There won’t be many results tonight – only the two safe Labour by-elections, Manchester Central and Cardiff South and Penarth, and one of the Police Commissioner elections, Wiltshire, are counting. Everybody else is starting their counts on Friday. However, feel free to discuss results here as the come in (or, more likely, when you wake up in the morning!)

UPDATE: The results in the two safe Labour seat were much as expected – very comfortable Labour holds. Labour held Manchester Central with a towering 69% of the vote with the Lib Dems in second place, a swing of 17% from the Lib Dems to Labour. Everyone else lost their deposit, with the Conservatives only narrowing beating UKIP into third place. Turnout was 18%.

Cardiff South and Penarth has a higher turnout but more modest swings. Labour held the seat easily with 47% of the vote with the Conservatives in second place. There was a swing of 8.4% from the Conservatives to Labour, pretty much in line with national polling (it would be the equivalent of a ten point Labour lead in the national polls).

Finally the only overnight Police result was Wiltshire, which returned a Conservative Commissioner after redistributing second preferences, Labour came in second place (note that in 2010 general election votes in Wiltshire Labour were a distant third behind the Lib Dems,… although we don’t yet know to what extent police votes will reflect general election votes). The two independent candidates came third and last, but had 21% of the vote between them suggesting there may be potential for some Independent victories later on today


64 Responses to “Police and by-election results”

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  1. Has Nick Clegg resigned?

  2. @ NickP (10.53)

    Am I being cynical in thinking that the Tories belive that in a low poll their supporters will still be voting and therefore they have a greater likelihood of returning a conservative PCC. An increase in influence in policing will contrast with losing influence in parliamentary and local elections.

  3. Those of you who disagree with the introduction of PCCs or the way in which the process took place may wish to respond to Theresa May via the following web site.

    h ttp://action.unlockdemocracy.org.uk/never-again

  4. @Peter Bell – I really don’t see this as being likely – politicians would be wary of relying on the electorate to be complicit in such cunning plans, especially mid term.

    I would be much more ready to accept good old fashioned incompetence as the reason. While they told us pre election that were going to ‘hit the ground running’, that they were ‘the best prepared government in waiting ever’ and they ‘had learned the lessons of Blair’s first term’, their actual record on the techniques and practicalities of policy delivery has been, in the main, probably the most hapless and ineffective we have seen from any government since the last days of John Major and the ‘Cones Hotline’.

    I’m trying not to be partisan here, and I’m making no comment here on the political rights and wrongs of what they want to do, but on pretty much everything from NHS reform to budget announcements, forest sell offs to badger culls and PCC elections, there really can’t be much argument that they’ve really struggled to enact a smoothly operating government.

    The detail of policy delivery really does seem beyond them, and many observers have suggested that this comes down to Cameron and his dislike of detail and central strategic control.

  5. If Cameron’s Government really had learned from Blair, they wouldn’t have hired Coulson as some sort of Man of the People propagandist. Compare him to Alistair Campbell (and Osborne to Brown as Chancellor or Mandelson as strategist). And finally compare Cameron to Blair.

    Declaring war on the Civil Service from day 1 meant that they were never disposed to hear wider counsel on policy, either.

    I am not a big fan of Blair’s, but you can’t argue with his Government’s competence.

  6. The Tories have nicked Dyfed-Powys PCC…that looks quite a result at first sight.

  7. DYFED-POWYS
    (First Count)
    Christopher Salmon (C) 32,887 (50.86%)
    Christine Gwyther (Lab) 31,773 (49.14%)

    Turnout a measly 16.38%

    But a shock win for the blues anyway.

  8. @NickP

    Indeed. But now watch as any comment that Tories have made about union election turnout is thrown back in their faces. I really hope for his(? I assume) sake he hasn’t made such a comment himself…

  9. Michael

    Not as far as we know, speculation about Tim farron is just that, but clegg must resign soon. Mustn’t he?

  10. Richard,

    He must be he will not. :)

  11. Recount over second place in Corby methinks?

  12. On a less important note, Scottish Labour will be demanding an immediate Holyrood election after today’s cross-break:

    Con: 11%
    Lab: 64%
    Lib: 2%
    SNP: 19%

    Holyrood prediction:

    Lab: 92 (+55)
    SNP: 24 (-45)
    Con: 11 (-4)
    Lib: 1 (-4)
    Green: 0 (-2)
    Others: 1 (n/c)

    Westminster:

    Lab: 56 (+15)
    SNP: 2 (-4)
    Lib: 1 (-10)
    Con 0 (-1)

    Outlier? :)

  13. The only ballot which achieved more than 30% turnout was Corby.

    Labour took 17,267 votes, in a 12.67% swing from the Conservatives, who took 9,476, which if repeated a general election would give the party a 100 seat majority.

    Has to be a decent result only Grant Shapps could pretend it wasn’t

  14. Have to say I don’t entirely share peter kelners analysis.

    Hes right in that the movement in the polls has been between tory and UKIP and lab and lib dem – rather than between labour and tory.

    I agree that the UKIP vote will drift back to the tories.

    But I dont think the drift back from labour to the lib dems will be anything like as big.

    Why? Because the lib dem poll rating crashed spectacularly immediately after they went into the coalition – bottoming out at 10% within 6 six months where it has remained ever since. This is not a gradual disillusionment with the party in government – that suggests angry voters who feel betrayed. I cant see many of these voters returning to the lib dems. A change in leader may being an improvement – but a continuation of the coalition would likely erode that. The only way they can make a decent recovery is to kick out clegg and bring down the coaltion – forcing a general election.

    But I have seen absolutley no sign that the lib dems are going to do that.There have been mutterings about Clegg – but nothing more – and they are running out of time.

    Another factor is that the lib dem base is being wiped out on the ground – every year they are being slaughtered in the council elections losing councilors hand over fist. By 2015 their organisation on the ground will be far far weaker than it was in 2010 and they will seriously struggle to fund a campaign.

    Remember, elections are essentially reverse beauty contest. you vote for the least repulsive party. At the next election, the 50% of the voters who always find the tories the ugliest candidate will have a choice between lib dems and labour as to who is the least repulsive. Unless Labour get it very wrong (IMO that would be by apeing Tory policies) than labour will be the more popular choice as the lib dems credibility as a left of centre party is irrepairably damaged in the eyes of these voters.

    The UKIP vote is – however – classic protest vote stuff. Fear of a labour government will drive many of them back to the tories – but UKIP will still do better than in 2010.

    Now of course we probably have a long time to go until the next election – but the parties are planing their campaigns and policies now.

    With this in mind – do we have any sign that Labour are going to concentrate on retaining their lib dem voters? Where is the research into these voters behaviour? What makes them ‘tick; politically

    My fear is that they are going to repeat the same tactics of Blair – tack rightwards, concentrating on capturing the tory swing voters – but this risks alienating all those former lib dem voters (and the greens and scots and welsh Nats). IMO if they were going to repeat the Blair strategy – they should have gone with Dave M. But Ed is more attractive (or rather – less repulsive) to the left of centre voters who I feel are the key to the next election.

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