The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out here. Topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 10%. The figures are pretty typical by the standards of Opinium’s recent polling, with a Labour lead of around ten points and UKIP in third place (Survation and Opinium are the two polling companies that typically put UKIP in third place, Survation is due to their prompting in the main VI question, why Opinium show them higher than other pollsters is unclear).

The only other political poll I am aware of tonight is the YouGov/Sunday Times poll, which normally doesn’t surface until Sunday morning, although ComRes apparently have a poll on racism in football in tomorrow’s Sunday Mirror.


48 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 30, LAB 41, LD 9, UKIP 10”

  1. It’s surely clear now the positive GDP figures have had little/no effect on VI. Maybe just maybe, the labour lead is now solid….??

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  2. EU Budget vote effect for UKIP?

    Cameron can’t keep pretending to be pro and anti-EU

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  3. Reginald Maudling – “EU Budget vote effect for UKIP?”

    Clearly not. Opinium have had UKIP at 10% or more for their last four polls, so their level of support is completely unchanged. You can only compare polls to polls from the same company, otherwise differences are often down to methodology.

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  4. AW – point taken.

    Four successive Opinium polls …- so UKIP support is looking quite solid, bad news for Blues

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  5. Economic news rarely impacts VI meaningfully (except during an actual GE campaign) as the data is reflecting a situation already experienced.
    Underlying poll questions can be affected as was the Economic competence question after the GDP figures came out; it will be interesting to see if the better numbers for the Tories hold, even partially?

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  6. Another poll with x-breaks showing Tory VI holding up best in the SE and East Midlands, and Labour taking the lead in Eastern England and the SW.

    Small numbers of respondents, but the SW picture must be a cause for concern for the LDs. Tories must be hoping that when people express a UKIP VI and a high degree of certainty to vote, it is the latter finding only which persists.

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  7. @BILLY BOB

    In the SW region in 2010,Labour are so far behind LD and Tories that it must be a plus for the Tories as they stand to gain most from a Labour boost in the region

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  8. Thought this was an interesting counterbalance to the tide of criticism currently washing over the BBC in relation to the Savile case: –

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20190426

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  9. @SMukesh

    If an electoral pact made sense for the LDs anywhere or with anywhom, it would be with Labour in the SW. Likewise Tories may inexorably be drawn to biting the bullet wrt UKIP.

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  10. richard in norway

    “….it still might be necessary to leave the EU to save the NHS.”

    I believe that some privatised NHS work has been sub-contracted to a Scottish Health Board.

    Post independence they, or the Scottish NHS as a whole, could contract for the privatised services,and Nicola Sturgeon will be out of a job anyway. Who better to sort it out?

    Where there is a will there is a way.

    That would sh1t the torie’s Fox, No?

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  11. East of England has UKIP on 20%, makes it laughable that only months ago they were ridiculed as a minor wasted vote party. You cannot get to 20% even on a crossbreak without there being something to it. I suspect Tories are getting very nervous about all the upcoming byelections.

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  12. …just had another thought pop into my head. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen UKIP break aboe the high teens in Westminster voting intentions in any crossbreak of any poll before. Anyone know if this is a first?

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  13. Jim

    The East of England sample is even smaller than the Scottish one.

    “Something in it” could just mean that they happened to catch an extra 10-15 Daily Mail readers in East England during their morning ritual of gullibility.

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  14. Billy Bob did I just read that correct? Labour are winning in the SW and East, even though they came 3rd in 2010???

    If I’ve read that correct by any count that’s good news for Labour. I saw David Miliband on Question Time, he was saying how Labour was racked with bad news, scandals, and disasters after 13 years, but the Tories seem to be experiencing all that and more after only 2 and a half. Not to mention a current big scandal going on at the moment which I’m not even sure if we’re allowed to mention such scandal existing (if not then just snip the bit re: current scandal)

    As for America, I’m 99% confident of an Obama win now, the only hope for Romney is if Ohio’s polls are wrong similar to Uk 92, and that NH has a sudden shift and goes for their favourite son (in the primaries he convinced New Hampshire, that he’s from New Hampshire and I think they still believe it.) If that were true, Romney would get exactly the 270 he needs. So basically, even then he’d only just scrape it by the skin of his teeth.270 really is a best case, little too optimistic scenario.

