioners/candidates/pay/

  17. Labour would have to take around 50% of the LD 2010 vote or 40% plus gain most first time voters and bring back some former Lab voters who abstained in 2010 (2005 even).
    I think 25-33% 2010 LD-Lab in 2015 more likley.

    25% enough to Deny a con OM, 33% on current boundaries ,makes lab largest party probably.

    Of course swings in marginals may be different.

  18. @Colin – Sigh…

    Your argument regarding the failures of some PA’s is wearing. You may as well say that because of John Stonehouse we should abandon parliamentary democracy. Any system has it’s failings, but putting a worse system in place because of that gets you nowhere.

    As it happens, in my area our Police Authority was excellent and did a fantastic job, but I still wouldn’t use that as an argument in favour of that particular system.

    In my view, police authorities in the main worked well and held constructive but arms length oversight of police authorities.

    A number of things I have read today have suggested that having long standing police figures now acting as PCCs will be a good thing, as they will know what they are doing.

    Actually, I think the complete opposite. The best thing about the old Police Authorities was that they were manned largely by non police people. While I’m sure the individual candidates who are ex senior police have excellent understanding and are well intentioned, the point of police oversight is to have representative lay people exerting some degree of control over the police.

    Indeed, the entire point about oversight of the police is precisely that we don’t want the police to be left entirely to police themselves, and having recently retired police officers acting as overseers of those same forces they worked in until very recently doesn’t seem to me to be a good structural basis on which to provide public confidence.

  19. MIM………….I think you’re right, we really must somehow factor in the, ‘ Mensch ‘ effect…………….the electorate will feel fairly insulted to have been rejected by such a lovely lady, My view is that her looks and glam background got her there in the first place. Corby is Labour by culture, and now kicked in the teeth by a Tory, ‘celeb’ they should have seen it coming. :-)

  20. @Chrislane1945 “I also think the vote in Corby shows that the polls tend to exaggerate the lib dem vote”

    Evidence please?

    Ashcroft Corby poll (12 – 18th Oct 2012) Lib Dems 4.96%

    Actual result – Lib Dems 5%.

    Why persist in making myths, when the evidence is completely to the contrary?

  21. I think what will most worry the Tories will be the 15% UKIP vote.

  22. Did a quick experiment to test a thought. Given most Independent candidates ran on the basis of being “apolitical”, I assumed all voters would be equally likely to vote for them, regardless of political leanings. Big assumption, but what I could then do is extrapolate the share of the vote if Independents hadn’t run, by removing all Independent votes and recalculating. This is the result:

    LAB: 41.2%
    CON: 36.5%
    UKIP: 9.6%
    LIBD: 9.6%
    OTH: 3.2%

    This doesn’t actually seem too far from what pollsters are suggesting, other than the fact the Conservatives and UKIP are doing a little better and Labour and the Liberal Democrats are doing a little worse. However, when you consider the fact that turnout was low and Conservative and UKIP voters are much better at turning up to vote, even that is easily explained. So, if the initial assumption holds true, then it’s actually pretty probable that the pollsters are accurately showing levels of support for the main parties at the moment.

  23. Please don’t go all Liberal and hyperventilate over a by election result.

    It’s a good result for Labour for sure, but if you can’t win a marginal swing seat at the halfway point of a parliament defined by austerity, why bother doing anything?

    As someone earlier today implied, it means something, but perhaps not that much. File in the ‘excitable mid term by election’ drawer and then get back to pondering a proper general election.

  24. Top Hat are those figures extrapolated from Corby removing independents? How can Ukip and Libs both be on 9.6% when Ukip got 3x the votes then Lib

    Did you work it out based on some sort of swing? How did you arrive at those figures?

  25. Repeated across the country, that would give Labour a majority in the region of 150.

    A big win.

  26. @ManInTheMiddle; no, they’re extrapolated from the Police Commissioner Elections first round of voting.

  27. Have all the first preferences been counted already?

    The Guardian seems to still be updating.

    Going off the guardian figures I make it

    Labour 42.3 %
    Conservative 34.4%
    Ukip 10.3%
    Lib Dem 8.6%
    Other 4.5%

    Which actually looks very close to the polls. Maybe Ukip a little too high.

  28. Another interesting question is raised by comparing the Corby by-election figures with the Ashcroft poll. Here’s the results with the difference to the prediction in brackets:

    LAB: 48% (-6%)
    CON: 27% (-5%)
    UKIP: 14% (+8%)
    LIBD: 5% ( – )

    Is there a possibility the national pollsters, while getting the Liberal Democrats more or less right with the exception of ICM, are missing out swings to UKIP from the main two parties? Alternatively, was there a late swing in Corby?

  29. These figures

    Labour 42.3 %
    Conservative 34.4%
    Ukip 10.3%
    Lib Dem 8.6%
    Other 4.5%

    Give a Labour majority of 96, Anthony’s average of polls say 98, so very close indeed.

  30. @ManInTheMiddle, no, they’re still going. Then again, given I was assuming that people would be equally likely to vote for Independents, it was fairly large estimate anyway so I thought most votes was probably good enough.

