This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. The ten point Labour lead is right back to normal after what looks like an obvious outlier yesterday.

Meanwhile the weekly poll from TNS BMRB also has a ten point lead and shows no significant move from a week ago. Topline voting intentions are CON 31% (nc), LAB 41% (-1), LDEM 9% (nc), UKIP 9% (+1).


79 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. No its not that. I have noticed that after I looked for a micro fleece ads for that turned up a lot.

    I can only assume that the mature ladies dating thing is aimed at this site generally and based on the premise that only sad, lonely ole gits would bother posting.
    No idea why they’d think that of course.

  2. Ok so it seems that gilts are paid back on their maturity dates, wtih the money going back on the BOE accounts. In the meantimes GO wants the interest earned for the Treasury. So MK was only talking about not selling the gilts before their maturity dates ?

    I suppose that the BOE in issuing the money for the QE would have to balance their books over a period, so they will get back the £375bn. The Treasury are just depriving the BOE of the interest.

    If this is how it works, then issue some more QE and deal with the consequences of falling value of pensions.

    At some point I hope that someone independent looks at the affects of QE and provides a report in a format that most people can understand. Personally I am a little confused as to whether in say 20/30 years, I will look back and say it was a good thing.

  3. @ Nick P

    That’s not the problem with QE, not even the returning of the gilts (it meant to be absorbed by the growing economy). The problem is that neither the BoE nor the Treasury has any control on the “real” value of the money created or how the money is spent.

    In my view, most of the QE is spent on replacing commercial debt and in this way it is a useful instrument. However, it will do nothing to economic growth.

    From today’s forecast there are two possible scenarios and all depend on the political influence by the Treasury (and Cameron). I cannot exclude the possibility of some monetary tightening from spring 2013. It could have horrific effects in short (1-2 years) term, so if the political influence could obstruct it, it won’t happen then. So this leaves the current one: incapable monetary policy that maintains debt servicing between the enterprise and private sector and the banks. Real recovery postponed to year….??? – can’t even guess it.

  4. paulcroft

    No its not that. I have noticed that after I looked for a micro fleece ads for that turned up a lot.

    I can only assume that the mature ladies dating thing is aimed at this site generally and based on the premise that only sad, lonely ole gits would bother posting.
    No idea why they’d think that of course.

    _____________________________

    Haha, well if one frequents babyboomer sanctuaries, such things are to be expected I suppose. I keep getting ads for retirement investments. Which, being as they seem likely to keep moving the retirement age towards infinity for the rest of us, seems a trifle moot…

  5. “Have you any evidence that the Civil Service obstructs Government policy?”

    Of course not. A working, efficient (in the terms they make for themselves) civil service is one where evidence would not be allowed. :)

    Nick…you’re not with the civil service are you? I ask, as I got an impression your are/were and it would help to give balance to your arguments.

  6. @R Huckle

    Tom Bradby is the best political commentator on UK TV

  7. We believe you Paul. :)

  8. @Colin

    Just for the heck of it, I’m going to disagree with you about the BoE inflation forecasts too.

    I’m sure that the BoE inflation forecasts are generally pretty accurate, in so far as what the BoE believes will happen does by and large happen.

    The problem comes about because they dare not publish those forecasts, and instead have to cobble together some bull to publish for the purpose of trying to manage inflationary expectations down.

  9. Please can you provide the Greens poll data as well. At least they have an MP unlike UKIP

  10. @ R Huckle

    “At some point I hope that someone independent looks at the affects of QE and provides a report in a format that most people can understand.”

    I doubt if such an effect can be reliably separated – even though the BoE made some effect analysis, but they based it on Fisher’s equation, so it is problematic to be polite (essentially they calculated how much the monetary base “should” have contracted [1], calculated inflation, got the GDP figures and voila, they have the effect of the extra money supply (QE).

    Pensions do suffer at the moment because of it, but it’s neither here nor there, except if QE becomes a permanent feature.

    [1] A very large proportion of the monetary base is not under the control of the BoE. This is how Friedman fell for the fallacy of blaming the FED for the 1929-33 crisis.

  11. I always get financial products ads, I have no idea why

  12. Ambi:

    That’s nice: thankyou.

  13. I’m a civil servant.

    Fortunately not in Gove’s Department.

  14. @ RiN

    “I always get financial products ads, I have no idea why”

    It’s enough if you have logged on on line banking in the last three days or so… You will get some.

  15. You can currently get odds of 1/4 on UKIP beating the Lib Dems in Corby tomorrow.

    I find those odds attractive. Although UKIP were only 1% ahead of the LDs in Lord Ashcroft’s last poll, that margin was narrowed by a lot of reallocation back of undecided former LDs from 2010. And with the Conservatives having been all but written off since, there’s huge scope for a 2010 Conservative protest vote for UKIP.

  16. @Phil

    “Guto Harri, former BBC Chief Political Correspondent. Cameron wanted him as his media advisor, Boris Johnson got him as his media advisor,”

    And don’t forget that the Cameron’s current Director of Communications, Craig Oliver, is a former BBC man too. He used to edit the Six O’Clock News.