    Good news for the Democrats, and good news for my bank account. (which hasn’t had much good news as of late)

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  15. @CrossBat11

    Just watched a BBC reporter in New York moan aboiut the marathon being cancelled in a place without running water , petrol or electricity. Her main gripe was how much she’d spent on air fares.

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  16. WOLF

    If it was a BBC reporter, presumably we paid for her air fare?

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  17. @MITM

    As you say, Ohio is a necessary but far from sufficient win for Romney. But on the latest polls (1-2/11/12) as per 538, he’s between 2 and 6% behind Obama there.

    538 now predicts Obana will win over 300ECVs

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  18. Here’s a graphic showing the various routes to 270 electoral college votes: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

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  19. How does 538 predict over 300 EC votes for Obama? It’s not impossible by any stretch, but I just can’t seem to make the numbers add up. If you give Obama, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire that still only makes 290.

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  20. @MITM

    Virginia (13 ECV). Obama currently about 2-5% ahead in latest polls. Although the 538 ECV calculator uses a statistical formula of state averages rather than merely totting up “safe” and “leaning” states to Obama,or,Romney. That’s why it currently has Obama on 305.3 ECVs!

    But i’m sure,if,you just add Virginia to your Obama,total of,290, you’ll get 303.

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  21. RAF

    I stopped answering the phone today in North Carolina because of robo calls from campaigns.

    It would have been fun to nonpluss a real person by asking their candidate’s opinion of Scottish Independence. :-)

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  22. @OldNat

    Maybe you should set up a dialer to robo call them with that question :)

    By the way NC is, leaning Romney (2-5% ahead), although there is a marked difference of opinion between pollsters.

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  23. RAF

    :-)

    Interestingly, I heard an example of what Anthony describes as “push polling” today – an (almost) civilised version of some nutter’s views on pregnancy, and a largely irrelevant question to which I could vote Yes or No, having been “pushed” that way – unless I was a devotee of human sacrifice.

    (I wouldn’t mind sacrificing some of these people! :-) )

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  24. The Washington Post fully backs Scottish Independence. ;)

    On the US election front Obama should make issue of the fact that Romney was calling Russia the greatest geopolitical threat to America yet his son is over in Moscow doing trade deals.

    That might bring them wobbly states such as Ohio into line!!

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  25. @OldNat

    For example to you take the last three NC polls you get the following unclear picture:

    29/10 – Survey USA – Romney +5
    30/10 – High Point University – Romney+1
    31/10 – PPP – Tie

    Infortunate, I can’t locate the last polls from these pollsters to check for trends, but what the three polls above do show at least show is a level of disagreement outside MoE.

    There’s also a Rasmussen poll from 25/10 which gives Romney a 6 point lead, but we know about the Rasmussen polls showing higher Romney leads (typically).

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  26. RAF

    Makes no difference in this house – since Greens aren’t “official” write in here, voting Green can’t push towards the 5% needed for inclusion in future Presidential debates.

    Obama gets the votes, I believe – certainly not Romney!

    Other votes will be largely non-partisan – voting against the most awful candidate.

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  27. @Glenghis

    Thanks for that. I think it’s even simpler though.

    If Romney wins Ohio, then he’ll very likely win overall because it’s the toughest nut for him to crack. That is, he’ll have done enough to also expect to win Florida and Virginia plus one of the smaller swing states (take your pick from Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado).

    Likewise, if Obama wins Ohio, then he’ll very likely win overall, because he’ll have done enough to expect to win Wisconsin easily and also deny Romney at least one of Nevada, Iowa or Colorado.

    So it comes down to Ohio. Obama’s ahead there, but by an average of just 3% in the most recent polls.That’s a far from decisive margin and it’s easily within the parameters of systematic errors in the polls.

    BTW Electoral Calculus here currently calculate the chances of a Labour outright majority at the next GE at 84%. To quote them “The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.” So that’s settled then. And by coincidence it’s identical to the chances that 538 currently give to an Obama victory. So I trust that some on this site are now either prepared to make equally confident predictions of the outcome here in 2015 or otherwise accept that at least some of these prediction models may not be quite as definitive as their inventors would like to have us believe.

