The US elections are over, so back to domestic concerns. The weekly TNS BMRB voting intention poll is out and shows very little movement from last week, topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%. Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline voting intentions of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. The Labour lead is at the bottom end of YouGov’s normal range, but it is probably just normal sample variation.

183 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. Colin

    I see. So he was given a list of people, some or all he knows to be gay?

    One assumes. Still a bit of a jump to call a child abuse investigation a witch hunt against gays. At least one of the most named suspects isn’t commonly known to be gay anyway.

  2. ……the point being Schofield got those names from online blogs & did not question whether there was any validity in the accusations made against them.

    If people like Schofield & Watson are not very careful, they will do what Theresa May warned against in HoC , when announcing the new investigations-prejudice the legal process of apprehending the actual perpetrators of these crimes & locking them up.

  3. @Allan Christie

    “Those who didn’t vote Tory by ethnic origin at the last UK election

    Scottish 90%

    Welsh 85%

    NI 80%

    English 64%”

    In the interest of balance and the spirit of non-partisanship…

    Those who didn’t vote SNP by ethnic origin at the last UK election

    Scottish 80.1%

    Welsh 100%

    NI 100%

    English 100%

    Hope that cheers you up. :)

  4. Statgeek @Allan Christie

    Both of you are talking mince (that Allan started it is no excuse!)

    Where people live, and which electoral roll they are on is nothing to do with “ethnic origin”.

  5. I’m trying to find a comprehensive list of Huffington Post’s pollster pre-election predictions for each of the states. I can only find 32 of the states on their website. Does anyone know where the full list can be found?

  6. NICK

    We already have the most unfortunate example of Steven Messham’s allegations being questioned by someone involved in the original enquiry.
    Indeed Aaronovitch questions them too in today’s Times, by reference to a journalist who covered the case.

    This has to stop.

    We have the new enquiries & Police investigations.

    Let them get on with it in a measured fashion.

    As Aaronovitch says we do not want to hear ” I saw Goody Osburn with the Devil” cited as evidence.

  7. I agree that Schofield’s stunt was stupid. But the “gay witch hunt” response was even stupider. Because being gay has nothing to do with the issue at all.

  8. “I assume that the response was informed by the names on the list which Schofield thrust under DC’s nose”

    Are we then to presume DC knows the sexual orientation of so many current and former ministers etc?


  9. @Colin – “As DC said-the Police are the agency to deal with allegations of criminal behaviour.”

    One of the problems of this whole affair is the fact that members of the police were allegedly involved as well, both in terms of the actual abuse and also in the failure to investigate fully when accusations were made. This makes the role of the police potentially a lot more troublesome than in the Saville affair.

    I am frankly somewhat surprised that Cameron has not announced a complete and full inquiry into this, with the broadest possible remit, as there are so many strands to this that any restriction on the terms of reference, as with the original inquiry, risks a further missed opportunity.

    I also agree that Phil Schofield’s approach was crass, and also that Cameron’s response of linking gayness to the scandal was also an error, albeit an understandable slip as the story has focused on a boys home.

    The whole thing is a complete mess, but if we are to learn the lessons from the Saville debacle, the first priority must be to provide sufficient assurance to potential victims that they should not be frightened to come forward. My strong suspicion is that, if this can be achieved, we will start to witness a shocking flood of allegations, and the defensive walls that seem to have been erected by the alleged perpetrators will rapidly collapse.


    Cheers for that. It doesn’t look good for the SNP though!! I blame the Latino vote. ;)

  11. Mitz –’s final pre-election model is still up online here:

    As ever, can we try to avoid discussion on the whole abuse scandal thing, people have been very well behaved so far, but it doesn’t take much to fall into either libel or partisan conspiracy theory/wishful thinking. Let’s limit it to polling about it please of which, so far, there really hasn’t been any apart from stuff on Jimmy Savile and the BBC.

  12. OLDNAT

    Where your sense of humor lol ;)

  13. Alec

    “My strong suspicion is that, if this can be achieved, we will start to witness a shocking flood of allegations, and the defensive walls that seem to have been erected by the alleged perpetrators will rapidly collapse.”

    That’s the point. The publication of allegations Savile effectively launched an avalanche of revelations that gave us the truth. The lockdown that prevents publication of suspects’ names may well be stopping people coming forward.

    It’s a fine line to judge, but if we are going to trust the (alleged) victims we need to let the names out. No witch hunt, just proper investigation.

  14. Sorry to go back to the US election but this notion that the USA is somehow a divided country?? Is this just a phenomenon whenever a Democrat wins the White House?

    If I heard right then one US Network reported that the last two election where the Republicans won they were actually behind in the popular vote.

    I can’t min hearing too much about this!!

  15. Thanks Anthony – watch this space…

  16. Allan Christie

    Must have been dulled by reading spoof news sites! :-)

    Like this one

    Imagine anyone believing that an English Labour controlled authority would be the first to privatise children’s services!


  17. brilliant point allan christie if romney had won the “america is divided ” whining wouldn’t have been heard.

  18. OLDNAT

    I think that site was a Halloween prank. No way would any local authority privatise children’s services. Not even a Nanny looking after a spoilt brat in an up market Chelsea address would entertain this.;)

    I did giggle though..Labour controlled authority privatises children’s services ha ha whatever next.

  19. @Paul – “brilliant point allan christie if romney had won the “america is divided ” whining wouldn’t have been heard.”

    I would strongly disagree with that. My recollection is clear and that is that we have heard the refrain regarding a strongly divided nation at every recent presidential election, including the two Bush victories.