    My hunch is that there are two things going on here when it comes to right wing hostility to the BBC. Firstly, it’s publicly financed and secondly, its exemplary impartiality is mistaken for bias, so used are they to media outlets cheer-leading for their cause.

    By the way, I was amused with the recent YouGov poll’s findings on the Mail and Express, showing that only 18% of respondents expressed trust in its content. As Chris Lane 45 might say; that’s an awfully high figure, don’t you think? lol

  17. @PaulCroft,

    You’re welcome. :)

  18. Laszlo

    ” Pensions do suffer at the moment because of it, but it’s neither here nor there, except if QE becomes a permanent feature”

    Well Japan has the experience with QE and they just done QE8, so I guess its fair to say that it has a tendency to become a permanent feature. Of course this is really to be expected, QE is the only mechanism that central banks can use to keep rates low, any rise in rates will lead to instant kaboom therefore more and more QE is inevitable and the reversal of previous rounds of QE is impossible. The only way out of this impasse is to allow wages to inflate at the same rate as inflation or more, but that’s ideologically unacceptable.

  19. R HUCKLE

    @”So MK was only talking about not selling the gilts before their maturity dates ?”

    Nope-he didn’t say that.
    He said they would be sold when the additional liquidity BoE created by their purchase, needs to be withdrawn

    @”Personally I am a little confused as to whether in say 20/30 years, I will look back and say it was a good thing”

    I think the best you can say at present is-It has crucified savers & annuity buyers & may have helped borrowers.

  20. PHIL

    @”I’m sure that the BoE inflation forecasts are generally pretty accurate, in so far as what the BoE believes will happen does by and large happen.”

    Check their record.

    They have been consistently wrong.

  21. @ RiN

    A lot of things are ideologically unacceptable at the moment – and yes, inflation, especially wage inflation, is one of them (although I really don’t see any other solution to the debt problem). It would be quite a challenge to overcome the resistance of some political groupings, technocratic layers and the general suspicion of the public.

    I am quite convinced that the BoE is thinking of tightening monetary policy (if they are allowed) exactly for the reasons you mentioned – they do not want to follow the Japanese example although Japan is a special case in a way as they have used money printing since the 1950s, but it seems that the economy has stopped responding to it (what a surprise).

    I find it fascinating, by the way that BoE says that QE added about 2% growth – no, it didn’t. It might (!) have obstructed another 2% drop. It is not for pedantry, but for the clarity of the narrative.

  22. @Colin

    I happened to be agreeing with you, but you didn’t get it.

  23. PHIL

    OK—–so you’re saying they got it right-but never published those forecasts, but published the ones which turned out to be wide of the mark.

    ……right !

    You might be interested in this :-

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9649690/Bank-of-England-admits-its-forecasts-are-worse-than-peers.html

  24. crossbat11

    My hunch is that there are two things going on here when it comes to right wing hostility to the BBC. Firstly, it’s publicly financed and secondly, its exemplary impartiality is mistaken for bias, so used are they to media outlets cheer-leading for their cause.

    _________________________________

    Given the scale of the meltdown in neolib economic approaches, as evidenced both by the crash and the more recent double dip, they’re getting off lightly really…

  25. RiN

    @”The only way out of this impasse is to allow wages to inflate at the same rate as inflation or more, but that’s ideologically unacceptable.”

    Actually the gap has shrunk dramatically over the last 12 months:-

    CPI Sept 2012 vs 2011 + 2.2%

    Total Pay Sept 2012 vs 2011 + 1.8%

    ONS

  26. Loathe as I am etc, etc, if the BBC is left-wing why are the schedules jam-packed with shows about auctions, home buying, antiques and lotteries and there has never, ever, ever been a programme, let alone a series, aimed at Britain’s millions of trade unionists?

    Just wondering what exactly is holding back this left-wing nest from actually showing any programmes of that sort.

  27. MikeMS:

    you must have been watching footy when programmes like “How to Run Your Own Trade Union” and some if the excellent inter-Union game shows have been on.

    They’ve been great fun.

  28. Paul Croft

    Adversarial?

    Two swords lengths apart (though they aren’t allowed to take their swords with them and must leave them on the red belt provided.

    Crossbat

    In 1945 there was no incumbent government.

    carfrew @ colin

    “However , how to bridge the gap between the effectiveness of MPs on SCs and the eternal disappointment of MPs in Government?”

    As The Gannet explained to me: a unicameral parliament with effective pre-legislative scrutiny by a cross party committee with the power to demand ministers to appear in person gives backbenchers “a proper job”.

    It also gives them something to be judged on by their constituents. I have seen the Rural affairs commitee quiz Academics by the half dozen, followed by interested parties on all sides, and have been impressed just how knowledgable they were and the richness of technical language they used.

    Here’s the thing: mostly these people understand what they are talking about. A lot of them have had jobs outside politics, law and journalism. Many have a degree and often also an unrelated professional career. A lot of them are drawn from the section of the population that sits down to pee.

  29. @”A lot of them are drawn from the section of the population that sits down to pee.”

    Bloody Old Etonians again eh ?

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