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  28. PHIL

    There is just the teensiest difference between pollsters in the USA predicting the outcome at the very end of a campaign, and the situation in GB with a Westminster election two and a half years away, with the euro elections and a referendum before then.

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  29. @Old Nat

    The problem is that those same USA pundits were also willing to make predictions about the same election to 1 decimal place far earlier than the very end of the campaign. Had they confined such predictions to the last few weeks, I’d be more inclined to unquestioningly accept what they say now.

    Personally, if I could bring myself to do it (which I couldn’t), I’d accept odds of 5/1 offered on Romney but not 3/1.

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  30. @ Old Nat

    “Makes no difference in this house – since Greens aren’t “official” write in here, voting Green can’t push towards the 5% needed for inclusion in future Presidential debates.

    Obama gets the votes, I believe – certainly not Romney!

    Other votes will be largely non-partisan – voting against the most awful candidate.”

    Well, I’m hopeful Obama will get the votes. If Charlie Crist, Colin Powell, and Michael Bloomberg can’t move them, I don’t know that I can. It’s important to work for every last vote though.

    Do they really see their votes as voting for the least awful candidate? Maybe your family members should consider running for office. :)

    “It would have been fun to nonpluss a real person by asking their candidate’s opinion of Scottish Independence.”

    Lol. Maybe you’ll get a knock on the door tommorrow and you can educate some canvasser. Though it’s unlikely that you will get canvassed at this point. You might get called by a live person (though that’s unlikely too). Btw, I don’t think robocalls work very well. I think they just annoy people.

    @ RAF

    I’m waiting for the PPP poll of NC. I think there may be one tommorrow night. Their Wisconsin poll today showed a close race but a major shift in Independents towards Obama. This is similar to their national tracking poll where Obama has taken a 50-47 lead (don’t know if it lasts).

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  31. Don’t understand the Mail’s agenda re Cameron: publishing private texts and trying to make them sound “salacious” just feels wrong to me.

    We’ll end with a situation where nobody will dare go into public life. I wonder if that’s what we really want?

    Still, we’ll still have the Mail and the Express and the Sun to cheer us all up.

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  32. Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 2 – 4th November – CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 7%; APP -28

    Proof. At the weekend the polls favour Con. Maybe they should hold general elections at the weekend?

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  33. The difference between fieldwork on different days of the week is minimal.

    The average Conservative score in all YouGov polls this year is 34.46%. The average Conservative score in YouGov poll conducted Thurs-Friday for the Sunday Times is 34.39%

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  34. Stop trying to confound me with facts. I know what I know.

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  35. There is a slight difference for Labour – overall average 42.2%, Friday average 41.8%. Still less than half a percentage point though – the bigger difference you’ve seen in the last fortnight is pure co-incidence.

    (I’m not sure why people are so keen to jump to the conclusion that the Sunday Times polls are different to other ones on flimsy evidence. There is no reason to think there should be – the fieldwork is done on normal weekdays. If there was going to be an unusual poll it would be the Monday one where fieldwork is partially on a Sunday)

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  36. YouGov
    Net Approval:
    Cameron -19 (-3)
    Miliband -23 (-7)
    Clegg -53 (nc)

    Coalition managing the economy?
    Well – 33 (-3)
    Badly – 58 (+3)

    State of the economy?
    Good – 7 (-2)
    Bad – 68 (+4)

    Cameron –
    In/Out of touch –
    In touch – 24 (+1)
    Out – 67 (nc)

    Strong or weak?
    Strong – 37 (+4)
    Weak – 48 (-3)

    Likeable or dislikeable?
    Likeable – 43 (+2)
    Dislikeable – 45 (nc)

    Competent or incompetent?
    Competent – 42 (+5)
    Incompetent – 46 (-3)

    Who would you vote for in the US?
    Obama – 70%
    Romney – 7%
    Wouldn’t vote – 10%
    DK – 12%

    With non-voters & DKs removed –
    Obama – 90%
    Romney – 10%

    Obama has done a good/bad job –
    Good – 76
    Bad – 12
    Net +64
    Unsurprisingly Labour and LibDem voters are more likely to support Obama and think he’s done a good job.
    I’m sure that politicians anywhere would kill for +64 net approval. ;)

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  37. A Labour lead of 7% is just at the lower end of the scale, with 11% appearing to be at the upper end.