  31. @That Old Bloke

    You said “…Repeated across the country, that would give Labour a majority in the region of 150. A big win…”

    Peter Snow, welcome to the board. I’ma great admirer of your work in the 80’s and 90’s. Now, all we need is to ressurect Vincent Hanna… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  32. Cameron must be scared of UKIP.

    If they had done a Tory-Ukip deal, they would have got 40.9% so still a loss, but it wouldn’t have been the wipeout the Tories got.

    Obviously not all Ukip voters are former tories, but it’s accepted that most are.

  33. I don’t understand the obsession with using Corby as some sort of sounding board, there was a freakish element involved that would skew any result away from the rest of the Country anyway, the ‘Mensch stench’.
    Given that the electorate was rejected by a Tory, it is surely no surprise that it would return the compliment. :-)

  34. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    “If they had done a Tory-Ukip deal, they would have got 40.9%”

    That assumes that people who vote for a particular party are automatons who simply follow the diktats of the party. There are such people, but I doubt that they are a high % of those voting for any party.

  35. Oldnat, read my comment “Obviously not all Ukip voters are former tories, but it’s accepted that most are.”

  36. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    You misunderstand. You are assuming that all/most of those voting Tory and all/most of those voting UKIP would equally have voted for a Tory/UKIP pact.

    Voters (other than Authoritarian Followers) don’t think that way.

  37. Could it be that current UKIP supporters are more likely to vote to register their protest so their %age is ehelped by a low (but typical) By-Election turnout

  38. So we have a lot of police forces supervised by unaccountable former senior police officers. In the light of Hillsborough, etc it is very encouraging… A victory for democracy

  39. Wouldn’t it have been better if the police elections had been completely depoliticized, only independants allowed. Then the indiviuals standings would have had to made themselves known to the electorate. A commissioner truly independant from politics. Isn’t that what we want and what these elections were supposed to be about?

  40. Methinks it’s time to update the polling reslts tables to inclue UKIP. They are clearly the thrd party now in British politics. They received 14.3% in a Westminster election yesterday in Corby so to continue to deny them is a bit silly. They are now far beyond the category of minor or other parties.

  41. Ken

    The town of corby may indeed be a natural labour stronghold but having grow up in the area I can assure you that outside of the towns it as solidly Tory as you can get. Lots of pretty villages with thatched roofs and range rovers and possibly a Jeremy clackson or two

  42. I agree with Jim

    I was thinking about this for the Swingometer calculators, that UKIP should no longer be included in the others section. As at the moment, Others are on about 13%, but most of that, more than a majority in factor, about 9% is down to Ukip, so clearly they would be receiving a bigger swing instead of say, the greens, or Eng Dems

  43. LASZLO

    Could it be that (even assuming those voting Independent knew that the candidate was an ex-cop) that they still trusted them more than politicians?

    I agree with your sarcastic conclusion.

  44. Jim

    Totally agree, its long past the time when ukip should be included in polling results as a matter of coruse. They have consistantly been above 5% for a while now. Just a shame its not the greens. But I notice that ukip are often given a seperate number by AW

  45. Another argument use for not prompting UKIP is polling was also yet again debunked by Corby. The argument is that prompting for smaller parties overestimates. As I recall, polls for Corby had UKIP on 6% so perhaps they need to be prompted for because they are not a small party and not prompting leads to an under estimation. Afterall, the point of polling is to get a clear accurate picture of public opinion, clearly something in the methodology is not accurately reflecting the evel of UKIP support. We saw the same thing earlier this year with the coucil elections.

  46. @Top Hat. Good points re Corby. Bear in mind also that earlier thread that highlighted the differences between phone and internet polling for the UKIP vote. Both the Populus (Ashcroft) and Com Res polls greatly underestimated the UKIP vote and happened to be phone polls. Might it be that the internet polling for UKIP is more accurate, or was it just late swing?

    Did anyone else here back UKIP to beat the LD? (1/4 with William Hill)

    @Alec. ComRes polled the LDs at 7%, so I think your criticism of @ChrisLane1945 is a tad harsh.

  47. @Laszlo,

    How exactly are Police and Crime Commissioners “unaccountable”. I’m no great fan of the idea, although prepared to give it the benefit of the doubt, but it seems to me the only clear thing in their favour is that they are accountable unlike the Police Authorities.

  48. Ed Miliband will enjoy his Country Supper tonight (or is it fish and chips down by the canal towpath?). The turnout was high enough to exclude silly effects and I don’t buy the Mensch Stench argument, notably only coming from partisans (welcome back Ken, you were missed, by the way, I’m back too).

  49. Hello Neil, you’re back too, well what a blast from the past we all are.

  50. Richard in Norway, I agree AW does a good job at reporting UKIP. It just boggles my mind that most of the polling companies still don’t prompt for UKIP and still include in them in the others category. I’m surprised the Greens didn’t pick up more LD support, probaly many of the Labour votes had their hearts with the Greens but voted Labour?

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