    It isn’t whining – it’s a simple statement of fact. There really are two broad views of what America’s future is, the split is very real, and finely balanced numerically, although demographic change is beginning to tilt this against the more radical Republican world view.

  20. paul

    brilliant point allan christie if romney had won the “america is divided ” whining wouldn’t have been heard

    Guaranteed. :)

  21. ALEC

    When Dubya won the White House the mass hysteria regarding a “divided nation” was almost in mute mode on both sides of the pond.

    Better watch out though, they nasty Republicans are bad for your Green credentials!! ;)

  22. @Oldnat – if you haad bothered to read the article, you would have discovered that iMpower is a management consultancy and they are working alongside the existing children’s service.

    The service has not been privatised. Cheap shot.

  23. OK, here’s what I have found:

    Three poll analysts – Nate Silver at 538, Simon Jackman at the Huffington Post’s Pollster and Dean Linzer at Votamatic – correctly predicted that Obama would win 332 Electoral College Votes – in other words, they called all 50 states and D.C. right. This is impressive. A fourth, Simon Wang at Princeton, also got it right but I think he essentially used Pollster’s data and used them to make a probability forecast (perfectly willing to be corrected on this point, but on his website the ‘data’ link takes you back to Pollster). He was the most bullish of all, saying it was a near statistical certainty that Obama would win.

    All three analysts produced very close figures, but which was the best of the best?

    538 was closest on the average score for both Democrat and GOP voting percentages, but Votamatic was the closest for the average margin of victory:

    538: Dem +0.32; GOP +0.51; MOV GOP +0.19
    Pollster: Dem -1.63; GOP -1.26; MOV GOP +0.36
    Votamatic: Dem +0.932; GOP +0.874; MOV Dem +0.058

    Where they did slightly less well, the same safe states came up repeatedly – the predictions furthest from the mark for all three analysts were places like West Virginia and Hawaii – rock solid for either GOP or Dem and so very lightly polled. I think we can forgive them.

    But perhaps the most telling scores were the number of states with margin of victory percentages called very close to the actual result.

    Pollster called 18 states within 2.5% of the actual result and 34 within 5%.
    Votamatic called 25 states within 2.5% and 40 within 5%.
    But the winner is Nate Silver: 538 called 31 states within 2.5% and a whopping 44 states within 5%.

  24. Good Afternoon All.

    I agree with you; there will be a flood of allegations eventually; the dam of silence will break.

    Yes, the divided USA theme reminds me of 1945: ‘They have elected a Labour Government, the country won’t stand for it’

  25. @ Old Nat

    From iMPower’s (change management dedicated to the Public Sector) website:

    iMPOWER ran a fringe event at the Scottish National Party (SNP) annual conference in Perth last Thursday. We rather grandly called the session “The Future of Local Government in Scotland”, and we were quite pleased with how it went: it was reasonably well-attended and there was a lively discussion among attendees..

    ..Indeed, right now we are seeing some of the most profound changes to local government in Scotland in 20 or so years: Health & Social Care integration represents a big change to the way we deliver local public services here; as do significant enhancements to Community Planning Partnerships and structural reform of Police & Fire Services. But these have been largely driven by the Scottish Government rather than local authorities themselves.

  26. @Mitz

    If I remember a post of yours prior to the election you were pretty close yourself,

  27. Only because I have been worshipping at the alter of Nate!

  28. Gah! *altar*

  29. Going back to an earlier discussion re Schofield showing Cameron an internet list. I have seen the four names all over the internet. When Cameron looked at the list and then mentioned gay, perhaps this was reflecting gossip among Tories. As far as I know, only one of the four is openly gay. Two are now married.

    So I think Cameron perhaps went a bit too far, but actually what he said to Schofield was totally correct. Let the Police investigate properly with the help of relevant child protection officers. There is also a judge leading an inquiry.

  30. “Divided nation”
    Not sure I am best qualified to discuss this on any basis of fact behind the arguments on this thread, but on the evidence both of the long-term dereliction of black areas of Washington and New Jersey where I’ve worked over the years, of class and race factors in unemployment and the prison population (in the UK as much as in the States) and the stated beliefs, assumptions and influence of the religious right in America, I am sure that it matters, both domistically there and, profoundly, to the rest of the world. Where else does the worst of Romney come from, with its huge, and narrowly avoided, implications for reconciliation on a world stage in approaches to the suffering caused by faith based and dictatorial regimes, or for women’s rights in countries where male domination is supported by spurious reference to doctrinal tracts? Or CIA and SAS support for the creation of the Taliban, history which get lost overnight in a new set of justifications for the brutalities and pretences of current interventions in Asia and the Middle East? Relevant to polling? You bet your damn life it is; not least in judging electoral responses to who in the long term has been likely to reduce conflict and the loss of life and the handicapping of future generations of the kids who get sent to fight the spurious battles of confused, badly educated and bigoted politicians.

  31. They’re thinking of Audrey Hepburn, a cowboy actor who appeared in a lot of American B films in the 50.s and actually DID use union funds, both to decorate his flat AND to buy a police horse, called Pleb, at a knock-down price, and then re-name it Trigger.

    I remember it well from Saturday morning pictures.

  32. blimey……………can’t even post on the right fred

  33. @ Roger Mexico

    “Lavender Sweep is of course a small street in Battersea. Still now at least SoCal knows where he will be staying the next time he visits London.”

    I suppose. I don’t think I’ve spent much time in Battersea but perhaps next time.

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