    It would interesting what YG would find, if they just polled in the 50 seats that are likely to decide the next election.

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  38. The reason Labour are doing so well in the SW is the upsurge in the opposition to the Tories hated badger cull. People are getting increasingly angry at the Tories assault on our wonderful wildlife. They said they were going to be the greenest government ever but are turning into badger killing, fox hunting monsters.

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  39. Bal buzard

    Do folk really care enough about badgers and foxes to change their vote? I can’t see many folk having it in their top 10 issues, anyone that did would most likely be a green anyway. Although I can see the libdems losing votes on green issues as lots of greens vote tactical for the dems I believe

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  40. For those who think bookmakers and betting odds are the most reliable guides to the outcome of elections (come on, you know who you are!), Bob Worcester, the pollsters pollster, revealed on the Marr show this morning that while the polls are still tight between Romney and Obama, the punters are going overwhelmingly for an Obama win.

    So, according to the US equivalents of Ladbrokes and William Hill, Obama is a shoo-in next week.

    We shall soon find out whether the bookies oracle strikes again! lol

    @Anthony W

    “The average Conservative score in all YouGov polls this year is 34.46%.”

    But aren’t YouGov polls tending to overstate the Tories VI a little in comparison with most other pollsters? I haven’t dived into all the arithmetic, I have to say, but it seems to me that the Tories have been languishing in the very low 30s in most other polls for something like 7 months now. It’s only YouGov, and maybe ICM, who sporadically have them scoring 35 or 36%.

    Incidentally, YouGov may be overstating Labour VI a little too if other pollsters are to be believed.

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  41. Latest Yougov is merely within the MOE around a Labour lead of 10 points or so.

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  42. Crossbat – I did a detailled post on house effects here, YouGov tend to show higher Labour and Conservative scores than average. I think this is a knock on effect of showing the lowest Lib Dem scores and average Others scores (other telephone polls also tend to show low others, online companies tend to show higher).

    Anyway, the difference with YouGov’s Labour scores is higher than their difference with Conservative scores, so the net effect is that YouGov tend to show some the largest Labour leads

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  43. “They said they were going to be the greenest government ever but are turning into badger killing, fox hunting monsters.”

    I wasn’t aware that being ‘green’ involved allowing TB to spread through the cattle.

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  44. @TintedFringe

    Just to clarify. Are your change values on the previous poll or the previous Sunday Times poll?

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  45. Cattle to cattle transmission is the most common cause of the spread of Bovine TB usually caused by illegal cattle movements and swapping ear tags. Badgers are being scapegoated for bad farming practises. 164,770 people have signed an e petition against the badger cull. 31 eminent scientists have said it wont work and in a parliamentary debate the government were defeated by 147 votes to 28 so yes it is a very important issue amongst those of us who care for our wildlife.

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  46. Increased bio security must be employed on cattle farms and unscrupulous illegal practises must be stamped out. Shooting badgers most of which are healthy will not stop the spread of Bovine TB so any government employing this tactic is totally out of touch with reality on this subject and many farmers are now being made aware of this and how we will take direct action to STOP THE CULL if it comes down to it.

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  47. On the American front, I think we can go to bed after Ohio announces. If any of Virginia, Florida, or N.Carolina go to Obama before that, we can go to bed even earlier.

    As for the UK. I don’t really think it’s possible to say with 84% certainty that Labour will win a majority in 2015. I’m not even 84% certain the election will be then and not earlier.

    If there was a vote tomorrow, I’d probably vote Labour, and I’d like to think my vote counts, I’m an undecided independent swing voter in a marginal seat (well it was marginal before 2010 but the Tories got an 11% swing and so now it’s not so marginal). But can I say for certain that I will be voting Labour in 2 and a half years time, not really no. A week is a long time in politics, so 130 weeks must be like an eternity.

    2 and a half years ago, I’d have voted Conservative, now I’d say I’d probably vote Labour, but in another 2 and a half years, my opinion could have changed again.

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  48. Surprised not to see thus Opinium Observer table on this particular thread. (Unless I have missed it)

    Opinium Observer poll has:

    EdM (-12%) leading Dave (-19%) in its approval ratings. Ed still higher than pre-conference when he was net -17%

    Good figures for Ed

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